Thanks, Jim. And next week I'll be showing how both these forecasts fared (for June 24-29), when compared to what happened from day to day. It's high time I learned some more about weather forecasting. ;-)

You should be able to find it on the Stoat's blog, D.

Thanks, John. Since 2012, we haven't seen a melting season with a high amount of preconditioning through melt ponds. Maybe it's a sign of some negative feedback kicking in. Last year still went low despite this lack of melting momentum, and this year the ice is supposedly thinner than it has been (although the gap between 2017 and 2012 has rapidly disappeared, according to the latest information on the ASIF). And there's already a substantial amount of open water in the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas. So, while there's a lack of melt pond formation, it may be that the influence thereof is becoming less of a factor. In this sense, and as always, it will be interesting to see how things play out this year. Of course, once we get a year that is low volume-wise and heavy preconditioning at the start of the melting season...

Another factor pointing to a possible rebound: concentration is looking better than the same time last year: Paddy, I think that this is another indication of low melt ponding. Normally, when the ice starts to turn bluish, that's also the start of large swathes of green/yellow/pink on the Uni Bremen SIC map. Because these swathes do not stay in the same place (most of the time), they're not really an indication sea ice concentration (ie open water vs ice), but rather of melt ponding.

I'm tempted to think that melt ponding may be less critical this year, because that thinner ice may be going no matter what... That could very well be true, Robert. And I'm definitely not saying that this is putting a spanner in the works of a new record. Let me put it this way: If there was extensive melt ponding going on right now, building up lots of melting momentum for July and August, I'd be willing to bet (big) money that this year all records will be broken. As it is, everything is still open. Melt ponding could still get going, or like you say, it may not matter all that much because so much of the ice is thin. One other thing speaking for 2017 staying a very serious contender, is the current weather forecast. Although the spell of (relatively high) high pressure is now coming to an end, it's not like low pressure is taking over. In fact, it seems a weak dipole is going to form over the coming week. SSTs are also on the rise. I'm waiting for June 15th to come around, as I have DMI SST anomaly maps for that date from 2012 and 2016.

For those who like to share what they think this melting season's outcome will be, two June polls have been put up on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (there will be new polls at the start of July and August): JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum and NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average Happy voting!

Call me in about 15 years. Okay, we'll call you then! Bye. :-P

For those who like to share what they think this melting season's outcome will be, two June polls have been put up on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (there will be new polls at the start of July and August): JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum and NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average Happy voting!

It is time to reflect the sorry nature of sea ice and those intending in seeing it disappear further by their misconceptions. Absolutely, Wayne, and I'm going to try to be back again next year, and maybe try some other stuff as well. I'm quite active on the ASIF, but not having to write hundreds of words every week (besides the hundreds of translated subtitles I make for work) is doing me a tonne of good, mentally. I'm making some progress on the house as well. With a bit of luck I'll be done with the big projects around this time next year. BTW, today I had the honour of appearing on Austrian radio for a couple of minutes to talk about Arctic sea ice, AGW in general and my mother-in-law.

Let me first make clear that I'm not saying that I think that an exponential or linear extrapolation of PIOMAS volume data is correct and that the Arctic will be ice-free for all practical purposes by 2022. There will indeed be a refuge of ice that might be hard to melt. What I'm taking issue with here, is your statement: If the PIOMAS were reliable, it should produce a regression similar to that of the Area, which I consider Area to be the most reliable metric. If one long-term metric goes down much faster than the other, as is the case with volume vs area, by definition regressions or extrapolations cannot be equal. It also doesn't mean that one is better than the other. Just as the Arctic might not go sea ice-free by 2022, it will highly likely not melt out 'several decades' from now either. And no, average thickness doesn't imply a longer regression period either. Just look at 2012, lowest volume and area/extent minimum on record, but average thickness was similar to other years. You could have just one slab of 100 km2 left, but if its volume is 0.15 km3, that means it's 1.5 metres thick, which would be 0.5 m thicker than the lowest years on the chart. So, I don't find that a good argument for saying that PIOMAS is unreliable. It may be unreliable, but not for the reasons you state.

Wade, can you calculate for me the difference in volume and area between a floe that measures 10 km by 10 km and is 1 metre thick, and a floe that measures 10 km by 10 km and is 10 centimetres thick? My calculator says 100 km2 and 0.1 km3 for floe 1 and 100 km2 and 0.01 km3 for floe 2. So, area stays the same, but volume differs by one order of magnitude. Does that perhaps explain the difference in regression? Or, as Peter Wadhams said 10 years ago: "In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly."

I plan to find out what happened in 2010 and come up with a theory./blockquote> Check out the Dosbat blog. Chris Reynolds wrote at length about 2010 wrt PIOMAS.

Wade, could you stay somewhat on-topic (PIOMAS and conditions in the Arctic right now) or else go to the Arctic Sea Ice Forum?

Elisee, first of all, your brush is too broad. This isn't some homogeneous organisation where image can be controlled through hierarchical systems of decision-making. Even though they are bound by a shared concern about the potential consequences of Arctic sea ice loss (and AGW in general), the visitors of this blog and the Arctic Sea Ice Forum are as diverse as can be. Some are alarmist, others are conservative, and so on. Secondly, climate risk deniers who are only interested in deceiving their fellow human beings, will always be able to find some exaggerated quote by some guy. I mean, over 10 years ago some ex-scientist said that there would come a time when British children will never see snow again. This meme is trotted out every winter, and projected onto the entire scientific community and the IPCC. If we are going to worry about that, we might as well stop talking (which is the whole idea, of course). Let them do the lying and misleading, while we each individually try to analyse and speculate about Arctic sea ice loss as honestly as we can. And let the reader judge for him/herself how trustworthy, credible, interesting it is what he/she reads on this blog and the forum. And last but not least, what you're engaging in here, is pure concern trolling. And if there's something I dislike more than climate risk denial, it's that. By your own logic you are providing fodder to climate risk deniers ("one guy tried to warn the stupid alarmist watermelons, but noooo, they wouldn't listen and announced the end of the world in every single sentence they wrote"). So don't do it again and take your concerns elsewhere. Thanks.

When does this normally happen? This switch of HP from "icing agent" to "melting agent"? By mid April, more or less? And the melting ponds? When are they starting to form? Cato, it also depends on the latitude, of course. Melt ponds mostly start forming in May, as far as I know, but really get going in June. This also depends on melt onset, which in turn depends on downwelling longwave radiation (ie when it is cloudy). When a high pressure forms over the Beaufort Sea and stays there for a while (as suggested by current forecasts), at this time of year, it can pull ice away from the Canadian/Alaskan coasts. This open water may not freeze over again and give the melting season in that region an early boost, especially this year as it's mostly first-year ice (no MYI barrier after last year's melt). And of course, it will cause export of thicker ice through Fram Strait.

Yes, it's back up. It was probably Fred who crossed his fingers the right way. Speaking of milestones, this month the ASIF has broken the record of most page views in a month, and is currently at almost 1.7 million page views for March.

I just got behind the computer, sorry. I have notified Fred, who hosts the ASIF on a server somewhere. I'm sure he'll fix things as soon as he can. There had to be a first...

Over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum I have posted an animation of the current sea ice retreat in the Kara Sea (south of Novaya Zemlya), as compared to the retreats in 2011 and 2012. The big question is whether the ice will get shoved back again, or the water re-freezes again (like happened in 2011 and 2012), or whether it will stay open this time. If it does, that will be unprecedented.

That's a great chart that shows the main cause of the lowest maximum on record, Jim. Thanks a lot.