Archive for the ‘predictions’ Category

Pressure Warming Effect featured on WND: Study blows greenhouse theory out of the water

Posted: July 9, 2017 by tallbloke in climate, innovation, Maths, Measurement, modelling, Natural Variation, physics, predictions, radiative theory, research, solar system dynamics, Temperature
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Ned and Karl have finally got some big exposure to the general public for their paradigm shifting breakthrough in geo and astro-physics. World Net Daily front page stories are read by over a million people. This is a great step forward for recognition of their work.
ned-karl-wnd3

Study blows Greenhouse Theory out of the water

7-9-2017 By Alex Newman for World Net Daily

BOZEMAN, Mont. – A new scientific paper contends the entire foundation of the man-made global-warming theory – the assumption that greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere by trapping heat – is wrong.

If confirmed, the study’s findings would crush the entire “climate change” movement to restrict CO2 emissions, the authors assert

Some experts contacted by WND criticized the paper, while others advised caution.

Still others suggested that the claimed discovery represents a massive leap forward in human understanding – a “new paradigm.”

The paper argues that concentrations of CO2 and other supposed “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere have virtually no effect on the earth’s temperature.

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Foundations of Greenhouse Theory Challenged by New Analysis of Solar System Observations

Posted: June 1, 2017 by tallbloke in Analysis, Astrophysics, atmosphere, climate, data, Maths, Measurement, modelling, Natural Variation, physics, predictions, radiative theory, research, solar system dynamics, Temperature, Thermodynamics
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N-KFig_4

Back in late 2011, the Talkshop splashed the story on a ‘Unified Theory of Climate’  developed by PhD physicists Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller. They set out to show that the ‘greenhouse effect’ is not a phenomenon arising out of the absorption and reemission of outgoing long-wave radiation by the atmosphere (as thought for 190 years), but is a form of compression heating controlled by solar radiation and the total atmospheric pressure at the Earth’s surface. Pressure is in turn a product of the gas mass contained in a column of air above a unit surface area, and the planet’s gravitational effect on that mass.

It’s been a long and treacherous road involving many revisions and refinements of the original study. On several occasions the manuscript was rejected unread, but Ned and Karl have finally got their greatly improved and expanded paper published. This latest version is a tour de force strengthened by the rigors of criticism from an army of peer reviewers at several journals along the way.

Using dimensional analysis (a classical technique for inferring physically meaningful relationships from measured data), they show that the long-term global equilibrium surface temperature of bodies in the solar system as diverse as Venus, the Moon, Earth, Mars, Titan and Triton can accurately be described using only two predictors: the mean distance from the Sun and the total atmospheric surface pressure. This type of cross-planetary analysis using vetted NASA observations has not been conducted by any other authors. It represents the first and only attempt in the history of climate science to assess Earth’s surface temperature in the context of a cosmic physical continuum defined by actual planetary-scale observations. The result is a new insight that planetary climates are independent of the infrared optical depth of their atmospheres arising from their composition, and that the long-wave ‘back radiation’ is actually a product of the atmospheric thermal effect rather than a cause for it.

dimensional

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GWPF: Computer predictions of climate alarm are flawed

Posted: February 21, 2017 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Critique, Forecasting, predictions, Uncertainty
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Image credit: relativelyinteresting.com

Image credit: relativelyinteresting.com


Results so far from climate models are very unconvincing, despite huge resources of manpower and technology.

London, 21 February: Claims that the planet is threatened by man-made global warming are based on science that is based on inadequate computer modelling. That is the conclusion of a new briefing paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF).   

The report’s author, eminent American climatologist Professor Judith Curry, explains that climate alarm depends on highly complex computer simulations of the Earth’s climate. 

But although scientists have expended decades of effort developing them, these simulations still have to be “tuned” to get them to match the real climate. This makes them essentially useless for trying to find out what is causing changes in the climate and unreliable for making predictions about what will happen in the future. 
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As polar bear populations fail to decline with sea ice, message of doom intensifies

Posted: December 21, 2016 by oldbrew in alarmism, media, predictions, Psychobabble
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The climate alarm industry could be heading into a recession next year – unlike the polar bears they’re so fond of wailing about.

polarbearscience

If 10 years of summer sea ice levels expected to kill 2/3 of the world’s polar bears by 2050 hasn’t had an impact, why would anyone expect a bit less summer icewill do the job?

sea-ice-prediction-vs-reality-2012_polarbearscience

The more the polar bears fail to die in droves, the shriller the message from activist polar bear researchers – via willing media megaphones – that the great death of the bears will soon be upon us, just you wait and see!

