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The Real Fear Is When We All Fear Alike

The danger isn’t so much that investors are wrong, but that they are too uniformly confident in their view

It isn’t what you worry about that hurts your portfolio. It is what you know for sure. Two things most of us think we know for a fact, after years of extraordinary central-bank intervention and miserable growth, are that we will have more extraordinary central-bank intervention and more miserable growth.

Investors have tested the first assumption. Earlier this year, fears rose that central banks were running out of ammunition....

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