So treat this figure with caution, but based on back-of-the-envelope calculations and conversations with people closer to it than me, and I think that 20,000 is likely a generous estimate of Wagner's strength. Happy to be corrected if anyone has more solidly-sourced data. 8/end
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Besides, unlike the military, Wagner cannot force people to stay in after contracts have been served, so there is a natural churn, especially of veterans who were signed up hurriedly in late spring of last year 7/
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By all accounts, this means replenishment has been difficult, and the focus is on regrouping after Bakhmut so that Wagner can take part in defensive operations, not re-expansion 6/
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Meanwhile, Wagner has been barred from continuing to recruit in Russia's labour camps and is having trouble attracting others, not least as it faces stiffer competition from the regular military and a slew of new PMCs 5/
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But since then, even Prigozhin says Wagner suffered 20,000 casualties (dead + wounded) in Bakhmut, and most other sources give similar figures 4/
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However, follow the link and the 50k figure is sourced to a tweet from...20 January. I'm quite prepared to believe that figure *then* as Wagner was swollen with convict-soldiers and had not been pushed through the Bakhmut meatgrinder 3/
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Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 20 January 2023
Find out more about the UK government's response: ow.ly/sUUI50MvNFH
#StandWithUkraine
#StandWithUkraine Show this thread
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The problem is often one of a lack of up-to-date figures, so the last one around tends to be recycled, such as in this BBC piece from 4 days ago 2/
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This figure of "50,000" Wagner fighters keeps doing the rounds - I think it dramatically overstates the real figure (which is closer to 20,000, in my opinion). A short thread 1/
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Just finished this excellent book. Hoping to have the time to write a proper review soon, but for now READ IT, it's fascinating and hugely important, and (given my domain bias) the navy stuff is great.
BZ !
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JOB ALERT: I'm moving on to different pastures but is hiring a Russia Military & Political Strategy Subject Matter Expert. A truly phenomenal Russia-oriented security job in the DC area. DM for details. Please retweet.
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We Need to Talk About Putin is only 99p on Kindle this month! 📱
An insider's account of the real Vladimir Putin uncovering the man behind the myth, by internationally-acclaimed expert
amazon.co.uk/We-Need-Talk-A
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Another day, another translation! This time, the Chinese-language edition of my THE WEAPONISATION OF EVERYTHING (which is singularly appropriate given how often China crops up in the book...)
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Calling all military history buffs!
Now hiring: Staff Writer (Part-time, Remote UK)
➡️ trib.al/z8mjHtv
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Interesting. Sablin was also one of the architects of the Crimea annexation & prospective leader of pro-Rus separatist govt in 2014 until the Kremlin shut him down
Quote Tweet
Russia’s WarGonzo milblogger collective claims that the head of Duma’s committee on defence, Dmitry Sablin, commands the air reconnaissance unit of Pacific Fleet marines who were involved in heavy fighting at Novodonetske. Sablin is a native of Mariupol.
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thanx 4 great interview!
about curret offensive, putins court, and why he doesn't drink vodka anymore 😁
text postoj.sk/132096/nemali- via .sk
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Monday podcast re-up time - a little about the current state of the war (it's too early to draw grand conclusions) and a consideration of Ag Minister Dmitry Patrushev, son of the baleful Nikolai, as a potential future political power-player, even president
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In Moscow's Shadows 103: The Rise of the Princeling Patrushev
If Patrushev Sr is regarded as one of the grey cardinals, Jr is more a grey cardigan – undistinguished, unfashionable, yet cosy + comforting for the old men around Putin
On your usual app or buzzsprout.com/1026985/130167
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A must read! has written a thought provoking book (again) that is well worth spending some time reading and re-reading!
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In Moscow's Shadows 103: The Rise of the Princeling Patrushev
If Patrushev Sr is regarded as one of the grey cardinals, Jr is more a grey cardigan – undistinguished, unfashionable, yet cosy + comforting for the old men around Putin
On your usual app or
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It's too soon to draw any real conclusions about the actual fighting, but it is interesting how it is being spun. It may just be infelicitous phrasing, but Putin does seem to be distancing himself from his own high command. My take for
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#Ukrainecast: surviving floods
Ivan, a student who’s driven to Kherson to help deliver aid
on people cut off by floods amidst shelling
on what 🇷🇺 attitude to fighting in Belgorod tells us abt Putin
With & me
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Just a reminder that next Wednesday, Ekaterina Schulmann and I will be discussing the evolution of the Russian political system at this event in London. Do join us!
