China | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.95 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 2 2 2.1 2 3.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 284.67 400 450 490 510 350 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 46.7 48.2 48.2 48.7 50.2 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 6.64 6.59 6.53 6.46 6.39 5.66 [+]
Stock Market 3378.75 3320 3280 3250 3210 2850 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.75 3.69 3.72 3.76 3.8 4.2 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.80 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11199.15 11500 12300 12300 12300 13900 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 742352.00 803951 815604 827257 838910 953562 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 318911.50 336451 341422 346394 351366 387422 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6894.50 7090 7400 7400 7400 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14400.90 14520 15300 15300 15300 18450 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 593288.00 796000 200000 420000 592936 890000 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Agriculture 41229.00 65000 8958 21844 41077 71372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 37265.00 49210 8549 22309 37279 48299 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 201736.00 183916 62950 133032 201948 172869 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 313951.00 381926 105017 205306 313464 375336 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 27167.00 33168 8275 17428 27155 32624 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.95 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77603.00 77594 77577 77560 77543 77213 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 976.00 971 969 968 965 949 Tens of Thousands [+]
Labour Costs 104.00 104 105 105 105 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5231000.00 4797640 5263706 5197074 5088842 5040639 [+]
Wages 67569.00 72200 76300 76300 76300 85300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 59470.00 63100 67600 67600 67600 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2300.00 2300 2430 2430 2430 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1381 1382 1384 1385 1400 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 2 2 2.1 2 3.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.4 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.60 102 103 103 104 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.30 103 103 104 104 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.30 2.1 2 2.1 2.1 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 631.21 637 637 636 636 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.90 107 107 108 108 111 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.90 6.3 6.5 5.9 5.2 5.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 102.94 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 106.38 102 101 101 102 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.40 0.8 1 1.1 1.4 3 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 17 17 17 17 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.75 4.66 4.47 4.31 4.19 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6970.00 6840 6845 6835 6824 6729 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 51790.00 52044 52105 52104 52086 51864 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 165570.00 167701 169416 170733 171709 172609 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 349996.56 351575 351976 351927 351691 348259 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1270.00 988 890 819 768 637 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3108510.00 3140150 3158097 3166859 3169483 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 18200.00 14258 12862 11979 11288 9109 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.84 1.98 2.11 2.25 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 13.10 12.5 12.5 12.4 16.03 11.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1173282.59 1204109 1231677 1255648 1276202 1338227 CNY HML [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.7 2.96 percent [+]
Fixed Asset Investment 7.50 7.7 7.6 7.9 7.5 7.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 284.67 400 450 490 510 350 USD HML [+]
Exports 1982.59 1990 2000 2150 2130 2230 USD HML [+]
Imports 1697.92 1590 1550 1660 1620 1880 USD HML [+]
Current Account 508.87 329 330 401 460 370 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2 percent [+]
External Debt 14207.00 18279 18284 18288 18292 21298 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 96.77 99.21 99.86 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 940.13 1250 438 422 423 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -4.49 470 320 -410 220 620 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 100 100 100 100 100 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1842.56 1813 1798 1781 1765 1631 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3944.00 3718 3909 3908 3906 3576 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2123.00 1662 1647 1632 1616 1511 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 5.48 5.34 5.21 5.07 4.44 [+]
Exports to India 5768041.00 5439777 5228841 5113378 5042808 4942595 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 46.7 48.2 48.2 48.7 50.2 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -4 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -298.60 -308 -292 -286 -284 -283 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 187841.00 205613 209003 212393 215784 246574 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 12714.00 12427 12387 12378 12338 11293 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 20246.00 17513 15955 14967 14250 10314 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 225712.60 237221 239693 242166 244638 263723 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 52.40 51.7 50.9 51 51.6 51 [+]
Services PMI 50.60 52.5 52.7 51.9 52.2 52 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.00 51.7 51.3 51.2 50.9 53.4 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.40 54.4 55.27 54 55.51 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.60 6 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.56 0.2 0.54 0.19 0.7 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.10 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
New Orders 54.80 54.3 54.26 54.15 54.08 53.99 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 10815.70 10741 10565 10389 10213 9235 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2709100.00 2477490 2417577 2382451 2351261 2103213 [+]
Car Production 2297200.00 2078916 2027429 1986358 1947617 1671248 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2342600.00 2148380 2070860 2014426 1963043 1619191 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 0 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 percent [+]
Mining Production -3.80 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.2 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.90 57.61 57.9 58.14 58.33 58.97 [+]
Steel Production 74594.00 74493 74347 74182 74015 72540 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.00 4.95 4.99 4.96 4.99 4.97 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 27.00 28 28 28 29 29 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.40 51.4 52 51.7 51.14 52.4 [+]
Cement Production 22140.00 21626 21644 21362 21183 19528 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 4921350.00 3459349 2654914 2160137 1861967 1446152 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 78 79 79 79 87 [+]
Electricity Production 594500.00 575350 568475 567147 566866 558862 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 40 41 41 41 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 79 78 78 78 77 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 114.70 114 113 112 112 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.90 0.6 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.30 10.6 10.4 10 10.93 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 292661.30 318023 324264 330506 336748 389890 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 33616.00 35728 36202 36677 37152 41365 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.4 1.1 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.4 4.46 4.52 4.58 5.06 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 116.60 119 119 119 119 120 [+]
Consumer Credit 297172.35 313994 330335 345998 360960 462638 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.70 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.58 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 45.50 46.09 45.99 45.83 45.64 43.62 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 6.30 7.7 7.6 7.1 6.8 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]