Economies — Open Access Journal

In 2014, the Mexican government approved a bold energy reform that allows private energy companies to freely participate in the energy market (something prohibited during the previous eight decades). This reform is expected to significantly restructure the energy sector and boost and diversify the energy production. Moreover, changes in the energy sector and production might lead to structural changes in the rest of the economy and ultimately generate significant economic benefits for the country. Nevertheless, the fundamental role of the energy sector in this oil producing country makes the potential impacts of the reform complex to forecast. The objective of the study is to analyze the current state, evolution, and driving factors of the total primary energy use in Mexico in 2003–2012 (prior to the implementation of the reform) as a precedent for future analyses of impacts of the energy reform. The results show three driving factors of the evolution of primary energy use: final non-energy demand, direct energy intensity, and economic structure. Also, it was found that the energy sector has been in a precarious situation regarding its structure and efficiency. However, this situation had a small effect on the evolution of primary energy use. Full article

The main purpose of this paper is to explore and determine perceptions of residents living in the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) protected site Old City of Dubrovnik (OCD) towards tourism development. Uncontrolled tourism expansion has impact on local residents’ life and on their (un)support for specific form of tourism development. Comprehension of residents’ perceptions is crucial for realization of adequate tourism development and for mutual satisfaction of tourism demand and supply. Therefore, the aim is to test the model of residents’ perceptions of economic, socio-cultural and environmental impacts of tourism on their (un)support for specific form of tourism development. To realize the purpose of this research, Cronbach alpha, explorative (EFC) and confirmatory (CFA) factor analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM) were applied. The findings indicate that there is a direct relationship between residents who perceive positive and negative economic, socio-cultural and environmental impacts of tourism and their (un)support for tourism development. This paper points out the role and significance of the permanent residents’ perceptions research concerning the issues that are related to the quality tourism development due to the high interaction between local residents, tourists and local tourism development especially in the areas under the protection of UNESCO. Full article

Foreign direct investment (FDI) may have a positive effect on the level of pollution in host countries, as described by the pollution haven hypothesis (PHH). However, this kind of effect may depend on the economic conditions in host countries. In this study, we conduct research on the FDI’s effect on China’s CO₂ emissions during the market-oriented reform. The results are as follows. Firstly, FDI directly promotes China’s CO₂ emissions. Secondly, with market-oriented reform, this positive effect from FDI is lowering year by year, which indicates that the market-oriented reform could alleviate the positive effect of FDI on China’s CO₂ emissions. Thirdly, as China’s market-oriented reform was implemented gradually from experimental zones to the whole country, regional market development is uneven, and as such so is FDI’s effect on local CO₂ emissions. Provinces in the eastern area generally evidenced higher market development and lower CO₂ emissions from FDI, while four provinces in west area evidenced both lower market development and higher CO₂ emissions from FDI. Full article

This study investigates the relationship between financial development and economic growth in the Ivory Coast over the period from 1961 to 2014. The final goal of this research is to develop a procedure to identify the effects of financial reforms for the Ivory Coast economic growth. Therefore, to achieve this goal, we first conducted a common component analysis (CCA) on our time series data to create: (1) a variable that would be the most appropriate proxy for the financial development; and (2) a vector of control variables for economic growth. Second, a vector autoregression model (VAR) with restriction was used as an appropriate specification of the dynamic relationship between the proxy of financial development, economic growth and other important factors of that growth (vector of control variables). Results suggest that in the Ivory Coast, growth in financial development is synonymous with the overall economic growth of the national economy. This study addresses the controversy over the appropriate proxy for the financial development in the Ivory Coast and it establishes a causal relationship between the financial development and the national economic growth. Full article

The problem of the relevance of human and natural capital, as well as the potential adverse effect of natural capital on economic growth, has gained increased attention in development economics. The aim of this paper is to assess, theoretically and empirically, the relevance of several forms of capital on economic growth in certain small economies that are dependent upon tourism or natural resources. The empirical framework is based on Impulse Response Functions obtained from Vector Autoregressive models in which we focus on the model where economic growth is the dependent variable for ten small economies that are dependent upon either tourism or natural resources. We find that there is evidence of the “natural resource curse”, especially in the economies that have a strong dependence on resources that are easily substitutable and whose prices constantly fluctuate. We further find that in the majority of observed cases, the type of capital these small economies are most dependent on for their economic growth causes negative impulses in the majority of the observed periods. Therefore, the main policy recommendation should be to assure that even these small economies should strive towards further diversification and avoid dependence on only one segment of their economy. Full article