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“Todo es un arma”, el último libro de es una guía de campo para entender el futuro de los conflictos y el panorama cambiante de la guerra y cómo adaptarse a ello.
⬇️No te lo puedes perder⬇️
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#HIRING
We have an exciting opportunity for you to join our team. We're hiring a Research Fellow with expertise in GEOINT, OSINT, and data science to join us. Visit our website for more details!
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Having reached the Russian navy section of "Putin's Wars" this morning, I am delighted to discover that in place of the phrase "paper tiger" uses "water-soluble orca"
GIF
read image description
ALT
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The Briefing: The fallout of the Nova Kakhovka dam bombing with and Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze. Plus: the latest from Latin America with and on the Serpentine Pavilion.
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Our Associate Fellow, , was on last night discussing Ukraine’s anticipated counter-offensive...
Watch the interview here👇
Quote Tweet
“Its not just a straight forward soldier against soldier”
Director of Mayak Intelligence Mark Galeotti describes the preparations Russians soldiers are likely making in advance of the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive
bbc.in/2Ps915G
1:04
7.4K views
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'It is impossible to draw any meaningful conclusions about the situation on the ground right now, but what is striking is the lack of any clear narrative or unity on the Russian side.'
✍️Mark Galeotti
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Russia flounders as Kyiv gears up for its counter-offensive
Who knows if the reported Ukrainian attacks are feint, probe or the real start; but what is clear is the way the Russians are torn by recriminations and divisions. My latest for
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Monday re-up of the latest podcast episode, focusing on the Chechens in the Ukraine war (on the Russian side), how little they are actually doing, and how this is a microcosm of how Kadyrov works, pledging performative loyalty to the regime he exploits and extorts...
Quote Tweet
In Moscow's Shadows 102: The Wolf that Only Howls: the Chechens in Ukraine
Latest ep. The war is a microcosm of Putinism: Kadyrov loudly performs loyalty while exploiting Moscow however he can.
On your usual app or buzzsprout.com/1026985/129745
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While Putin is disengaging from politics, the business of actually running the country has fallen to Prime Minister Mishustin. Who, as evidence suggests, doesn't seem to support the war. My latest for on what this means (and what it doesn't)
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In Moscow's Shadows 102: The Wolf that Only Howls: the Chechens in Ukraine
Latest ep. The war is a microcosm of Putinism: Kadyrov loudly performs loyalty while exploiting Moscow however he can.
On your usual app or
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Der Spiegel's intrepid reporters discover what most of us knew for years (I talk about it in my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN), that Putin's KGB career was lacklustre and his Dresden role more Miss Moneypenny than Bond...
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It’s harder than ever to predict what will happen next in Ukraine
It's less satisfying to write about what we can't really know, but it's worth countering those who affect to know for sure. My online latest (£) for the
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And last but not least, SIW Znak's #Polish edition of my THE WEAPONISATION OF EVERYTHING (originally ), with a starkly and deceptively simple cover that I really like. 3/end
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Secondly, the #Czech translation by of my PUTIN'S WARS: FROM CHECHNYA TO UKRAINE (originally /), a really solid doorstop of an edition, with a gorily striking cover 2/3
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I'm away for a couple of days and despite some serious travel disruptions, am perked up by the arrival of not one but three wonderful translations of some of my books! First, my debut in Arabic, THE VORY (originally published by ) 1/3
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Yesterday it took me 1 hour 15 mins to fly 450 miles from Stuttgart to London. Thanks to #RailStrikes and the incompetence of it took me more than 10 hours to travel 100 miles and get home to Kent, arriving at 0445. Right now, I never want to travel again!
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To understand Russia's war in Ukraine, look to the first post-Soviet war in Chechnya.
on Grozny to Bakhmut, and what may lie ahead.
Listen to the podcast:
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New episode of History As It Happens:
A tour de force by from Grozny to Bakhmut, and what the "Russian way of war" means for the future of Ukraine.
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Hoy publica la entrevista que le hemos hecho a a propósito de su último libro "Todo es un arma". Hablamos de qué es el 'poder oscuro', del crimen organizado ruso como vulnerabilidad en España, y por supuesto de Rusia y Ucrania
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