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(((Harry Enten)))
@
ForecasterEnten
I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.
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Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway.
Party ID does not equal Party Registration. #RenegadeJew
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83 896
Туитове
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150
Следвани
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127 551
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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4 мин |
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Needs more soda.
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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16 мин |
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Folks are asking if I know a good psychic hotline... The only one I knew was Miss Cleo. She's passed onto another world, unfortunately. So I can't really help ya.
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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26 мин |
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People want soothsayers. That's not what I or anyone vaguely in my profession are. We are there to tell you the most likely outcome and the chance of that occurring. If you want a soothsayer, call a psychic hotline. twitter.com/THEmontebon/st…
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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34 мин |
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True.
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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36 мин |
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I'm going to keep a red bull by me tonight to remind of Micah and you.
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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38 мин |
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That is, the distribution is asymmetrical... There's a better chance of a BIG miss in which the Dems benefits than a BIG miss in which the GOP benefits. (Most of the GOP misses are ones in which they do a little better than thought.)
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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40 мин |
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The polling indicates that people were clearly burned by 2016. Gallup shows people actually expect the Republicans to maintain House control. That's certainly plausible, but the models suggest a. unlikely. b. there's a skew in the Democrats favor. (1/?)
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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4 ч |
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Adam Berinsky has some great stuff on this.
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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4 ч |
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It's this..... close.
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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4 ч |
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Finally, the forecast was a team effort with @spetulla, @parkermquinn, @bdlacree, @vijithassar, @mathisonian, @bradoyler, and Will Mullery. Please visit the web pages to see their great work! cnn.com/election/2018/… and cnn.com/election/2018/…
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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4 ч |
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LOL.
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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4 ч |
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If we get each individual Senate race, it'll actually be a 50-50 Senate. But because there are so many close Dem wins projected, model expects Dems to lose a few of those... So I'm not entirely sure how to judge forecast accuracy in that case?
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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4 ч |
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As spoken about in the piece, two notes: 1. there is an asymmetric skew in the House. The ceiling for Dems is much higher than the floor is low. 2. There are a lot of close Senate Dem victories forecasted...
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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4 ч |
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Final forecast House median: Democrats 227, GOP 208. Final forecast House average: Democrats 229, GOP 206. Final forecast Senate: GOP 52, Dem 48. Margin of error wide enough for a GOP House or Dem Senate. cnn.com/2018/11/06/pol…
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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6 ч |
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It is here. By this time tomorrow I'll be on my 45th can of diet soda, and some of you will be very happy...
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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11 ч |
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John's on the magic wall... but you'll probably see me around for a little :).
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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11 ч |
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Check the site! Cnn.com/forecast. I got limited time on tv, unfortunately :(.
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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11 ч |
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I really should go to sleep. FWIW, I'm eating some broccolini. I've truly gone mad.
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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12 ч |
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And about to file copy!
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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13 ч |
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Elected. I don't believe the gentleman in the 19th century was elected?
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