David Schoenfield at ESPN.com looks at the reasons why free agents seem to be staying on the market longer this season. He makes some solid points, from free agents over valuing their talent to clubs preferring younger players at less money. Once reason he leaves out, however, is that the best deals happen at the last minute. That’s true for both sides. So waiting for a deal close to what you want is the best strategy.

Posted by David Pinto at 7:09 pm | Free Agents | Permalink | No Comments

Jason Burke likes what he sees so far after a change at the top of the ownership pyramid in Oakland. New owner Dave Kaval is doing a better job communicating with fans, starting with emails:

First off, it’s from Kaval himself. He begins by talking about what a whirlwind the last month has been for him since he took over, and how his new position is such an honor. It also includes some gentle ribbing of the cross-bay Giants. He then mentions one of the standouts from his office hours, which is a very cool thing that Kaval is getting started. Every Tuesday fans can come in for a couple of hours and just speak their mind, which, if you’re familiar with A’s fans, they will. He then leaves his e-mail address where you can schedule your appointment for a future meeting with him.

He then continues, “One of the best parts of meeting with fans is getting new ideas and putting them into action.” He states that FanFest moving to nearby Jack London Square was actually an idea brought on by one of these fan interactions, so maybe the front office is listening after all.

So far, so good.

Posted by David Pinto at 6:52 pm | Owners | Permalink | No Comments

Howard Cole looks at a potential Dodgers batting order with Brian Dozier at second base. He makes the bold move of batting Joc Pederson leadoff:

Andrew Toles is a better match for the leadoff role (.365 L.A. on base percentage in 2016, .348 lifetime OBP in minors) and more than one of my colleagues expects Dave Roberts to go that route. But I don’t buy the notion that Andre Ethier will see much action in right field going forward, and he shouldn’t. My guess is Ethier gets the nod in left, with Yasiel Puig in right to start the season against all comers, and Toles coming off the bench.

And if that’s how it shakes out — minus a trade for genuine leadoff man Ian Kinsler to play second base — Pederson, with his .349 career OBP, is the guy.

I like that, too. Pederson is a high strikeout, high power hitter, but he also does a great job of getting on base. The strikeouts won’t cost much at the top of the order, as fewer runners will be on base. He’ll lead-off a number of games with home runs as well.

The Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) likes Pederson, too. That’s based on the 2017 Musings Marcels. Note the Marcels rate Yasiel Puig higher than Cole does. At his age, there’s still potential for Puig to be a great hitter.

Posted by David Pinto at 6:48 am | Team Evaluation | Permalink | No Comments

I finally got around to watching The Battered Bastards of Baseball on Netflix Monday night. I would highly recommend it to any baseball fan, or fans of Bing Russell or Kurt Russell. It’s the story of the Portland Mavericks, an independent A-Ball team that replaced the AAA Beavers when they moved north to Washington state. At the time, they were the only independent team in minor league baseball.

One thing that the documentary didn’t explain, however, was why the team did so well in terms of winning games. The narrative of the film is that this group of castoffs, playing for the only independent minor league team in the country, could beat the prospects hand picked by major league clubs. The major leagues must have missed something in releasing this talent. I think the truth is a bit simpler. Many of the Mavericks better players were veteran minor leaguers. They were released but still in or near their primes. Their competition at A Ball was raw talent, players between 18 and 21 years of age. Imagine a AA team getting to play a season against A-Ball talent. That was pretty much the reason for why the team did so well. It wasn’t that MLB didn’t judge the talent correctly, the talent on the Mavericks was simply better due to age and experience.

Nonetheless, the Mavericks made baseball fun again in Portland, so much so that three years later the Beavers moved back. It’s a great piece of baseball history, so watch it when you get the chance.

Posted by David Pinto at 6:38 pm | Films | Permalink | 1 Comment

The Red Sox pretty much let Clay Buchholz go today, trading him to the Phillies for a minor league infielder named Josh Tobias. Tobias played well at A ball the last two seasons, but is old for that level. He will give them some system depth, since Dustin Pedroia‘s health can be variable. I wouldn’t expect to see Tobias in the majors, but if Boston has to start moving second basemen around, he’s a decent player to fill in at a higher level.