Some big media guns were out this past week spreading the prophesy of doom fed to them by the polar bear researchers most committed to the “threatened with extinction” narrative: The New York Times, The Atlantic, The Guardian. The desperation is becoming palpable as the public catches on to their epic failure.

In 2007, the sea ice dropped to a level the experts said wouldn’t be reached…

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Arctic sea-ice melt reporting: the amazing flip-flops

Posted: September 18, 2016 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Idiots, predictions, sea ice
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Excellent. So climate alarmists trumpeting Arctic ice melt are prone to farcical exaggeration at least, utter rubbish at worst. Who knew?

Trust, yet verify

Two posts ago, on the subject of another claim of an ice-free Arctic published in the Guardian, the discussion arose whether the journalist realized that he quoted someone with a poor track record in that matter. Commenter Chrism56 alerted me that the journalist (Robin McKie) already had written articles in the past on this subject, so he should have known that there were issues with the credibility of this claim.

The link that was provided went to an article from 2008 in which McKie reported about the claim of an ice-free Arctic that back then was expected five years further in the future.

McKie 2008-08-10

The claim was made by Serreze, Maslowski and Wadhams. Apparently he should know about the botched prediction in the meanwhile.

I became curious whether there were more articles written by McKie on this topic and also how he wrote about it in say 2013, when it became…

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Obama’s Electric Car Fail

Posted: September 16, 2016 by oldbrew in Politics, predictions, Travel
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Donna Laframboise does the unthinkable and waves one of the US president’s promises – or predictions – under his nose, pointing out its hopeless failure to come true. Trying to get people to limit their travels to 100 miles or so is about as likely to succeed as nailing jelly to the wall.

Big Picture News, Informed Analysis

Only 40% of Obama’s electric cars are on the road. None meet the 150-mile-per gallon standard he promised.

obama_electric_car_promise1

Last year 17.5 million cars, SUVs, and light-weight trucks were sold in America. A mere 115,000 of those (two-thirds of one percent) were electric vehicles. Let’s press the rewind button back to the 2008 presidential campaign trail, in which Barack Obama declared:

we will help states like Michigan build the fuel-efficient cars we need, and we will get one million 150 mile-per-gallon plug-in hybrids on our roads within six years. [bold added]

In March 2009, two months after he became President, Obama delivered a speech at the Southern California Edison Electric Vehicle Technical Center in which he similarly asserted:

we will put one million plug-in hybrid vehicles on America’s roads by 2015.

In these closing months of 2016, it’s reasonable to ask how those green promises worked out. In…

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Eli Rabett bets on Arctic ice against Tallbloke – hopes to keep fur coat

Posted: August 25, 2016 by tallbloke in predictions, sea ice, solar system dynamics
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rabett-bet

New Dawn Of Truth: London Climate Change Conference 2016

Posted: August 1, 2016 by tallbloke in Analysis, Astronomy, Astrophysics, atmosphere, climate, Critique, Cycles, data, ENSO, Forecasting, IPCC, LOD, Measurement, methodology, modelling, Natural Variation, ozone, physics, Politics, predictions, research, sea ice, Solar physics, solar system dynamics, Temperature, Thermodynamics, Tides, volcanos, waves, weather, wind
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It’s finally happening. Thanks to Herculean efforts by Niklas Morner, we are presenting a two-day conference in central London on the 8-9th September. Speakers are coming from all over the world to present their work, and it is not to be missed!

conf-logo

Take the 8-9th September off work and join us for this historic event. The first UK climate conference in decades which will counter the scaremongering of the IPCC with a cool, rational approach to the study of climate change, presenting alternative explanations, new data, theory and commentary. Topics include solar-planetary theory, causes of ENSO, sea ice extent, sea level, ozone depletion, volcanos, regional forecasting, journal gatekeeping and many more.

