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Brent E. Sasley
@
besasley
Univ of Texas at Arlington
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Associate Prof: IR, political psychology, Israel studies. Personal tweets. New book: Politics in Israel: Governing a Complex Society global.oup.com/academic/produ…
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45,608
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2,730
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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1 u |
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There is indeed lots of debate about vulnerability, both the reality of it and the perception of it.
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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1 u |
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Many do, yes. But leaders are supposed to have a better sense of these things.
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(((Ron Kampeas)))
@kampeas
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2 u |
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The difference also is working with dictators as part of a short term realist foreign policy and embracing them as part of a longer term strategy which embraces elements of the hyper nationalism emerging in the 21st century twitter.com/besasley/statu…
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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3 u |
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Today Israel is powerful, deeply integrated into international institutions, and has many, many friends around the world.
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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3 u |
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It’s an interesting issue. Past Israeli leaders also embraced nasty leaders from other countries, though sometimes there was more debate about the morality of it. Diff is then Israel was weak and a strategic argument could be made it needed friends. twitter.com/popchassid/sta…
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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31 Noll |
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These fundamentals are what need to be accounted for and focused on, at least for now.
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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31 Noll |
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Some long term trends include: a younger generation of Jewish Israelis who lean right; a very weak Jewish left; a critical mass of voters in the center who lean right because of the conflict; center parties come and go in quick succession.
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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31 Noll |
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The parties haven't set out clear platforms yet, most of them are in the middle of being torn apart, some don't have clear leaders yet, and new ones are still being formed. >
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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31 Noll |
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I know how easy it is to rely on contemporary polls to think about and make comments on the Israeli election. But remember that there are longer, deeper trends in Israel that override any snapshot poll. Also >
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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4 u |
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The party will never overcome the disinterest and suspicion many Israeli Jews hold toward it if it can't get its house in order.
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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4 u |
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Avi Gabbay's public humiliation of Tzipi Livni is another ex of the party being unable to get it together. Labor's leaders have been poor decision-makers, blinded by arrogance, unable to provide an alternative message (from Likud), unable to control the party or its alliances.
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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4 u |
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Every time Israel's Labor party gets a new leader, commentaries--particularly in America--focus on how he or she will reinvigorate the party. But the party has steadily declined, for a number of reasons.
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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4 u |
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All 5 broke from their party to for a new one for personal reasons, weakening their mother party. The newer one then disappeared after an election or two.
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Lahav Harkov
@LahavHarkov
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7 u |
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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16 u |
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Great visual. twitter.com/mpitkowsky/sta…
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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16 u |
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Yes, that’s the theory. There’s no evidence that’s how it will work in practice.
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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17 u |
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I’m not so sure. Even assuming that kind of outcome, makes bargaining harder. And a waste of resources and energy.
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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17 u |
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Brent E. Sasley
@besasley
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17 u |
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Dennis Ross
@AmbDennisRoss
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24 u |
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It is clearly better that the US withdrawal from Syria will be over 4 months rather than one. But the strategic reality is the same: our enemies know they just have to wait, we get nothing for it, and our friends in this region know they are in their own.
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