THE MINISTERIAL SHAKE-UP announced by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull belatedly removes some of his foreseeable personnel problems and promotes new talent ahead of a rumoured 2 July election; for the most part, Turnbull’s team merits commendation, as does his decision to promote some conservative Liberal MPs, although a couple of the appointments raise eyebrows and at least one deserves rigorous scrutiny moving forward.
Most readers know that I believe Malcolm Turnbull committed an error of political judgement by not going to the polls in December to obtain a fresh mandate for his government; even so — with rumours filtering out this week of a 2 July double dissolution — the reshuffle he was involuntarily obliged to undertake seems safe, a positive to take into the coming election campaign, and with a couple of possible exceptions is highly commendable.
With anno domini induced resignations of deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss and Trade minister Andrew Robb last week, yesterday’s reshuffle was never going to be a cursory patch-up job; added to those, of course, are the sackings of former Cities minister Jamie Briggs and Human Services minister Stuart Robert and the belated summary departure of Special Minister of State Mal Brough, and with five vacancies in hand the scope existed for Turnbull to undertake comprehensive refinement of a team already extensively reshaped in the aftermath of the Liberal leadership change in September.
I would have liked to see Wyatt Roy and Christopher Pyne — continuing ministers under the same cloud of Police investigation as Brough — dismissed from the frontbench, like Brough, until or unless those inquiries conclude in their favour.
But given Turnbull’s apparent predilection to roll the dice on such matters it should surprise nobody that both men get to stay, although Roy and Pyne, like Brough and Robert (if not, admittedly, Briggs) provided crucial votes in the enterprise to roll Tony Abbott — more on that later — and as much as Malcolm’s reshuffles have been about “merit” and “21st century government,” he has in fact proven himself happy to retain latent potential liabilities in the ministerial tent: so long as they support him in terms of the Liberal leadership.
You don’t see Kevin Andrews or Eric Abetz kicking around the Cabinet room these days.
But once again, the Liberal Party has shown itself superior to the ALP in terms of managing and acting upon instances of improper and/or unbecoming conduct, with Briggs and Brough rapidly sidelined late last year — even if Brough’s re-entry to Cabinet had been foreseeably premature, in light of ongoing federal Police investigations — with Briggs immediately removed when allegations of misconduct surfaced, and with Stuart Robert sacked this week after a short investigation conclusively found he had breached the government’s code of ministerial conduct.
And in this sense, and remembering the other two vacancies were always going to happen at some point as Robb and Truss retired, the contention of opposition “leader” Bill Shorten that the Liberal Party is “falling apart” is a fatuous one indeed, and reeks of the knowing desperation of a hunted figure en route to the electoral slaughterhouse.
Readers can access the full list of Turnbull’s second ministry here, and some additional coverage here and here.
Some of the best promotions in this reshuffle — perhaps unsurprisingly, given the rancour between pro-Turnbull forces and elements of the conservative wing of the Liberal Party — have come from the ranks of the National Party; new leader Barnaby Joyce retains his responsibilities for Agriculture and Water Resources, and his new deputy (and Cabinet entrant) Fiona Nash becomes something of a “regional all-rounder” with the addition of Regional Development and Regional Communications to her existing Rural Health portfolio.
Also, the addition of fellow Nationals Matt Canavan and Darren Chester to the ministry, at a time the junior Coalition partner is enjoying something of a glut of talent, is to be applauded.
Interestingly, the Queensland Nationals — long the party’s strongest state division — have been overlooked for Cabinet-level representation in the wake of Truss’ retirement: perhaps a reflection of the mess the division made of the amateurish attempt to steal an additional lower house seat from the Liberals by enticing failed minister and turncoat Ian Macfarlane to jump ship.
And the decision to confine Tasmanian representation to a single junior ministerial berth — Tourism minister and Abbott loyalist Richard Colbeck — may raise a few eyebrows in the context of a state the Liberal Party seems well placed to secure at least an additional Senator and perhaps a fourth lower house seat whenever the coming election is held.
But overwhelmingly, this reshuffle excises most of the political headaches that have bedevilled the Turnbull government over the past few months, whilst continuing the process of harnessing some of the embarrassment of riches on the Coalition backbench.
A double dissolution election on 2 July makes enormous sense on one level: the backdating provisions in the Constitution mean that any short-term Senators elected would lose the sum total of one day from their six-year terms, as their tenures would be backdated only so far as the day before the election; it may be a moot point that I think biting the bullet on an election for both houses of Parliament as soon as possible would be the better course of events, but it seems Turnbull has mostly made a solid fist of the reshuffle forced upon him by a couple of retirements, a couple of predictable sackings, and a quiet resignation from a minister who should never have been appointed in the first place.
At least not until the Feds had finished with him.
There is, to be sure, some real talent tied up in Malcolm Turnbull’s latest reshuffle.
Forgetting completely for a moment any divisions between liberal and conservative groupings within the Liberal Party, the promotions of Steve Ciobo, Nash (Nat), Chester (Nat), Dan Tehan, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, Canavan (Nat), Alan Tudge, Angus Taylor, Keith Pitt (Nat) and Craig Laundy all seem — both on paper and on objective assessment — to be entirely in order, and quite substantiable where questions of merit are concerned.
I echo the concern that appointing Taylor — a potential Liberal leader and Prime Minister down the track — as Cities minister, resident as he is some 200km from Sydney and the holder of a rural electorate — is something of an own goal. But then again, Turnbull has already shown he has form as Prime Minister for hanging potential rivals out to twist in the wind, as was evidenced by his enthusiastic championing of a “debate” on GST reform only to retreat, just as Treasurer Scott Morrison energetically took the cause in hand, to a position that there was no “case” for such a change.
