By External Source
Dec 28 2024 (IPS-Partners)

 
The world’s troubles deepened in 2024. Civilians bore the brunt of war.

Violence in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Haiti, and more displaced over 100 million people worldwide.

Over 70% of those killed in Gaza were women and children, according to the UN Human Rights Office.

With critical infrastructure in ruins, an estimated 1 million children are now displaced, according to UNICEF.

In Sudan, 10 million people were displaced by conflict in 2024.

2024 became the hottest year on record, with global temperatures 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.

Over 2 billion people experienced extreme heatwaves this year.

At COP29, leaders failed to reach a breakthrough on climate finance.

Developing nations are still waiting for the $100 billion pledged annually since 2009.

Floods in the Sahel displaced 2 million people.

Southern Africa’s drought put over 20 million at risk of food insecurity.

Efforts to protect biodiversity also fell short.

1 million species remain at risk of extinction, warns the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).

But hope emerged from renewable energy.

Solar and wind capacity increased by 25% globally, pushing emissions toward a long-awaited peak.

The world now has 281 million international migrants, with remittances exceeding $800 billion annually, boosting economies in low-income nations.

Gender violence remains a global crisis.

Nearly 1 in 3 women worldwide experience abuse, according to UN Women.

Women human rights defenders were targeted and silenced.

In 2024, over 30 journalists were killed covering conflict zones.

Gaza saw the highest number of journalist deaths in three decades.

Haiti’s crisis worsened, with over 700,000 people displaced by gang violence.

Small farms provided 80% of food consumed in Africa, highlighting their critical role in food security.

New breakthroughs in malaria vaccines are expected to save over 10 million lives by 2050.

In Bangladesh, mass protests ousted corrupt leaders.

Dr. Muhammad Yunus hailed the movement as a triumph of “ordinary people’s power.”

The world may feel like a runaway train heading for disaster, but collective action can slow it down.

2024 highlighted our vulnerabilities, but it also reminded us of humanity’s capacity for resilience.

When people unite, they can spark real, transformative change.

Organizations, activists, and individuals are working tirelessly for a better tomorrow.

Every step forward, no matter how small, brings us closer to hope.

2024 tested us all, but it also showed us that change is possible.

2025 is a blank canvas.

Together, let’s paint a brighter future

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12 November 2024, Baku, Azerbaijan. FAO Director-General QU Dongyu and Ismahane Elouafi, EMD of CGIAR attend the inauguration of the Food and Agriculture Pavilion FAO/CGIAR during COP29. Credit: FAO/Alessandra Benedetti

By Aditi Mukherji and Cargele Masso
NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec 24 2024 (IPS)

This year has been a landmark one for climate and environment policy. Starting with the UN’s COP16 biodiversity talks in October, followed by the COP29 climate talks in November, and closing with the desertification COP16 in December, few years have offered such critical moments back-to-back.

This created an unprecedented opportunity to bolster food systems against climate change, improve their environmental impacts, and concretize support for smallholder farmers – some of the people most affected by climate change, land degradation, and biodiversity loss.

Across the summits, negotiators broadly agreed on the need to integrate food systems into the UN’s three environmental frameworks, a step in the right direction given the interconnectedness of food and agriculture, and the environment at large. However, to build on the flagship UAE Declaration on food systems at the COP28 climate talks in 2023, the global community must urgently ramp up financing and action to make good on the ambitious goals set.

In other words, the next 12 months to the COP30 climate talks in Brazil are critical for “walking the talk” of the COPs this year. To make the most of the opportunity for food systems to support environmental and climate goals, several steps are needed.

The first is increased investment into low-emissions technologies and innovations for food systems. This includes both investment into new and emerging solutions as well as financing for scaling up existing technologies.

Just as increased investment and support in recent decades led to a solar energy boom, causing the price of solar panels to fall sharply and became cheaper than fossil fuels, food systems need similar long-term and sustained investments. Channelling international finance towards agricultural research and development would accelerate and scale affordable, impactful, and clean technologies that curb emissions and enhance biodiversity while also supporting adaptation and rural livelihoods.

Green ammonia, for instance, is a promising new sector for food and agriculture. It reduces emissions from fertiliser production by utilising renewable energy sources, such as wind or solar power, to fuel the traditional Haber–Bosch process. But at present, green ammonia is more expensive than its fossil fuel-based alternative, and requires more research to achieve cost-effective production in the years to come.

Second, finance is urgently needed to cover the costs and potential short-term losses as farmers adopt low-emission, regenerative agricultural practices. The transition to sustainable agriculture is not without costs, and supporting countries and communities as they make this shift is essential to long-term implementation. For example, payment for ecosystem services, including carbon credits, is worth exploring and implementing.

As it stands, food systems receive only around 0.8 per cent of climate finance, totalling $28.5 billion average yearly. This is far from the estimated $212 billion needed annually to reduce food systems’ environmental footprint, which currently account for one third of all global greenhouse gas emissions. Increased finance in food systems represents a huge opportunity to bring the world back on track to reach climate targets.

The need for finance goes beyond just climate goals. There is also a need for increased finance for biodiversity to fully implement the Global Biodiversity Framework and land degradation neutrality. At the same time, these seemingly competing finance needs can be coordinated to make best use of resources to make progress across the board. Reducing and phasing out harmful subsidies and mobilizing financial resources to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem gains, both targets under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, are paramount to deliver on all three Rio Conventions.

Finally, harmonizing policy can help address this by optimizing the use of resources like finance. Improving policy coherence across climate adaptation and mitigation can help maximize impacts and reduce trade-offs.

For instance, there are currently different country-level policy frameworks to reduce emissions and protect biodiversity: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs). While both acknowledge the interconnectedness between climate and biodiversity, their implementation has been fragmented and siloed. This means we are missing out on the “double-wins”, more often duplicating efforts and even undermining sustainability goals.

Integrating the three Rio Conventions on biodiversity, desertification, and climate is fundamental. Though they are separate frameworks, they cannot operate in siloes, especially regarding food systems, because they are deeply interconnected.

This includes improved coordination to minimize competition for resources like finance and transaction costs, while enhancing systems thinking.

