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The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis by eleitl in collapse

[–]stumo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Then we disagree.

The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis by eleitl in collapse

[–]stumo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

World Oil Production at 3/31/2014–Where are We Headed?:

To make matters worse, it is becoming more and more difficult to continue Quantitative Easing, a program that tends to hold down longer-term interest rates. The expectation is that the program will be discontinued by October 2014. The reason why the price of oil has stayed as high as it has in the last several years is because of the effects of quantitative easing and ultra low interest rates. If it weren’t for these, oil prices would fall, because consumers would need to pay much more for goods bought on credit, leaving less for the purchase of oil products. ...

Because of the expectation that Quantitative Easing will end by October 2014 and the pressure to tighten credit conditions, my expectation is that the affordable price of oil will start dropping in late 2014...

At the time of her writing, oil was around $100/barrel. QE ended on October 29th, and the price was around $80/barrel. By the end of the year, the price was hovering around $40/barrel.

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why in the world would private companies file financial statements?

Then why do you think they're profitable in their tight shale operations?

The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis by eleitl in collapse

[–]stumo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course she didn't. She waited until the oil price was headed down, and speculated on how that would be the end of the world.

That's incorrect. In March of 2014, she predicted that the price of oil would collapse as soon as QE ended in the fall. The price declined after summer that year and then really collapsed in October, right as QE ended.

Is what happened to the Romans and the Mayans, starting to happen to Western Civilization (developed countries)? by mad_bad_dangerous in collapse

[–]stumo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The problems of overconsumption and obesity, overexploitation of environment, excessive luxuries, obsessions with sex and violence, massive drug and alcohol addiction problems are becoming the new normal.

The Western Roman Empire collapsed due to economic failure, the Eastern Roman Empire due to a combination of economic failure and foreign invaders, the Mayan civilization due to climate change and crop failure. The problems you list above don't destroy civilizations.

Oh my god I just found this sub and I’m so relieved by Leemo428 in collapse

[–]stumo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No one irl will listen to me.

I try to avoid proselytizing in real life. All it can do is irritate or scare people. Point out existing problems that spell out systemic collapse, learn skills that will be valuable in a less complex world, and leave it at that.

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stonebridge operating

Stonebridge does more than just tight shale. Has their tight shale operations made money? I can't find any evidence of that.

Halwell Company

Likewise, I can find no financial statements from this company indicating that they're cash-flow positive.

The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis by eleitl in collapse

[–]stumo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How many times can you project the same result from the same conditions without the result happening

She predicted the collapse in oil price right to the month. And she doesn't predict "everyone's gonna die next month", she predicts a series of cascading failures over time.

The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis by eleitl in collapse

[–]stumo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

And why not? The conditions haven't changed, so why should the projected result?

The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis by eleitl in collapse

[–]stumo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That "Hacking" section really took me by surprise.

The crisis in Puerto Rico is forcing people to drink dirty water - Islanders are bathing in rivers contaminated with raw sewage and drinking from condemned wells and hazardous waste sites by tim2016 in collapse

[–]stumo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Puerto Rico's economy has never recovered from the period of high fossil-fuel prices. 98% of their electricity comes from fossil fuels.

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are incorrect about making money off of shale production, it has happened before, and is happening now

Can you name two companies that're cash-flow positive?

And expensive isn't the issue when determining profit

I wasn't referring to profit.

Venezuela's oil is more expensive to process than easy to handle stuff, but on a per unit basis it has the ability to bury nearly any oil field on the planet

That doesn't make any difference if the oil is too expensive to process at the prevailing price.

And yes, electric cars, just for starters. And the garbage truck that picks up my trash, the UPS delivery driver, and the school bus that drops the kids off at the school at the end of the street I live on all run on natural gas.

What proportion of transportation vehicles use natural gas globally?

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If prices couldn’t rise, when people cannot afford to pay, we would never have poor people.

I'm sorry, that statement makes absolutely no sense to me. I think you're misunderstanding how supply-demand sets prices. In this article, the "ability" to purchase is what I'm refering to:

The demand schedule is defined as the willingness and ability of a consumer to purchase a given product in a given frame of time.