Similarly, Josh Frydenberg — a Liberal to the party’s Right I am watching with (hopeful) long-term interest — failed to advance at all at this reshuffle, although given the last one was just five months ago we can perhaps forgive Turnbull the oversight this time.
For the most part, this has been a solid reordering of government ranks, although Turnbull wouldn’t want to have to make a habit of it: his team, circa September, was meant to provide “a 21st century government and a ministry for the future.” Yet less than 26 weeks later, here we go again.
The risk is that a couple of primed incendiary devices — Roy and Pyne — explode without warning, and independently of anything Turnbull can do to stop them; that’s the risk, and as he did with Brough, Briggs and Robert, Malcolm has cast his lot upon the die.
Provided they don’t, Turnbull will have no problems at least where his own troops are concerned; events have a funny way of just happening, of course, and with an unprincipled lout like Shorten on the loose, literally anything is possible.
I think Malcolm has nailed — again — the necessary reshuffle of his ministry that has been enforced upon him.
And in truth — questions of moderates and conservatives again cast aside — it contains only one truly objectionable appointment.
Some months before the change in the Liberal leadership change last year, it filtered south to me that people had become aware that Ryan MP Jane Prentice was intending to back any move against Tony Abbott, in part (as the story goes) because a Turnbull leadership was where she believed her prospects of becoming a federal minister lay.
In the interests of disclosure I should note that not only have I known Jane for well over quarter of a century but that we share a deep, residual and mutual dislike of each other.
But even so.
On Saturday — with the exception of WA MP Ken Wyatt — Prentice became the second-oldest minister in the government and, at 63 in June, the oldest first-time appointment in this intake of new ministers; with no prospect (thankfully) of ever advancing to any kind of leadership role in the Liberal Party, the nicest thing I can say is that she is taking an opportunity away from a younger person with a career ahead of them.
Especially a younger woman, with outstanding and more substantial candidates like Sarah Henderson, Karen McNamara, or the Nationals’ Bridget McKenzie all overlooked yet again: and in McKenzie’s case, the recent brouhaha over her living in the Melbourne suburb of Elwood rather than the rural town of Bendigo pales in comparison to the investigations in which Roy and/or Pyne may yet be called upon to account for themselves — and they nonetheless managed to find places in Turnbull’s team.
Unlike Wyatt — who boasts Aboriginal heritage — there is no “special circumstance” other than a sense of entitlement to justify Prentice being given a ministerial berth.
There is no justification for Prentice’s appointment on the basis of gender; again, there are plenty of younger, arguably better-credentialled women with more to offer in the long term than Prentice who have been overlooked: and anyhow, the whole notion of tokenistic quotas, as repulsive and distasteful and patronising as it is, finds no advertisement of substance in this case.
There is nothing in Prentice’s biography on her own website (and thus, presumably at least vetted by her) to suggest any professional experience whatsoever in the field of the disabled over more than 40 years, but this has proven no bar to her being named as Assistant Minister for Disability Services.
At nearly 63 and with minimal parliamentary experience to speak of, Prentice — unlike Morrison or Frydenberg or Taylor — is hardly the future of the Liberal Party or, God forbid, of Australia itself.
Ten years presiding over the collection of garbage cans and fixing potholes on the Brisbane City Council are nothing compared to serious affairs of state at Commonwealth level.
But taken on face value, she has been given an impossible assignment, and if we forget about being “nice” and instead deploy brutal candour, the new job she has been given in return for backing Turnbull is no more than a shit sandwich she is unlikely to be able to stomach.
An “assistant minister” in the field of Disability Services is effectively charged with making Social Services minister Christian Porter look good in the area of the National Disability Insurance Scheme; we look forward to Prentice either proving the NDIS is fully costed and affordable (which, of course, it is neither) or making it so.
This task becomes impossible when it is considered the only ways to do so are savage cuts to other government spending (which would be made by persons other than Prentice) or vicious tax rises (which Prentice has no authority to enact) to cover the annual $22bn price tag of the scheme.
No further defence will be forthcoming from this column to the effect the NDIS funding shortfall was Labor’s fault, or that Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan should never have legislated the thing as a budget booby trap to ensnare the Liberal Party when it became inevitable Labor would lose in 2013: if Prentice is as capable as she always insisted when I knew her — usually looking contemptuously down her nose and speaking in tones of extreme, born-to-rule condescension — she will nail this assignment.
I can’t wait.
If ever there was a case of baldly rewarding people for their vote in a leadership ballot, this is it. If I were a leader or advocate in Australia’s disability community, I’d be outraged this morning to find out whom Turnbull had decreed I must work with in order to gain access to his government.
And in the extremely improbable eventuality that Prentice finds $22bn per year, every year in perpetuity, to deliver the NDIS, this column will publish a fulsome apology and retraction of its criticism.
Common sense, and knowledge of the beast, conspire to dictate that that is one article I will never have to bother drafting.
We’ll keep an eye on Prentice, and dutifully report on any genuine achievements (or, more to the point, lack thereof) she notches up. I predict that even if she survives in the ministry beyond the election, it won’t be in her current position.
Someone will rescue her from that if she gets that far.
Like so many things Malcolm Turnbull touches, this appointment has the capacity to be a fiasco for the government.
But provided Malcolm can keep the lid on the handful of jacks-in-the-box he has seen fit to include in his ministry once again, he may yet make it past a difficult budget to a July election — and a resounding win — in spite of the lengthening odds that increasingly seem stacked against him by his own misjudgement.