Paul Swydan looks at what this means for the Red Sox rotation:

What this leaves the Red Sox is a situation that may not be wholly unique, but is certainly enviable. While the identity of the fifth starter may not be completely clear now or even by Opening Day, the Red Sox now have six starters who are capable of handling a full starter’s workload. Rodriguez figures to be a full-time starter because he has been exclusively a starter in his career, but in Pomeranz and Wright, the Red Sox have two pitchers who have proved to be weapons in both starting and relief roles.

It makes me wonder if the Red Sox start experimenting, playing with a six-man rotation, or using two starters in a game, splitting the innings.

George Stockburger sees the Phillies as having a logjam of pitchers, although many are still developing. I suspect the Phillies are hoping for three good months from Buchholz, and one or two of their minor league pitchers become major league ready. That would allow the Phillies to flip Buchholz to fill some holes while bringing up the future of the rotation.

The Red Sox get rid of a player they don’t need, and the Phillies take a chance on a possible turnaround. There’s not much downside for either club.

Posted by David Pinto at 6:00 pm | Trades | Permalink | 3 Comments

Tom Tango reviews Radial wOBA, but makes an important point about wOBA in general:

But, is that the most interesting thing we can do here? What would you prefer, a hitter’s batting average or the individual components of 1B, 2B, 3B, HR? How about his slugging, or the 4 individual components? How about wOBA or his 4 individual components?

Some people may suggest they’d prefer the wOBA. And that’s certainly possible and understandable. Because sometimes you don’t want to know more. Whenever you present a single number encapsulation of a set of components, the conversation ends. What you will have done is taken a series of data points, merged them into one, and… present it. It just ends there because you can no longer unravel it otherwise.

I like numbers that draw a picture of a player, which is why I prefer slash lines to wOBA. If I want a single number for a player, I’d rather see something like runs created per game or wins above replacement, because to me, those are more useful numbers. If I have nine players and their runs created, I can approximate how many runs a team should score. If I have WAR, I can approximate how many games should win. wOBA does provide a nice measure of the quality of a player, but it’s a black box quality. I want to know how the player gets there.

Back to Radial wOBA for a minute. Add a second radial component, the directional angle, and you have the basis for a good probabilistic range system.

Posted by David Pinto at 6:35 am | Statistics | Permalink | 2 Comments

Kudos to Matt Snyder for debunking the idea that baseball players are overpaid:

By no means do I think that the average fan who feels he’s being priced out shouldn’t complain. Go ahead and complain away. I’m just telling those who wish to complain to remember that the player salaries aren’t the reason. It’s the game’s wild popularity and people’s willingness to pay the huge prices that are pricing you out, not the salaries.

Salaries follow ticket prices, not the other way around. He also makes this point on why we seem obsessed with sports salaries:

How often do you actually see salaries anywhere but in sports? We report on contracts as part of our day-to-day operations as baseball writers, but that doesn’t seem to happen in other industries. Maybe people only complain mostly because these are the only gigantic salary figures they’re seeing on a daily basis and would nail actors/musicians more if they saw it more often?

Of course, actor salaries are tied to particular projects, especially since the demise of the studio system. Plenty of actors get one big paycheck, only to never see another one the rest of their careers. If someone can hang around baseball for three or four years, they are likely set for life.

Posted by David Pinto at 5:52 pm | Salaries | Permalink | 2 Comments

He hasn’t posted in quite a while, so the Soxaholix officially says goodbye. I will miss this creative and amusing baseball blog. Best wishes to Hart Brachen on his future endeavors!

Posted by David Pinto at 10:20 am | Blogs | Permalink | No Comments

I didn’t realize that player agents communicate with field managers. Here’s Jeff Banister on that relationship:

One thing I’ll tell you, being the manager of a team, that relationship with a player needs to stay one direction and that’s about playing the game of baseball. It is a relationship and a growing relationship. It’s not a contract relationship. That’s why you have a front office and a general manager and that’s why agents communicate with them. But there are a number of agents out there that I do talk to and there is an open line of communication with me about their players just because if there’s something going on that a player wants to talk to his agent about and they communicate that to me then I’m okay with that.”

