In brief
The dominating position of the Mongolian People's Party in parliament should allow for more efficient policymaking than under the previous Democratic Party, and work on an expansion of the massive Oyu Tolgoi mine will keep economic growth in positive territory in 2017-18. An IMF bailout, provided in early 2017, will stabilise the precarious balance-of-payments position but the government will still struggle to contain the fiscal deficit to a reasonable size.
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Economic growth
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| OECD GDP | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| World GDP | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| World trade | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
Inflation indicators
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| OECD CPI | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Manufactures (measured in US$) | 6.0 | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 59.0 | 61.5 | 64.0 |
| Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | -0.5 | -1.5 | 2.1 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
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Financial variables
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Y 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Y:US$ (av) | 100.5 | 100.2 | 99.9 |
| Rmb:US$ (av) | 7.39 | 7.18 | 7.03 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||