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Alexander Clarkson
@
APHClarkson
Berlondon
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Lecturer for German and European Studies at King's College London. Opinions my own. RT not always endorsement.
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12,642
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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7m |
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Which means Russia will always be outbid and outflanked by rivals and partners with greater staying power and larger resources committed to Libya.
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GorseFires Collectif
@GorseFires
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10m |
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Nope. He appears to have tried that t-shirt on (borrowed) and a sweatshirt with "No Sanctions" when in Red Square, Moscow in October 2014 lintraprendente.it/2014/11/il-com… pic.twitter.com/sPCoUPKEII
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spextr
@spextr
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13m |
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FT included it in one of their articles though: ft.com/content/0d33d2…
google says the picture is pretty old, 2014 or so (mostly italian sources, so I can't estimate their trustworthiness)
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Stephanie Lamy
@WCM_JustSocial
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17m |
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There seems to be series of these, and they are from his FB profile acc to this source
bfm.ru/news/385178
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Lincoln Pigman
@LincolnPigman
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20m |
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Indeed, while Western commentators continue to present Russia as firmly in control of developments in Syria, Russian commentators have long since argued that the primary challenge for Russia is its competition with Iran for influence in Syria
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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Of course it should be analysed and broached. But such analysis has to set out how far Russian goals match its capacity to achieve them
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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If you haven't done that in this paper, you will be challenged about it by a lot of colleagues in a manner similar to what I have argued in this thread
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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If you want to start looking at the impact of Russian power in any geopolitical flashpoint, you also need to take at the extensive Russia analysis literature examining the extent and limits of that power
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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19m |
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Russia has had an impact in both Libya and Russia. But impact is not the same as being able to control outcomes
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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If Moscow cannot exert dominance in Syria, where it has large bases, heavy troop commitments, has sunk billions in funding, has a clear proxy network through the 5th Legion, how do you expect it to exert dominance in Libya where it has sunk a fraction of such resources?
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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Yes Salvini is a Putin fan, but that is surely photoshop twitter.com/carlbildt/stat…
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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It's very fashionable to focus entirely on Russia's role when it comes to geopolitical flashpoints rather than looking how it interacts with other major players in each case. A lot of analysis presenting Moscow as the player that will shape Syria from 2016 now looks dubious
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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25m |
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What exactly are we confronting here? Russia has returned to Libya to assert interests and goals in conjunction with other players including UAE and Egypt that in many ways are pretty conventional. Libya has too many players involved for any one actor to dominate outcomes
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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I'd be happy to read your paper. But I have enough other evidence in front of me of the limits of Russian power, from the Baltics, to the Balkans, the Med, Syria and yes Libya as well as to have strong doubts about how its role is often overplayed
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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27m |
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Vladimir Gel'man is always interesting to listen to on power dynamics in Russia
youtube.com/watch?v=voohE2…
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Thomas Pierret
@ThomasPierret
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34m |
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As @tcambanis explains, Sadr has a record (pre-2006) of nationalist, trans-sectarian outreach.
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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Russia causes disruption. But when the chips are down it is unable to gain enough leverage through soft power or intimidate enough through hard power to even remain dominant in the post-Soviet space, never mind the rest of Europe and the Middle East
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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The effect Russia makes is mixed. It causes disruption, yet none of its so-called allies in the EU blocked sanctions. It helped Trump yet now faces ramping up of US forces in Europe. It takes Crimea and turns Ukraine and its army of 280 000 from benign neighbour to bitter enemy
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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38m |
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In a head to head confrontation against Italy alone in the Med or Sahel, Russia would lose. Throw in France and Spain and it would lose badly
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
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If you look at researchers, from Michael Kofman, Mark Galeotti, Alexander Golts, Vladimir Gel'man, Kyrill Kobrin and many others you'd note nuanced analysis of Russia's weaknesses and its strengths with consensus that despite all the disruption it is weaker than NATO and the US
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