That makes sense. An agent helps smooth out communications. A player might go an agent and rant and rave about a problem. The agent goes to the manager or the GM and explains the problem in a constructive way. Likewise, the manager or GM might rant and rave to the agent about the player, and the agent presents the problems to the player in a more positive light. This is why players and teams avoid arbitration hearings. The team talks the player down in front of the player, which is not pleasant for either side.

Posted by David Pinto at 6:43 am | Uncategorized | Permalink | No Comments

Raising Matt Cain expresses happiness at the Giants are paying the competitive balance tax:

Big payroll, big expectations, wouldn’t you say?

Indeed. If you are paying the competitive balance tax, your team should be good enough to be competitive. Right now, the Yankees, Tigers, and Giants don’t really fit the bill. In the case of the Yankees and Tigers, spending big on players to win now sometimes leaves you holding the bag as those players decline. I’ve heard more than one Yankees fan wish that the boss was still in charge of the Yankees, as he would not have let the team slide this much. He would keep spending to keep winning.

The Yankees tax is equivalent to the salary of a three or four WAR player. That might have been enough to have put them in the playoffs in 2016.

Posted by David Pinto at 8:39 am | Team Evaluation | Permalink | 4 Comments

Rod Carew survived his heart and kidney transplant surgery:

“We are overwhelmed with emotions right now — joy, relief, excitement and especially gratitude for all the doctors and nurses who have been with us at every step in this journey, and to the donor who made this possible,” Carew’s wife, Rhonda, told American Heart Assn. News.

I wish him many more years. It’s also good to know that someone who likely died tragically lives on in Carew.

Posted by David Pinto at 7:51 am | All-Time Greats, Illnesses | Permalink | No Comments

Aroldis Chapman felt he was misused in game six of the World Series. He came on in the seventh inning, the Cubs holding a 7-2 lead. He had thrown 42 pitches two nights earlier in game five.

To Chapman’s credit, he also told reporters he never told Maddon he disagreed with his usage and felt it was his job to be ready whenever the team asked him to pitch. As he should have been. It’s the World Series and teams are going to lean on their top relievers more than ever.

Ask any reliever and they’ll tell you they appreciate knowing their role and exactly when they’ll pitch. Guys like Miller, who are flexible enough to pitch at any point in the game, are very rare. Most are like Chapman and appreciate having a set role. Baseball players are creatures of habit, and when you don’t know when you’re going to enter a game, it disrupts your routine.

I suspect Chapman is complaining now to try to prevent this kind of use in the future.

Posted by David Pinto at 12:44 pm | Pitchers | Permalink | No Comments

Rod Carew undergoes heart transplant surgery sometime today. Here’s wishing him a quick recovery and many healthy years.

Posted by David Pinto at 5:45 pm | All-Time Greats, Illnesses | Permalink | 3 Comments

The 2017 Hall of Fame Tracker is up and running, with Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines doing well in the extremely early public voting. Daniel Marks at Bill James Online does some analysis (subscription required):

The really interesting thing to me is the change in individual votes vs. prior years. For example, one of the things the Tracker does is compare how players have fared with returning voters. Both Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, so far, have gained 5 votes from voters who did not select them a year ago (they also both lost 1 vote from a returning voter).

Among the voters who have changed their minds on Bonds and Clemens, at least one has said that he’s tired of being the “morality police”, and another one referenced the fact that Bud Selig was just named to the Hall of Fame (through the recent “Today’s Game” committee selection), and felt that it was hypocritical to have Selig in the Hall but keep players such as Bonds and Clemens out. I think you’re likely to hear more and more voters express one or both of those sentiments as they continue to comment on their ballot selections.

In any event, I think the early voting on Bonds and Clemens implies that this will be their best years ever on the ballot, and I suspect that they will end up with more than 50% of the vote. I didn’t go quite that high in my contest entry (I had them both in the 47-48% range), but I think this may be the year that they cross over into the “majority” of ballots. That doesn’t mean they’ll get in this year or even before their time is up on the BBWAA ballots, but I do think the tide is turning.

