Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 10, 2017
How to Accurately Forecast the UK General Election in Nine Steps / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In early April everything appeared to be going smoothly for Britain, Article 50 had been triggered without any significant political opposition apart from the SNP's shrill cry for another independence referendum from north of the Scottish border. But then Theresa May made the fatal mistake of believing the tripe that calls itself Britain's polling industry, that convinced her that a snap general election would yield a landslide victory, thus strengthening her hand in the about to begin BrEXIT negotiations.
And so started Britain's decent into chaos, an election campaign that had many Tory supporters asking if Theresa May was actually trying to lose the election by her antics most notable of which was her u-turn on the manifesto dementia tax. Whilst on the other hand the mainstream media was totally blind to the way Jeremy Corbyn was galvanising the anti-austerity vote, where every pundit and forecaster without exception right up until the polls closed on June 8th expected the Conservatives to win with an INCREASED majority, on a tally ranging to as high as 414 seats, though most clustered around 365 seat for the Tories.
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Friday, July 07, 2017
UK Election Forecasting - YouGov Snatches Defeat from the Jaws of Victory! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most notable outlier forecast of the 2017 UK general election was YouGov's seats forecast announced about 2 weeks prior to the general election that was contrary to every other pollster and analysts at the time. Initially YouGov forecast that the Tories would only achieve 310 seats.
Friday, July 07, 2017
UK House Prices the Most Accurate General Election Forecast Predictor / ElectionOracle / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK house prices wealth effect once more proved to be the MOST accurate forecaster for the outcome of UK general elections i.e. April house prices data implied 342 Tory seats, which far more reliable when compared to the a range of forecast expectations primarily by pollster based analysts that extended 375 seats just prior to polling day.
Sunday, July 02, 2017
UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During Mid April everything appeared to be going smoothly for Britain, Article 50 had been triggered without any political opposition apart from Sturgeons shrill cry's for another Independence referendum from north of the Scottish border. But then Theresa May made the fatal mistake of believing the tripe that calls itself Britain's polling industry, that convinced her that a snap general election would yield a landslide victory, thus strengthening her hand in the about to begin BrEXIT negotiations.
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Are the UK Elections a Forgone Conclusion? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Submissions
Ryan writes:The General Election being confirmed on the 8th June is giving the UK’s main political parties a platform to promote their policies and present their updated manifestos to the public. Prime Minister Theresa May’s snap decision to hold the election has been viewed in varying ways with some calling it ‘opportunistic’ and others agreeing with Mrs. May’s explanation that Westminster is divided on the topic of Brexit and that “the only way to guarantee certainty and security for the years ahead is to hold this election”.
Friday, June 23, 2017
Nether Edge By Election Result: Labour Win Sheffield City Council Seat by 132 Votes / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The Labour party managed to cling on to their Nether Edge and Sharrow Sheffield city council seat on a reduced majority as the Lib Dems split the opposition vote thus depriving the Green party of their 5th city councillor as the results illustrate:
STEINKE Jim - Labour Party 2641
UNWIN Rob - Green Party 2509
ALI Shahid - Liberal Democrats 722
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
When Will Theresa May 'Dead Woman Walking' Resign? Forecast / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne the architect of the Conservative surprise general election victory of 2015 that no one saw coming as every polls based forecaster had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being that for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN just could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne, replaced by May and Hammond.
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
UK General Election Results Map 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK General Election result of 2017 surprised all just as had the election result of 2015 when every polls based analyst had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne. Now it was the turn of Theresa May to get it very badly wrong, lulled into a false sense of BrExit security as the pollsters this time forecast a certain landslide, when instead the impossible Hung Parliament materialised literally forcing Theresa May into doing a deal with Northern Irelands Protestant fundamentalists.
Friday, June 09, 2017
Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Opinion pollsters have done it again, have got another major election very, very badly wrong. What's worse is that before the start of the campaign were projecting a 20%+ lead that forecast a landside Tory election victory of well over 400 seats, that had convinced a technocratic Theresa May to call a snap general election, that is likely to cost her job as Prime Minister.
I am sure Theresa May is pondering when she should resign, likely immediately given the dismal results as per the BBC's revised forecast of their Exit poll adding 8 seats to their earlier Tory tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats estimate from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives, hence triggering Theresa May's resignation.