Food systems offer an opportunity for just and fair climate action, simultaneously vulnerable and powerful when it comes to the impacts of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation. Given that next year will be a single-COP year, attention must return to the opportunities for food systems to reduce emissions and enhance biodiversity and ecosystem gains, at the same time as supporting a just transition to ensure we sustain not only the planet, but all humanity too.

Aditi Mukherji, CGIAR’s Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Action Platform and IPCC author

Cargele Masso, Director of the CGIAR Impact Platform on Environmental Health and Biodiversity

IPS UN Bureau

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It’s been a tumultuous year, and a tough one for struggles for human rights. Civil society’s work to seek social justice and hold the powerful to account has been tested at every turn. Civil society has kept holding the line, resisting power grabs and regressive legislation, calling out injustice and claiming some victories, often at great cost. And things aren’t about to get any easier, as key challenges identified in 2024 are likely to intensify in 2025.

Andrew Firmin

As recent events in Lebanon and Syria have shown, changing dynamics, including shifting calculations made by countries such as Iran, Israel, Russia, Turkey and the USA, mean that frozen conflicts could reignite and new ones could erupt. As in Syria, these shifts could create sudden moments of opportunity; the international community and civil society must respond quickly when these come.

Inés M. Pousadela

3. 2025 is the year that states are required to develop new plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change under the Paris Agreement. The process will culminate in the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, likely the world’s last chance to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels. This will only happen if states stand up to fossil fuel companies and look beyond narrow short-term interests. Failing that, more of the debate may come to focus on adaptation. The unresolved question of who will pay for climate transition will remain central. Meanwhile, extreme weather events such as heatwaves and floods can be expected to continue to devastate communities, impose high economic costs, drive migration and exacerbate conflicts.

4. Globally, economic dysfunction is likely to increase, with more people struggling to afford basic necessities, increasingly including housing, as prices continue to rise, with climate change and conflict among the causes. The gap between the struggling many and the ultra-wealthy few will become more visible, and anger at rising prices or taxes will drive people – particularly young people deprived of opportunities – onto the streets. State repression will often follow. Frustration with the status quo means people will keep looking for political alternatives, a situation right-wing populists and nationalists will keep exploiting. But demands for labour rights, particularly among younger workers, will also likely increase, along with pressure for policies such as wealth taxes, a universal basic income and a shorter working week.

5. A year when the largest number of people ever went to the polls has ended – but there are still plenty of elections to come. Where elections are free and fair, voters are likely to keep rejecting incumbents, particularly due to economic hardship. Right-wing populists and nationalists are likely to benefit the most, but the tide will eventually turn: once they’ve been around long enough to be perceived as part of the political establishment, they too will see their positions threatened, and they can be expected to respond with authoritarianism, repression and the scapegoating of excluded groups. More politically manipulated misogyny, homophobia, transphobia and anti-migrant rhetoric can be expected as a result.

6. Even if developments in generative AI slow as the current model reaches the limits of the human-generated material it feeds on, international regulation and data protection will likely continue to lag behind. The use of AI-enabled surveillance, such as facial recognition, against activists is likely to increase and become more normalised. The challenge of disinformation is likely to intensify, particularly around conflicts and elections.

Several tech leaders have actively taken the side of right-wing populists and authoritarians, putting their platforms and wealth at the service of their political ambitions. Emerging alternative social media platforms offer some promise but are likely to face similar problems as they grow.

7. Climate change, conflict, economic strife, repression of LGBTQI+ identities and civil and political repression will continue to drive displacement and migration. Most migrants will remain in difficult and underfunded conditions in global south countries. In the global north, right-wing shifts are expected to drive more restrictive and repressive policies, including the deportation of migrants to countries where they may be at risk. Attacks on civil society working to defend their rights, including by assisting at sea and land borders, are also likely to intensify.

8. The backlash against women’s and LGBTQI+ rights will continue. The US right wing will continue to fund anti-rights movements in the global south, notably in Commonwealth African countries, while European conservative groups will continue to export their anti-rights campaigns, as some Spanish organisations have long done throughout Latin America. Disinformation efforts from multiple sources, including Russian state media, will continue to influence public opinion. This will leave civil society largely on the defensive, focused on consolidating gains and preventing setbacks.

9. As a result of these trends, the ability of civil society organisations and activists to operate freely will remain under pressure in the majority of countries. Just when its work is most needed, civil society will face growing restrictions on fundamental civic freedoms, including in the form of anti-NGO laws and laws that label civil society as agents of foreign powers, the criminalisation of protests and increasing threats to the safety of activists and journalists. Civil society will have to devote more of its resources to protecting its space, at the expense of the resources available to promote and advance rights.

10. Despite these many challenges, civil society will continue to strive on all fronts. It will continue to combine advocacy, protests, online campaigns, strategic litigation and international diplomacy. As awareness grows of the interconnected and transnational nature of the challenges, it will emphasise solidarity actions that transcend national boundaries and make connections between different struggles in different contexts.

Even in difficult circumstances, civil society achieved some notable victories in 2024. In the Czech Republic, civil society’s efforts led to a landmark reform of rape laws, and in Poland they resulted in a law making emergency contraception available without prescription, overturning previous restrictive legislation. After extensive civil society advocacy, Thailand led the way in Southeast Asia by passing a marriage equality law, while Greece became the first predominantly Christian Orthodox country to legalise same-sex marriage

People defended democracy. In South Korea, people took to the streets in large numbers to resist martial law, while in Bangladesh, protest action led to the ousting of a longstanding authoritarian government. In Guatemala, a president committed to fighting corruption was sworn in after civil society organised mass protests to demand that powerful elites respect the election results, and in Venezuela, hundreds of thousands organised to defend the integrity of the election, defeated the authoritarian government in the polls and took to the streets in the face of severe repression when the results weren’t recognised. In Senegal, civil society mobilised to prevent an attempt to postpone an election that resulted in an opposition win.

Civil society won victories in climate and environmental litigation – including in Ecuador, India and Switzerland – to force governments to recognise the human rights impacts of climate change and do more to reduce emissions and curb pollution. Civil society also took to the courts to pressure governments to stop arms sales to Israel, with a successful verdict in the Netherlands and others pending.

In 2025, the struggle continues. Civil society will keep carrying the torch of hope that a more peaceful, just, equal and sustainable world is possible. This idea will remain as important as the tangible impact we’ll continue to achieve despite the difficult circumstances.