My guess is that there are a number of voters who have wanted to vote for Bonds and Clemens for a long time, and now they have an excuse. If support keeps building this year, more voters might flip quickly, and we might see them race to the top in a couple of years.

Posted by David Pinto at 7:05 am | All-Time Greats | Permalink | 1 Comment

I have to disagree with Steve Contursi a bit about why Jose Bautista remains unsigned:

The reason why free agent Jose Bautista has not been signed has nothing to do with baseball, nothing to do with the fact that he’s 36, and nothing to do with the price tag of $100 million that he pinned on himself. Instead, it’s all about Bautista, or “Joey Bats” as he likes to be called these days.

It’s about him and what’s becoming more obvious every day, that he’s the fingernails on the chalkboard, and a good number of people in baseball are simply tired of his act and want nothing to do with him.

I think it has everything to do with the first three things. In 2016, Bautista missed 1/3 of a season and his OPS dropped 100 points. When that happens to someone in their age 35 season, it may be a sign of a declining career. At this point, some team might pay him like a 1.5 WAR player and hope for the best, maybe $36 million for three years. The $100 million price tag is too much of a risk right now.

Being disliked doesn’t help, but plenty of unlikable players earned big money in baseball. Dan Duquette helped drive Bautista’s price down with his pronouncement that Orioles fans would not like him. If his price gets a lot more reasonable, however, I could see Duquette making an offer for one or two years.

Posted by David Pinto at 7:53 pm | Free Agents | Permalink | 4 Comments

I was very glad to see the vote of the owners to approve the new collective bargaining agreement produced a dissenting vote:

The one nay vote came from Tampa Bay owner Stuart Sternberg, who texted me: “Basically nothing was done to close the huge gap in access to talent. A new approach in the Rule 4 (June) draft would have proved helpful.”

The Rays believe the draft order should be determined by more than just a team’s record. Six times in past eight drafts, AL East powerhouse Boston drafted before its divisional stepchild Tampa Bay.

Bud Selig didn’t like dissent, and would try to get unanimous support from the owners when the group needed to push forward something new. I like this, however. There are other ideas that get squashed, and it’s good to have a public debate. Maybe the draft isn’t as fair as it could be, and putting out ideas allows lots of people, fans, players, front offices, to debate and improve those ideas. Bob Manfred appears to be much more open to putting ideas into the public realm for debate. Now he’s giving the owners a chance to do so, too.

Posted by David Pinto at 7:01 pm | Owners, Union | Permalink | No Comments

Wishes for a quick recovery from testicular cancer go out to Chad Bettis. The Rockies are fairly confident he’ll be ready for spring training:

“You never know with cancer, but as Chad has said, it seems as though the prognosis after his diagnosis is really good,” general manager Jeff Bridich said Tuesday. “Still, in regard to the time frame, we have to be a little fluid with that. But we are just happy that the news has been really positive from the doctors so far. We will figure out the time frame.”

Bettis, 27, had surgery Nov. 29 to have a testicle removed, he told ESPN in a statement late Monday night.

A good friend of mine went through the same thing at about the same age. About 30 years later, he’s still leads a happy and healthy life. I hope the same turns out to be true for Bettis.

Posted by David Pinto at 6:51 am | Illnesses | Permalink | No Comments

Mike Axisa makes a very good point about the post-2018 class of free agents:

You know that monster 2018-19 free agent class everyone is looking forward too? The Bryce Harper/Manny Machado class? The talent pool is already starting to thin out. Andrew McCutchen might not be an elite player anymore. Matt Harvey had surgery to treat Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which is potentially very serious. Dallas Keuchel’s performance slipped big time this summer. Heck, so did Harper’s. And, as uncomfortable as this is to talk about from a baseball perspective, Jose Fernandez died tragically in September. Last offseason, when everyone started to put the pieces together and saw just how talent-laden that 2018-19 free agent class could be, we all know the talent pool would thin out. Guys would sign extensions, others would get hurt, others would see their performance slip. And it’s happening already. I seriously doubt the Yankees or any other team is planning to pursue one specific free agent two years in advance, but I do think the Yankees are hoping to reset their luxury tax rate and have more payroll flexibility for that 2018-19 offseason in case they decide to spend big.