The list of contributors is long, we are packing a huge number of presentations into this two day event. Speakers include Niklas Morner, myself, Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller,  Nicola Scafetta, Per Strandberg, Jan-Erik Solheim, and thats before lunch on day one! Piers Corbyn will be there! So will  Christopher Monckton! See the full programme and the extended abstracts in this 35 Megabyte document for full details. There are also some travel and booking details on the geoethic.com website. An updated version is available on reseachgate

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The Sun comes out for #Brexit

Posted: June 13, 2016 by tallbloke in Accountability, EU Referendum, Politics, predictions, Solar physics

The first UK newspaper to commit to a position on the EU referendum, The Sun, backs Brexit. With the opinion polls moving in that direction, and the odds shortening by the day, the mood of the country is palpably changing. I’m working long days to help make this happen. I want my country back.

Sun-leave

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R.J. Salvador: Bi-monthly LOD model update

Posted: June 3, 2016 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, LOD, modelling, moon, Natural Variation, predictions, solar system dynamics, waves, weather, wind

Two Months ago, solar system dynamics researcher  R.J. Salvador gave us an update on the performance of his length of day (LOD) model. Based on our planetary theory, the model has performed well so far, showing aberrations from the real world data within two standard deviations on a couple of occasions, but mainly tracking the model projection very closely indeed. Here’s the latest plot.

LOD model May 1 update

Rick says:

The model is within range. Even in the correlation period there are these wobbles where the actual deviates from the model by 2 std dev. We may have to wait until the seasons change again to know if the deviation widens or closes. I will update it again in two months.

I wish all the best for Tim.

Good luck with your BREXIT campaign. 

It’s going to be fascinating watching further updates as they arrive for signs of planetary periodicity in the aberrations and/or trying to correlate them with major weather patterns which could be responsible.

Unsettled science: Antarctic climate confusion 

Posted: June 1, 2016 by oldbrew in modelling, predictions, research, sea ice
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Gentoo penguins at Palmer Archipelago, off the Antarctic Peninsula [image credit: Liam Quinn / Wikipedia]

Gentoo penguins at Palmer Archipelago, off the Antarctic Peninsula [image credit: Liam Quinn / Wikipedia]


Looks like Antarctic climate warming scares have gone into a death spiral. What a shame after all those man-made attempts at doom and gloom, and harsh attacks on critics.
H/T GWPF

A group of scientists have just published a study that tries to explain why Antarctica isn’t warming as predicted, and its ice isn’t melting as climate models say it should be.

As Reuters reports, the researchers identified flows of cold, deep water as the primary reason our models are failing down there: A persistent chill in the ocean off Antarctica that defies the global warming blamed for melting Arctic ice at the other end of the planet is caused by cold waters welling up from the depths after hundreds of years, scientists said on Monday.

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Blank sun provides more evidence for solar-planetary theory

Posted: May 15, 2016 by tallbloke in Cycles, predictions, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

blank-sun

The Sun usually exhibits ~11 year cycles of activity, but the historical sunspot record shows quite a large variance on this average figure. Here at the Talkshop, we have been developing a theory which relates solar activity levels to the motion of the planets, and in particular the motion of Jupiter, Earth and Venus. Simple indexes of ‘most aligned days’ were devised by Jean-Pierre Desmoulins, and later by NASA physicist Ching Cheh Hung, which was replicated by Talkshop contributor Roy Martin.

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Self-driving cars may end gasoline era 

Posted: April 30, 2016 by oldbrew in predictions, Travel

Driver-less car [image credit: google.com]

Driver-less car [image credit: google.com]


Or they may not. Robotic futures tend not to work out as predicted, but here’s another one, as DW.COM reports.

One likely roadblock is the amount of electricity required to make it feasible. Another one could be public resistance…

By 2025, self-driving cars could lead to a steep decline in fossil fuels – and in personal car ownership. Smart electric vehicles will pick you up, drop you off, and mostly look after themselves. A realistic scenario?

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These 7 Predictions From The Original Earth Day Were Way Off | The Daily Caller

Posted: April 24, 2016 by oldbrew in alarmism, predictions

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Another crackpot claim was for 200 million climate refugees.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23899195

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

Environmentalists truly believed and predicted that the planet was doomed during the first Earth Day in 1970, unless drastic actions were taken to save it. Humanity never quite got around to that drastic action, but environmentalists still recall the first Earth Day fondly and hold many of the predictions in high regard.
 
So this Earth Day, The Daily Caller News Foundation takes a look at predictions made by environmentalists around the original Earth Day in 1970 to see how they’ve held up.
 
Have any of these dire predictions come true? No, but that hasn’t stopped environmentalists from worrying. From predicting the end of civilization to classic worries about peak oil, here are seven green predictions that were just flat out wrong.

