Communities
People & Pages
Collections
Post has attachment
Public
.Cristiano Ronaldo's GF Georgina engaged? Was flaunting huge diamond ring at World Cup
#CR7 #gorgeous #georgia #georgina #georginarodriguez #ronaldo #cristiano #cristianojr #cristianojr #cristianoronaldo #cristianoronaldo7 #portugal #porto #portugal🇵🇹 #fifa #fifa18 #fifaworldcup #worldcup #worldcup2018 #thebest #football #legend #goat
#WeAreRonaldo
#CR7 #gorgeous #georgia #georgina #georginarodriguez #ronaldo #cristiano #cristianojr #cristianojr #cristianoronaldo #cristianoronaldo7 #portugal #porto #portugal🇵🇹 #fifa #fifa18 #fifaworldcup #worldcup #worldcup2018 #thebest #football #legend #goat
#WeAreRonaldo
Add a comment...
Post has attachment
Apparently, #betting on wrong #WorldCup lines can make you money as the odds move before kickoff, even when betting with a gaming company that operates on 5% margin. For the record though, I strongly recommend AGAINST any #cashout option. Here's an old post of mine about that: http://www.betstories.com/2014/08/12/cash-out/
I placed these bets 3 days before the kickoff time. According to my money management plan that's based on the fractional Kelly criterion, the bet sizing should have been €250 bigger, but I've capped my max bet size at 5% of my bankroll. You may read my previous post on that topic.
#ft
I placed these bets 3 days before the kickoff time. According to my money management plan that's based on the fractional Kelly criterion, the bet sizing should have been €250 bigger, but I've capped my max bet size at 5% of my bankroll. You may read my previous post on that topic.
#ft
Add a comment...
Post has attachment
Group F: Germany 2-1 Sweden (23 June) - FIFA World Cup
note.taable.com
Add a comment...
Post has attachment
22 Interesting Facts About Cricket World Cup - Cricket History
crickethistory.info
Add a comment...
Post has attachment
Post has attachment
#WorldCup #GERSWE I understand people are looking for tips. These are my own bets for today. They are not tips. They are not predictions. They are not recommended if you can no longer find these selections at these odds. They're like a heads-or-tails game where I found better than even odds. And I am not even sure if the coin is perfectly balanced (50-50%).
I bet Sweden to beat Germany last night at 8.25. The same bet at the time of writing this pays 6.75. Usually it means that punters bet on Sweden more than bookmakers anticipated. There's a reason odds are moving up or down. Google "market efficiency".
Sure, it's a long-shot. I suppose you wouldn't bet on Sweden at 4.00. Or 6.00. How about 10? 15? How about at 100? Where's the limit? Do you believe it'd be nice if you could bet now at 8.25? :)
(What can I say, apparently my skill is finding prices that go up or down!)
That's why you need to estimate a win.probability before you check the odds. I do that based on a free model I found online (check previous posts). I do not calculate anything. It's like someone else calculated for me that the coin toss probabilities are 50-50%. Or 45-55 for a crooked coin. Or whatever. I don't know if they are correct yet. I simply trust their method for the time being because I did something similar 15 years ago. And they discuss how the model works.
I'm not selling tips. I don't sell anything. I just want more people to understand how this betting game works. Because then they will quit finding excuses for losing money.
And finally, my profit is 5 times more than expected. That's called positive variance. I could have been 5 times worse (losing money). For example, if Sweden wins today I will make a thousand Euros but in fact my expected return of this bet is €65. It's a bit less than yesterday's Switzerland win that had an expected return of €77.
And that's taking for granted that the model's calculations are accurate on average. A slight miscalculation or a minor shift in model's efficiency (ie. an estimate of 50% is 47% in reality - but no one can really know that) can have a big impact on the winrate.
This is a test that seems to be working well in the first... 7 bets! Such a tiny sample!
Oh, and if you find Germany's odds at 3.00, let me know. I'd be happy to bet on that too! (see how odds affect the 'tips'?)
I bet Sweden to beat Germany last night at 8.25. The same bet at the time of writing this pays 6.75. Usually it means that punters bet on Sweden more than bookmakers anticipated. There's a reason odds are moving up or down. Google "market efficiency".
Sure, it's a long-shot. I suppose you wouldn't bet on Sweden at 4.00. Or 6.00. How about 10? 15? How about at 100? Where's the limit? Do you believe it'd be nice if you could bet now at 8.25? :)
(What can I say, apparently my skill is finding prices that go up or down!)
That's why you need to estimate a win.probability before you check the odds. I do that based on a free model I found online (check previous posts). I do not calculate anything. It's like someone else calculated for me that the coin toss probabilities are 50-50%. Or 45-55 for a crooked coin. Or whatever. I don't know if they are correct yet. I simply trust their method for the time being because I did something similar 15 years ago. And they discuss how the model works.
I'm not selling tips. I don't sell anything. I just want more people to understand how this betting game works. Because then they will quit finding excuses for losing money.
And finally, my profit is 5 times more than expected. That's called positive variance. I could have been 5 times worse (losing money). For example, if Sweden wins today I will make a thousand Euros but in fact my expected return of this bet is €65. It's a bit less than yesterday's Switzerland win that had an expected return of €77.
And that's taking for granted that the model's calculations are accurate on average. A slight miscalculation or a minor shift in model's efficiency (ie. an estimate of 50% is 47% in reality - but no one can really know that) can have a big impact on the winrate.
This is a test that seems to be working well in the first... 7 bets! Such a tiny sample!
Oh, and if you find Germany's odds at 3.00, let me know. I'd be happy to bet on that too! (see how odds affect the 'tips'?)
Add a comment...
Post has attachment
Wait while more posts are being loaded