Of course, if only two of those players go to free-agency playing well, they should get a lot more for their services. Large, talented, free-agent cohorts tend to drive down prices.

Posted by David Pinto at 5:29 pm | Free Agents | Permalink | No Comments

Major League Baseball and the Players Association agreed to anti-bullying and anti-hazing rules in the new CBA, and that includes banning forcing rookies to dress as women:

The policy, obtained by The Associated Press, prohibits “requiring, coercing or encouraging” players from “dressing up as women or wearing costumes that may be offensive to individuals based on their race, sex, nationality, age, sexual orientation, gender identify or other characteristic.”

MLB Vice President Paul Mifsud said Monday the new rules resulted partly “in light of social media, which in our view sort of unfortunately publicized a lot of the dressing up of the players … those kind of things which in our view were insensitive and potentially offensive to a number of groups.”

“There’s lots of pictures of baseball players dressed up as Disney princesses,” he said.

I have to admit I’m a bit confused. I thought gender was supposed to be fluid, that if you’re biologically male and but feel like a woman today, you’re a woman. So it strikes me that a big loophole in this rule is that the rookies could all say they identify as women for purposes of the hazing, dress up like princesses, use the woman’s room, etc, and if MLB doesn’t like it, the players can sue for gender discrimination!

What MLB really is worried about is this:

“Although it hasn’t happened, you could sort of see how like someone might even dress up in black face and say, ‘Oh, no, we were just dressing up,'” Mifsud said. “We’ve also understood that a number of players have complained about it.”

I understand it’s sometimes difficult to balance fun and propriety, especially when you are dealing with young adults. I also understand that no players should be forced to participate in these rituals. (See the Jeff Kent comment in the article.) That’s why you have older people, managers, coaches, traveling secretaries, and such who should be able to say to the players, “That’s crossing the line.” Somehow, banning fun never seems to work that well.

Posted by David Pinto at 7:06 am | Owners, Rules, Union | Permalink | 3 Comments

Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner appear to be staying with the Dodgers:

The Dodgers completed a significant portion of their off-season shopping on Monday, reaching an agreement to re-sign Jansen, while approaching the final stages of an agreement with Turner, according to people familiar with the situation, who requested anonymity because neither contract had been finalized.

Jansen spurned a more lucrative offer from the Washington Nationals to stay in Los Angeles with a five-year, $80-million deal. Turner was close to reaching a four-year contract believed to be worth $64 million.

Turner, given his previous three seasons, seems grossly underpaid at $16 million a year. That means the Dodgers expect him to average two WAR a season, when he averaged four WAR over the last three years. I suspect the Dodgers don’t trust a late bloomer to maintain that level very long. Jansen’s contract is right where it should be, and I wonder how much of a discount he gave the Dodgers. The MLBPA used to frown on such things.

Posted by David Pinto at 6:17 pm | Free Agents, Pitchers, Players | Permalink | No Comments

Stephen Strasburg talked about and over-reliance on his slider:

Strasburg thinks adding the cutter/slider contributed to his elbow trouble. Won't eliminate it moving forward, but will not use as much.

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) December 11, 2016

Strasburg said the slider/cutter got him outs early in counts, so he fell in love with it. Arm wasn't accustomed to stress, and reacted.

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) December 11, 2016

Strasburg said he felt he got lazy with the pitch midway through the season, got around it too much, which put stress on the elbow.

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) December 11, 2016

In other words, Strasburg plans to use he cutter/slider less often, because frankly, he doesn't really need to rely on it.

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) December 11, 2016

This is very similar to something Zack Greinke talked about in 2014:

Greinke, being Greinke, was perhaps just self-aware enough to change. He still throws plenty of sliders, but hopes to cap them at 15, maybe 20, per start, thereby balancing his desire to win with the hope to pitch again in five days. Perhaps the ulnar collateral ligament goes a thread at a time, he doesn’t really know, but if so, he was going to budget his threads, and not pitch straight through his elbow by the time he was 30 and then be no good to himself or his team for a year.

The slider is an out pitch. Greinke saves his for when he absolutely, positively needs an out. It looks like Strasburg is moving in that direction.