Andrew Firmin is Editor-in-Chief and Inés M. Pousadela is Senior Research Specialist at CIVICUS: World Alliance for Citizen Participation. The two are co-directors and writers for CIVICUS Lens and co-authors of the State of Civil Society Report.

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Mangroves, Madagascar. Credit: Rod Waddington
 
As part of the Great Blue Wall initiative, the goal is to safeguard 30% of the countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) by 2030, focusing on achieving a net gain in critical ecosystems such as mangroves, corals, and seagrasses.

By Jean-Paul Adam
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 24 2024 (IPS)

Securing new financing for global good has become more challenging than ever. Negotiations at the recently-concluded COP16 on Nature and Biodiversity failed to reach an agreement on establishing a fund to support the implementation of the Framework for Nature agreed in 2022 under the Montreal-Kunming agreement.

As with all multilateral action, commitments without resources lead to questions on the effectiveness of these global processes. The gap between global commitments and actual resource allocation hits African countries the hardest, as these countries often have limited capacity to generate those resources in the first place.

African negotiators have underscored the need for accountability in honouring multilateral commitments and will continue to maintain this stance at the upcoming climate negotiations.

Meanwhile, many African countries are actively seeking to unlock new funding streams for climate and environmental resilience through financial innovations such as debt swaps, green bonds, and blue bonds.

The Blue Economy has emerged as a key area of focus for Africa, and one of the priorities outlined in AU’s Agenda 2063. However, African countries continued to struggle in controlling and benefitting from their own resources.

A good example is the continuing deployment of harmful fisheries subsidies. The value of subsidies by distant fishing nations for their fleets operating in African waters representing on average twice the value of support that African nations are able to provide for their own fishing fleets.

This disparity undermines local economies and depletes Africa’s Ocean resources, further complicating efforts to build a sustainable and resilient blue economy.

The Great Blue Wall

African countries have sought to redefine the way in which they leverage their oceanic spaces to develop a ‘regenerative blue economy’. This implies re-investing in the ocean to create jobs that engage the community who are the stewards of oceans and coastal eco-systems.

This has been conceptualized through the Great Blue Wall initiative, an ambitious project that seeks to create a network of conserved and restored seascapes that benefit both the natural biodiversity and local communities’ livelihoods.

The initiative aims to protect 30% of the countries Exclusive Economic Zones by 2030 and produce a net gain in critical ecosystems like mangroves, corals and seagrasses. It is hoped that the initiative can contribute up to 70 million livelihoods in the region and up to 10 million blue jobs by 2030.

The Great Blue Wall initiative brings together 10 countries: Comoros, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, Somalia, South Africa, Tanzania, and France (through its overseas department of La Réunion). These countries are working together to enhance socio-ecological resilience, improve livelihoods, and strengthen climate change adaptation efforts.

Financing

Crucially, the initiative is seeking to raise financing towards a collective goal, while building on efforts being made by individual countries. This brings certain advantages, notably in creating economies of scale.

This common approach can also provide significant leverage in addressing issues such as fisheries management and moving away from the current extractive nature of fisheries subsidies to a community-led approach to the management of the resource.

Additionally, many other African countries are looking to tap into innovative climate finance opportunities to generate resources for investment in their blue economy.

For example, Cabo Verde and São Tomé and Príncipe have entered into agreements with Portugal to convert portions of their national debt into climate investments. For Cabo Verde, the agreement involves a debt swap of $12.9 million (€12 million), while São Tomé and Príncipe’s agreement covers $3.7 million (€3.5 million). These funds are redirected into climate investment projects rather than being paid directly to Portugal.

In Cabo Verde, the focus is on water, sanitation, and energy projects, including the expansion of a photovoltaic plant and the development of desalination and water treatment facilities. The initiative aims to use solar energy to produce desalinated water, addressing both energy and water needs.

São Tomé and Príncipe will similarly channel their debt repayments into a national climate fund, supporting various green investments and climate change adaptation projects.

This innovative approach ensures that the debt repayments contribute to sustainable development and environmental protection in these countries. While the amounts are relatively small, they can be catalysts for mobilizing larger funds.

It is with this in mind that Sao Tome and Principe have also announced the creation of a Conservation Trust Fund aimed at channeling resources into the preservation of their unique natural heritage and leveraging new associated economic opportunities such as eco-tourism.

All of these efforts to mobilize innovative climate financing are rooted in the needs of populations who are on the front line of climate change. This is perhaps the most meaningful part of these efforts, because it underscores the greatest challenge of multilateralism: ensuring that support is delivered to the most vulnerable in the community.

Investing in the nexus between climate, nature, and resilience is one of the most urgent and effective actions we can take. The right investments can help unlock the true value of Africa’s natural assets, estimated by the African Development Bank (AfDB) to be worth as much as USD $6.2 trillion.

We need global processes to deliver on the promise of predictable flows of finance at scale. However, equally important is the need to unlock African-driven initiatives that are built within communities. These innovations are helping to start that journey, paving the way for a meaningful change, empowering communities while addressing the challenges of climate change.

Jean-Paul Adam is the Director, Policy, Monitoring and Advocacy at the UN Office of the Special Adviser on Africa.

Source: Africa Renewal, United Nations

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Young Jordanians undertake soft skills training organized by local youth development organization, LOYAC Jordan. Credit: LOYAC Jordan

By Catherine Wilson
SKOPJE, North Macedonia , Dec 24 2024 (IPS)

It’s a bright winter day in Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia in the southern Balkans. By lunchtime, the cafes are full. The atmosphere is busy and social, and it is not difficult to see why the city, home to one-third of the country’s population of 2 million, is the focus of hope for young jobseekers. But, for many, it is not an easy road.

“It’s very tough to get employment. Young people here are waiting up to 18 months to find their first job,” 28-year-old Aleksandra Filipova told IPS. “But I am hopeful for the future,” she added. Filipova understands the challenges her generation faces and is determined to make hope a reality through her work with the National Youth Council of Macedonia, where she is Program Manager.

Last year, the global youth unemployment rate of 13 percent marked a significant decline in 15 years, reports the International Labour Organization (ILO). But the situation varies widely across regions. Large youth populations, uneven post-COVID-19 economic recovery, the Ukraine war and energy crisis, structural labour market issues, and socio-cultural expectations have contributed to above-average unemployment rates in parts of the Balkans, Middle East, and North Africa (MENA).

Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia, is home to one quarter of the country’s population and a focus for young jobseekers. Credit: Catherine Wilson/IPS

The Republic of North Macedonia is a landlocked nation located south of Serbia and north of Greece. It gained independence from the former Yugoslavia in 1991 and is planning accession to the European Union (EU). Economic growth has been slow in recent years. But a major obstacle in securing a job, even for the highly educated, is a mismatch between educational qualifications and skills required by employers. It’s a key factor in the youth unemployment rate of 28 percent, more than double the national rate of 13 percent.

“Our education system is based on theoretical knowledge and not on technical and vocational skills. Employers want to employ young people, but they need them to have other skills,” Filipova said. For the private sector, especially small and medium-sized businesses, “soft skills are missing, even just how to write an email or how to talk to people in a business environment. Entrepreneurial skills are needed. There is also a lack of people who speak foreign languages for global businesses,” she pointed out.

The National Youth Council of Macedonia has rolled out a paid internship program, in association with the government’s Youth Guarantee policy, which is generating employment success for the country’s youth. Credit: National Youth Council of Macedonia

The transition from education to work can be a disappointing experience for new jobseekers. And many, up to 45 percent of those employed, are turning to jobs unrelated to their education or informal work, such as market selling and seasonal hospitality work. Young women who face traditional social expectations are also highly represented in informal employment.

Long-term joblessness is a real risk. Last year, more than 73 percent of all unemployed people in the country had been out of work for more than a year, while one in five young people were not in employment or education, reports the ILO.

But, in 2018, the North Macedonian Government launched the Youth Guarantee policy—a pledge to respond to youth challenges. Four years later, aligned with the policy, the youth council launched a paid internship program, now hailed a major success. Today, 2,000 employers participate in offering two-month work placements.

“It works well for them [the employers] because they say that, after two months, they have long-term employees. During the internship, youths have learned the skills needed by the business,” Filipova said. “So they are investing in the long-term future of their business.” And 70 percent of young people who have taken a paid internship are now employed.

North Macedonia was the first Balkan country to implement the Youth Guarantee and demonstrate its success.

“About 60,000 young people have taken part in the Youth Guarantee program in North Macedonia so far. I’d like to point out that since 2019, statistics related to the labour market show significant and major improvement in relation to young people. The youth employment rate has increased by 3.5 percentage points compared to 2018,” North Macedonia’s Minister for Labour and Social Policy, Jagoda Shahpaska, told the media in 2021.

Youth employment is a significant focus of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals, and other internationally agreed frameworks emphasize the importance of youth development and engagement, and youth are seen as key to achieving the SDGS. 

One of the challenges youth face in the transition from education to employment is a skills mismatch with what recruiters require. Credit: LOYAC Jordan

Across the Mediterranean in the Levant region, youth face a similar plight in Jordan, where 63 percent of the population of 11 million people are aged under 30 years. The Hashemite Kingdom, which has managed economic stability while hosting more than 3 million refugees fleeing from conflicts in neighbouring Syria and the occupied Palestinian Territories, has a youth unemployment rate of 40 percent. It’s a common challenge across the MENA region, where one in three young people are unemployed and where 33 million new jobs will need to emerge by 2030 to meet the demands of working-age populations, forecasts the United Nations.

Every year, 100,000 young Jordanians, many highly educated, strive to enter the workforce. Economic growth is not generating enough jobs, and even the large public sector is unable to absorb increasing jobseekers.

“Jordan is one of the few Arab countries outside of the Gulf that has continued to provide fairly large numbers of public sector jobs to new jobseekers as part of its social pact, but this is fiscally very costly and distorts labour market incentives,” Dr. Steffen Hertog, Associate Professor in Comparative Politics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told IPS.

Amman, Jordan’s capital, a sprawling city on the edge of the Jordan Valley, is the administrative and commercial heartbeat of the country. Here, Ali Haddad, Executive Director of the Jordan Youth Innovation Forum, a national youth development organization, told IPS that many youths have “a strong preference for public sector jobs, as they are seen as more stable,” but growing the private sector was vital.

“Expanding businesses can absorb the increasing numbers of young jobseekers; private industries encourage skills development and innovation; and a robust private sector contributes to GDP growth, benefiting the economy and opening more opportunities for youth,” he said.

However, ensuring people can access opportunities is also essential. Ahmad Asfour, General Manager of LOYAC Jordan, a local social enterprise focused on youth skills development, said there were also rural-urban disparities in the country. “Employment opportunities are concentrated in urban areas, making it difficult for rural youth to access jobs,” while “women often face extra challenges such as societal norms, lack of childcare, and unequal pay.”

The skills mismatch with labour market expectations is a major hurdle too. Youths need communication, teamwork, and problem-solving skills, and an entrepreneurial mindset with critical thinking, innovation, digital, and business skills, Asfour said. LOYAC has also found success in bridging the gap with a national internship program. “We annually train 1,200 students and match 850 with internships on a national level, providing many with the skills, confidence, and connections necessary to secure employment,” Asfour said.

Empowering the younger generation is part of the Jordan Government’s 10-year development and modernization strategy, announced in 2021. It is committed “to provide a stimulating environment that enables young people to unleash their creative energies and contribute effectively to economic and social development,” Eng. Yazan Al-Shdeifat, Jordan’s Minister for Youth, said in a statement on 24 November.

And there have been entrepreneurial successes, Haddad emphasised, such as Arab Therapy, an online service that offers expert mental health support by Arab-speaking professionals to people worldwide. And Mawdoo3, founded by young Jordanian entrepreneurs, Mohammad Jaber and Rami Al Qawasmi, is now the world’s largest Arabic content platform and, in 2021, was listed by Forbes as one of the most visited websites in the Middle East.

Beyond the unemployment statistics, there are increasing numbers of youth finding employment success through dedicated initiatives in both regions. There is still a long way to go. But growing the successes is crucial for the generation that will determine future sustainable economic and national development in their countries and beyond.

Note: This article is brought to you by IPS Noram in collaboration with INPS Japan and Soka Gakkai International in consultative status with ECOSOC.

