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Patrick Chovanec
@
prchovanec
New York, NY
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Managing Director, Chief Strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management, Adjunct Professor at Columbia SIPA, former biz prof at Tsinghua University in Beijing
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179,890
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2,022
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45,563
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Matthew B
@boes_
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1 ชม. |
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*WHITE HOUSE EXPLORED LEGALITY OF DEMOTING FED CHAIRMAN POWELL
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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2 ชม. |
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When UST yield curve partially inverted in December, it could be attributed to market's belief that the Fed would make a policy mistake by continuing to tighten - which it didn't do. But the fact it's persisted even after the Fed has backed off, I take more seriously.
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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3 ชม. |
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For all the problems the Chinese economy has, I’d take it any day over the Iranian economy.
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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3 ชม. |
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Iran is far more vulnerable IF it is facing a (reasonably) united international front.
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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3 ชม. |
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I say that because there is no firm public or business consensus behind current US trade policy.
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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3 ชม. |
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Economically, the US. Politically, China.
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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3 ชม. |
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China Hawk Paradox as well, at least with some in the Navarro camp of the Administration. twitter.com/nick_l_miller/…
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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3 ชม. |
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Thread. twitter.com/jseldin/status…
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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3 ชม. |
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The policy concern I see is some reprise of what happened with the government shutdown in January, when consumer confidence took a noticeable hit. It has recovered (as I anticipated, given continued job growth), but it caught my attention.
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Unless broad tariffs actually hit the consumer.
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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US businesses seem more rattled by the prospect of tariffs, slowing growth abroad, inverted yield curve, etc. So far that hasn't translated into job layoffs, however, and as a result US consumers seem to be largely shrugging these concerns off.
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Atlanta Fed recently raised its GDP growth projection for Q2 from +1.4% to +2.1%, boosted by a positive retail sales report for May - highlighting how steady consumer confidence, supported by jobs growth and few layoffs, has been a resilient factor bolstering the US economy.
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Never very easy to spot clear trends in Japan's economy, which always just seems to wobble along, never becoming consistently very weak or very strong for too long. 🇯🇵
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Consumer prices (CPI) in Japan for May will be out next week, but they rose +0.1% m/m in April, up +0.9% from a year ago. Core CPI (ex food and energy) also rose +0.1% m/m in April, up +0.6% y/y. 🇯🇵
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Producer prices (PPi) in Japan fell -0.1% m/m in May, up +0.7% from a year ago (down from +1.3% the previous month). 🇯🇵
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Japanese household spending fell -1.4% m/m in April, pulling y/y growth down to +1.3%. The y/y growth rate is weighed down by a -10.5% y/y decline in spending on housing. 🇯🇵
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Japan's Services PMI slipped -0.1 points in May to 51.7, signaling continued modest expansion. 🇯🇵 pic.twitter.com/8uW9JdqvQE
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Japan's Manufacturing PMI fell -0.4 points in May to 49.8, slipping back into contraction territory. 🇯🇵 pic.twitter.com/H6F6Nn1k2X
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Japanese industrial production rose +0.6% m/m in April (after falling -0.6% the previous month), down -1.1% from a year ago. 🇯🇵
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Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
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4 ชม. |
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Japan saw a +5.2% m/m surge in private sector machinery orders in April, pulling the y/y figure back into positive territory at +2.5%. 🇯🇵
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