State legislative elections, 2017
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A total of 40 of the country's 1,972 state senate seats and 180 of the country's 5,411 state house seats are up for a vote. Altogether, 220 (3.0 percent) of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats have regularly scheduled elections. Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia hold elections in odd-numbered years. Legislators in Louisiana and Mississippi are elected to four-year terms, with elections scheduled for 2019.
Across the nation, special elections are frequently conducted to fill vacancies in state legislatures. A total of 27 states use special elections to fill legislative vacancies. In two states, Illinois and Indiana, special elections are used in limited circumstances. The rest of the states fill vacancies either through appointments made by the governor of the state, or by a commission made up of officials from the former member's party. As of February 2017, seven state legislative seats have been filled through special elections and another 21 elections (not including runoffs) have been scheduled in 12 states.
New Jersey
New Jersey's state senators serve four-year terms, except in the first term of a new decade, which only lasts for two years. State assembly members are elected to a two-year term. Legislators in New Jersey are not subject to term limits.
Virginia
Virginia will not hold any state senate elections in 2017.
Virginia's state delegates are elected to a two-year term that begins on the second Wednesday in January after the election.
State legislatures during the Trump presidency
Heading into the 2017 election, the Republican Party is in a position of dominance in state legislatures. Apart from individual special elections held throughout 2017, the November general elections will be the first test of the impact a Donald Trump presidency will have on down ballot races. Up for election in 2017 are the blue chambers of the New Jersey Legislature and the red Virginia state House. Which direction these three chambers move could offer some insight for what to expect in 2018. The 2018 elections will set the stage for the 2020 elections; which will determine which party controls the redistricting process in many states. This process establishes congressional and legislative district lines, which can influence the competitiveness of those elections in favor of one political party or another until the following census in 2030.
Since World War II, the political party of an outgoing two-term president or consecutive political party administration has lost an average of 450 state legislative seats, excluding President Barack Obama. During President Obama's (D) two terms in office, Democrats experienced a net loss of 958 state legislative seats, the largest net loss of state legislative seats in this category since World War II. The second-largest loss occurred following Dwight D. Eisenhower's two terms in office, when Republicans were handed a net loss of 843 state legislative seats. President Ronald Reagan (R) was the only president to increase his party's number of state legislative seats over his two terms in office, gaining six total seats across all 50 state legislatures.[1]
Click here to read more about changes in state legislative seats during the Obama presidency »
What's at stake
Partisan balance
Heading into the 2017 elections, Republicans hold a majority of state legislative chambers. Sixty-eight chambers are under GOP control, while Democrats hold majorities in 31 chambers.[2]
The following table details partisan balance in all 99 chambers.
| Partisan Control of All 99 State Legislatures | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-election | Post-election | ||||
| Legislative Chamber | |
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| State senates | 13 | 37 | |||
| State houses | 18 | 31 | |||
| Total: | 31 | 68 | |||
The following table details partisan balance of all 7,383 state legislative seats.
| Partisan Balance of All 7,383 State Legislative Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-election | Post-election | |||||||
| Legislative Chamber | |
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|
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| State senates | 804 | 1,158 | 10 | |||||
| State houses | 2,339 | 3,047 | 25 | |||||
| Total: | 3,143 | 4,205 | 35 | |||||
State government trifectas
Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia have the opportunity of being competitive races, leaving the possibility of a new trifecta in both states. New Jersey and Virginia are both under divided government heading into the 2017 election. In New Jersey, both legislative chambers are controlled by Democrats and the outgoing Governor Chris Christie (R) is term limited and ineligible to run for re-election. Virginia's Legislature is controlled by Republicans and the outgoing Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) is also prevented from running for re-election due to term limits. It is unlikely that any of the three legislative chambers up for election will see a flip in partisan control.
A trifecta is when one political party holds these three positions in a state's government:
- The governorship
- A majority in the state senate
- A majority in the state house
The concept of the trifecta is important in state lawmaking because in many states, the governor, senate majority leader, and house majority leader play decisive roles in the legislative process.
Heading into the 2017 elections, 31 states are controlled by a trifecta. States with a trifecta include:
6 Democratic trifectas[4]
25 Republican trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "Why Parties Should Hope They Lose the White House," December 1, 2014
- ↑ Although the Nebraska State Senate elects its members in nonpartisan elections, members of the chamber generally function along party lines when it comes to voting and caucusing. Please see Nebraska State Senate partisan affiliation for more information.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Third party incumbents and vacancies
- ↑ Includes Connecticut and Delaware, which have senates controlled by Democrats only through tie-breaking votes.
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