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Matthew B
@
boes_
New York
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博思乐. Covering the Fed and U.S. economy for Bloomberg. Erstwhile Michigander/Michiander. Preparation for this eventuality has been ongoing for some time
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Matthew B
@boes_
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"The recovery has really just started to kick in, in a really strong way, in the last couple of years for a broad set of folks. And so, those folks are really still working their way back from very serious impacts of the Great Recession"—@AbigailWozniak bloom.bg/2Ip03lf
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Bloomberg Economics
@economics
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Bloomberg Next China
@next_china
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China has “tremendous” room to adjust monetary policy if the trade war with the U.S. deepens, People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang tells Bloomberg in an exclusive interview bloom.bg/2IvWZUi pic.twitter.com/QkfM6uP2ao
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 6 |
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Eric Sims and Evan Koenig
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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hey it’s Taylor’s principle we’re all just living in it
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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fair enough, but how does this elide your own critique where average-inflation targeting does not?
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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don’t really understand this line of thinking because it boils down to current leadership abstaining from action because they’re worried future leadership will be more conservative than they are. But what relatively progressive kind of policy maker would ever let this stop them?
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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not sure I totally understand the objections to be honest since (a) no one is paying attention anyway and (b) even if they were it’s like 7th-grade level math
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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the chapter on the Fed in John Kenneth Galbraith’s final book is titled “The Elegant Escape From Reality”
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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classic
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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"The stock market unambiguously goes up. Removal of the bad state is good for stocks via both lower risk premium and higher expected cash flows."
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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"If a promise of a lower policy rate in the bad state lowers probability of bad state, you may not see the accommodation in futures rates. They could increase, since the policy rate in the good state is high."
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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Great point by Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, discussing a paper on the effects of QE: "Monetary policy literature has not focused enough on such effects of removing tail risk because of its focus on fed funds futures (and Treasuries)."
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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remarkable given the 10-year yield went down by about two percentage points over that timeframe!
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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A question for David John from @neelkashkari: "From older Americans' perspective, are we at maximum employment?" John: "I think there is still room for expansion" because some who have retired are now deciding they want to go back to work, for social purposes if nothing else
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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Eric Rosengren asks David John if overshooting the 2% inflation target, like makeup strategies would have, would be a problem for AARP members. John: "Most of them, I hate to say it — this is true for most of the American population — wouldn't be aware of it one way or the other"
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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AARP's David John, on "Transmission of Monetary Policy to the Economy: Beyond the Headlines" panel, says low rates make saving for retirement harder. I still don't understand why not just cut bigger social security checks to everyone instead of Treasury coupon payments to a few
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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So far this panel is turning more into a debate on nominal GDP targeting than average-inflation targeting. @leosven was dismissive of the former in his presentation and Jim Bullard, who advocates it, is pushing back pretty hard from his seat in the audience
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Matthew B
@boes_
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Jun 5 |
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cf. @RichardClarida yesterday on @CNBC: "We are going to have a high hurdle for any major change to the framework"
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