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37 of these guys are not in the Hall of Fame.

If he’s 275 pounds at age 24, pretty soon he’s going to be too big to move around on the field.

Yes, I know he’s 6′ 7″ tall. Doesn’t matter. Still going to be too big.

Plus, if you give him 600 PA in 2017, he’s going to strikeout 190+ times. And, unless he has an OPS of 850 or better, everyone is going to harp on those strikeouts – because players who strike out THAT MUCH look bad.

Clint Frazier, Dustin Fowler and Mark Payton are not that far away. And, you still have Rob Refsnyder and Tyler Austin.

Plus, Blake Rutherford might be coming fast. And, besides, everyone says the Yankees are going after Harper when he’s a free agent. (And, that would be a mistake, by the way.)

The value on Aaron Judge may never be higher at this point. Trade him for Jose Quintana, Danny Duffy or Sonny Gray.

At best, Judge is going to be Richie Sexson or Tony Clark. He’s not going to be Frank Thomas. Trade him now and take advantage of his prospect worth while he still has it.

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The numbers don’t lie:

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At first, I thought, “This is stupid. Too much money and too many years.”

But, if the Yankees want to pay him $400,000 per game, that’s their business, I suppose. And, Chapman would be 33 in the 5th year of the contract – and that’s not terrible.

That said, here’s the real danger here: Aroldis is not a nice, or a smart, guy. Given someone like him that much money and putting him in New York is very, very, risky. This is not Mariano Rivera. This is not Andrew Miller. Sure…maybe I am wrong here. Mickey Rivers survived with the Yankees…for a while. Even if he doesn’t get in trouble, will Chapman continue to work hard now that he’s all the money? The jury is still out on that one too.

Anyway, here’s the bigger concern: The reported opt-out after three years. We saw what the Yankees did with A-Rod and Sabathia. Two huge mistakes at opt-out time. Who’s to say they would not repeat the same mistake with Chapman? Then, the issue of too much money and too many years is a real thing.

Given where the Yankees are today, it would not have broken my heart to let someone else sign Chapman – especially at those terms.

Everyone wants to trade for José Quintana. And, why not?

He’s left-handed. He’s only 27 years old. And, for the last FOUR YEARS at the big league level, he’s been a lock for 32 starts, 200 innings, and an ERA+ around 120.

Oh, and, by the way, Brian Cashman let him go for nothing when he was just 22-years old.

Said Cashman: “We looked at him as a fringy prospect. We offered him a minor-league contract to stay, but not a 40-man roster position. We didn’t feel he was ahead of other guys we gave spots to.”

This from the man who spent $46 million on Kei Igawa.

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Only the White Sox won a ring.

If Didi Gregorius plays 150+ games in 2017 and again has an OPS+ of less than 100 (as he’s done his whole career with respect to OPS+) then he will become only the 3rd Yankees player in franchise history to post 3 such seasons.  And, the first one to do it in a half-century.

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Reportedly, a lot of scouts who watched the AFL this year feel that, in the long-term, Gleyber Torres will end up as a second baseman.

This is interesting.

The Yankees already moved Jorge Mateo towards second. Maybe he could end up as an outfielder with his speed?

But, what about the Yankees future shortstop? They’ve already moved Tyler Wade into a utility type role. Kyle Holder, while 22, has yet to prove that he can even hit Double-A pitching.

And, what about Nick Solak? Granted, he’s also far, far, away. But, does this push him to third?

Of course, you still have Didi Gregorius for another three years. But, he’s yet to post a major league season with an OPS+ better than 97. And, the sabermetric stats tell us that he was not a great fielding SS last season. Don’t be shocked if he plays himself out of town next season or the one after.

You win 93 games and then go out and add Chris Sale.

Start planning on a Red Sox-Cubs World Series next year.

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Can you spot the former Yankees?

There are only 4 players in major league history with 2+ seasons of exactly 99 hits each season:

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I’m just sayin’…

Great way to piss away $13 million bucks.

OK, kidding aside, strangely, he was a beast on the road last year. Not sure what that means?

Greg Bird, Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Gary Sanchez, Blake Rutherford, Jorge Mateo, and Aaron Judge.

Luis Severino, James Kaprielian, Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, Dustin Fowler, Domingo Acevedo and Jordan Montgomery.

Tyler Austin, Rob Refsnyder, Mason Williams, Tyler Wade, Bryan Mitchell, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Holder and Ian Clarkin.

Am I missing anyone?

Pretty safe to say that the Yankees now have 15-20 legit prospects in their system for the first time in decades?

I’ve been a fan of The Bill James Handbook since it started publishing in (June) 2003. Now, 15 editions later, we have The Bill James Handbook 2017 (which was released on November 1st.)

