The Marlins gave Edinson Volquez two years and $22 million. Now, I know what you might be thinking: The Marlins might have to issue bigger guarantees in order to convince players to join them. But I don’t know that for sure. What I do know for sure is that Volquez turns 34 next summer. Last season he had a worse-than-average ERA, a worse-than-average FIP, and a worse-than-average xFIP. Those same three things apply, also, to his overall career numbers. Volquez isn’t much. Fifth starter, perhaps.

The Pirates have given Ivan Nova three years and $26 million. Now, I know what you might be thinking: I should add in the modest performance-based incentives. But I just want to deal with the guarantee. Nova turns 30 in a matter of weeks. Last season he had an average ERA, an average FIP, and a better-than-average xFIP. This was supposed to be a terrible offseason to look for free-agent starters, but the Pirates still seem to have gotten something of a deal.

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The Dodgers want Brian Dozier, the Twins terrific second baseman. The Twins, rightfully so, want a lot for an excellent player due just $15 million in total over the next two seasons. Based on public reports, the two sides have agreed that young RHP Jose De Leon would go to Minnesota if a deal gets done, with the current stalemate surrounding what else the Dodgers would have to add to De Leon to get the Twins to make the swap. But while the Twins should obviously extract as much as they can from Andrew Friedman, they’d probably also be wise to not pass up the opportunity to acquire De Leon, since this might be their last chance to get him for a while.

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It’s easy to imagine Andy Green in a front office. The 39-year-old former infielder graduated Summa Cum Laude from the University of Kentucky with a degree in finance, and his verbiage is that of a GM. Often lauded for his communication skills, he’s as analytically savvy as any manager in the game.

His current job is a huge challenge. The Padres are coming off a 94-loss season in Green’s first year at the helm, and the immediate future isn’t much brighter. San Diego has a promising array of a prospects, but the big-league roster is a work-in-progress. He understands that growing pains remain.

Green’s own evolution has been impressive. His smattering of big-league playing time — 140 games over parts of four seasons — was followed by a 12-year stint in the Diamondbacks organization, where he received multiple minor-league manager-of-the-year honors, and was twice named Best Manager Prospect in the Southern League. In 2015, he served as Arizona’s third base coach.

Green shared his thoughts on an array of topics in an impromptu conversation at the Winter Meetings.

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Sometimes, the stuff doesn’t match the production. Pitchers know that, broadcasters know that, coaches know that, and we know that. There are some guys who will sometimes reel off a really incredibly nasty pitch and still get walloped. You know these guys. There’s the fabled Great Stuff of Joe Kelly. There’s Nathan Eovaldi‘s gazillion-mile-per-hour fastball. And, of course, there’s Michael Pineda.

In Pineda’s case, we at least have something of an understanding as to why it hasn’t really all come together. Injuries kept him from throwing a big league pitch between 2011 and 2014. He’s never really been the same. Pineda was great for the Mariners in 2011, but since returning, his results have been that of a back-end starter who does his best to give free souvenirs to the fans in the outfield seats.

However, despite his ERA struggles, ERA estimators love him. Our FIP-based WAR says he was worth +3.2 wins in 2016, tying him with Julio Teheran, J.A. Happ, and Tanner Roark, among others who posted strong seasons by ERA. Pineda’s ERA, though, was 4.82, ranking 67th out of 73 qualified pitchers.

And as a guy who watched a lot of Yankee games this year, I can say with certainty that watching Pineda pitch doesn’t leave one with the impression you’re watching a high-end starter. With all his home runs and loud contact, Pineda doesn’t feel like a frontline pitcher. Is he? Is he not? We’re going to try to explain what his deal is.

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Every full season Mike Trout has put together as a Major League Baseball player has been great. Through his age-24 season, Mike Trout has been worth roughly 48 Wins Above Replacement, averaging around +9.5 wins per season. Through age-24, that is more than any other player, with Ty Cobb a close second, and Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, and Ted Williams a bit further behind. Trout is already in third place through age-25, 10th place through age-26, and 23rd place through age-27 with three seasons to be played before he gets there. Mike Trout is great. Everybody knows that.

But what would happen if Mike Trout had a good year in comparison to, well, Mike Trout?

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Episode 706
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. On this edition of the program, he discusses the merits of Miami’s decision to sign two relievers (Junichi Tazawa, Brad Ziegler); cites the flaws in Colorado’s decision to sign a third (in this case, Mike Dunn); and addresses the awkward situation created by the new CBA regarding Shohei Otani‘s future bonus and inevitable extension.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 40 min play time.)