Posted by David Pinto at 11:45 am | Injuries, Pitchers | Permalink | 1 Comment

The Washington Nationals turned an unhappy Danny Espinosa into two minor league pitchers:

The Los Angeles Angels acquired Danny Espinosa from the Washington Nationals on Saturday night, picking up their new starting second baseman in a trade for two minor league pitchers.

The Angels sent right-handers Austin Adams and Kyle McGowin to the Nationals for Espinosa, who presumably lost his starting job in Washington when the team obtained outfielder Adam Eaton from the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday.

Washington traded three top pitching prospects to Chicago for Eaton, with the intention of shifting NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trea Turner from center field back to shortstop, his natural position.

The Angels get an excellent defender with some pop. He is a bit of an out machine, however, with a career .302 OBP. That’s not a lack of selectivity, as Espinosa walks a good deal, he just doesn’t deliver hits.

Austin Adams will play 2017 as a 30-year-old, with just 58.2 MLB innings under his belt. His high strikeout rate in the minors has not translated to the major leagues. (See correction below.) McGowin is just entering his prime. He gives up a lot of hits as his low BABIP allowed doesn’t make up for his low strikeout rate. He looks like he could be an emergency starter for the Nationals in a pinch.

Basically, the Nationals dumped Espinosa after he didn’t show up at Winter Fest.

Eaton almost certainly bumps Turner back to short, Espinosa to the bench. Espinosa has never been one to bite his tongue about such things. https://t.co/gLNEro0t4h

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) December 11, 2016

Correction: I was looking at the wrong Austin Adams. This is the link to the correct one. This Adams will play 2016 as a 26-year-old. He is a reliever who strikes out and walks a ton of batters. He can afford the walks as he allows very few hits and few home runs. He’ll be an interesting pitcher out of the bullpen. This Adams make it look like the Nationals got more out of the deal than I originally thought.

Posted by David Pinto at 8:22 am | Trades | Permalink | 3 Comments

The Twins lost minor league pitcher Yorman Landa:

The Minnesota Twins say minor league pitcher Yorman Landa has died in Venezuela. He was 22.

The club did not say how he died, but local media reports say it was in a car accident in the state of Miranda.

The Twins said in a statement Saturday they are ”deeply saddened by the heartbreaking loss.”

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Posted by David Pinto at 4:44 pm | Deaths | Permalink | No Comments

I very much like this article by Ryan Fagan about the continued surprise at the amount of money spent on individual player salaries:

Fans of pretty much every team have been doing their best metronome impressions, what with the constant shaking of heads in disbelief as each transaction is announced.

It’s gotten to the point where a deal that could very well be mutually beneficial — the Cubs getting one year of an elite closer (Wade Davis) and the Royals getting four years of a potential star outfielder (Jorge Soler) — seems like a massive win for the Cubs, the team getting the proven star.

Here’s the thing, though: The cost to acquire/pay proven big-league talent ALWAYS seems stunning. Always, always, always.

One nice thing is that he charts how teams used to fall over themselves to give out big contracts:

Look at this headline from the November 23, 1989 edition of The New York Times: “Puckett Hits the Jackpot: First $3 Million Man.”

Seems quaint now, doesn’t it? A measly $3 million per year over three years.

Well, before the start of the 1990 season, five more players owned the record for biggest deal. First, Rickey Henderson signed a four-year, $12 million deal. Then it was Mark Langston ($3.2 million average annual value), then Mark Davis ($3.25 million AAV), then Dave Stewart ($3.5 million AAV) and then Will Clark ($3.75 million AAV). The sky certainly was falling.

Except it wasn’t.

When Puckett signed that deal he was a five-WAR player. So the Twins paid $600,000 per WAR on that contract. That value now is $8 million per WAR, and MLB is likely paying a lot less to players as a percentage of revenue. Teams rarely grossly overpay for free agents any more, although they do give out unnecessary contract extensions from time to time. The money’s there, the money keeps growing, so player salaries go up. We are very close to the first $40 million a year player, and I would not be surprised if we saw an Alex Rodriguez like jump to $50 million a year soon.