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Credit: Christian Valero Rebolledo/Cafe Words

By Timothy A. Wise
CAMBRIDGE, MA., Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

A tribunal of trade arbitrators has ruled in favor of the United States in its complaint that Mexico’s restrictions on genetically modified corn violate the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). The long-awaited ruling in the 16-month trade dispute is unlikely to settle the questions raised by Mexico about the safety of consuming GM corn and its associated herbicide.

Indeed, the pro-U.S. ruling raises questions about the fairness of the USMCA itself, which has now legitimized the use of the agreement’s dispute process to challenge a domestic policy that barely affected trade. U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is now openly threatening Mexico with 25% tariffs on all Mexican exports, a blatant violation of the USMCA that Trump himself renegotiated and signed in 2018. Yet the treaty appears impotent to challenge such unilateral U.S. trade measures just as its tribunal slaps Mexico’s hand for its public health policies.

According to the U.S. government, the final report from the tribunal, announced December 20, ruled that “Mexico’s measures are not based on science and undermine the market access that Mexico agreed to provide in the USMCA.” In fact, the trade panel’s ruling was more limited, demanding that Mexico comply with the trade agreement’s procedures for carrying out risk assessments based on “relevant international scientific principles.”

The Mexican government defended its position but vowed to comply with the ruling. “The Government of Mexico does not share the Panel’s determination, as it considers that the measures in question are in line with the principles of protection of public health and the rights of indigenous peoples, established in national legislation and in the international treaties to which it is a party,” read a statement following the ruling.

The ruling will not settle the debate over the health and environmental risks of GM corn and its associated herbicides, In the course of the dispute, Mexico produced extensive peer-reviewed scientific evidence that showed ample cause for precaution given the risks associated with both GM corn and its associated herbicide glyphosate. Recent studies have shown negative health impacts to the gastrointestinal tract and potential damage to the liver, kidneys, and other organs.

“[We] did an exhaustive review of the scientific literature,” explained María Elena Àlvarez-Buylla, the molecular geneticist who led Mexico’s national science agency, CONAHCYT, until October. “We concluded that the evidence was more than sufficient to restrict, out of precaution, the use of GM corn and its associated agro-chemical, glyphosate, in the country’s food supply chains.”

That evidence was presented in great detail to the tribunal in Mexico’s formal filings during the process, and it has now been published as a “Science Dossier.” It represents one of the most comprehensive reviews of the scientific evidence of the risks of GM corn and glyphosate to public health and the environment.

For its part, the U.S. government declined to present evidence that its GM corn with glyphosate residues is safe to eat in Mexico, where corn is consumed at more than ten times the levels as in the United States and in minimally processed forms such as tortillas, not in processed foods.

“The research on the part of the U.S. was quite poor,” says Dr. Álvarez-Buylla, noting that U.S. research was outdated, ignored many recent studies, and depended on science that is “full of conflicts of interest.”

The U.S. government also failed to produce any evidence that Mexico’s February 2023 presidential decree had any meaningful impacts on U.S. exporters. U.S. corn exports have increased since the decree was enacted, not shrunk. The measures restricted only GM white corn use in tortillas, less than 1% of the U.S. corn exported to Mexico.

Early on in the dispute, Mexican Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro stated that the U.S. needed to show “quantitatively, with numbers, something that has not occurred: that the corn decree has commercially affected” U.S. exporters. The U.S. has yet to produce any such evidence.

Meanwhile, president-elect Trump’s threatened tariffs are blatantly illegal under the USMCA and promise to inflict massive economic harm on Mexican exporters, and on U.S.-based firms that produce in Mexico.

The pro-U.S., pro-agrochemical industry ruling will ripple far beyond this dispute. Mexico’s documentation of the evidence of risk from GM corn and glyphosate should prompt consumers and governments the world over to take a closer look at these controversial products, and at the lax U.S. regulatory processes exposed by Mexico.

Countries considering entering into trade agreements with the United States may now be more reluctant to do so if their domestic policies can be challenged in a trade court. Kenya has been negotiating a trade agreement with the United States. Kenyans are already concerned the agreement will open Kenya to GM animal feeds, says Anne Maina of the Kenya Biodiversity and Biosafety Association. If the agreement can be used to challenge domestic policies, she says, it will be even less palatable.

It remains to be seen how the Mexican government will comply with the ruling. It has 45 days to respond. Already, President Claudia Sheinbaum has reiterated her support for a constitutional amendment to enshrine a ban on GM corn cultivation and consumption in tortillas. A “Right to Food” law passed last year mandates labeling of foods containing GMOs. No tortilla seller wants such a label on its products, because Mexican consumers are clear that they do not want GM corn in their tortillas.

The tribunal’s ruling will not undo the fact that Mexico’s precautionary policies are indeed justified by a wealth of scientific evidence. By allowing the trade agreement to undermine a domestic policy that barely affects trade, it will further tarnish the legitimacy of an agreement already seen as favoring multinational corporations over public health and the environment.

Timothy A. Wise is a senior research fellow at Tufts University’s Global Development and Environment Institute.

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By Emilio Godoy
MERIDA, Mexico, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

When he promoted the Maya Train (TM) in 2019, then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who ruled Mexico between 2018 and October this year, stated that the railway line would be an engine of development for the southeastern Yucatan peninsula.

The three states of the peninsula – Campeche, Quintana Roo and Yucatan – were offered spaces for craftspeople and ecotourism in the stations, as well as the transfer of thousands of tourists, the promotion of alternative tourism and the creation of jobs.

But one year after three of the five established routes began operating, there is little evidence of the promised benefits.

It is true that more international tourists have arrived at airports in Merida, the capital of the southeastern state of Yucatan, or tourist destinations such as Cozumel in neighbouring Quintana Roo, between January and September, compared to the same period in 2023.

However, in Cancun, the peninsula’s tourist hotspot, with one station, those arrivals fell 1.5%, making it difficult for experts to attribute the higher overall tourist arrivals to the TM.

Between December 2023 and last August, the TM carried 340,622 passengers, at a rate of 1,425 per day, according to official figures. Cancun, Merida, Playa del Carmen, Valladolid and Palenque, which has an archaeological site, account for 80% of the passengers.