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Right after the end of the playoffs, we lost August Fagerstrom to a major-league front office. I miss having August around, because he was a good friend and an excellent writer. If there was one complication, though, it was that, shockingly often, we wanted to write about the same things. The same sorts of stuff inspired us, and in this line of work, there’s nothing more precious than a half-decent idea. It would be discouraging to want to do something, and then realize another person already had something along the same lines in progress.

It’s not good to have August gone. Less quality content is less quality content. But if nothing else, I am now freer to pursue what I like. Which means I am now freer to write about Domingo Santana. Used to be, August would carry that torch, and he wrote positive things about him any number of times. Now it’s up to me. Much like August, I consider myself a Domingo Santana fan. And it looks like he could become a crucial piece of the Brewers’ organizational rebuild.

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One of the complaints people make about us for some reason is that we spend too much time talking about how awesome Mike Trout is. I could issue the same complaint about those people in reverse: Clearly, they don’t spend enough time talking or thinking about how awesome Mike Trout is. He’s not just some great player, right? It’s not like you talk about Mike Trout in the same breath as Jose Bautista or Robinson Cano. Last year, Trout was better than the next-best position player by a full WAR. Over the past three years, Trout has been better than the next-best position player by more than 3 WAR. Over the past five years, Trout has been better than the next-best position player by 15 WAR. By 15 WAR! Looking at Steamer projections, over a constant denominator, there’s Trout’s projected WAR, at 7.8. And then there’s Manny Machado, at 5.9.

This is another Mike Trout puff piece, in a way. I like it because it serves a purpose, I like it because it’s simple, and I like it because I got to write the same damn article last spring. The offseason isn’t over, and certain teams are still going to make certain additions. But it’s a near guarantee the following will remain true: Mostly thanks to Trout, the Angels look like they should have the best outfield in the game.

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The holiday season is upon us, and hot stove activity will likely take a pause in the coming days. Here’s one more installment of our position-by-position look at hitter contact quality before the break. Last time it was AL third basemen, and now it’s time for their senior circuit counterparts. As a reminder, we’re utilizing granular exit-speed and launch-angle data to measure how position players “should have” performed in comparison to their actual stat lines.

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If you’ve watched Odubel Herrera in the field over the last two years, you might be surprised to see him rated as a positive by defensive metrics. He can certainly run circles around a ball from time to time, and we’ve all seen that iconic route that saved Cole Hamels‘ no hitter. But if you drill down into Herrera’s defense, it starts to look like he’s the opposite of Derek Jeter, who made the big plays and made us all wonder if the negative defensive numbers were wrong. Because Herrera is fine on the easy plays — it’s those 50/50 plays that lead to the questions about his ability in center.

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Teams have been less than enthusiastic with this year’s class of free-agent starters. Only two pitchers, Rich Hill and Edinson Volquez, have received multi-year contracts. Combined, the years and dollars on their contracts equal the same five years and $70 million that Ian Kennedy received from the Kansas City Royals last year, the eighth-highest contract given to a starting pitcher during the 2015-16 offseason.

There’s good reason for the lack of sizable free-agent contracts for starters this winter: the class isn’t particularly good. While some have already begun looking ahead to the monster class of free agents available after the 2018 campaign — one that includes Bryce Harper, Matt Harvey, Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel, Manny Machado, and David Price — next year’s class should actually be quite strong as well. It might be even stronger than the 2018-19 offseason’s free agents on the pitching side.

The effect of opt-outs in contracts has been rather small thus far. In recent years, Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia both opted out of their contracts and then re-signed with the New York Yankees. Zack Greinke opted out of his contract with the Dodgers last winter and cashed in with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Next winter, we’re going to see the first full-fledged offseason during which opt-outs could loom large.

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After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Most everyone has become comfortable with the fact that Mike Trout (680 PA, 9.0 zWAR) is the world’s best living ballplayer. Merely because one has grown accustomed to his excellence, however, doesn’t preclude one from wanting to have that greatness illustrated periodically. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections facilitate an opportunity to do that. ZiPS, like other projection systems, is inherently conservative. Despite that, Trout is forecast for nine wins. For reference, consider that, since 2011, a player has reached the nine-win threshold on just six occasions. (On four of those occasions, of course, the player in question was Trout himself.) By definition, a nine-win season is an outlier. Nevertheless, Szymborski’s computer has suggested that as the median outcome for Trout in 2017.

