Staedtler

Bribery or threats. Nothing will give her the votes she needs. Only a general election can do that. Sack Theresa May or she'll get you into another election.

They will never be more confident of winning the vote. So if the withdrawal agreement never comes back to a vote, she either resigns or tries another election.

She can still get 280 votes, at the very most. The huge mass of Tory MPs will vote for her. 280 of them. And she will still lose by about 50 or 60 votes. I've done the counting, I know the names, I've added them up, and she doesn't have the votes.

There is a mass of the moderately unimpressed who could, at a pinch, vote for Theresa May and huff and sulk about it after. But there is a knot of about 40 people that will not, and in the depth of their very soul, cannot vote for this.

Now, this is a minority government which depends for its survival on some of the most fanatically dedicated people in the country. The DUP will never vote for this withdrawal agreement. Nor will Mogg's ERG. They have brought down government after government of their own party.

You can only "rumour" decisions that have already been made but not announced. Rumour doesn't exist for what parliament hasn't decided yet.

There can't be "rumour" that parliament is going to vote for something, as though parliament is a single block entity. Parliament is 650 people, and a lot of them probably don't know how they're going to vote.

Therefore, in my advice, the Tories will sack Theresa May today. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well It were done quickly

And because they are bound to sack Theresa May in January, they might as well do it before Christmas, so at least the festivities will distract attention while they sort out a new leader.

My guess is that she will never bring it to a vote. The numbers will never be on her side. But they can't let her wait forever. So if she tried to delay again in January the cabinet would be forced to sack her. They would threaten to resign en mass unless she quit.

She put the vote off because she was going to lose. But the numbers won't improve by January. hardened against her if anything. So it's either a suicide mission or put it off again till February.

I bet the withdrawal agreement never comes to a vote in parliament. I bet it never does.

It is December 20th. Parliament is off until January. It seems there is nothing now that can dislodge Theresa May until January. I therefore predict that she will resign before the end of the year.

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I would give the Tories this advice. They're going to sack Theresa May anyway before next March, but the longer they leave it, the greater the chance that Labour wins an election next year, and the SNP get another independence referendum.

So the only option left is to sack Theresa May and abandon Brexit. Either the cabinet takes the initiative and sacks her now, or events force them to sack her in the next few weeks.

What about door number 2? Will that help? Bring their withdrawal agreement to a vote. They can, and they will lose. No threat or fear is going to make them vote for that because they know a bluff when they see it. They will vote it down and May will resign.

1. If they sit and wait they will be drowned in the growing economic chaos, and in the midst of this, when it really gets going, the media and their back benchers will go mental. That relentless pressure will force it on them, and May will resign.

Trapped in a chaos of their own making, with a leader they can't get rid of, and no majority in parliament. What are their choices? 1. Just sit there and wait for events to happen upon them. 2. Bring their withdrawal agreement to a vote. 3. Sack Theresa May and abandon Brexit.

General election within three months, and the Tories are stuck. They can't even Brexit any sooner to get it over with. They've got to sit there for another three months, watching the country go to shit and nothing they can do.