In this study, the impact of terrorist attacks on exchange rate is estimated. Particularly, the study focuses on terrorist attacks in Turkey and its implication on Turkish lira versus pound sterling exchange rate. In order to find the causal effect, the study employed Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing approach as an estimation technique. Accordingly, the analysis reveals that a terrorist attack has a negative impact on the exchange rate in both the short-run and long-run. However, the negative effect of terrorism tends to be small in both the short-run and long-run. More precisely, terrorist attacks depreciate the exchange rate between Turkish lira and pound sterling by approximately 0.024% in the next trading day. The long-term effect also shows that a terrorist attack depreciates the exchange rate on average by 0.0706%. Full article

This paper examined the direction of causality between financial deepening and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1970–2013. The study adopted the Toda–Yamamoto augmented Granger causality test and results showed that the growth-financial deepening nexus in Nigeria follows the supply-leading hypothesis. This means that it is financial deepening that leads to growth and not growth leading financial deepening. Among other things, the study recommended that policy efforts should be geared towards removing obstacles that undermine the growth of credit to the private sector, and must restore investors’ confidence in the stock market operations. Full article

The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 had a negative impact on many countries, including Vietnam. Many policies have been applied to stabilize the macro-economic indicators. However, most of them are based on old qualitative models, which do not help policy makers understand deeply how each one affects the economy. In this paper, we investigate a quantitative macro-economic approach and use leaning against the wind policies with the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) to find a better way to understand how policies stabilize the Vietnamese economy. Based on the framework of Gerali et al., we calibrate the hyper-parameter for Vietnam financial data and do the comparison between the standard Taylor rule and the cases in which we add asset price and credit elements. The results show that the credit-augmented Taylor rule is better than the asset-price-augmented one under the technology shock and contrary to the cost-push shock. Moreover, the extended simulation result shows that combining both asset-price and credit rules on the model is not useful for Vietnam’s economy in both types of shock. Full article

The recognition of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as a source of funding to foster economic development in both developed and developing countries has been in ascendancy. The prime purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the determinants of FDI for the “landlocked countries” in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1995–2013. By employing panel data analysis, the result of the study revealed that domestic investment, trade (openness), human capital, political constraint, natural resource endowment and the market size (with the GDP growth as proxy) as having positive impact on determining FDI flow into the sample countries with only the countries’ tax policies seen otherwise. Our study not only contributes to existing literature on FDI determinants by investigating landlocked countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the first time but also includes natural resources that the landlocked countries are endowed with, tax policies and political constraints in such countries for the stipulated period. Full article

There is ample evidence from economic growth literature that investment accelerates economic growth and development of developing countries, of which Ghana is not an exception. Based on this, recent growth and development policies in Ghana have focused more on encouraging private sector investment through the development of the financial sector. This paper investigates the short- and long-run impact of financial development on private investment in Ghana for the years 1970–2014. Additionally, to find out whether the measurement of financial development matters for private investment, several indicators of financial development are used. The results, based on the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, suggest that financial development has not been a key driver of private investment in the long run, while, in the short run, the effect of financial development on private investment depends on how financial development is measured. Given these results, policy makers should be circumspect regarding the choice of financial development indicator used as a policy instrument in the design and implementation of private investment policies for Ghana. Full article

This paper seeks to enrich the field of research on the topic of the impact of remittances on long-run economic growth. Using an unbalanced panel data covering a sample of 116 countries with different development levels over the period 1990–2014, we studied the interaction between remittances and the level of economic development, as well as its impact on long-run economic growth—because the impact of remittances could be influenced by the development level of the receiving countries. In parallel, we explored the hypothesis about diminishing a country’s capacity to use remittances for promoting long-run economic growth as the abundance of remittances increases. To control the endogeneity while estimating the impact of remittances on long-run economic growth, we used OLS (ordinary least squares) with FD (first differences) transformation and FE (fixed effects) approaches and other controls of long-run growth. Our results showed that in general remittances have a positive impact on long-run economic growth, but the impact differs based on the country’s economic development level and the abundance of remittances in the economy. Full article

This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediary development and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981–2011 using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration analysis. The results show that the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Nigeria is not significantly different from what has been observed generally in oil-dependent economies. The relationship between financial intermediary development and economic growth in Nigeria is found to be insignificantly negative in the long-run and significantly negative in the short-run. The results highlight the dominant role of the oil sector in economic activities in Nigeria. Full article

This paper examines the relationship between stock market evolution and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. The study employs Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach and a combined stock market indicators index to examine the relationship. The paper finds that, in the long run, stock markets have no positive and at best mixed effect on economic growth in Nigeria. This finding supports the numerous past studies, which have reported negative/mixed or inconclusive results on the effects of stock markets on economic growth. The paper, therefore, concludes that, there is the need for increasing financial deepening and the removal of bottlenecks in the financial sectors of the economy by providing further public and institutional education on the value of stock markets for economic development. Full article

