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Title:
Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000
Authors:
Durack, Paul J.; Wijffels, Susan E.; Matear, Richard J.
Affiliation:
AA(Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, CSIRO, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Mail Code L-103, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USA), AB(Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Marine and Atmospheric Research, General Post Office (GPO) Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.; Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, CSIRO, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia), AC(Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Marine and Atmospheric Research, General Post Office (GPO) Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.; Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, CSIRO, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia)
Publication:
Science, Volume 336, Issue 6080, pp. 455- (2012). (Sci Homepage)
Publication Date:
04/2012
Category:
ATMOS
Origin:
SCIENCE
Abstract Copyright:
(c) 2012: Science
DOI:
10.1126/science.1212222
Bibliographic Code:
2012Sci...336..455D

Abstract

Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.
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