In brief
The Lao People's Revolutionary Party will dominate the political scene in 2017-18. The government will aim to balance relations between China and South-east Asia. A pick-up in global commodity prices from 2017 will support the budget and export revenue over the forecast period. Investment in infrastructure will remain robust, providing support to economic growth. Rising imports of capital goods for infrastructure projects will mean that the current-account deficit remains large.
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Economic growth
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| OECD GDP | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| World GDP | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| World trade | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
Inflation indicators
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| OECD CPI | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Manufactures (measured in US$) | 6.0 | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 59.0 | 61.5 | 64.0 |
| Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | -0.5 | -1.5 | 2.1 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
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Financial variables
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Y 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Y:US$ (av) | 100.5 | 100.2 | 99.9 |
| Rmb:US$ (av) | 7.39 | 7.18 | 7.03 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||