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Bryan Caplan
@
bryan_caplan
Oakton, Virginia
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GMU econ professor, EconLog blogger, father of 4, author of *Myth of the Rational Voter*, *Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids*, and *The Case Against Education*.
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Gente que sigues
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34.159
Seguidores
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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Typical agnostic academic boilerplate.
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| Bryan Caplan retwitteó | ||
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GMU Economics Society
@EconSocietyGMU
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After a brief hiatus, our blog is back and now biweekly!
To start us off, here's a brief reflection from our own Jace White on our February 26th event with @bryan_caplan and David Balan. Thanks to all involved! Stay tuned for more!
gmueconsociety.wordpress.com/2019/03/05/the…
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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Potentially? Sure. Actually? Little reason to think so.
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| Bryan Caplan retwitteó | ||
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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I very much admired Lucian—& am happy to report that EVERY finding from our forecasting tournaments/prediction markets meets his challenge. It’s ALL a matter of degree: how much better can people get at distinguishing 70/30 bets from 30/70; 60/40 from 40/60; 55/45 from 45/55… twitter.com/charlesmurray/…
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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What @JohnQuiggin says about our European unemployment bet: econlib.org/quiggin-on-the…
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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3 h |
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Won't someone please take this bet? twitter.com/davemabe/statu…
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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4 h |
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German labor market deregulation was already a clear success in 2013. Now it's absurd to deny it. voxeu.org/article/german…
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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I say each set of policies should be weighed on its merits. Labor market regulation is bad regardless of the size of the welfare state. The welfare state makes durable high unemployment more bearable, but also makes rigidities more sustainable.
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| Bryan Caplan retwitteó | ||
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Stephan Jensen
@StephanAJensen
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21 h |
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I think many Europeans wrongly think that a string welfare state should go hand in hand with heavy labor market regulation. IMO the opposite is true - it is precisely when you have a liberalised labor market that you need a welfare state, and it also makes it less expensive.
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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The page has been updated: econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/e321.h…
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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4 h |
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"Usually"???
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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4 h |
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Sorry, I know nothing about this.
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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5 h |
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I haven't studied this closely, but the default story should be that deregulation sparked a trend toward lower unemployment which the Great Recession briefly arrested.
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| Bryan Caplan retwitteó | ||
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markrhill
@markrhill
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18 h |
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When the author writes “The Great Recession barely happened in Germany; unemployment inched up from 7.1% in late 2008 to 7.9% in mid-2009” he’s just stating unemployment rate data, not implying that labor market reforms allowed Germany to avoid a recession.
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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5 h |
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Almost everyone says there was sharp deregulation of German labor markets. I don't know much more.
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| Bryan Caplan retwitteó | ||
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markrhill
@markrhill
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16 h |
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The bet was “the average Eurostat harmonised unemployment rate for the EU-15 over the period 2009-18 inclusive should exceed that for the US by at least 1.5 percentage points,” which it did by a significant margin. Data shows that Germany did significantly better. What changed?
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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5 h |
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My record is still perfect, at least for now.
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| Bryan Caplan retwitteó | ||
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Jon Boguth
@jonboguth
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8 h |
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“I will claim no false certainty; unless I will stake my life on my belief, I am not truly certain – and will admit it.” -@bryan_caplan
econlib.org/archives/2012/…
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
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5 h |
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Poverty's not a good measure either, if the poor are migrants who are doing better than they would have at home.
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| Bryan Caplan retwitteó | ||
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Sasha, the Shark 🏳️🌈🦈
@SashaTheShark
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8 h |
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But poverty in Germany is at its highest since the reunification (IIRC), even though there's less unemployment.
Maybe unemployment alone isn't a good measuring stick?
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