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@
kkondik
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Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics. Author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President (Ohio U Press)
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Mike Gousha
@MikeGousha
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21 хв |
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This morning on #UpFront: the controversy over what GOP lawmakers may do before @Tony4WI takes office. I'll talk with @GordonHintz and @SenDarling. Plus, @kkondik on WI's role in the 2020 presidential election. Watch us at 9 on @WISN12News , 9:30 on @WKOW & @WAOW, and 10 on @WBAY
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Simone Pathe
@sfpathe
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12 год |
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With the defeat of Young Kim in #CA39, looks like #WV03's @CarolMillerWV is now officially the only new GOP woman coming to the House. rollcall.com/news/politics/…
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Mike Gousha
@MikeGousha
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22 год |
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Sunday morning on #UpFront: the controversy over what GOP lawmakers may do before @Tony4WI takes office. I'll talk with @GordonHintz and @SenDarling. Plus, @kkondik on WI's role in the 2020 presidential election.
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Amy Gardner
@AmyEGardner
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16 лист. |
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This stunning nugget just in from the Florida Secretary of State's office: 62,257 undervotes in the Senate race. That's the number of voters who skipped that race on their ballots. Ballot design? Meh candidates? Weird and difference-making.
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
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16 лист. |
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Gotta wonder what role the SALT cap played here, with Republican losses being especially heavy in NY, NJ and CA. twitter.com/redrusty75/sta…
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
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16 лист. |
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Turnout update: Now at estimated 116.2 million votes cast in the 2018 general election or a turnout rate of 49.3%. This is the highest midterm turnout rate since 1914's 50.4% and the first midterm election to top 100 million votes electproject.org/2018g
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Mike Gousha
@MikeGousha
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16 лист. |
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Sunday morning on #UpFront: will GOP lawmakers change the date of Wisconsin's presidential primary? I'll talk with @GordonHintz and @SenDarling. Plus, the latest on the @KCCorp incentive deal, and @kkondik on WI's role in the 2020 presidential race.
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
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16 лист. |
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this is... not a good argument, whatever one thinks of Pelosi. twitter.com/mkraju/status/…
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
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16 лист. |
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The poor Broward ballot design appears to have affected both parties. It may have actually disadvantaged Scott because Nelson got 69% of the Broward vote, but the comparison of Gov and Senate candidate votes breaks evenly
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Sean T at RCP
@SeanTrende
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16 лист. |
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My two cents on the “was it a wave” debate. twitter.com/kkondik/status…
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
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16 лист. |
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Van Drew’s (D) victory over a total zero opponent wasn’t that great in NJ-2, where LoBiondo (R) is retiring twitter.com/RepLoBiondo/st…
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
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16 лист. |
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probably not the difference between winning and losing the House, but possibly the difference between, say, 30 seats and whatever the final number is (close to 40, anyway).
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Steve Schale
@steveschale
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16 лист. |
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I don't think it's a permanent shift, but I do think DUVAL has moved from a red county in statewide races, to one that's light red to competitive. pic.twitter.com/7S0hbQJbtI
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| Kyle Kondik ретвітнув(ла) | ||
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Seth D. Michaels 🍁🍂
@sethdmichaels
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16 лист. |
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Duval, too
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
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16 лист. |
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Was it a Wave? -- good piece from @SeanTrende
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/…
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
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16 лист. |
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although still far to the right of the state (Tarrant and Maricopa voted very close to statewide average)
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
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16 лист. |
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a favorite of mine too
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
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16 лист. |
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Of note - two of only a handful of the nation's most populous counties that is open to voting R for president, Tarrant (Ft. Worth) and Maricopa (Phoenix), voted Democratic for Senate this year.
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
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16 лист. |
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I'd consider RealClearPolitics to be the "straight" polling average, which had McSally +1. But yes the 538 adjustments made the polls almost exactly right
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
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16 лист. |
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Sinema's margin in Arizona is up to 2 full percentage points. This is one race where, pre-election, some of my contacts on both sides of the aisle seemed in alignment on where the race was, and they nailed it.
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