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Elbridge Colby
@
ElbridgeColby
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Director of Defense Program @CNAS. Formerly Pentagon, National Defense Strategy, inter alia. cnas.org/people/elbridg… Views expressed my own.
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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I’m not saying he said selective. I’m saying his statement in no way appears to rule that out. He may have other reasons not to be explicit on that point in this format.
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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Right - I think preempt/prevent difference is about imminence. I'm referring to difference between large (essentially total) release vs. selective, deliberate escalation. Putin's comments seem compatible with latter.
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Jasen Castillo
@CastilloJasen
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Yes! All those Russian nukes of various yields and ranges are not there simply for a secure second strike. They give Russia the flexibility for different first options ala Cold War NATO. twitter.com/elbridgecolby/…
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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Preemption in English implies a large attack designed to forestall the other side's ability to carry out its own large attack. That's different from "escalate to deescalate." What is the relationship in Russian? @MatthewRojansky @james_acton32 @ArmsControlWonk
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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Defer on Russian lang, but Putin seems to be talking about policy for large-scale launch - LUA. That doesn't rule out limited use. RF's strategy seems smart - deliberate, selective escalation, coupled with a secure second strike. It's not irresponsible, it's just dangerous... twitter.com/BrunoTertrais/…
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Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3
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8. syysk. |
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So, taking that factor of speed into account, I'd now estimate China's naval strike aircraft as about 3 times as effective at anti-surface warfare as 5 years ago, and about 60 times as effective as 10 years ago. pic.twitter.com/sQ4vewOa13
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Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3
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6. syysk. |
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Also, as I discussed in a related thread, China’s SCS island airfields may significantly increase the reach of these naval strike aircraft in the region. All in all, pretty sobering stuff, IMO. The End. twitter.com/tshugart3/stat…
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Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3
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This is an interesting article, and I certainly wouldn't argue that there is no risk of nuclear conflict if any two nuclear-armed nations got into a full-scale shooting war. But I have some significant issues with some practical aspects of this piece: foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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Superb, careful analysis of the issue from @tshugart3. There is risk but it shouldn’t be exaggerated. This plays into PRC’s hands. They have if anything even greater incentives to avoid large nuclear war than we. nationalinterest.org/commentary/don… & nationalinterest.org/commentary/the… @evanbmontgomery twitter.com/tshugart3/stat…
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Geoff Brumfiel
@gbrumfiel
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Now seems like a really good time to go re-read @ElbridgeColby's piece from earlier this week...
foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
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David Santoro
@DavidSantoro1
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19. lokak. |
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And that one: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
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Eric Sayers
@DEricSayers
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19. lokak. |
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I would add this 2015 monograph to the list. cfr.org/report/revisin…
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ORF
@orfonline
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The era of “understanding” Chinese civilisation and accommodating its myriad “manifestations” in today’s Communist Party⎯controlled China — a line pursued by the Chinese and Henry Kissinger — is formally over.
From Seema Sirohi: goo.gl/dazjLe
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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19. lokak. |
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Historic article helping usher in crucial shift on US policy toward China @elyratner @DEricSayers @niubi @eosnos @CNASdc @dankurtzphelan twitter.com/ForeignAffairs…
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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18. lokak. |
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Hugh White is right that, to deter a rising China, US ultimately needs to be prepared to fight a limited nuclear war. He is wrong that we won't have the resolve to do it. I lay out the case for how we can meet that standard here. @ashleytownshend @Rory_Medcalf @kenj0126 @rdyn51 twitter.com/ForeignAffairs…
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Ian Easton
@Ian_M_Easton
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17. lokak. |
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Damn that's good reading! I just finished it and shared w/ @Project2049 team. Thank you to @ElbridgeColby & congrats to @ForeignAffairs @CNASdc for this remarkable article. Highly recommend spending the time to read it, discuss it, and think about it. cnas.org/publications/c… pic.twitter.com/4U8ikrQFpO
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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17. lokak. |
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Bingo: "We have lots of legacy, middleweight forces that are too expensive for low-end conflict, and ill-suited for high-end combat." These are the types of forces that should be on the chopping block, and now. twitter.com/ToddHarrisonDC…
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Ely Ratner
@elyratner
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“A certain kind of Cold War thinking may be just what Washington and its allies need.”
@ElbridgeColby in November/December edition of @ForeignAffairs offers a nuclear strategy for new era of great power competition. foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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17. lokak. |
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Ok...And??? I actually quoted the Perry line in the piece. How is it rational for anyone to blow up the world over a limited use of nuclear weapons? Deterrence isn't that easy.
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
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17. lokak. |
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Sure thing: I’d cut non nuclear forces irrelevant to high end fight and expensive for low end. Divide isn’t between nuke vs conventional but rather high low mix vs (legacy) middleweight force @ToddHarrisonDC @paul_scharre @SusannaVBlume twitter.com/brianweeden/st…
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