Babak

@TN

Připojil se březen 2007
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  1. 13. 9.

    sorry, the second one (31.3%) should be bearish - not neutral, the last one (35.6%) is neutral hope that clarifies it

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  2. 13. 9.

    Weekly AAII US retail investor survey returns to neutral with all three categories in the 30s: bullish 33.1% neutral 31.3% neutral 35.6%

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  3. 11. 9.

    Smart / Dumb Money Confidence Chart from - a more aggregate measure of current market positioning similarly neutral with "Dumb Money" currently ahead 64% vs "Smart Money" 48%

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  4. 11. 9.

    Chart of NDR Crowd Poll - currently 60.6% On the low side of historical averages but not showing extreme pessimism or panic.

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  5. 10. 9.

    Bank of Canada's use of "appropriate" in past policy statements.... hmmmmmm

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  6. 10. 9.

    US REITs revel in the good times: secondary offerings are on pace for a reach a new record and according to Green Street Advisors, as a group they're trading at 11.9% premium over NAV - the highest since 2013.

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  7. 10. 9.

    PivotalPath research: interest rates explain managed futures returns more than other variables. When rates are high and decline, managed futures as a group tend to perform best. The faster rates fall the better.

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  8. 9. 9.

    TD Ameritrade's Investor Movement Index (IMX) tracking retail trader/investor activity shows that in August they were net buyers for the first time in 3 months. But their enthusiasm remains rather muted to say the least:

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  9. 9. 9.

    Historical stock market seasonality compared with YTD 2019 S&P 500 chart via Richardsom GMP

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  10. 9. 9.

    FWIW Prof. Shiller believes there's less than 50% chance of US next year

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  11. 9. 9.

    Based on historical patterns when newsletters timing the precious metal have been similarly optimistic, analysis should prevail with falling further:

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  12. 9. 9.

    Current Hulbert Gold Newsletter Index: 56.3% (higher than 84% of all daily index values since 2000)

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  13. 9. 9.

    TrimTabs: August corporate insiders selling avg ~$600M a day - last time we saw this much selling was in 2006 and then again in 2007

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  14. 6. 9.

    Historical chart of BoA ML Bull & Bear Indicator

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  15. 6. 9.

    BoA ML Bull & Bear Indicator at extreme 0.6 (dropping from previous 1.3). This aggregate metric was pushed to limit based on equity fund flows & Treasuries' rel move giving the lowest reading since March 2016. h/t

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  16. 6. 9.

    The sector most exposed to international revenue is the Information Technology sector... as it happens, this sector has been one of the primary engines of the current bull market. chart via FactSet

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  17. 6. 9.

    Corollary of the global economic slowdown is the expected Q3 double digit decline in earnings for S&P 500 companies most dependent on global markets: chart via FactSet

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  18. 6. 9.

    OECD Global Slowdown underway, mentioned several times previously here. NB: this is not equivalent to NBER US defn chart by NDR via CMG

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  19. 6. 9.

    Corporate America is using its profits to buyback shares instead of investing in capex, innovation and the platform for the next generation of profitable ventures. No one knows when but at some point "the well" will be depleted. chart via Torsten Slok at Deutsche Bank

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  20. 6. 9.

    Lipper fund flows data for week end. Sept 4th: total equity funds (combined) -$2.8B total taxable bonds (combined) +$2.98B

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