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Friday, June 09, 2017
Scotland Saves Tory Government, BBC Revises Exit Poll Forecast to 322, Labour 261, SNP 32 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The BBC have revised their earlier hung parliament exit poll forecast in favour of the Conservatives by adding 8 seats to their earlier tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats total from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives. Though at the rate the BBC are revising the Tory seats total higher then they may still achieve an overall majority which means, even at 322 it most definitely is not over for the Conservative government who could continue in government despite damage done to their political capital.
Friday, June 09, 2017
UK Financial Markets Calm in Election Storm, is the BBC Exit Poll Wrong? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implied a shock hung parliament election result that was expected to trigger market panic as happened following the EU Referendum.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
Nick Clegg Forecast to Win Sheffield Hallam - 75% Probability / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Whilst the BBC's shock hung parliament exit poll currently forecasts that Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat is too close to call meaning that Labour could take it. This is backed up by BBC reporting of worried voices out of Lib Dems at the count. However according to the betting markets as illustrated by Betfair have following the close of polls marginally shifted in Nick Clegg's favour currently pricing Nick Clegg on 1.14 against Labour on 1.44 which converts into an implied probability of about 70% to 75% for Nick Clegg winning Sheffield Hallam (when taking into account Labour trading at 1.44).
Thursday, June 08, 2017
BBC Exit Poll Forecasts Shock Hung Parliament - Conservative 314, Labour 266, SNP 34 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implies a shock hung parliament election result! - MARKETS PANIC!
Thursday, June 08, 2017
UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place for the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 6 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
FTSE Stocks, Bonds and Sterling Calm Ahead of UK Election Result Storm? / ElectionOracle / Financial Markets 2017
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK stocks, bonds and sterling were calm ahead of the result of the UK general election, where effectively the financial markets are discounting a Conservative election victory on an INCREASED majority in Theresa May's BrExit election, where the higher the number of seats gained by the Tories then the more positive the market response is likely to be. However should the markets also get it wrong this time as they had for the EU Referendum then all hell could once more break lose. But for the time being the markets are calm.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
General Election Latest Opinion Polls and Betting Market Forecasts / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the polls for decades, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since Theresa May called the BrExit election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates:
Thursday, June 08, 2017
YouGov Final Election Bullshit Forecast - Tories Increased Majority But on 302 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
YouGov are turning themselves into first class headline grabbing bullshit artists. Having gained mainstream media attention with their first of a series of headline grabbing seat forecasts just over a week ago that stated they were forecasting that the Conservatives would actually LOSE seats by falling to 310 with Labour rising to 247 i.e. a hung parliament. And with their latest Conservative seats forecast of 302, with Labour rising to 269. Now barely hours before the polls open YouGov are running with an headline that implies the EXACT OPPOSITE RESULT! "Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority". So could someone explain to me how is one expected to capitalise / utilise / interpret YouGov's two alternative outcome forecasts?
Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Sheffiled City Council / Amey Trees Rampage Costs Labour Sheffield Hallam Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: N_Walayat
The Labour party smells blood in Sheffield Hallam having come within just 4% of winning the former Liberal Democrat Leader, Nick Clegg's seat in2015. And now with little signs of Liberal Democrat recovery in the polls, Labour are going all out to take the Sheffield Hallam seat in tomorrows vote.
Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Spread Betting Market Arbitrage and BetFair Trading UK General Election 2017 / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So Theresa May's snap general election campaign is nearly over and where my forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win with 358 seats on a majority of 66. With Labour losing 20 seats falling to 212. So following my my forecast conclusion my search has been on to identify spread and Betfair exchange betting market opportunities for these last few days and then hours ahead of the election result as I cover in this video analysis.
Wednesday, June 07, 2017
YouGov Final Election 2017 Seats Forecast - Conservative 302, Labour 269, Lib 12, SNP 44 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today YouGov published their final seats per party forecast for election 2017, one of the Conservatives holding onto only 302 of their 331 seats, Labour surging to 269 and the SNP falling to 44 with only a flicker of life in the Lib Dems rising to just 12. For much of the election campaign YouGov followed the pollster herd by forecasting a Conservative landslide but then late May apparently decided F-this and went for broke by increasingly pumping out crazy poll expectations at the extreme opposite to that which they had been forecasting barely a few weeks earlier.