On the back cover of this year’s book, John Dewan shares “The Multi-Dimensional Beauty of Baseball.” This is what he wrote:

Some people are captivated by the pure physical beauty of ballparks—whether in the major or the minor leagues, on a college or high school campus, or just at a local park or playground. For example, when people see the ivy-covered walls of Wrigley Field—especially if it is in October when the leaves have already turned and baseball is still being played—they are transported to a magical place indeed. For others, the enjoyment of baseball is in watching one of the greatest games ever invented. There is nothing better than the drama of a close play at the plate, the grace of a fielder diving and catching a ball, or the excitement of a runner taking off to steal second base in a close game. For many of us, however, it’s the numbers of the game that provide our greatest enjoyment. Whether it is just keeping our own scorecard or understanding the nuances of On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) or Wins Above Replacement (WAR), baseball lends itself to statistical analysis perhaps better than any other human endeavor—or at least any other human endeavor that is so much fun!

If that last part resonates with you, then you must get your hands on a copy of The Bill James Handbook 2017.

Every year, this book gets better and better. And, that’s saying something since it was great when it first came out in 2003. Included in this year’s edition you can find:

• Hits Gained and Lost to the Shift
• Long Fly Out & Home Run Breakdowns
• Pitcher Career Fastball Velocity Trends
• Career Defensive Runs Saved
• League Stats Breakdown by Position
• Expanded Instant Replay Coverage
• No-Hitter Summary
• Home Run Robberies
• Hitter Analysis
• Career Baserunning – including total career baserunning numbers (2002-present) for players with 1000 or more games played
• Pitcher Analysis – a brand new section for pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched with a table including: number of pitches thrown, batters faced, strikeouts, walks, fly balls, lines drives and more
• Pitch Repertoire Section detailing pitch type breakdowns for all pitchers in baseball
• Rotation vs. Bullpen team charts showcasing the strengths and weaknesses of each team’s pitching staff
• Relief Pitcher Section
• The Hall of Fame Monitor
• The Fielding Bible Awards
• Pitcher Projections
• Hitter Projections
• Baserunning Analysis
• Manufactured Runs
• Team Efficiency Summary
• Player Win-Shares

Where else can you find some of this information? And, the book comes out on November 1st – as soon as the season ends! Amazing.

This is the book that should be on the desk of every member of a team’s Baseball Operations staff – from the President of Baseball Operations to the General Manager to the intern working spreadsheets. It should be next to the microphone of every major league broadcaster covering a game. Big league managers should have this book at their avail at all times.

The data in this book is the code of the baseball matrix.

If you’re a baseball fan who wants the truth, there’s a million reasons why you would want to have The Bill James Baseball Handbook 2017.

Stats. Analysis. Essays. Reports. Leader boards. Projections. It’s all there in this one. The Bill James Baseball Handbook 2017 is the best of it’s kind and nothing else is close.

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Notable major leaguers who wore #1 for a long time in their career.  Less than 20 wore it for 10+ years.

This sounds crazy. Sincerely, even to myself as I pen these thoughts, it seems a tad bizarre. But, I think it’s time to give Rafael Palmeiro a buddy pass.

Why?

Timing and the times.

Palmeiro’s career ran from 1986 through 2005. To me, that’s pretty much aligned perfectly with the steroid loosey-goosey period, as A-Rod liked to call it.

While it’s hard to say when the PED thing blossomed, it’s not unreasonable to think it started around 1983 (give or take). And, we know that Major League Baseball did not roll out a PED policy with teeth until after the 2004 season. So, to me, 1983 (or so) through 2004 was the wild, wild west of PED use in baseball. People did what they wanted and had no marshal in town since the baseball establishment – owners, players and media – pretty much completely looked the other way. There were no baseball laws to break on PED use – and anyone using at that time was not breaking any baseball laws.

Ah, yes, the law. There’s always “that.” Clearly, those using PEDs when Palmeiro played were breaking the law in that they most likely obtained the drugs illegally and were administering them without a medical doctor’s supervision. A crime? Sure…yes…no question. Then again, was it that much different from the 1950′s, 60′s and 70′s when players, with the clubs’ somewhat blessing, were taking greenies (like candy) which were being used without a doctor’s script and coming from shady sources? Further, last time I checked, no one has been ever kept out of the Hall of Fame because they drank coffee everyday laced with amphetamines (supplied in the clubhouse before games in the “old days.”)

No, I haven’t forgotten about the time when Palmeiro emphatically wagged his finger back in March of 2005, claiming that he never used PEDs.

However, think about it:  What was he supposed to say at that point? If he tried to plead the Fifth like McGwire or pretend that he didn’t speak English like Sosa, he would have been branded as being a user. And, if no one else was going to confess at that time, why should he?

