Another late update. Apologies. It must be because winter is a-coming.
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:
The October sea ice volume increase of 2592 km3, according to the PIOMAS model, was pretty much run of the mill. However, two years in the past decade do not fit that bill/mill, as they showed very muted growth during October: 2007 (1637 km3) and, of course, last year with 1648 km3 (things would get even crazier during November). 2017 is still fourth lowest on record, but the difference with 2012, 2016 and 2011 has grown and 2017 is now practically on a par with 2010.
Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:
And here's Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph (including 2007):
To make up for this somewhat belated PIOMAS update (below), I have for you Andy Lee Robinson's latest update of his Volume ice cube 3D video:
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:
Indeed, the lowest amount of sea ice volume, or minimum, was reached a few weeks ago. With 4539 km3 it was the 4th lowest minimum on record. But, of course, after having broken the number for lowest maximum on record back in April, this means total volume decrease for the 2017 melting season was lower than it was at the end of the last 10 melting seasons, coming in slightly higher than 2006 (16,217 km3 vs 16,198 km3):
After the mild winter there was a risk of records being broken all over the place, PIOMAS volume being one of the most conspicuous ones. Just an average of what we've seen in the past 10 years, would have sufficed easily, but it didn't happen, as I explained last month. This graph by Zack Labe, showing monthly temperatures in the Arctic, tells a large part of the story. Lots of red during the winter, but then a reversal in May and June (the melting momentum months), followed by a staggering 29th warmest July and 21st warmest August:
In the latest monthly summary posted on the NSIDC website, we see the atmospheric visualization of the same phenomenon:
Figure 2b. This image shows the departure from average sea level pressure in millibars over the Arctic for June, July, and August in 2017. Yellows and reds indicate higher than average pressures; blues and purples indicate lower than average pressures.
That's the Arctic for you. Nothing is a dead certainty. I hope the expression is ambivalent enough to make you feel more secure. ;-)
As for the past month, 2017 had the slowest decrease for the second month in a row. In fact it was a slight increase of 318 km3 (September is the month of slight increases/decreases), and so the difference with previous years have yet again become smaller or larger, depending on ranking, although 2017 is still fourth overall.
Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:
It was posted on Mongabay yesterday and written by Gloria Dickie.
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At 2017 minimum, scientists ask: Is Arctic entering the Thin Ice Age?
The sun reflects over thin sea ice and a few floating icebergs near the Denmark Strait off of eastern Greenland, as seen from NASA’s P-3B aircraft on April 14, 2012 — the record year for Arctic ice melt, so far. Photo by Jefferson Beck / NASA
The decline of Arctic ice didn’t set a record this year, with sea ice extent coming in eigth after record-setting 2012. On September 13, at the summer minimum, sea ice covered 4.64 million square kilometers; that’s 1.25 million square kilometers more than 2012.
However, that fact was overshadowed by another: experts say what matters most in the Arctic is the total volume of ice — a combination of thickness and extent. 2017 saw summer volumes among the lowest ever recorded.
The Arctic set still another record that concerns scientists: no other 12-month period (September 2016 to August 2017) has had such persistently low sea ice extent.
The Arctic ice is therefore showing no signs of recovery, scientists say, and its decline is likely continuing to impact the Earth’s weather in unpredictable and destabilizing ways.
After 16 months of consecutive record and near-record lows in late 2016 and early 2017, sea ice extent in the Arctic held fast over the summer thanks to more moderate weather and cooler temperatures. As of September 13, sea ice covered some 4.64 million square kilometers (1.79 million square miles) at its minimum, roughly 1.25 million square kilometers (482,000 square miles) more than record-setting year 2012.
Still, while 2017’s summer melt season didn’t break the record, it falls far below the 1981 to 2010 median extent by over 1.58 million square kilometers (610,000 square miles). Moreover, surface cover isn’t everything when it comes to the state of the Arctic — what experts say matters most is the total volume of ice — a combination of thickness and extent, and 2017 saw summer volumes among the lowest ever recorded.
Some scientists are now saying colloquially that the Arctic Ocean has in recent decades entered the “Thin Ice Age.” Since 1980, the average ice thickness come July has decreased by an estimated 120 centimeters (47 inches).
Notably this July, the average sea ice thickness in the Arctic was equivalent to the lowest on record.
Global sea ice area (Arctic and Antarctic) 1978 to 2017. Graphic by Kevin Pluck
ATTENTION: For the time being, the Arctic Sea Ice Forum is inaccessible due to a possible hack. I'll post an update once it's on-line again. Edit: It was a false positive, no hack, ASIF is back up again.
ADDENDUM 9.17.2017: If people have trouble logging onto the ASIF, read this thread.
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:
There's nothing else to do but hope that PIOMAS has it completely wrong, or else pray for lots of cold and cloudy weather in the Arctic this summer.
Well, the weather did its thing and produced one of the biggest turnarounds in the Arctic I have seen so far. I mean, in 2013 the ice managed to return from the brink of death, so to say, but at least the winter preceding it had been very cold. This year the melting season started with a record low volume after an incredibly mild winter.
One consequence of that mild winter, however, was lots of snowfall on the ice and adjacent land masses (see here). This snow likely managed to reflect some of the sunny weather that creates what I call melting momentum during May and June. So, with snow melting out late and not much melting momentum to speak of (yet again), it all came down to what kind of weather we'd be seeing during July and August. Cue low pressure.
