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Thomas Juneau
@
thomasjuneau
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Assistant prof, @UOttawaGSPIA. Tweets on Middle East (Iran, Saudi, Yemen) and security&intelligence. Started Tweeting June '18. Former dept of defence analyst.
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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Good question; I don't have a full answer. Some ideas:
-a personal commitment at the top (MbZ+MbS) to charge ahead, forcing bad tactical decisions
-a poor bureaucratic apparatus to analyse and develop sound policy
-plain bad judgement, common in politics: "next time it'll work" twitter.com/DEsfandiary/st…
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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Congratulations!
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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Polls in Iran should be viewed with skepticism. But funny how one says 65% of Iranians have favorable views of Gen Suleimani, and many in the diaspora dismiss it; another (dubious) one says Reza Pahlavi is the most popular politician in Iran; it's proof that RP is the savior.
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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I agree neocon rhetoric on democracy is hypocritical. But I'm not sure on what an IRGC-led Iran would be. As repressive at home, maybe more, yes. But foreign policy? it would not be friendly to the US, but there is a pragmatic, less ideological streak among many in the IRGC .
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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When the Saudi-led intervention started, the Houthis were skilled at unconventional warfare. 3 years later, they have significantly developed other skills: conventional fighting, combining conventional and unconventional, urban warfare, building defensive positions in cities.
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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The first line gives a good idea of how systematic miscalculation partly explains why Yemen is still at war: "When the UAE began the battle last month to seize Hudaydah, Emirati officials were confident of a quick victory". They also thought that in 2015. nytimes.com/2018/07/01/wor…
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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Good but optimistic by @IgnatiusPost on Trump and intelligence. He is right, what the president does is one thing, the bureaucracy another; the latter is resilient. But I fear he underestimates the damage Trump can do to int cooperation w key partners washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-i…
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Colin Freeze
@Colinfreeze
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Judge limits Canada’s international spying reach, telling @csiscanada that Parliament crafted tight laws to curb the “moral risk” of it becoming like the @CIA #cdnpoli /via @globeandmail theglobeandmail.com/canada/article… pic.twitter.com/pdeXEJryoU
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Rob Malley
@Rob_Malley
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And please read our @CrisisGroup report issued today for a somewhat different take: Another costly war can be averted. But it require Palestinian reconciliation, a resumption of PA control over Gaza, and lifting the Israeli blockade.
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no… twitter.com/jdgreenblatt45…
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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True, good point. Just imagine for a second what that would look like...
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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In addition to the important point noted by @MahsaRouhi that Gen Soleimani has a 65% favorability rating w Iranians, another key element is that he has broad factional support: many reformists, moderates, and conservatives respect him. Not for nothing some call him Supermani... twitter.com/thomasjuneau/s…
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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It's possible, and I am not saying I would rule him out. And I agree with the overall thrust of your article. In a crisis situation, as you say, dynamics change. I would just put him as one candidate along with a handful of others.
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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I agree with @MahsaRouhi's broad point: regime change in Iran risks chaos or the IRGC taking power: it has guns, money, institutional strength; no opposition has it. Not sure about Soleimani though. Possible but I view him as trying to avoid open politics foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/19/ira…
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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And a factual one.
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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Not to brag but first time I played poker in my life was at your place and I left with a 320% gain...
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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well said.
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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1. @Najmeh_Tehran, the journalist who wrote this piece, is immense. This is an issue she has been covering for years on the ground in #Tehran. You and colleagues at @FDD have cited her reporting in papers, briefings, and testimony. But let's put that aside for a second. twitter.com/mdubowitz/stat…
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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Ideologues don't do nuance... but good policy is rarely possible without it.
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Stephanie Carvin
@StephanieCarvin
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The Canadian CT researcher alpha dog, @AmarAmarasingam ATIP'ed an important @csiscanada intelligence assessment and I want to talk about a key finding in it as relates to the discussion we are currently having about migration. #cdnpoli #cdnnatsec
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Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau
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Seriously, you lost the first round pretty bad. You're digging your hole now... twitter.com/GerardAraud/st…
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