In brief
Despite winning a third consecutive term in 2015, the standing of the prime minister, Dean Barrow of the United Democratic Party (UDP), is suffering due to economic difficulties. Commitment to fiscal reform is weak, and the fiscal accounts will stay in deficit in the medium term. After recession in 2016, the economy will grow weakly in 2017-18. Inflation will stay subdued aided by the currency peg and only a mild upturn in oil prices. The trade deficit will widen as exports decline.
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Economic growth
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| OECD GDP | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| World GDP | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| World trade | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
Inflation indicators
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| OECD CPI | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Manufactures (measured in US$) | 6.0 | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 59.0 | 61.5 | 64.0 |
| Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | -0.5 | -1.5 | 2.1 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
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Financial variables
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Y 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Y:US$ (av) | 100.5 | 100.2 | 99.9 |
| Rmb:US$ (av) | 7.39 | 7.18 | 7.03 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||