Where PIOMAS showed the second lowest volume decrease since 2007 during July, volume decrease was by far the lowest during August, only 2029 km3 versus an average of 2633 km3. Second lowest drop happened in 2013 with 2221 km3. And so 2017 has been overtaken by 2011, the difference with 2012 has increased, and even 2016 - which had a massive August drop - managed to slip 6 km3 under this year's total on August 31st.
Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:
Here's a second guest blog by Sam Hayes, a PhD student from Northumbria University and regular commenter on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. For his studies Sam was part a research expedition in the Arctic Circle.
In his first guest blog Sam described his impressions so far, and in this second installment he goes into more detail on some of the sites that he has visited and the methods the research team has been using. Sam has just about returned home now and will share some more as soon as he has become used to his old, comfortable life again. No more digging! ;-)
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Rock ‘n’ Roll, Ice ‘n’ Slide by Sam Hayes
Our first full day in action was August 11th. In sunshine and mid teen temperatures, we loaded the truck with the day’s gear and headed to the floating dock where we met with our local Inuvialuit boat driver, Frank. He would be our primary means of access to local sites for the next 7 days, as well as assisting us with collecting moorings and other instruments. His wife, Nelly, would even provide us with freshly caught trout and whitefish, yum!
Our hired boat and from left to right, Dustin, Mike, Frank and Vlad
As well as Frank and his 150hp harbour craft, we also had a smaller zodiac with a 20hp motor, great for getting to those tighter, shallower spots — and a whole lot of fun! As with all places in the Arctic, polar and other bears are a risk. At all times, when in the field, you have to take certain items with you, such as bear spray and bear bangers. When you go further afield, an armed wildlife monitor is a legal requirement, and an option we availed of on two separate days. Other than spotting a grizzly while flying out to one site, we never saw anything of concern. Still, better safe than sorry!
Anywho, the first port of call was a site called Peninsula Point, located in Pingo National park, just west of Tuk (https://goo.gl/maps/kFFpc2etsCN2). We took off there in the 2 boats, and the water quickly turned choppy, which made the journey a fun one for those in the zodiac!
Here's another guest blog, sent to me by Lewis Clark, who is also a commenter on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. Lewis describes this year's melting season and how several forecasts have played out in relation to it.
I like the term 'thin ice age'. Thin ice makes it more difficult to rely on conventional wisdom, although this year has proven that a lack of melting momentum during May and June followed by weather conditions during July and August that do not favour melt/export/compaction can still prevent a record, even if volume was at a record low for much of the year.
Thanks, Lewis!
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Which Arctic Prediction Models Are Relevant in the Thin Ice Age? by Lewis Clark
2017 provides a stress-test for Arctic sea ice models. Following an unusually warm winter, the melting season began with record lows (post-1979, the satellite era) for both maximum ice extent and volume. After a slowdown in ice loss, however, measures are back to a near-normal range. This development seems to partly validate some models that predicted a rebound year, but the jury is still out. With a few weeks go before the minimum, large areas of thin ice might yet hold surprises.
This just in, courtesy of Wipneus from the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) sea ice area and extent data thread: an update of the Basin-only graphs. On NSIDC's numbers, both area and extent are tracking close to several low but non-record years. (Note that this excludes Barents and Greenland Seas and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, which collectively aren't likely to alter the trend much in the next month).
Despite the big swing this year in overall ice state, the lack of extreme conditions during the Arctic summer offers a good opportunity to evaluate the performance of prediction models. Weather is always a wild card that can throw off any or all seasonal models in any given year. The head-turning decline in sea ice in 2007, for example, was caused mainly by sunny skies and a prolonged dipole: high pressures over the Beaufort Sea, combined with lows near Siberia, pulled in considerable warmth from the Pacific side and increased ice export to the Atlantic. In 2012 an intense and long-lasting cyclone caused an extra decline in ice cover during August en route to a record low minimum.
Here's a guest blog that was sent to me by Sam Hayes, a PhD student from Northumbria University and regular commenter on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. For his studies Sam is out on a research expedition in the Arctic Circle.
In this first guest blog Sam describes his impressions so far. If he finds the time (you're supposed to do science stuff day and night on these expeditions), he'll go into more detail on some of the sites that are are visited and the methods the research team is using.
Thanks for sharing, Sam!
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Tuk Toy what? by Sam Hayes
For 7 days now I’ve been in Tuktoyaktuk, a small hamlet nestled along the Arctic coastline in the Northwest Territories, Canada (picture 1). In that time, I’ve been soaked by ocean water, covered in mud, sun burned, drenched in sweat, shivered with cold, ached, pained, bled and loved every moment of it!
Map view and aerial view of Tuktoyaktuk
The landscape often appears to be pulled straight from works of science fiction, with lakes, ice cliffs, pingos and all manner of thermokarst wherever you look (picture 2,3). The Inuvialuit people, who account for the majority of the 850 inhabitants, have a culture that is rich, fascinating and generous, with incredible local knowledge and wonderful stories, while the motley crew of researchers, academics, field assistants, pilots, drivers, etc., all with their own interests, stories and personalities make this a fantastic team to be a part of. Of course, lest we forget, there’s also a science element to all this!
Thaw slumping and thermokarst lakes near Tuktoyaktuk
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