Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

Thursday 2/2/17. As January Goes, so does Dow.

I researched whether the saying, "As January goes, so goes the Dow" is true or false. It turns out to be true 76% of the time.

However, the number is misleading. See the table.

Year Follows January?	Jan Up Year Up	Jan Up Year Down	Jan Down Year Up	Jan Down Year Down
76.1%	53.4%	10.2%	13.6%	22.7%

The Dow Industrials will close higher at year end 53.4% of the time when January also ends the month higher.

The Dow will close lower 22.7% of the time when January also closes down.

Combined (both up and down directions), the Dow follows January's performance 76.1% of the time.

To read the complete article, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/1/17. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator flipped to a bearish signal three trading sessions ago. As a reminder, the signal can disappear for up to a week, so keep that in mind.

Notice that the thin blue line suggests this bearish turn does not have staying power. In other words, the line is closing in on a bullish signal by rising. If a bullish signal were to occur, the red bar would disappear and the green bar in January would remain as the current signal.

I think that scenario is likely.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The above text shows that the stocks I follow didn't budge over the past week. That's a snapshot of the week ago's numbers compared with today's. Between those two points, the lines could have waved up and down.

Both the blue and red lines on the chart were higher three days ago and dropped, ending the sample period where it began.

Based only on looking at the chart, it appears that these flat regions end with a dip before another move up. Maybe that will happen again.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 1/31/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows a descending triangle at A. That broke out downward, of course, in a surprising plunge right at the open.

At B, however, support appeared and stopped the drop. The index has tried to recover and it did, a bit. Tomorrow (Tuesday), if you believe the probabilities, it will try to close the gap.

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I replaced a module on my Sole treadmill this weekend. The "10 minute plug and play" job, according to the service department, took me an hour. The darn board had 13 connectors, five of which required pliers and muscle to yank them off and two were glued to the board.

I'm testing it now and for the next few weeks to be sure it's okay before I return my existing board (if I don't, they'll bill me almost $300). But it sure beats paying someone else to fix it.

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After less than a week's worth of programming, I finished my diabetes program. It told me that my fasting glucose has been rising at an alarming pace over the past week even as my carbs have dropped. The only difference is I added chia seeds to my diet. I'm going to remove them and see if my blood turns back to red.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.