India | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for India including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the India economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.46 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.28 4 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 6 6 4.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -8984.29 -13800 -14500 -16200 -14300 -11100 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.50 69 69.2 69.2 69.2 70 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 65.03 64.74 64.08 63.43 62.77 55.58 [+]
Stock Market 32584.35 31400 31100 30800 30500 27000 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.39 6.83 6.9 6.96 7.03 7.77 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.70 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.6 5.7 percent [+]
GDP 2263.52 2340 2500 2500 2500 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 31101.45 32500 34500 33180 34300 40100 INR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 12034713.00 11830552 11785169 11739785 11694401 11344072 INR Tens Of Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 9275.06 9215 9185 9151 9119 11000 INR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 1861.50 2000 2500 2500 2500 3500 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 6092.60 6100 6500 6500 6500 7000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3897.32 5428 4491 3895 3168 4130 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 2339.19 2262 2211 2284 2246 2530 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5131.39 4935 5097 5060 5087 4620 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 859.11 960 971 853 675 925 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 3493.56 3562 3644 3552 3563 3488 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 652.89 620 627 650 644 713 INR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.46 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 29650.00 30240 30312 30385 30457 32200 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 44.85 43.59 43.33 43.08 42.82 40.97 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.50 52.45 51.46 51.79 52.13 55.32 percent [+]
Population 1299.00 1311 1315 1317 1348 1340 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 19735.10 22000 22500 22500 22500 27000 INR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 12109.80 13000 13100 13100 13100 18000 INR/Month [+]
Wages 272.19 322 324 326 328 370 INR/Day [+]
Wages High Skilled 50300.00 54500 57000 60000 47337 87500 INR/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 347.30 400 402 404 408 450 INR/Day [+]
Wages Low Skilled 11900.00 15000 15400 15700 10585 18000 INR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.90 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 13.5 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.28 4 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 135.20 137 138 139 141 158 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 124.60 125 130 130 130 145 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 114.30 114 114 113 113 112 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.60 5.1 4.4 4.1 4.9 5.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 372.00 345 359 372 385 409 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 518.00 531 494 487 480 510 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.25 3 2.5 2.3 2 3.3 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 118.30 122 125 128 130 151 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.97 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.54 0.32 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 6 6 4.75 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.07 6.3 6.33 6.48 6.61 5.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 27364.00 27275 27284 27253 27231 27017 INR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 28225.84 28100 28086 28052 28018 27724 INR Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 129912.80 131030 131684 132070 132288 131983 INR Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 17933.30 17775 17655 17532 17411 16386 INR Billions [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 400297.00 399552 399252 398952 398652 395977 USD Million [+]
Loan Growth 6.90 7.9 7.46 7.75 8.03 7 percent [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 5.75 5.75 5.79 5.85 5.91 6.13 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -8984.29 -13800 -14500 -16200 -14300 -11100 USD Million [+]
Exports 28613.41 25000 24700 24600 25000 28900 USD Million [+]
Imports 37597.70 38800 39200 40800 39300 40000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -14300.00 -4200 -3400 -5000 -7928 -2460 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.70 -1.25 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 percent [+]
External Debt 485800.00 491881 495712 497300 498873 493055 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 71.80 81.14 82.38 83.63 84.88 66 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 8.42 8.22 9.15 7.15 9.73 10.01 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 8579.00 4996 4194 3721 3319 1681 USD Million [+]
Remittances 10097.59 9673 9622 9558 9466 9117 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 724000.00 607600 567100 539000 517000 762000 [+]
Gold Reserves 557.77 551 548 545 542 519 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 744.00 734 732 729 727 710 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 7.48 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.7 [+]
Weapons Sales 42.00 36.21 34.68 33.14 31.61 19.74 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.50 69 69.2 69.2 69.2 70 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -5250.45 -4187 -3787 -3466 -3191 -1220 INR Billion [+]
Government Spending 3910.80 3120 3221 3619 3670 3520 INR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 4254.02 2997 2621 2567 2575 2582 INR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 9504.47 6353 5440 4959 4708 4431 INR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 55630.70 57663 57837 58011 58185 59004 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 64.10 56 56.8 55.9 56.5 59 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.20 52 52.8 51.5 51.8 51.2 [+]
Services PMI 50.70 51 51.9 52 51 51.9 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 4.30 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.9 6.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.10 -0.27 0.46 0.66 0.67 0.87 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.10 2.7 3.5 3.4 5.21 5.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 739.79 719 704 691 679 593 INR Billion [+]
Car Production 256077.00 243826 245318 243726 242974 234146 Units [+]
Car Registrations 276925.00 252739 258087 254945 255169 246979 Cars [+]
Cement Production 21993.00 20869 20442 20154 19918 18704 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.59 4.52 4.61 4.61 4.61 5.51 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 40.00 39 42 44 44 51 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.10 52.9 53 51.4 51.56 51.6 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 39 39 39 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 76 78 78 77 72 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 130.00 129 128 128 128 126 [+]
Steel Production 8474.00 8410 8403 8397 8391 8345 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 4.80 4.3 3.9 5.9 2.5 2.1 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 66.00 68 66.3 64.4 62.73 62 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 128.00 132 139 137 130 133 [+]
Consumer Spending 16804.81 17200 17950 18200 18500 22000 INR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 154965120.00 167133082 169732864 172332647 174932430 231000000 INR Million [+]
Personal Savings 26099.21 27379 27621 27863 28106 29730 INR Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 9.55 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 7.5 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.08 1.02 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.86 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 10.70 10.68 10.64 10.61 10.56 10.16 percent of GDP [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 112.70 118 112 112 119 113 [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 238.00 251 252 254 255 264 Index Points [+]
Construction Output 4.90 3.4 3.9 3.3 2.2 3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]