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Thomas Rid
@
RidT
Washington, DC
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Johns Hopkins SAIS — ridt.co.
Author of ACTIVE MEASURES, out in 2020 amzn.to/2X0GuZU
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28.502
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John Hultquist
@JohnHultquist
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5 j |
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Another OSINT account based in the US and run by a US citizen suspended. twitter.com/theevanmclean/…
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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I would second Andrew: a proper office chair makes an enormous difference. I could not recommend the Eames Aluminum Group chair more highly, high back, leather, also by Herman Miller in the US (by Vitra in Europe).
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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This makes no sense whatsoever, none pic.twitter.com/7tPdP1En0y
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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And secondly, on pulling the trigger, there’s the wicked problem of ambiguity. Seriously, does anybody think the decision to escalate will be clear-cut? And we haven't even mentioned that we're looking at civilian targets here ... youtube.com/watch?v=JKbDKs…
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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c—pull the trigger: two issues here. One, CYBERCOM does not seem to place great trust in the president here. An incredible quote btw (also civ-mil relations 🔥). pic.twitter.com/yK64Sq6ARL
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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b—cause harm: Russia is big. Bringing down “the grid” is likely to be an exceedingly complex operation, even just in one large city. Scaling an ICS attack is not impossible, but it is likely quite complex in practice. Also, achieving persistence is likely hard in practice.
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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a—keep them: revealing potent “implants” to the adversary means sending the adversary into intense search mode, so “implants” likely will have a sharply reduced shelf-life. Publicity burns capabilities. I find it hard to believe that CYBERCOM would burn top-tier tools like this.
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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All three assumptions are questionable in this case. Let’s take them in turn.
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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Let’s assume the “implant” part of the story is correct for a moment—what about deterrence?
Implants don’t deter on their own. What *may have* a deterrent effect is the belief in the mind of the adversary that the offender can
a—keep them
b—cause harm, and
c—pull the trigger.
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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23 mentions of “the Russian grid” but no specifics. Not great.
Russia has the world’s 4th largest electric power system. 236GW. 20 independent companies. ~440 generation facilities. 496,000 substations. 2.3 million km of power lines. Russia is big. uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/6-527-2969?tra…
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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The NYT does not seem to have access to the “classified details of the operation.” The NSC and the NSA declined to comment on the record.
Note the story isn’t just about “the Russian grid,” but also other potential targets. Likely military targets. pic.twitter.com/9ItrKFiCzr
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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The story makes two big claims: that CYBERCOM has placed “implants” “inside the Russian grid,” and that these U.S. intrusions were intended to be noticed in order to deter Russian decision-makers. pic.twitter.com/0hOVRMeI48
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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16 Jun |
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A few observations on today's "online escalation" New York Times story. I see lots of people making assumptions and jumping to conclusions. Also, why I’m filing this story under to-be-confirmed for now. nytimes.com/2019/06/15/us/…
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Robert M. Lee
@RobertMLee
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15 Jun |
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U.S. Escalates Online Attacks on Russia’s Power Grid nyti.ms/2KiTwMl > it is my stance that targeting civilian industrial infrastructure is wrong. The potential for escalation is one thing, the risk to civilian life is unacceptable. There are plenty valid military targets
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Eliot A Cohen
@EliotACohen
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14 Jun |
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Tremendously proud to be named 9th Dean of @SAISHopkins. Many thanks to President Daniels of @Hopkins & our current Dean @Vali_Nasr. He has grown our faculty, created new degrees and brought us the @KissingerCenter: wonderful accomplishments. bit.ly/2MNvKKi via @HubJHU
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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14 Jun |
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Thank you, I appreciate your note.
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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14 Jun |
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Yes my comment was tongue-in-cheek, probably some bug. Still, a very bad look, especially for a service that is not public by default.
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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14 Jun |
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Oh, very cool undocumented linkedin feature: secret, unremovable connections. pic.twitter.com/RbDfcUJamO
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Thomas Rid
@RidT
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14 Jun |
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Bonus fact: the 535 seat basement theater hall at 555 Pennsylvania Ave was designed to be able to seat both chambers of Congress in case something happened to the Capitol.
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Philip Crowther
@PhilipinDC
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14 Jun |
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Just in: Pentagon video of what it says is an Iranian boat removing an unexploded mine from one of the attacked oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. pic.twitter.com/XSxIPcyV6Q
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