Read the full list here.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/22/7-enviro-predictions-from-earth-day-1970-that-were-just-dead-wrong/

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Climate Model Predictions On Rain And Drought Wrong, Study Finds 

Posted: April 7, 2016 by oldbrew in climate, modelling, predictions, research
Tags:

credit: b3regions.eu

credit: b3regions.eu


Try not to be too surprised. The research recommends everyone to ‘place recent and predicted rainfall-pattern changes in a millennium-long context.’
H/T GWPF

Predictions that a warmer ­climate will lead to more rain for some but longer droughts for others might be wrong, according to a study of 12 centuries worth of data. The study, published today in science journal Nature, found there was no difference between 20th-century rainfall patterns and those in the pre-­industrial era.

The findings are at odds with earlier studies suggesting climate­ change causes dry areas to become drier and wet areas to become wetter.

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R. J. Salvador: Update on LOD model performance

Posted: April 2, 2016 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, LOD, predictions, solar system dynamics

R.J. Salvador has sent in an update showing the performance of his LOD model, which is based on our solar system dynamics theory. He tells us that:

Below is an update of the comparison of actual LOD data to the LOD model prediction from December 1st 2015 to March 1st 2016. The actual data tracks well to the model prediction. There is a deviation from the model from around January 1st to January 12 that is within 2 sigma and then the actual data tracks the model prediction again. I wonder what caused that? I will update the comparison again in two months. So far it is looking good.

LOD model March 1 update_zpsinkh9hbf

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R.J. Salvador: 2016 prediction for changes in Earth’s Length of Day (LOD)

Posted: February 2, 2016 by tallbloke in LOD, Maths, predictions, solar system dynamics

My thanks to talkshop contributor and PRP author R.J. Salvador for sending me an updated prediction for changes in LOD during 2016. This plot has been produced using R.J.s model, which has been developed using the planetary periodicities we have been working on here at the talkshop over the last few years.

Updated LOD Forecast

R.J. has kindly agreed to send a monthly update showing the progress of the model output against IERS observations as the year progresses. This is real science in progress. Creating a hypothesis, building a model, and testing it against reality.

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Tony Thomas: When Scientists Still Did Science

Posted: December 4, 2015 by tallbloke in alarmism, Ice ages, predictions, Temperature

My thanks to Tony Thomas for this illuminating piece of science-history, first published at Quadrant online.

A great embarrassment to the warming-catastrophic community is that 40 years ago the climatology scare was about cooling and onset of an ice age. Warmists today go, “Pooh! That cooling stuff  then was just a few hyped-up articles in magazines. Cooling never got any traction in the real science community!”

Really? Then explain this away…

perito_moreno_glacier_patagonia-sLetter from the Australian Federal Minister for Science, W.L. (Bill) Morrison, to the President of the Academy of Science,  Professor Badger,  January 9, 1975:

Dear Professor Badger,
I am writing on this occasion to enquire if the Academy could assist the Government by examining, and reporting on, claims recently made in the media, and apparently also by competent scientists that the earth’s climate is changing and that a new ice-age could be on the way.

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More headwinds for the UK Met Office

Posted: August 7, 2015 by oldbrew in climate, MET office, modelling, predictions
Tags: ,

[image credit: Richard Austin News Pictures]

[image credit: Richard Austin News Pictures]


Long-time critic Christopher Booker says: THE MORE MONEY THE MET OFFICE GETS, THE MORE INACCURATE ITS DOOM-MONGERING [Date: 07/08/15, Daily Mail]

The performance of the Met Office for which we pay £220 million a year is not just a joke, but a major scandal. And well done the BBC for allowing Quentin Letts, for once, to point this out.

Very surprisingly and somewhat boldly, on Wednesday morning Radio 4 put out a programme by the Mail’s Quentin Letts which ran flatly counter to the BBC’s normal party line on one of its very favourite subjects, global warming.

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New solar model claims 97% predictive accuracy – cooler times ahead

Posted: July 10, 2015 by oldbrew in climate, predictions, Solar physics
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[Image credit: NASA]

[Image credit: NASA]


Another solar theory rolls off the production line – as ever, time will tell if it lives up to its own billing.

A new model of the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat suggests that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s, dropping to conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, reports Ice Age Now.

Beginning in about 1645, the Maunder minimum corresponded with the severest portion of the last
“Little Ice Age.”

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