Mayan craftsperson Alicia Pech does not know the railway, says she has no money to travel, that more people have not arrived and that sales are low.

The train, intended for tourists, curious users and the local population, among whom it arouses little enthusiasm, is empty at the larger stations, Merida or Cancun, and fares are low at the smaller ones.

As in other stations, Maxcanu, part of section 3 that runs between Calkini (Campeche) and Izamal (Yucatan) has eight empty shops with signs such as ‘Food’, ‘Community Tourism’ and ‘Mayan Handicrafts’.

The same thing happens in Valladolid, part of section 4 that connects Izamal with Cancun, and in the Merida-Teya station, also on route 3, there are two food shops, one that offers TM souvenirs, a car rental place, and another one that advertises a future bakery.

José Rodríguez, originally from Cancn, was disappointed because the difference in cost compared to land transport is low and because of a one-hour delay he had on his commute to Merida.

Of the 34 planned stations, only 26 are operating, as Sedena is still tending the last two sections between Felipe Carrillo Puerto, in Quintana Roo, and Centenario, in Campeche.

To increase revenues and minimise losses, President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office on 1 October, plans to expand it to Puerto Progreso, on the Yucatan coast north of Merida, to move cargo.

The Mexican government has known since 2022 that the mega-project would increase the budget. The Cost-Benefit Analysis Update, prepared that year by a private Mexican consulting firm, concluded that the cost would go from two to four times its original cost.

But the TM will continue to consume money, as the 2025 budget proposal includes a budget of US$2,173 million, added to the delay of the project and a total cost overrun that already exceeds US$15 billion.

 
CIVICUS discusses the ongoing crackdown on civil society in Belarus with Natallia Satsunkevich, human rights defender and interim board member of the Viasna Human Rights Centre.

Belarusian authorities have stepped up arrests in a bid to stifle any remaining opposition to President Alexander Lukashenko, who is seeking a seventh term in the January 2025 presidential election. Over 1,200 people have been detained since the end of September, many for participating in online chats that have been used to organise protests since the 2020 election. The authorities describe these as part of an extremist network. Some of those arrested have been charged with conspiracy to seize power, carrying a potential prison sentence of up to 15 years. Around 1,300 political prisoners are currently being held in overcrowded prisons, while opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya remains in exile.

Natallia Satsunkevich

As the presidential election approaches, the authorities have intensified their crackdown on civil society and political opposition. This isn’t new – repression has been escalating since the protests following the 2020 stolen election – but in recent months it has taken an even darker turn.

One of the regime’s main tools is the criminalisation of independent organisations and media. Viasna, for example, has been declared an ‘extremist formation’. This means anyone who interacts with us – whether by sharing information, giving an interview or offering support – risks being arrested and prosecuted. This level of repression has created a climate of fear where people are too afraid to speak out about human rights abuses or take part in activism.

There has also been an increase in arrests, house searches and interrogations. Many of those arrested during the 2020 protests are still in prison and new arrests are taking place almost every day. The political opposition inside the country has been effectively silenced, with most of its leaders imprisoned or driven into exile. It’s clear that Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime is determined to hold onto power at all costs.

Is there any question of the outcome being at stake?

Unfortunately, no. Elections in Belarus are so heavily manipulated that they’re little more than formalities to legitimise Lukashenko’s rule. We’ve been monitoring and campaigning for free and fair elections for years, along with groups like the Belarusian Helsinki Committee, but at the moment those conditions simply don’t exist.

The opposition has been completely sidelined. Many of its leaders are either in prison or have fled the country. Alternative candidates aren’t allowed to run, and any form of opposition campaigning is banned. The state-controlled media is completely one-sided, constantly pushing the narrative that Lukashenko has overwhelming public support, while silencing anyone who disagrees.

With no transparency or accountability, the outcome is already decided. This election is just another tool to keep Lukashenko in power for as long as possible.

What are the likely post-election scenarios?

After the election, things are likely to stay much the same. The regime is likely to continue its authoritarian rule and we have little hope for immediate change.

For Belarus to move towards democracy, the first step would be to release all political prisoners. Almost 1,300 people, including opposition leaders, activists and journalists, are currently behind bars on politically motivated charges. They should be allowed to participate in the political process.

The government must also end its campaign of repression. Widespread arrests, searches, interrogations and torture have created an atmosphere of fear that stifles any form of dissent. Reform of the police and judicial systems is essential to address this.

Belarus also needs genuinely free and fair elections. This means opposition candidates should be able to campaign openly and people must be able to vote without fear of retribution.

Finally, accountability for human rights abuses is crucial. Those responsible for torture, unlawful detention and silencing dissent must be held accountable. This is vital for restoring trust and building a democratic future.

How can the international community support democratic transition?

The international community has been a lifeline for the Belarusian people, and this support must continue. Financial aid and solidarity from democratic states, particularly the European Union and the USA, have enabled many activists, including myself and others who’ve had to leave Belarus for our own safety, to continue our work.

Public condemnation of the regime’s actions also helps. Even if it doesn’t lead to immediate change, it shows Belarusian people and the government that the world is watching and reminds the authorities that actions have consequences.

It is also important to seek accountability through international legal mechanisms. Since we can’t hold perpetrators to account inside Belarus, it is essential to seek justice outside the country. States such as Lithuania and Poland have already begun investigating crimes committed by the regime and have referred cases to the International Criminal Court. These efforts show that there is a global determination to hold those in power to account.

The crisis in Belarus must be recognised as an international issue and kept on the international agenda. The United Nations has described the regime’s actions as crimes against humanity, making it clear this is not just a domestic matter: it’s an international crisis that demands international attention and action.

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SEE ALSO
Belarus: ‘Despite the repression, we haven’t halted our work for a single day’ Interview with Marina Kostylianchenko 16.Dec.2023
Belarus: ‘There is a pro-democracy civil society that opposes the war and advocates for democratic reforms’ Interview with Anastasiya Vasilchuk 22.Mar.2023
Belarus: a prison state in Europe CIVICUS Lens 15.Mar.2023

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Do you sometimes feel like a hamster on its wheel, or perhaps stuck on a runaway train hurtling towards the abyss? Whatever metaphor one might choose for our world looking back on 2024, rainbows don’t easily spring to mind.

