Analysis Of Sea Level Trends At Newlyn
By Paul Homewood
I have been playing around with the sea level data at Newlyn, which I published yesterday, in order to try and detect whether the rate of rise is accelerating.
To recap, this is the tide gauge record since 1915:
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/07/20/uk-sea-level-data-for-2016/
I have plotted the 10-year trends on an overlapping monthly basis:
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/202.php
At the end of 2016, the trend was 3.23mm/yr, ie between 2007 and 2016. This of course is higher than the trend of 1.83mm recorded over the full history of the gauge.
But does this mean that the rate of rise is actually accelerating?
UK Sea Level Data For 2016
By Paul Homewood
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2017
According to the Government’s latest UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, sea levels around the UK are rising by around 3mm a year.
This is an outright lie.
National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios: Cui Bono?
By Paul Homewood
h/t Philip Bratby
John Constable has his own take on the National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios published last week:
National Grid’s recently published Future Energy Scenarios, 2017, is in essence an examination of its own prospects in a period of policy driven sectoral transformation. However turbulent the future appears to be for generators, and however costly for consumers, shareholders in National Grid can sleep easy at night. Things will be fine, for them at least.
Green Jobs Lost As Green Subsidies Dry Up–But Elon Musk Set To Make Billions From Californian Taxpayers
By Paul Homewood
The crazy world of renewable subsidies just goes from bad to worse:
Up to 100 solar PV firms in Japan could face bankruptcy this year, with more than double the number of firms going bust in the first half of this year than the same period in 2016.
Siemens To Shut Canadian Wind Turbine Plant
By Paul Homewood
h/t Francis Bowkett
So much for all of these green jobs promised.
News from BNN:
TILLSONBURG, Ont. – Hundreds of people will be losing their jobs in Tillsonburg, Ont., after a major international company announced the closure of a factory manufacturing wind turbine blades.
Siemens Wind Power Ltd. has announced the factory that employed 340 workers is not large enough to build the sorts of bigger turbine blades the company needs to stay competitive in an increasingly challenging market.
Although the factory won’t be fully closed until early 2018, the majority of staff will feel the effects right away
Siemens says 206 staff are out of work effective immediately, with the rest being phased out over the rest of the year.
The company says it will provide career counselling and job placement support for all employees.
Siemens described the decision as a difficult one, but said the plant was simply not viable given drastic shifts in the demands and profitability of the industry.
http://www.bnn.ca/siemens-to-close-ontario-turbine-plant-cut-hundreds-of-jobs-1.807596
Despite massive subsidies for wind power, companies like Siemens are still struggling to make a profit.
As with much else, the business, and the jobs, are increasingly heading to China.
More Antarctic Melting Drivel
By Paul Homewood
Utter drivel from the Daily Mail, and doubtless the rest of the MSM as well:
- Strong gusts from the east are driving waves of warm water towards the sea ice
- When the warm water washes against the ice, it causes it to melt at a faster rate
- Winds of up to 435mph (700km/h) are caused by climate change, research finds
- Study come days after at iceberg the size of Delaware broke off from the region
The West Antarctic ice shelf is rapidly melting away because of 435mph winds which are driven by climate change, a new study has found.
Berkeley Earth Funding
By Paul Homewood
Whenever sceptical scientists receive funding from fossil fuel interests, cries of foul play quickly arise.
But for some reason, when the boot is on the other foot, it is a case of “move along, nothing to see here”.
Take Berkeley Earth for instance. It was of course set up by Richard Muller under false pretences. Muller had claimed that he was originally a climate sceptic, even telling the NY Times in 2012:
CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.
My total turnaround, in such a short time, is the result of careful and objective analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, which I founded with my daughter Elizabeth.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?_r=0
This was a lie. Way back in 2003. he had stated:
Let me be clear. My own reading of the literature and study of paleoclimate suggests strongly that carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history. It is likely to have severe and detrimental effects on global climate. I would love to believe that the results of Mann et al. are correct, and that the last few years have been the warmest in a millennium.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/402357/medieval-global-warming/
And later in 2011:
“It is ironic if some people treat me as a traitor, since I was never a skeptic”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/03/its-science-not-skepticis_n_1072419.html
This sad little charade from Muller hardly inspires much confidence in the integrity of BEST.
A look at their funders instills even less.
Future Energy Scenarios
By Paul Homewood
http://fes.nationalgrid.com/fes-document/fes-2017/
The National Grid has published its annual Future Energy Scenarios (FES).
It works around four scenarios, but I’ll concentrate on the Two Degrees one.
In particular, this scenario assumes a rapid uptake of electric cars, with 17% of all cars on the road in 2030 being pure electric (EV) and another 13% plug in hybrids (PHEV).
According to the FES, this could result in an an additional 8GW of demand at peak times by 2030, without what they call the highest consumer engagement, in other words charging cars at night. Even with this, peak demand is expected to rise by 4GW.
As we have already seen from another recent National Grid study, such hopes are little more than pie in the sky.
But let’s concentrate on the power scenarios. This is what the FES says about installed capacity:
Arctic Sea Ice Update
By Paul Homewood
Quick Arctic update.
DMI have now issued the June sea ice data, which shows a steady recovery in extent since the low in 2010.
Significantly, this year’s extent of 11.52 million sq km is greater than in 2006, which was 11.50. (Full data here).
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover_30y.uk.php
Temperatures across the Arctic have been consistently below average since the end of April.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
And with the melt season nearly at an end, the Greenland ice sheet has been growing at close to record levels.
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
Donald Trump took the heat, but the rest of the G20’s posturing won’t hide their rising emissions
By Paul Homewood
Booker returns to last week’s G20 story:
Golly, what excitement there was over President Trump’s refusal to sign the G20 communiqué backing the “Paris Accord” on climate change. Trump was in a minority of one against all the other 19 governments (plus the EU) which supported an agreement that the world must phase out fossil fuels. We were even told that the US now stood alone against all the other 195 countries that signed up to that non-binding Accord.
But, just as happened at the time of Paris itself, everyone completely missed the real story. Before Paris, each of the 196 participating countries, as I reported at the time (thanks to that expert analyst Paul Homewood on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog), was asked to submit an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), setting out its energy plans for the years up to 2030.
China, the world’s largest CO2 emitter, is planning to double its yearly emissions
All the major “developing” nations, led by China and India, paid lip service to the conference’s intentions, showing how they would be investing in “renewables” such as wind and solar, so long as they were generously subsidised to do so by the “developed” nations out of a Green Climate Fund worth $100 billion a year.
But they then explained how, to keep their economies growing, they planned to build huge numbers of new fossil fuel power stations, which would lead to a massive increase in their CO2 emissions.
China, the world’s largest CO2 emitter, is planning to double its yearly emissions, by an extra 10.9 billion tons. India, the third largest emitter, will treble its emissions, adding 4.9 billion tons, All the other major “developing” nations, plus Japan and Russia, are equally planning to build more coal-fired power stations.So 13 of the countries which signed that G20 communiqué last week, intend to contribute to what the INDCs show will within 13 years be a 46 percent rise in global emissions.
The only G20 countries left committed to CO2 reductions (by 1.7 billion tons) are now those in the EU, plus Canada and Australia, between them responsible for just 11.3 percent of global emissions. Most of the remaining 88.7 percent is emitted by countries which plan to increase them. Is it surprising that President Trump wanted no part in such a grotesque display of international hypocrisy?
