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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@
yarbatman
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I work on #Iran business diplomacy through publishing, research, and events. Founder of @BourseBazaar + @EuropeIranForum | Poli Sci @Columbia
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Mohammad Ali Shabani
@mashabani
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6 h |
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"With the nuclear waivers in the crosshairs, the urgency of withstanding US pressure is about far more than just protecting business interests — it is about preventing a possible proliferation crisis." Sharp analysis by @yarbatman al-monitor.com/pulse/original… #IranDeal
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Afshon Ostovar
@AOstovar
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"If the US continues to observe the rules of engagement, the channels of communication, the prevailing protocols, then in spite of the fact that we consider U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf as destabilizing, we're not going to take any action," Zarif said reuters.com/article/us-ira…
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benoit faucon
@benoitfaucon
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19 h |
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Exclusive: Asian Companies Pull Back From Iran Amid U.S. Pressure wsj.com/articles/asian…
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Gregg Carlstrom
@glcarlstrom
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11 h |
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Forget oil sanctions. Hawks in Washington want to cancel waivers that let a Chinese firm work on civil nuclear projects in Iran. That may sink the deal quicker than any economic pressure. al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
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Iran Pulse
@TheIranPulse
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11 h |
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While the #US' stepping up of oil sanctions has gotten more attention lately, a greater threat to the nuclear deal involves waivers allowing cooperation with #Iran on nonproliferation al-monitor.com/pulse/original… … @yarbatman
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Al-Monitor
@AlMonitor
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18 h |
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A decision by the Trump administration to revoke the waivers for civil nuclear cooperation with Iran would constitute the most direct US assault on the nuclear deal to date, writes @yarbatman almon.co/378a
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Ali Vaez
@AliVaez
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20 h |
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Excellent thread 👇 twitter.com/yarbatman/stat…
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Henry Farrell
@henryfarrell
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19 h |
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Very important thread twitter.com/yarbatman/stat…
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Jarrett Blanc
@JarrettBlanc
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18 h |
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A good, clear assessment from @yarbatman @AlMonitor of an issue that is as technically complicated as it is important. The bottom line is simple: not extending the waivers would be counter to any non-proliferation interest. al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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20 h |
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7. If the US revokes the nuclear waivers, I see no way CNNC will continue work on Arak without some major state intervention. The JCPOA parties failed to fully resist US sanctions for the sake of economic engagement. Will they *finally* do so for the sake of non-proliferation?
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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6. In the face of the limited investment Iran saw after sanctions relief, the parties of the JCPOA have repeatedly stated that they can't force companies into the Iranian market. This has been the cop out. But now the issue arises in the essential area nuclear cooperation.
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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5. It appears that the same sanctions concerns that hobbled economic engagement under the JCPOA might hobble nuclear cooperation as well. CNNC is a global firm with Belt and Road ambitions. It is looking at US targeting of companies like ZTE + Huawei and seeing huge risks.
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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4. Indeed, Iran continued to abide by its side of the agreement. But earlier this year, the head of Iran's atomic energy organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, stated publicly that China was not carrying out required work on the Arak reactor redesign.
scmp.com/news/china/dip…
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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3. While #Iran failed to see the economic dividends of the nuclear deal, both due to the lingering effects of sanctions when lifted and their eventual reimposition by Trump, it was largely taken for granted that the non-proliferation work would continue.
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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2. The Trump administration is considering revoking three waivers critical for the nuclear work at Arak, Fordow, and Bushehr. Unlike the economic promises of the JCPOA, the work on these three nuclear sites is fundamental to the non-proliferation commitments of the JCPOA.
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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1. Continued implementation of civil nuclear cooperation under the #JCPOA depends not on the commitment of governments, but on the decisions of a single Chinese company, the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC). This is the deal's fatal flaw.
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
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Amin Khorami
@aminismyname
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22 h |
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Interviewed @yarbatman on the US ending waivers for #Iran oil. Discussed Trump strategy, Bolton/Pompeo, sanctions and negotiations. He believes that the US is not interested in negotiation, regime change or war — but opts for a weak Iran in the ME.
@hamshahrinews
Key points>>
1/
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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22 h |
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Enshallah seems like the right word here.
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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22 h |
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Agree with @aarondmiller2 + @dicktfirefly, particularly that the IRGC FTO designation "will be nearly impossible to undo." Post-Trump, the broken mechanisms of US foreign policy will need a reckoning.
politico.com/magazine/story…
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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22 h |
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Thanks.
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