Posted by David Pinto at 8:48 am | Salaries | Permalink | 3 Comments

Ken Rosenthal reports on the Dexter Fowler deal with the Cardinals:

Source: Fowler deal with #STLCards: Five years, $82.5M, full no-trade.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2016

The $82.5 million contract seems low to me. I estimate that Fowler should produce about 13 WAR over the next five seasons, which should put his value closer to $104 million. The value of a free-agent WAR is around $8 million this year, but the Cardinals are paying $6.4 million per WAR to Fowler. Could a no-trade clause really be worth $22 million? Maybe there is something else in the deal of value to Fowler.

Josh Brown thinks the Cardinals overpaid.

Posted by David Pinto at 12:13 pm | Free Agents | Permalink | No Comments

Thursday I saw a number of stories complaining about the Aroldis Chapman deal, mostly about the Yankees spending a large percentage of their payroll on a one-inning pitcher.

They can’t take on much salary in a trade either. Paying $17.2M a year for a one-inning pitcher whose usage depends on the rest of the team is something you do when you’re a) ready to win the World Series, or b) operating with a seemingly unlimited payroll. The Yankees are neither at the moment.

Or when you want a young team to win games they should win.

In 1992, Dave Dombrowski, GM of the expansion Marlins drafted closer Bryan Harvey with his 10th pick.

The Rockies’ payroll appeared to be $4 million, less than what the Marlins would pay Bryan Harvey.

Criticism came in quickly for the move. Why were the Marlins, a team that would be bad, drafting a good closer? I’m sorry I’m doing this from memory, but Dombrowski’s said he wanted his team to be able to win close games. It was a psychological move, if you will. He didn’t want to see a group of young players work hard to take a lead into the ninth inning, only to see it disappear. The Marlins led the NL in save percentage that season, and finished five game ahead of the Mets. They were a bad team, but they held leads. Dombrowski wanted to instill some sense of winning in the organization.

Now the Yankees are rebuilding. Chapman will help a young team keep leads late, especially in tandem with Dellin Betances. The Yankees shouldn’t lose many close games in which they have the lead. They will be awarding the youngsters scraping for that extra run or two with wins. Unlike the Marlins of 1993, the Yankees are good enough that a few extra wins might put them in the playoffs, where anything can happen.

Posted by David Pinto at 7:04 am | Management | Permalink | 4 Comments

The Yankees land Aroldis Chapman:

Aroldis Chapman and his triple-digit fastball are heading back to the Bronx, as the left-handed closer has agreed to a five-year, $86 million contract with the Yankees on Wednesday night, a source told MLB.com.

The agreement sets a Major League record for the largest contract ever handed to a relief pitcher. The Yankees have not officially announced the signing, as Chapman must still pass a physical to finalize the deal.

…

“The attraction of him is that we know he can pitch in New York and he doesn’t have a Draft pick attached,” Cashman said prior to the agreement. “So then it just comes down to money and term.”

Chapman can opt-out after three years, and gets a no-trade clause for those three seasons. I’m interested to see if the contract is back-loaded, to see what the Yankees true cost is if Chapman opts out. Even at $86 million, it looks like a good deal. Chapman is a 2.5 WAR a year pitcher, and the Yankees appear to be paying him for 10.5 WAR over five seasons. On top of that, he also secured them a number of prospects from the Cubs. The Yankees investment in a socially damaged Chapman last season seems to have paid off well for the club.

Posted by David Pinto at 6:29 am | Free Agents | Permalink | 1 Comment

The Nationals added Adam Eaton to and the White Sox gained another good pitching prospect as the teams complete a trade that makes Washington very strong up the middle.

The Nationals traded right-handers Lucaas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning for Eaton, 28. Giolito, rated as the top right-handed pitching prospect in baseball at times last season, and Lopez, who cracked the playoff roster with high-90s stuff, showed they were close to major league ready last season. For Dunning, taken No. 29 overall out of the University of Florida, last year was his first of professional ball.

Eaton’s arrival all but ends the Nationals pursuit of McCutchen, whose price was believed to be even steeper than Eaton’s. It also pushes Trea Turner back to shortstop, his natural position.

