By Leith van Onselen Australia’s senior public servants are taking the piss. Over recent years we have witnessed the obscene blow-out in their salaries, as exemplified by the RBA governor’s pay rising above $1 million. We have also seen some top bureaucrats’ pay soar by 70% since the global financial crisis, with the head of
ANZ job ads are out and fell -0.3% on the month and are now up just 3.7% over the year: Rolling annual numbers have faded to 8.5% growth, moreover, are now falling fast given 2016 has yielded growth of just 1.9%. Job ads are clearly weakening in what was already only a luke warm labour market. There
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of August. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.8% to 20,788. The overall fall was broad-based with the volatile unit and apartment segment falling by 3.6% and the more
From Moody’s: Moody’s Investors Service says that delinquencies for Australian auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS) and for Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) have increased over the six months to July 2016 as well as year-on-year. Specifically, 30+ day delinquencies for Australian auto loan ABS transactions rose to 1.69% in July 2016 from 1.35% in January 2016 and 1.15% in July
From the AFR: Westpac is toughening lending conditions on investment property loans, the third change to its mortgage products in three months because of growing regulatory pressure to clamp-down on interest-only products. …Westpac is reducing the maximum allowable interest-only term for investment property loans to 10 years. The interest-only term could previously be extended to 15
The CoreLogic weekly leading mortgage index is doing a good impression of a swan dive which is very unseasonal: Listings are doing OK now: Falling volumes are not bullish. Full report.
By Leith van Onselen The Greens have called on Labor to oppose tax cuts to those earning in excess of $80,000, arguing that they are poorly targeted ‘trickle-down economics’. From The Guardian: Greens Treasury spokesman, Peter Whish-Wilson, has written to Labor’s shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, calling for reconsideration of the tax cuts in shadow cabinet
From Deutsche: As a response to a both (i) a stronger oil-price environment and just as importantly (ii) a more reliably stronger oil-price environment, we believe a steeper increase is likely in US onshore rig activity in 2017 than we previously assumed. While our previous assumption (+5 rigs per week) have proven too aggressive relative
From UBS: There are mixed signs on the housing market. Overall, RBA Governor Lowe “is somewhat more comfortable”, with the RBA’s September board meeting minutes saying that the established housing market “generally eased over 2016 [and] growth in housing prices had declined”…and “Other indicators…also generally pointed to weaker conditions than a year earlier” as “turnover
By Leith van Onselen Following in the wake of recent warnings from Westpac and the ANZ Bank, New Zealand’s Chief Executive and Secretary of the Treasury, Gabriel Makhlouf, has highlighted the risks of New Zealand’s record mortgage debt to the financial system. From Interest.co.nz: Speaking to interest.co.nz in a Double Shot Interview, Gabriel Makhlouf said:
From Macquarie: The RBA board will meet on Tuesday and the market outlook for policy is shifting. Markets are starting to believe the RBA is done cutting. However, we doubt incoming Governor Philip Lowe is arriving at a policy transition point. Is the RBA sitting pretty? The economic data received since the last
From the always excellent Brian Johnson: The Basel 3 global bank regulatory reforms seem to be slipping back slightly. We expect APRA to finalise its regulatory framework for the Australian banks in 1QCY17 as opposed to the previously flagged December 2016 deadline. APRA has released its draft proposed Net Stable Funding Ratio proposal, to apply
By Chris Becker The US ISM manufacturing print last night highlighted the Federal Reserve’s resolve in normalising rates, coming in strong, confirming interest rate rise bets and pushed the USD up and everything else down. Even more resolve from the UK where March 2017 has been set as the date for official Brexit, invoking Article
The US dollar was firm: Other majors soft: Commodity currencies strong: Gold soft: Oil strong: Base metals soft: Big miners strong: US and EM high yield weak: US bonds weak: And stocks weak: A strange mix. The oil rally continued but without credit or dirt support yet commodity currencies and miners rallied anyway. Stocks weakness
From Highrise Harry today: Up to 30 contracts were rescinded in Meriton’s mostly Sydney towers, with the 10 per cent deposits forfeited, Australia’s richest man told The Australian. “It was sudden. It has never happened before,” Mr Triguboff said. However, ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday — the first week of October and a traditionally
By Leith van Onselen In the decade to June 2015, Melbourne’s population ballooned by 832,000 or 23%, with an average of 83,200 people flooding into the city each and every year, driven mostly via immigration (see next chart). Moreover, the latest population data for Victoria registered a whopping 114,865 new residents added to the population
By Leith van Onselen Infrastructure Victoria has released its draft 30-year Infrastructure Strategy, which has made 134 recommendations worth around $100 billion aimed at combating congestion, urban sprawl, and boosting housing affordability. The plan includes all of the usual stuff, including: Some new infrastructure projects, such as a $10 billion “Missing Link” road in the
Man, WTF, from Banking Day: The tenor of the political response in Australia to public angst over the admitted and alleged instances of misconduct in the banking industry has nosedived once more. The Financial Review this morning has the “drop” from treasurer Scott Morrison. The federal government will introduce criminal penalties and new regulations to
By Leith van Onselen I have complained incessantly that Australia’s universities have turned into ‘degree factories’, whereby they teach as many students as possible to accumulate Commonwealth government funding through HELP/HECS debts. At the same time, quality of teaching, and students’ ability to secure subsequent employment, remain distant priorities. This view is evidenced by the
Murdoch’s Budget iron ore lie goes on, from Elizabeth Redman: The iron ore price has slipped further and is a hair above the May Budget’s estimate of $US55 a tonne, as the commodity continues to cool from levels that were widely viewed as unsustainable. Iron ore lost 0.2 per cent to $US55.10 overnight, according to
The Brent oil price continues its OPEC squeeze up again to $50.81 while Henry Hub was flat at $2.91: I maintain that the Brent rally is shorts puking positions not fundamentals, from John Kemp: It could run another week or so. News is not bullish. Russia has hosed a production cut and its production is on
It’s on like Donkey Kong now, from Bloomberg: Sichuan’s provincial capital Chengdu and Henan’s provincial capital Zhengzhou on Sunday banned people from buying a third property in some areas. Wuxi, a southern manufacturing base close to Shanghai, raised down-payment requirements for second homes to a minimum of 40 percent of the property’s value from 30
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: JPMorgan Joins Yellen and Summers In Hinting The Fed May Buy Stocks Next – Zero Hedge Goldman Sachs: We’re in the ’second wave’ of fintech – Business Insider Alan Greenspan Misjudged the Risks in the Mid-2000s; Alan Greenspan Was Not a Coward – Brad DeLong Democracy. Capitalism. Socialism. Choose Any Three of
by Chris Becker The Friday night bullishness has swallowed the avoidable weekend gap (markets should trade 24/7 people!) with a positive mood across Asia today, with the one-two punch of Deutsche Bank and Brexit troubles only landing the second blow as Pound Sterling sank. First to stocks, with mainland Chinese bourses closed, the Hong
From the Melbourne Institute comes September monthly inflation at 0.4% month on month and 1.3% year on year with the trimmed mean at 0.2% and 0.8%: In short, weak as!