Farhana Haque Rahman

The COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, were ostensibly about trying to find agreements on how to tackle the global climate crisis. Two weeks of negotiations, covered in detail by IPS, came close to collapse, ending just short of total failure.

As 2024 raced towards a place in the record books as the planet’s hottest year on record, a meaningful Baku accord on climate finance for poorer nations was once again stymied by powerful nations and their geopolitical rivalries, squabbling about accountability against a backdrop of already rising debts.

In the words of Mohamed Adow, director of climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, the rich world staged “a great escape in Baku with no real money on the table and vague and unaccountable promises of funds to be mobilised.” (One might also add that major emitting countries like China and India, which project power and wealth but refuse to be defined as ‘rich’, also got off lightly in Baku).

Disputes over finance for a new fund also sank the COP16 biodiversity summit held in Cali, Colombia, where exhausted delegates failed to reach consensus.

In a blow for those seeking to prevent mass species extinction, countries also failed to agree on a new framework for monitoring progress on tackling biodiversity loss.

A landmark new report by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) warns that deep, fundamental shifts in how people view and interact with the natural world are urgently needed to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and safeguard life on Earth.

The IPBES Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity – also known as the Transformative Change Report – builds on the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment Report, which found that the only way to achieve global development goals is through transformative change, and on the 2022 IPBES Values Assessment Report.

Critical in terms of their contributions to humanity, but confined to the sidelines in these big power orchestrations, organizations like OCHA, the IOM and WHO act both as harbingers of doom while attempting to carry out essential repair and maintenance work amidst the wreckage.

Greg Puley, head of the Climate Team at the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued a clarion call for an ambitious and fair global climate finance goal at COP29. “This year alone we witnessed devastating floods in the Sahel, extreme heatwaves in Asia and Latin America, and drought in Southern Africa,” he told IPS.

Also going unheeded was an appeal to Israel in November to halt its assault on North Gaza. Fifteen UN and other humanitarian organizations described the crisis there as “apocalyptic”. In that context the World Health Organization said its second round of polio vaccinations in the Gaza Strip had been partially successful.

Analysis by the UN Human Rights Office showed that nearly 70 percent of those killed in the war in Gaza were women and children.

“Gaza is becoming a graveyard for children,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said on November 6. “More journalists have reportedly been killed over a four-week period than in any conflict in at least three decades. More United Nations aid workers have been killed than in any comparable period in the history of our organization,” he added.

Over 10 million people have been displaced by conflict inside Sudan while an additional 2.2 million have fled the country. Warring parties regularly attack civilians, inflicting terrible violence against women. Madiha Abdalla, an activist journalist forced to flee Sudan, wrote for IPS describing how women human rights defenders have been targeted.

Despite the scale of the suffering in Sudan, international attention is waning and aid has been blocked. Russia vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution.

As the world observed the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women on November 25, UN Women data showed almost one in three women around the world have been subjected to physical and/or sexual violence at least once in their life.

Individual activists like Abdalla are particularly vulnerable with little or no backup during conflicts. But 2024 has also seen entire organizations up sticks and leave. Haiti is an example. More than 700,000 people have been displaced there as gang violence has escalated, particularly since deployment of the underfunded Multinational Security Support mission.

Doctors Without Borders, active in Haiti for over 30 years, said it was suspending critical care in the capital Port-au-Prince following repeated threats from local law enforcement towards staff and patients. The UN also ordered the evacuation of its staff from the capital in what it somewhat euphemistically called a temporary reduction of its “footprint” in Port-au-Prince. UNICEF said an unprecedented number of children had been recruited by gangs.

Refugees from Haiti even became a weapon in Donald Trump’s US election campaign when he accused Haitian immigrants of eating the cats and dogs of residents in Springfield, Ohio. Trump’s false claim – widely debunked – apparently did nothing to derail his ultimately successful campaign in which the former president repeatedly proclaimed his intention to carry out mass deportations of undocumented migrants if elected president.

Paradoxically, his deportation plans might be spurred on further by the International Organization’s World Migration Report 2024 detailing unprecedented numbers of international migrants worldwide – estimated at 281 million. In turn this has led to a spike in remittances to their home countries worth hundreds of billions of dollars, making up a “significant” chunk of the GDP of developing countries.

Trump’s disdain for international organisations and binding commitments involved in membership makes it likely that he will repeat the drastic steps taken in his 2016-21 term in office, such as the US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and freezing of contributions to the WHO.

As 2024 draws to a close with the ominous spread of renewed war in Syria, a more isolationist US under Trump reminds us of the value of those lesser known organisations slipping under the radar, such as the Sasakawa Foundation campaigning to end leprosy and its stigma; IITA/CGIAR and their commitment to small farms and transforming food systems in Africa; the scientists developing a new vaccine to boost immunity to malaria.

A long and positive list this time. Even on the climate front, progress should also be recognized and nurtured, even if coming too late and too slowly, such as the expectation that the world might see a peak in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, thanks in part to giant leaps in solar and wind capacity.

People do have the powers to make a difference too, whether to elect a Trump or oust a corrupt would-be autocrat, as 2024 demonstrated.

Dr Muhammad Yunus, 84-year-old Chief Advisor of Bangladesh’s interim government and Nobel peace prize laureate, spoke in his first address to the United Nations of the “power of the ordinary people”, especially the young, to forge a “new Bangladesh” after mass protests against government corruption and violence ousted then prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August.

We might be on that train heading to the abyss but we do possess the knowledge and tools to apply the brakes. If only we could learn the lessons.

Farhana Haque Rahman is Senior Vice President of IPS Inter Press Service and Executive Director IPS Noram; she served as the elected Director General of IPS from 2015-2019. A journalist and communications expert, she is a former senior official of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

IPS UN Bureau

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Thirteen generators were distributed from the UNICEF warehouse in Deir Al Balah, to be used to operate critical water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities in south Gaza. Credit: UNICEF/Mohammed Nateel

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

As talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine intensify, bombardments in Gaza continue, raising the number of civilian casualties and internal displacements. A December 19 report from Human Rights Watch (HRW) condemned Israeli authorities for committing acts of genocide upon the people in the Gaza Strip, including the deprivation of water and the destruction of critical water sanitation infrastructures.