This study is an empirical attempt to find out whether under sanctions Iran’s trade direction has shifted away from Europe (trade policy of de-Europeanization) towards Asia (trade policy of Asianization). The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity trade model to analyze bilateral trade pattern between Iran and 50 countries from the EU and Asia during the period 2006–2013. To this end, the authors use an extended gravity model by adding new variables, including the index of Chinn–Ito (KAOPEN) as an indicator of financial openness, and the composite trade intensity (CTI) as an indicator of trade openness. Our findings reveal that the gravity equation fits the data reasonably well. The empirical evidence indicates a significant negative effect of sanctions on Iran–EU bilateral trade (by an average of 46.9%), while it has a positive impact on trade between Iran and the Asian countries (by an average of 85.2%). Overall, these findings confirm that the imposition of various sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program has pushed the country’s foreign trade to reorient away from Europe towards Asia. Full article

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of changes in migration flows—in particular, those resulting from possible migration policy changes after a UK exit (‘Brexit’) from the European Union (EU)—on the finances of the UK state pension system. We find that the aggregate effects of considered shocks to immigration associated with Brexit on the funding of UK state pensions are dwarfed by associated uncertainties, and by coincident cost increases due to population aging and (domestic) pension’s policy. Full article

Since revelations of the Greek fiscal deficit in the fall of 2009, the breakup of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has moved from unthinkable to plausible. The debate over the future of the EMU has become increasingly relevant, as numerous efforts to solve the Greek crisis have not been successful. Neither have basic competitiveness differences between countries in the core and periphery of the European Union been eliminated. Proposed solutions include development of a banking union, regulatory measures to monitor trade and capital imbalances, fiscal reforms on the part of countries in trouble, and centralized fiscal capacity on the part of the EMU itself to offset the liabilities of the indebted states. While the crisis seems to be contained, it is by no means solved. This leads to the question: “Will the euro survive?” We answer this question in the affirmative, but in doing so we argue that continuation of the EMU is different from the question of whether the EMU should have been created in the first place. Some reasons for continuation of the EMU were present at its creation; others have developed in a path‐dependent way as the Eurozone has evolved. Full article

The present study aims to measure the technical efficiency and establish core factors affecting rice production in Cambodia. A four‐year dataset generated from the central government document “Profile on Economics and Social” of 25 entire provinces between 2012 and 2015 and the stochastic production frontier model (SFA) was applied. The results indicated that the level of output (quantity) of Cambodian rice production varied according to the different level of capital investment in agricultural machineries, total rice actual harvested area, and technical fertilizer application within provinces. Furthermore, evidence revealed that the overall mean efficiency of rice production is 78.4%, which implies that there is still room to further improve technical efficiency given the same level of inputs and technology. More importantly, the findings revealed that irrigation, production techniques and amount of agricultural supporting staff are the most important influencing factors of rice production’s technical efficiency in Cambodia. In conclusion, the present study strongly recommends the development of irrigation systems and good water management practices to be considered and bring about more effective actions by the central government as well as related agencies for improving rice production in Cambodia in addition to capital investment and improving technical skills of supporting staff and rural farmers. Full article

In this paper, we investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the production and price level in five emerging countries through comparison with the United States, using a two-block structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Kilian and Park (see International Economic, vol. 50, 2009, pp. 1267–1287). Our main finding is that the effect of oil price shocks on the index of the industrial production (IIP) and consumer price index (CPI) in emerging countries also depends on where the changes fundamentally come from (this is also the case for the United States). We also found that some emerging countries showed unique impulse response patterns, the shapes of which are different from those of the United States and there are differences in impulse response patterns among emerging countries. Full article

In 2011, the most severe drought in Texas history caused $7.62 billion in losses in the agricultural sector alone. This paper analyzes ripple effects of the 2011 drought in Texas agriculture on the entire state economy retrospectively in an effort to foster discussion on targeted mitigation measures in the long term. By using an Input-Output and social accounting matrix model, direct effects on livestock, cotton, sorghum, wheat, corn, hay, and timber production, as well as indirect effects on other related sectors, and finally induced effects from changing consumers behavior have been estimated. According to the results, the 2011 drought caused economic losses of $16.9 billion in the entire Texas economy and increased the unemployment by around 166,895 people. The agricultural sector alone lost around 106,000 jobs. The cotton farming experienced 91% of revenue losses (as compared to 2010), while the livestock production lost 32% in revenue. The decreased production yields and limited market supply directly influence market prices for those products, which might create additional spillover effects on export and import quantities. The presented analysis can be helpful for designing policies to launch mitigation programs for drought events in the future. Full article