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Ed Conway
@
EdConwaySky
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@SkyNews Economics Editor @TheTimes columnist Books: edmundconway.com/books/ Email: [email protected] Be nice 😀
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২২,৩২৬
টুইটগুলি
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৮৩২
অনুসরণ করছি
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৯৬,৭৩৮
অনুসরণকারীগণ
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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৫ মিনিট |
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Cabinet approves withdrawal agreement from EU. PM: “I believe that what I owe to this country is to take decisions in national interest. Firmly believe this decision is in best interests of our entire U.K.”
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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৬ মিনিট |
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That past tense was a bit scary
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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১ ঘন্টা |
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Fair point twitter.com/AntAntonyAnt/s…
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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১ ঘন্টা |
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I agree. The worst mistake economists ever made was to position themselves as forecasters. No-one can predict the future and we should all (economists, journalists, pols etc) be humble enough to admit that. twitter.com/AleksanderBrek…
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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১ ঘন্টা |
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Total misapprehension of what economic forecasts/projections are. They are probabilities, not binary numbers. Mervyn King used to say no economic forecast will ever be 100pc right. twitter.com/Wouldbescouse/…
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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১ ঘন্টা |
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Oh and for those people ranting about how the IMF is "EU-funded". You're right. The IMF is EU-funded. And US-funded. And UK-funded. Because it's funded by EVERY SINGLE MEMBER STATE 8/8
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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২ ঘন্টা |
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However fact remains: IMF was as explicit as anyone could be about these provisos. The forecasts it provided for the scenario that ended up unfolding were pretty bloody good. Yes it's been v wrong about other stuff in the past but in this case IT WAS NOT THAT WRONG 7/
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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২ ঘন্টা |
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That's right: the recession got most of the column inches - even though it was VERY SPECIFICALLY only one extreme path. This misreading of the report was reinforced when the then Chancellor chose to underline that warning 6/ pic.twitter.com/S7vqD9kXLd
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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২ ঘন্টা |
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Because the Fund also published an alternative "adverse" scenario - the kind of chaotic, hard Brexit scenario we're still talking about today. That forecast involved a recession and a BIG hit to GDP. Guess which of these scenarios the press fixated on...? 5/ pic.twitter.com/HFk4ynzX93
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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২ ঘন্টা |
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Note that here we're talking about the so-called "limited" scenario they mapped out in June 2016. This is clearly closest to what transpired (eg not crashing out immediately). And this is where the major misconception arose 4/ pic.twitter.com/qsFDAjIsNB
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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২ ঘন্টা |
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As economic forecasts go, these IMF Brexit short-term projections weren't half bad. Swap 2017 and 2018 and they were basically bang on. Which, given how chaotic this period has been is a pretty good performance. Better than most forecasters, as it happens 3/
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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২ ঘন্টা |
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So. Let's talk facts. In particular the IMF's pre-referendum UK forecasts. Let's compare their forecasts vs the outturn
2016
IMF forecast 1.7%. Outturn: 1.8%
2017
IMF forecast 1.4%. Outturn: 1.7%
2018
IMF forecast: 1.8%. Likely outturn: 1.3%
2/
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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২ ঘন্টা |
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Thread. Lots of people today saying: why listen to IMF on Brexit impact today when they got it so wrong last time around? This is a legitimate question. The IMF has got lots of stuff wrong before. For one thing it totally missed the 2008 crisis even as it was looming 1/
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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২ ঘন্টা |
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Pound falls sharply as reports emerge that the PM WON'T be giving a press statement on Brexit tonight. Traders getting a bit worried now. Sterling back below $1.30 vs dollar pic.twitter.com/RJDumlIceO
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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২ ঘন্টা |
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pray tell
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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৪ ঘন্টা |
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Here's the IMF's full Article IV statement on the UK economy. Frankly the non-Brexit stuff is far more interesting than the Brexit stuff, but I would say that wouldn't I imf.org/en/Publication…
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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৪ ঘন্টা |
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Intriguingly, the govt’s own projections (reproduced here by the IMF) suggest that the only Brexit path which will get UK net migration down to 100k is a hard Brexit and WTO trade terms. Not sure they’ll be shouting that from the rooftops though… pic.twitter.com/eCwMm9JkwU
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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৪ ঘন্টা |
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Which other EU countries will be hardest-hit by Brexit, according to the IMF? Short answer: Ireland by a long shot, though the GDP impact is still lower than for the UK pic.twitter.com/LJbuEsYvQU
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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৪ ঘন্টা |
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Unhelpfully, the IMF hasn’t told us where it thinks the UK economy will be if the PM’s plan is adopted. Instead it provides two forecasts: Canada-plus (-3.9%) and WTO (-7.8%). These numbers are bang in the middle of what most other forecasters are expecting pic.twitter.com/ZXCzDrI2oO
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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৪ ঘন্টা |
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Which sector of the UK economy would be hardest hit by Brexit (esp a no deal Brexit)? Step forward the financial sector and the chemicals sector. IMF chart: pic.twitter.com/Qrro11G7yB
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