With the earlier acquisition of Derek Norris, the Nationals are looking strong up the middle. For some reason, Norris’s offense fell apart with the Padres, but a better hitting team might take some pressure off Norris, and a group of selective hitters might influence him positively as well. He’ll play 2017 as a 28-year-old, so he’s still early in his prime.

So the Nationals have Norris catching, Turner at short, Daniel Murphy at second, and Eaton in center. Eaton brings a fine OBP to the team and should work well as a lead-off or number two hitter. I can see an Eaton, Turner, Murphy, Bryce Harper top of the order doing a lot of damage. Plus, with strength up the middle and a good hitter in Anthony Rendon at third, the Nats won’t need to spend much if they need to replace Jayson Werth or Ryan Zimmerman at the corners.

The White Sox are building a very nice, young pitching staff themselves. Giolito has excellent K numbers in the minors, although they did not translate to the majors in his age 21 season. Lopez showed excellent control in the minors which didn’t translate to his rookie season. Dunning was old for his minor league level, but at least he blew batters away. In two years they could be the middle of the White Sox rotation.

Posted by David Pinto at 8:37 pm | Trades | Permalink | 1 Comment

The Royals and Cubs reportedly agreed to a trade to alleviate the congestion in the Cubs outfield:

The Kansas City Royals and Chicago Cubs have agreed to a trade that will send reliever Wade Davis to Chicago in exchange for outfielder Jorge Soler, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Rumors surrounding Davis buzzed up on Tuesday, with Kansas City reportedly set on dealing him and the Nationals also involved in talks.

The 31-year-old two-time All-Star missed a large chunk of last season due to arm problems, but could bolster the bullpen of the defending World Series champion Cubs if healthy.

According to the report, the teams are examining physicals and will announce the deal Wednesday morning.

I’m wondering if rather than spend tons of money on a free-agent closer if they Cubs try to use Davis in the role. If he’s healthy, he is certainly a good option. Soler is an atypical Royals hitter in that he strikes out quite a bit, but also walks a good deal. His ability to get on base is a above average, while his ability to hit for average is just okay. His power is also pretty good. He’s just entering his prime this season, so this could turn out to be a great move for the Royals.

Posted by David Pinto at 7:06 am | Trades | Permalink | 1 Comment

The Red Sox gave up at least four very good prospects in two deals on Tuesday at the winter meetings. The big deal involved four prospects to the White Sox for pitching ace Chris Sale.

In what will probably be the blockbuster deal of the entire offseason, the White Sox sent LHP Chris Sale to Boston this afternoon in exchange for two of the highest-upside prospects in baseball, Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, as well as tools-goof outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and arm-strength lottery ticket Victor Diaz.

The Red Sox also picked up a reliever from the Brewers:

The Red Sox have landed right-handed reliever Tyler Thornburg in exchange for a trio of players: big-league corner infielder Travis Shaw and prospects Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington.

There are very good scouting reports on the young players at the links. Four of them, Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, and Dubon all have high upsides.

Thornburg is a high strikeout pitcher who also produced consistently low BABIPs, so he not only misses bats up appears to produce poor contact. He’s a reliever, however, so everything with him is small sample sizes.

Sale on the other hand, consistently produces WARs around five per season. That worth about $40 million a year, but the Red Sox will pay about $39 million for three years of Sale if they exercise the club options. That’s a lot of potential residual value. That’s probably worth three great prospects, especially because Boston is already an excellent team. This should push them to the top of the AL, not just the AL East.

Of course, this is somewhat short term thinking. When Theo Epstein was with the Red Sox, there was always tension with the higher ups due to Theo wanting to build a team that could win consistently, and the owners wanting to always win now. With the Cubs, Epstein was allowed to build up the farm system that should make the Cubs the team to beat for a while. Boston just traded away pieces that would allow them to get younger and improve over time for a huge improvement right now. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it’s the move of a team that hasn’t won in a long time, while the Red Sox are one of the most successful teams of the 21st Century.

The White Sox are in a position to grow into a power house, especially if they draft well. Maybe in ten years we’ll be arguing about which Chicago team assembled the better dynasty.

Posted by David Pinto at 5:45 pm | Trades | Permalink | 6 Comments