François Heisbourg

@FHeisbourg

Senior advisor for Europe, IISS, conseiller spécial/special adviser FRS

Joined February 2012
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  1. 4 hours ago

    Yes. But by then the train had left the station in terms of the European Defence Fund (& similar measures). The EDF (if it survives the budget process for the 2021-2027 septennial) will arguably be the biggest contribution yet made by the EU as such in the defence field

    Replying to @FHeisbourg @IISS_org
    Actually the UK was making proposals for partnership on external security from September 2017.
    2 likes
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  2. 7 hours ago

    Wondering what will make of this hypothesis?

    Replying to @inbarspace @FHeisbourg
    Unless it was never a satellite launch but an ICBM thinly (understatement) disguised as a space project. Failed upper stage written into script? Wouldn't be first time
    1 reply 2 retweets 1 like
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  3. Retweeted
    9 hours ago

    Good Morning from Germany which could already entered recession. Catastrophic fall in industrial production in Nov— after neg GDP growth in Q3—has raised fears that Germany is in tech recession. Today Fed Stat Office will publish 1st estimates. Would be first recession since 2012

    12 replies 257 retweets 244 likes
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  4. 7 hours ago

    As I wrote recently in 's Survival, final status of UK-EU relationship on the EU Defence Fund and the like should be revisited during the transition period. The issue was botched hitherto (UK focussed late in the day & EU was narrow-minded). But if no WA=no transition

    I don't crit the EU much on substance. But on security I think it should be more open to bespoke arrangements that enable the UK to plug in more closely than other 3rd countries - assuming, of course, UK accepts ECJ etc. Because UK not any old 3rd country on security.
    2 replies 3 retweets 6 likes
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  5. Retweeted
    9 hours ago

    Admitting a satellite failed launch by Iran is a sign of maturity in the Islamic Republic space program. In the past failed launches where either not announced or in the case of the 2017 Simorgh failed launch the launche was shwon but the FAILURE was not announced.

    3 replies 23 retweets 38 likes
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  6. 8 hours ago

    Of Crimean war fame. Maybe France and Britain should have stayed and made Balaklava the Hong Kong of the Black Sea? That would sure beat its current situation. Just joking...

    One of my favorite Ukrainian cities, Balaklava, under fresh snow.
    2 likes
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  7. 8 hours ago

    We'll see how the second launch goes - ICT Minister: Iran's Payam satellite not placed into orbit

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  8. Retweeted
    Jan 13

    Where they stand ahead of the vote Telegraph: no deal The Sun: no deal Spectator: no deal Daily Mail: May’s deal Mail on Sunday: May’s deal Times: May’s deal FT: May’s deal Express: May’s deal Guido: May’s deal Mirror: election Guardian: second ref Indy: second ref

    650 replies 3,486 retweets 5,698 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    Jan 14

    The growth in US shale oil production has not led to a decline in the global oil market’s dependence on the Middle East. Pierre Noel examines the trend:

    2 replies 7 retweets 2 likes
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  10. Retweeted
    Jan 14

    It was never going to be more than this. So what has the delay in voting since December achieved?

    New EU letter says NI backstop would only be in place 'as long as necessary'. And suggests its Council [Dec summit] conclusions are a legal document. Neither will be enough for DUP and many Brexiteers.
    4 replies 15 retweets 59 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    Jan 13

    Sounds like a terrible idea: 's Central Electoral Commission gave approval for Azov's "National Militia" to act as observers during the presidential election

    14 replies 64 retweets 73 likes
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  12. Jan 13

    Chinese challenge is beginning to be taken on board in Europe. The next step for Europe is realising what that means in strategic terms, ie that in the future US relations with Europe will be shaped by US perceptions of whether Europe is helping or hindering US vis à vis China

    Strong messages from Peter Hultqvist on the Russian and Chinese challenges to a civilized int'l order at SWE defence retreat, less strong on the need for additional defence resources.
    12 retweets 9 likes
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  13. Jan 13

    And, truth be said, who can fully trust Bolton?

    Then again, who does Trump fully trust?
    1 reply 4 retweets 10 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    Jan 13

    “A former Philippine Navy chief has sounded the alarm over the security and strategic implications on the prospect of a Chinese takeover of a commercial shipyard in Subic”

    19 retweets 24 likes
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  15. Jan 13

    Trump's massive and probably counterproductive misreading of what drives Turkish public opinion.

    President Donald Trump warned Turkey on Sunday of economic devastation if it attacks Kurdish forces in the wake of the US troop pullout from Syria, while also urging the Kurds not to "provoke" Ankara
    Show this thread
    2 retweets 1 like
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  16. Jan 13

    Kalin is truly Turkey's Bolton. I leave interpretation to the reader

    When everything is so messy that the Turkish national security advisor is tweeting at the American president who just threatened to “devastate” a NATO ally.
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  17. Jan 13

    Pas toujours d'accord avec sur la crise que traverse notre pays, mais je crains que cette observation soit tout à fait exacte, nonobstant la lettre constructive du Président Macron

    Le « grand débat » prouve, par son existence même, la déliquescence de nos institutions politiques.
    2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
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  18. Retweeted
    Jan 13

    This is rubbish. If you do this you’ll end up with no deal. Fine if that’s what you want but don’t think you’ll get anything better for you out of the EU.

    We needn’t talk of second referendums, Norway deals, delays or revoking Article 50. The EU always makes agreements at the 11th hour - so let’s kill this bill and set Britain free.
    2 replies 14 retweets 33 likes
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  19. Jan 13

    That was exactly the misreading of many of the UK negotiators two years ago. They got it wrong. explains why in the tweet he sent as part of this conversation.

    Germany writes the EU checks, German automakers rule that economy, it’s not hard to connect those dots Fraçois
    1 retweet 3 likes
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  20. Jan 13

    These stats were well known in UK in 2016. But Brexiteers were wrong to draw the conclusion that this would determine German and EU policy. A bit like UK remainers assuming that the similar weight of the UK financial industry would make the people vote for the EU in 2016

    Replying to @danielkitta @FHeisbourg
    When you make up 20%+ of the National gdp and employs a significant portion of the population .... satire it is not
    2 likes
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