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No. As oil provides diminishing returns (the peak of "cheap oil", 2005), there's a negative effect on the economy. Expensive non-conventional oils are used for a while, but then declining economic conditions make those unaffordable.

The actual peak is the high point in production.

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

There are hundreds of billions of the easy onshore shale stuff

Yet not a single company extracting it has ever made a single dollar in profit from it. Tight shale is highly expensive oil.

and even more than that if Venezuela would ever clean up their act.

Venezuela's oil is extremely viscous and expensive to process, which makes it unprofitable at low oil prices.

Unfortunately, technology appears to be overtaking the need for the use of that oil

How so? Electric cars? Private transportation is only a smallish segment of total oil consumption, and even then the number of electric cars are a tiny, tiny portion of the number of private vehicles on the road.

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

IMO, peak oil is largely what's triggered this decline.

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There will always be oil in the ground, just not enough wealth to extract it.

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hence prices will rise, followed by a clearly visible economic crisis.

Prices can't rise due to deteriorating economic conditions. Prices only rise on a scarce commodity when there's enough wealth available to support those higher prices. The scenario you describe has already occurred, 2005-2014.

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

https://i.imgur.com/UkzY6Gk.jpg

Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? by stumo in collapse

[–]stumo[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Prolonged low oil prices means declining oil production, so we may well be at peak oil right now.

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Very complex, technical, and expensive deep sea oil rigs sent to the scrapyard at a huge loss. Is there any better sign from the oil industry itself that low oil prices are here to stay? (worldoil.com)

submitted by stumo to r/collapse

Chart of the epic bubble in Vancouver house prices. by mark000 in collapse

[–]stumo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Vancouver is a special case when it comes to real estate. A huge influx of Canadians from other provinces, very little space for the urban centers to spread into, at least without paving over farmland, and a prime target for real estate speculation from Asia and elsewhere.

When will the end of "growth" happen? by Personal-Burgers in collapse

[–]stumo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Well, the population of the Italian Peninsula at the start of the third century was about five million. A century later, it was one million. The population of Rome itself went from a million to about 30,000 in the same time period. It didn't regain its former levels until after we started utilizing fossil fuels.

Once a complex society fails, it really fails, and a lot of people die simply because the things that were keeping the population levels high don't exist anymore. Think what might happen in industrialized cities once the fresh water systems start to fail, for example, or when lack of wealth ends the oversight of food production standards.

When will the end of "growth" happen? by Personal-Burgers in collapse

[–]stumo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, I'm more of an anarchist bent as well, or used to be, but I think that the theory goes that as long as the vanguard remains committed and politically aware, they make the appropriate decisions to steer things toward global communism. To the casual political observer, China seems to do a better job than most of trying to prevent a corrupt political class (see their recent crackdown on "corruption", code for people getting stinking rich, and their recent legal changes to prevent investors from hiding their wealth in offshore real estate investments). They've certainly adopted some elements of market economics to keep their economy from being crushed by outside elements, but I think most people overlook the fact that nearly all of their primary industries are under direct control of the communist party, and that they can and have rolled back many of their market reforms when they see fit.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Marxist-Leninist, but I do think that the story that they've gone capitalist is way off the mark. I mean, the party dictates the value of their currency. You don't get much stronger state control of the economy than that.

When will the end of "growth" happen? by Personal-Burgers in collapse

[–]stumo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because socialist political entities don't have to practice communism, they instead have to be striving toward a condition under which a communist society is possible. Different forms of socialism have different roads toward a communist society, but not one of them is so naive to think it possible immediately. Even the closest forms (Catalonia 1936, Paris 1871, Ukraine 1920) were soundly conquered by external forces.

China, being Marxist Leninist, believes that an educated vanguard (the Communist Party) should guide society to the point where communism is possible. The preamble to their constitution even states that they are aiming for an eventual communist society.

In the last fifteen years or so it's been popular to say that China 'isn't really communist" because of market reforms and state capitalism. However, it's pretty obvious from the party's behaviour in the last five years that they aren't the free-market-loving comrades that many thought - reforms have been rolled back and the party is in very firm control of the economy.

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