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Ryan O'Farrell
@
ryanmofarrell
Washington, DC
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////// Crack the Sky, Shake the Earth \\\\\\ Eyes on non-state actors, institutions and failing states - MA @SAISHopkins
- Levant / DR Congo / Elsewhere
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20,344
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1,538
ಹಿಂಬಾಲಿಸುತ್ತಿರುವವರು
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1,684
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 9 |
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Raises important point of what happens to former anti-Assad rebels and tribal fighters who joined the SDF should the SDF make a deal with the regime. twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg…
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 9 |
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National Army factions reportedly launch offensives against HTS from Afrin, but predictably uncoordinated with no apparent Turkish support
-attack from Deir Balut towards Atmeh
-from Ghazawiya towards Derat Izza
-from Burj Haider towards Qabtian al-Jabal
stepagency-sy.net/archives/222798
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 9 |
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The only long-term counterterrorism policy for Syria is relying on a regime whose failures and atrocities and flirtations with jihadists created the crisis in the first place 🤔 twitter.com/joshua_landis/…
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 8 |
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Pretty much. Points towards HTS maintaining control of population centers while other rebels only remain active on frontlines, with no/limited role in governance.
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 8 |
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Seeing reports of FSA units refusing to fight HTS even as commanders issue statements pledging resistance. Says a lot about future Idlib dynamics, as HTS takes towns that these units are based in while FSA continues to man frontline positions with the regime.
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 8 |
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With fast advances in Sahl al-Ghab and Jabal Shashabo, it looks like we're reaching an interfactional end-game in Idlib. The Maarat al-Numan-Ariha pocket appears to be Ahrar/Suqour's last stand, and with it, the last rebel area of any importance that's truly independent of HTS.
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 7 |
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HTS reportedly gearing up to assault Ariha and Marat al-Numaan, the two largest towns still held by the NLF. International highways were to be cleared of HTS according to Astana; seizing the two towns would put HTS in complete control of them.
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 7 |
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Ariha's local council dissolves and forms a new "independent civilian body completely independent of any political entity"; comes ahead of HTS demands that the NLF hand over the city, with HTS imposing its "Salvation Government" on newly seized areas nedaa-sy.com/en/news/10891
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 6 |
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Shedary relied on armed groups including NDC-R to pressure civilians in N Kivu into voting for him, while Rwanda-backed ex-M23 formed vanguard of the recent intake of recruits to FARDC units deployed to repress protests if Shedary is declared winner africa-confidential.com/article/id/125…
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 6 |
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SNA spox Youssef Hammoud reportedly confirms establishment of an operations room for the battle with HTS around Bab al-Hawa; comes amid conflicting reports of whether mobilization is centrally directed or a propaganda stunt by individual SNA commanders radioalkul.com/p230345/
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 6 |
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Important to note that this area has one of the highest densities of civilians and IDPs in the rebel-held northwest. twitter.com/VivaRevolt/sta…
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 5 |
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HTS has had longstanding objectives aimed at neutralizing a Turkish-backed NLF offensive against them and will use current momentum to achieve as many as possible. Collapse of Zenki and no NLF response proved that NLF are even weaker, divided & demoralized than previously thought twitter.com/JensHittrien/s…
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| Ryan O'Farrell ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸಿದ್ದಾರೆ | ||
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Jason Stearns
@jasonkstearns
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ಜನವರಿ 4 |
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The most likely scenario is a protracted, potentially violent standoff that plays out over months in halls of power and in the streets. It could spill over into armed mobilization in eastern DRC. Many civilians are likely to be killed in this scenario (3/4).
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| Ryan O'Farrell ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸಿದ್ದಾರೆ | ||
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Africa Confidential
@Africa_Conf
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ಜನವರಿ 4 |
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#DRC's Catholic bishops, who oversee 40,000 electoral monitors, announced they knew who won the 30 December presidential election, but did not name the winning candidate. @MartinFayulu is the unnamed winning opposition candidate, our church sources say. buff.ly/2RaYazE
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 4 |
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That was the Manbij deal, which Turkey has, uh, not been satisfied with.
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 3 |
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Dont really see how her video is an embarrassment tbh. I was a freshman there when it came out and all it did was make her more popular amongst fellow BU alums
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಜನವರಿ 1 |
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And that simply ending the blockade won't stop the food crisis.
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಡಿಸೆಂ 31 |
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Despite large amounts of food aid flowing into Yemen, the starvation crisis has been fueled by the rampant and systematic theft and diversion of aid, both for profit and as a means of controlling populations apnews.com/bcf4e7595b5540…
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| Ryan O'Farrell ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸಿದ್ದಾರೆ | ||
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Jason Stearns
@jasonkstearns
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ಡಿಸೆಂ 28 |
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Here are the results of our latest polls, conducted simultaneously and separately with @Ipsos_SA @GeoPoll and BERCI (@siscabo). @ida_sawyer @soniarolley @WTBClowes @aaronross6 @DG_Lewis @kimidefreytas @burke_jason @LouiseDewast @Flomorice pic.twitter.com/BJlFJazTz2
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Ryan O'Farrell
@ryanmofarrell
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ಡಿಸೆಂ 28 |
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Lavrov: Russia approaching the impending Turkish operation in Manbij from the standpoint of "eradicating the remnants of terrorists in Syrian territory and restoring the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria" ria.ru/amp/20181228/1…
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