Turkey's quiet push to entrench itself near Aleppo forced Israel's hand. The strike worked, and now is not the time to accept limits on Israeli freedom of action – in this neighborhood, people tend to listen only once actions start speaking.
Ankara's covert military influence in Syria has been on Israel's radar for over a year – whether it's APCs given as a "gift" to Al-Sharaa or Turkey's aerial capabilities. The strike on Abu al-Duhur signals an end to Jerusalem's containment strategy.
The IMF projects Iran's economy will shrink sharply this year, contracting somewhere between 5.4% and 6.1%. Nominal GDP has already plunged around 29% from 2017, and the dollar now buys 2 million rials. However, a parallel, sanctions-proof economy may be maintaining the regime. Only one thing would make the regime buckle.
A July 30 study by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs concluded that the PA's policy of financially supporting terrorists “materially facilitated” Hamas’ ability to “prepare for and execute” the massacre. The author of the report, IDF Lt. Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch, hopes his study will provide a still stronger basis for lawsuits against the PA.
Nearly three years into the war, Israel remains locked in open conflict on four fronts: Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. All are interconnected and, to varying degrees, directed from Tehran. In the near term, every scenario is looking toward two dates: Israel’s elections in late October and the US midterm elections in early November.
The US can inflict unprecedented damage on Iran, but that would not necessarily deal a strategic blow. The regime in Tehran, for its part, is prepared to pay a heavy price. These are the three options Trump considered, and the calculation that led him to cancel the strike, at least for now.
It does not fire missiles, but Qatar wields extensive influence that endangers Israel by funding, propaganda and its ties with terrorist organizations. Experts warn Qatar poses a strategic threat.
In the Middle East, a good agreement is measured not by the intentions expressed on the day it is signed, but by its ability to withstand violations the next day. From the jihadists who still threaten the Israel-Syria border, through Iran and Hezbollah, to the Druze: The points Israel must insist on, and why time is not on its side.
The terrorist organization is not truly prepared to give up power as long as it refuses to disarm. The proposed framework seeks to place responsibility for dealing with the chaos in Gaza on a technocratic committee, while Hamas frees itself to continue rebuilding its military capabilities. Despite many eliminations, a group of senior Hamas officials in Gaza has survived so far, and does not intend to relinquish its light weapons or tunnels.
The draft crisis is pushing the integration of Haredi Israelis into broader Israeli society further away and radicalizing the discourse. How did things move from the historic agreement with Ben-Gurion, which granted a small group of Torah scholars an exemption from military service, to cries of “War!” and the demonization of the State of Israel?
