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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	1 時間
	Thread - on why we shouldn't assume @EmmanuelMacron will necessarily duck veto. Notes May needs to come with something on the table to labour - which is coming shortly. Perhaps be vague enough to keep balls in air until Weds. twitter.com/pierrebri/stat…
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	ItwasSammyMcNally @ItwasSammy	1 時間
	返信先: @pmdfoster Just as likely she has an outline plan with Corbyn and wants to confirm it will sail. Possibly CU with referendum in 6 months versus signing up to her deal now(ish).
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	mrhanky @mrhanky67348756	2 時間
	返信先: @pmdfoster makes sense to visit merkel to make the case on her proposed way forward in hope merkel pushes that point further with the other 26 and goes easy on uk... helpful to visit macron to try to calm down the hottest head in the room as much as poss before he gets mingling
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	Stephen Ruth @stephen_rth	2 時間
	返信先: @pmdfoster I thought her 'address to the nation' yesterday pointed towards this too. It felt to me that she was trying to convince the Europeans that her engagement with Labour was serious. twitter.com/stephen_rth/st…
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	Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson	19 時間
	返信先: @stephen_rth She's going to get an extension that is longer than EU hawks want and with more strict conditionality than the Brexiter hawks can cope with
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	BBC Politics @BBCPolitics	2 時間
	Jaguar Land Rover shuts down production for a week over #Brexit uncertainties bbc.in/2UolziZ
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	2 時間
	返信先: @brucemcd23 Make sense if EU side were lining up to impose Tusk 1-year #flextension on UK...but that's not the mood music at moment. Seems to be leaning back towards something shorter/tougher.
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	2 時間
	Working backwards, if the disagreement over #Article 50 extension was limited to how to put a figleaf process together - a 'timetable to show May is trying with labour' - then why is she making emergency Paris-Berlin dash? Suggests she fears she may not be getting what she wants.
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	Denis MacShane @DenisMacShane	3 時間
	Gibraltar first minister @FabianPicardo calls for Revocation of Article 50 as risks to Rock are too great. Big @TheNewEuropean scoop - worth a national paper front page theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/gi… @SamCoatesTimes @pmdfoster @patrickwintour @GeorgeWParker @mk1969
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	3 時間
	返信先: @bopanc Yes. But once you’ve held EP elex, or even agreed to do so, and signed good behaviour compact, the U.K. - if it doesn’t actively want a “no deal” - gets to stay until EU actively decided to boot them out. It shifts dynamic of the blamegame.
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	3 時間
	返信先: @olddiesel @theresa_may Mmm. Just can’t see it. Even his ego isn’t that big. Is it? 😬😬
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	3 時間
	返信先: @olddiesel @theresa_may *Without* creating
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	3 時間
	返信先: @olddiesel @theresa_may Very low I think. Close to zero. Just can’t see unanimity for that. I think Q is how you keep pressure on U.K. side within creating another “no deal” cliff - which both sides don’t want.
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	4 時間
	返信先: @bopanc That would speak to a return to giving May what she asked for - June 30 - even though that is the same date leaders rejected last time. But at least one MS tells me that's where it might come down. Wedensday night might still be interesting. 7/ENDS
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	4 時間
	返信先: @bopanc The Tusk argument for patience is still a sound one, particularly if you don't have the stomach or unity for putting guns to departing member states' heads. So maybe, as @bopanc says, it comes down to finding somethign to make Macron look like he's cracking whip. /6
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	4 時間
	返信先: @bopanc So without movement, her only argument is the one used by Jeremy Hunt this morning in Strasbourg, which is that 'we're talking, that's a step in itself, a big move, give us some space' - even tho there really isn't much good reason for EU leaders to believe it can deliver. /5
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	4 時間
	返信先: @bopanc The fact May is travelling not sitting in Westminster talking to Corbyn seems to indicate that there is little prospect of a deal pre-EUCO that will access the 'middle 400' for MPs who might go for CU pledge alongside Withdrawal Agreement to get it done. /4
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	4 時間
	返信先: @bopanc Will take real political will to force a hard decision point on UK (revoke v no deal) which as @bopanc says, isn't really there. No appetite for a 'no deal'. But as last #EUCO showed, forcing decisions on UK is hard. Both leaders risk splitting parties if they move. /3
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	4 時間
	返信先: @pmdfoster Once UK has agreed to hold EP elections, once it has done so, door is open to longer extension, inertia - and rising likelihood Brexit doesn't happen. It dies a slow death. EU leaders also get to park the issue while UK spends some time shredding itself. /2
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	Peter Foster @pmdfoster	4 時間
	Do leader really want an endless series of cliff-edges? Barnier fears long extension takes pressure off - but there are 'decision points' still in a long extenson: EP elections, EP sitting, UK Party Conferences. Some MS saying "do we need to decide now" - no, but then what? 1/ twitter.com/bopanc/status/…
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