A longstanding E-Mini S&P target at 2270.00 that we used to predict the spectacular post-election rally and its precise high continues to thwart bulls from making any further headway in 2016. Although we’d been looking to get short near this target toward the end of the week, the futures, true to their nature, have taken a diabolically elusive turn. On Wednesday, they went into a steep dive minutes after the opening bell after taking mincing steps higher for 15 hours. The fact that the plunge came just after the March contract generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart made the sharp reversal even more difficult to anticipate, and to trade. Regardless, shorting by hook or crook ahead of New Year’s Eve still makes sense to me, since the TrumpSanta rally has probably gotten way ahead of whatever positive changes Trump might bring to the U.S. economy in the first six months of his term. An additional reason to expect a tone change on Wall Street next week is that the housing sector looks shaky. The combination of rising home prices due to limited supply, and rising mortgage rates, has already killed re-fi business and threatens to dry up first-time buyers completely. Rising interest rates will also impact auto sales, another key component of the economy. Even if there are a dozen good reasons to be bullish on Trump, the U.S. economy will face some serious headwinds as 2017 begins. Traders should position themselves accordingly, and subscribers should check the chat room ‘Scoreboard’ intraday for real-time trading ideas.
Hunkering Down Ahead of January
Posted Wednesday, December 28 1 commentTouts
$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:197.99)
Posted December 29, 2016, 10:32 pmRick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page
$GCG17 – February Gold (Last:1163.80)
Posted December 29, 2016, 9:28 pm
The last of four February Comex futures contracts acquired by subscribers two days ago should have been exited early Thursday morning at 1149.90 for a total profit of about $3800. The ‘dynamic’ stop-loss at 1149.90 was triggered by a $1.40 drop from the high at the time, 1151.30. Based on reports in the chat room, numerous subscribers actually did the trade, which was posted, and then continuously updated, in real time here and on the chat room ‘Scoreboard.’ Looking just ahead, buyers’ ability on Thursday to blow past the 1155.50 target we’d used for the trade suggests there’s still some pent-up energy ready to push gold even higher. The nearest Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 1164.00 (60-min, A=1124.30 on 12/15; B=1151.70 on 12/27), but if it too gets shredded, so will the key external peak at 1168.00 recorded on 12/14. That would refresh the bullish energy of the intraday charts, making it more likely that 2017 will begin with a bang for bullion. ________ BULLETIN UPDATE (8:19 p.m.): The futures just touched 1164.00. Let’s see if they can get past it!
$SIH17 – March Silver (Last:16.240)
Posted December 20, 2016, 6:06 pmRick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page
$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:116.63)
Posted December 19, 2016, 11:15 pmRick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page
DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:19843)
Posted December 18, 2016, 6:03 pm
The 19727 target we were using to stay on the right side of the rampaging bull has gotten trashed, suggesting buyers are in need of no rest, even after climbing 2550 points from the election night low. A run-up to 20,000 seemed in-the-bag when 19727 got taken out a week ago, but here’s something more ambitious to contemplate: 21,101, the rally target of the pattern shown. Judging from the ease with which the Dow blew past the 19492 midpoint pivot, odds of a further run-up to 21,101 in the first quarter of 2017 look quite good — about 75% in my estimation. The chart also implies that a pullback to the red line would be a ‘mechanical’ buy if it were to occur four to six weeks from now.
$TYX.X – 30-Year T-Bond Rate (Last:3.147%)
Posted December 13, 2016, 9:59 pmRick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page
DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:100.63)
Posted December 4, 2016, 6:04 pm
When you look at the accompanying chart of the U.S. Dollar Index, do you see an ominous head & shoulders pattern? If so, you’ve probably got plenty of company, including dollar bears and chartists who see bogus H&S patterns everywhere they look. I mention this because those dollar bears have ratcheted up the hubris in recent weeks for the usual stupid reasons: collusion by America’s enemies to usurp the dollar’s unshakable global hegemony; an imminent outbreak of inflation; an overdue bear market; seignorage envy. The usual claptrap. When I look at the chart, however, I see a rally so powerful that it not only blew past centennial resistance and a daunting Hidden Pivot at 100.55, it is now tap dancing on those erstwhile obstacles as though intending to launch powerfully anew. Don’t get me wrong, the dollar could still pull back, perhaps sharply, before it embarks on a renewed tear toward targets as high as 120 that I’ve broached here, and in countless interviews, before. From my technical perspective, insatiable dollar buyers from around the world have made chop suey out of an erstwhile granite ceiling. So color me bullish — and a deflationist until the cows come home.
The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.
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