“He cheated!,” many probably still want to say here. Well…you can say that…but, he “cheated” to do better on the field. This is not like the 1919 White Sox where people were throwing baseball games. There is an old saying in baseball: “If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.” Guys doctor baseballs, steal signs, withhold medical information, fake dates of birth, add inches to their height and shave pounds off their weight, and do other things like that in baseball – all the time. If “cheating” is bending or dancing around the rules, then there’s all sorts of cheating going on in baseball whether folks are called on it or not.

In the end, I am somewhat confident that Rafael Palmeiro will be the modern-day Shoeless Joe Jackson. One hundred years will pass and he’ll still be on the outside, looking in.

Maybe, if someone like Jim Thome, Frank Thomas or Jeff Bagwell gets outed for PED use after they were elected to the Hall of Fame, it will open a door for someone like Palmeiro to have their career re-examined?

In the meantime, it will be McGwire, Sosa and Palmeiro. They’re the PED poster boys. Nothing really to do at this point but to wear it.

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Reggie. Top 4. Close to being #2.

This has Cashman written all over it.

BHM. (Big Hairy Monster.)

Is it possible that all ten of these players will be on the Yankees Opening Day roster in 2017?

Tyler Austin
Luis Cessa
Nick Goody
Aaron Judge
Rob Refsnyder
Gary Sanchez
Ronald Torreyes
Greg Bird
Bryan Mitchell
Dellin Betances

I keep reading that the Yankees are going to sign at least two “big free agents” this off-season.

Boy…would that be a mistake.

This stuff has to stop. In a perfect world, barring a Jeter or Rivera type situation which is far and few between, I wish the Yankees never had a player over the age of 35…AND…had no one on their payroll making more than $17 million a year.

Old players and $100 million dollar contracts are a death sentence these days. The Yankees should have learned that by now. Of course, they still have Cashman as a G.M. as well. And, that means they don’t learn from mistakes.

Sad.

Wow.

McCann PLUS cash for two pitchers who have never faced a batter in Double-A.

Geesh.

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The WAR, Games, ERA+ and Batters Faced numbers are almost identical.

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Look at Reggie.  No wonder why they named a candy bar after him.

Crazy list.

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Giambi = Reggie + Blomberg.

The 10 best World Series Game Seven contests just may be 2016, 2014, 2001, 1997, 1991, 1962, 1960, 1946, 1926, and 1924. In terms of grabbing national attention, for sundry reasons, you could slice the list down to 2016, 2001, 1991 and 1960 as the top four – with TV coverage giving them an assist. Picking which one of these four is the best Game Seven ever would be difficult. One thing to note is that the home team won in 1960, 1991 and 2001 – and that was not the case in 2016. This adds the element of the winning team still needing to get 3 outs to win, compared to walking off with the victory. Perhaps this additional degree of difficulty makes 2016 stand out a bit more?

This season, Kyle Hendricks, on the road, in a hitter’s ballpark, is a good pitcher – but, not a great one. That said, expect to see Jon Lester in this game tonight at some point for the Cubs. And, when that happens, Cleveland better be aggressive on the bases. (And, maybe that’s a reason for Francona to play Guyer, Davis and Crisp in the outfield tonight and bench Chisenhall and Naquin?) On the flip side, Corey Kluber should be good for 50 pitches and 4 effective innings tonight, at the least. Then, you’re going to see Shaw, Miller and Allen. Of course, Schwarber, Rizzo, Bryant, Zobrist and company can swing the bats. But, good pitching beats good hitting. If Kluber, Shaw, Miller and Allen are on tonight, I see Cleveland winning a close contest. To me, that’s the key to the game tonight: Cleveland’s best pitchers against Chicago’s great hitters. Whomever wins those battles will win the war.

Since they went to the wildcard format in baseball, in the past 21 years, only the 1998 & 1999 Yankees, and the 2005 White Sox, have won World Series rings while losing two games or less during their post-season run.  (’99 Yanks and ’05 Chisox lost one.  ’98 Yanks lost two.)  With a win tonight, Cleveland can join the club.

Since 1973, there have ONLY been FOUR Yankees players to have 10+ seasons with the team where they played enough to qualify for the league batting title:

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And, it’s going to be a long time before someone joins this group.

At the major league level, the Yankees have Gardner, Ellsbury and Hicks in the outfield next year. (Yeah, for some stupid reason, they love Hicks.)

However, they also have Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier and Tyler Austin very close in the wings. (I say Austin expecting Bird to play first.) And, there’s more outfielders very close and knocking on the door. You’ve got Dustin Fowler, Mark Payton…and maybe even Mason Williams or Billy McKinney (although I am not too high on the latter two). And, don’t discount Blake Rutherford being a fast mover.

I know the Yankees would love to unload Ellsbury. But, that’s not going to happen.

Sure smells like Gardner is going to get traded this off-season, no?