Beyond Trout, unfortunately, there’s little reason for enthusiasm here. Kole Calhoun (620, 3.0) and Andrelton Simmons (574, 3.4) offer some promise. Of the remaining six positions on the club’s offensive depth chart, though, five of them are expected to produce only about a win.

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While answering a question in my chat last Friday, I wound up navigating to Billy Butler‘s player page, and then I casually noticed that since he debuted a decade ago, he’s been worth about -9 wins on the bases. In the moment, that didn’t seem like something that was going to stick in my mind, but, here we are. You’re going to get a whole article about this.

Look, everyone knows that Billy Butler isn’t much of a baserunner. Butler certainly knows, which is why he laughs and calls attention to himself whenever he does anything good out there. I’ve written about his baserunning before, and it’s hard to go back to this without feeling like I’m making fun. My intention isn’t to be cruel. It’s just, hey, this is a site where we talk about numbers, and some of his numbers are crazy. Butler built a career around his bat, and he has a lifetime 115 wRC+. That’s great. Very few people on planet Earth could do that over one month, much less 10 years. Yet, as Butler’s bat has provided positive value, his legs have given some of that back. He’s nearly the worst baserunner of all time.

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Earlier today, the Boston Red Sox traded starting pitcher Clay Buchholz to the Phillies in exchange for minor-league infielder Josh Tobias. In so doing, both teams have more or less crystallized their plans for their 2017 starting rotations.

For the Red Sox, this is about nailing down just who will be on the 2017 pitching staff. In his remarks to reporters, Red Sox head honcho Dave Dombrowski made specific mention that he feels the team is done wheeling and dealing for the 2017 squad, save some depth moves. In other words, those who are on the roster right now are the players with which the team expects to move forward. So, who are they? Let’s take a look:

Definite Starting Pitchers:

• Chris Sale
• David Price
• Rick Porcello
• Eduardo Rodriguez

Likely Starting Pitchers:

• Drew Pomeranz
• Steven Wright

As you can see, the rotation picture is now a lot more clear. Before Buchholz was traded, you had to wonder what his role would be. He pitched begrudgingly in relief last season, but his clear preference was to be in the rotation. But with six qualified starters ahead of him on the depth chart, that didn’t seem to be a likely scenario. And if it weren’t, how much fuss would Buchholz kick up? We’ll never have to find out now that he has been dealt.

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We’ve gone through five years of having the wild-card playoffs, and I think people are pretty happy. Maybe Pirates fans are slightly less happy, but the whole thing has worked out. Yet there was concern! There was concern that it was a money grab. Short of that, there was concern that baseball was trying to inject some manufactured drama. One-game playoffs, so the line of thinking went, were best when organic. Having them every single season could and would take something away from the sanctity of the division races.

Again, I think it’s going well. One-game playoffs are always dramatic, regardless of why they’re being played. The division races are still important, because winning is the only way to bypass the elimination game. And sometimes baseball just needs the extra suspense. Now, even with just one wild card, that race could still be plenty tense. The division races, though, haven’t always been. And this year there might not be a single race at all.

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The White Sox are blowing it up, having traded Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in blockbuster deals on back-to-back days at the Winter Meetings. They are almost certainly not done, with other attractive veterans like David Robertson and Todd Frazier as trade chips, either this winter or before the summer trade deadline. But for teams looking for make a bigger splash, the White Sox have one more big trade to make, as they haven’t yet moved Jose Quintana, one of the game’s best pitchers, and a guy who is signed for four more years at bargain prices.

And for a while now, whenever anyone asked where I thought Quintana would end up, I would name the Houston Astros as the best fit. The Astros already have a very good team, but they’re a step below the best teams in baseball, and adding a frontline pitcher like Quintana seems like a way for a team with a strong young core to solidify their status as contenders both this year and for the future. Quintana’s modest salary would not prevent them from keeping any of their young stars in Houston, and since he’s around for the next four years, they could justify giving up some of the valuable young talent for which they might not have room.

The Astros have the means to get Quintana, and as a contender who could use an upgrade to keep up with Boston and the big boys in the National League, it’s not that hard to make a case for why they should push hard to land Chicago’s other ace. But the more I looked at the Astros roster, the more I began to wonder whether Houston really needs Quintana after all.

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