According to estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO), a person needs between 50 to 100 liters of water on a daily basis in order to ensure that “basic needs are met.” In emergency situations, it is estimated that people can survive off of 15 liters per day. Officials from HRW estimate that Gazans only have access to approximately 2 to 9 liters of water per day, which is inadequate for drinking, cooking, and washing.

“Water is essential for human life, yet for over a year the Israeli government has deliberately denied Palestinians in Gaza the bare minimum they need to survive. This isn’t just negligence; it is a calculated policy of deprivation that has led to the deaths of thousands from dehydration and disease that is nothing short of the crime against humanity of extermination, and an act of genocide,” said HRW Executive-Director Tirana Hasan.

On January 26 this year, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued provisional measures mandating that Israel prevent genocide in Gaza by enabling the delivery of humanitarian assistance and basic services. However, numerous violations were recorded throughout the year.

An Oxfam International analysis estimates that approximately 47,634 cubic meters of water are produced in Gaza every day. However, roughly 80 percent of this water supply is lost in leakages due to the damage of water filtration systems caused by Israeli airstrikes. Only about 10,714 cubic meters reach the Gazan population on a daily basis. This is entirely avoidable as the minimum water quantity required by the population is approximately 33,900 cubic meters.

Satellite photos and videos obtained by HRW showed extensive damage to water sanitation infrastructures from Israeli bombardments. It has also been reported that Israeli authorities have cut off electricity in the enclave, which essentially renders critical infrastructures such as water pumps, desalination plants, and generators ineffective.

Additionally, HRW has documented instances of Israeli bombardments that have killed water utility workers, destroyed water equipment warehouses, and impeded the delivery of water-related aid from the United Nations (UN) and other humanitarian organizations. HRW also states that Israeli authorities had also “deliberately” restricted the delivery of fuel in Gaza, which has essentially choked civilians off from rescue efforts, healthcare services, hygienic resources, and bakery operations.

According to a statement from the Union of Gaza Strip Municipalities, the depletion of water services has resulted in “solid waste accumulation, and wastewater leakage onto streets and residential areas.” A spokesperson from WHO informed HRW that “damaged water and sanitation systems, and dwindling cleaning supplies have made it almost impossible to maintain basic infection prevention and control measures (in healthcare facilities).”

This has led to the rampant development of disease among millions of displaced Gazans. WHO reports that there have been 132,000 cases of jaundice, a symptom of hepatitis A. 225,000 cases of skin infections have also been recorded, which have largely been attributed to the spread of over 1 million cases of acute respiratory diseases.

According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), documented cases of diarrhea among children under age five has risen from 48,000 to 71,0000. This marks a 2000 percent increase since October 7, 2023. Doctors in Gaza have told HRW personnel that dehydration and malnutrition are so severe that it is almost impossible to treat patients that are struggling with disease, as their immune systems have been severely weakened.

In early December, talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine were reported in the media, with authorities from both parties expressing satisfaction at the possibility of an imminent agreement. Humanitarian organizations including the UN have also expressed optimism.

Georgios Petropoulos, the Head of OCHA’s (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) sub-office in Gaza, informed reporters on December 20 that there would likely be a loosening of restrictions imposed by Israeli authorities, resulting in increased security for the people of Gaza and more effective deliveries of humanitarian aid. Petropoulos also predicted that people would begin returning home, rubble would begin to be cleared, and basic services would begin running again.

Despite this, Israel continues to coordinate hostilities within the enclave, threatening the lives of thousands on a daily basis. The Palestinian Health Ministry confirmed that a series of airstrikes took place on December 19 in Jabalia, Tuffah, Gaza City, and Beit Lahiya, killing a total of 41 civilians.

A recent report from the humanitarian and medical aid organization, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), states that the repeated airstrikes, enforced mass displacements, and sustained blockages of humanitarian aid constitute “ethnic cleansing”.

“People in Gaza are struggling to survive apocalyptic conditions, but nowhere is safe, no one is spared, and there is no exit from this shattered enclave,” said MSF Secretary-General Christopher Lockwood. “The recent military offensive in the north is a stark illustration of the brutal war the Israeli forces are waging on Gaza, and we are seeing clear signs of ethnic cleansing as Palestinians are forcibly displaced, trapped, and bombed.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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The Government of Romania, a Balkan state to the south of Ukraine, and its humanitarian partners have offered extensive support to Ukrainians fleeing the escalation of the conflict with Russia since 2022. Beneficiaries receive food and humanitarian provisions from the Romania Red Cross. Credit: Filip Scarlat/Romanian Red Cross

By Catherine Wilson
BUCHAREST, Romania , Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

The days are short with bitterly cold rain in Bucharest, the capital of Romania, the largest Balkan country located south of the Ukraine. Over the border, temperatures in Kyiv will plummet to a daily average of zero in December as the Ukraine war grinds on.

Wars are bringing suffering and heightened insecurity to millions around the world, and food is not only a casualty of bombing and devastation but also being used as a weapon against civilians by warring parties.

Conflict is now the greatest driver of major food crises in the world, says the World Food Programme, and the situation is acute in the Ukraine, which continues to defend itself against Russian invasion, and Gaza, still under siege by Israel. And the threat of severe hunger for civilians caught in hostilities will only rise as winter sets in during the coming months.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, an escalation of tensions since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, triggered massive human displacement, with many fleeing into neighbouring countries. By 2023, Romania, with a population of 19 million, had witnessed more than 3 million Ukrainians arrive at its border, the vast majority being women and children.

“The bombs fell down near my house. I woke up; my 13-year-old daughter woke up. I got up my son and said, ‘You have five minutes; grab your things, and we are going to the metro station.’ We found a car to pick us up with the children and to the house of my sister, her newborn baby, and two more children of her husband. It was crazy. Everywhere there were queues. You couldn’t get money from the ATM, you couldn’t get fuel—nothing.” Iryna Sobol, a 45-year-old Ukrainian who fled her Kyiv home in 2022 and now resides in Bucharest, recounted to IPS. And, as the conflict spread, food prices rose.

As with other basic needs, food systems face collapse when military attacks destroy agricultural land and crops, forcing farmers to flee and damaging the critical infrastructure for transporting, storing, and selling food. Since 2022, the agricultural industry in the Ukraine has been hit with losses of USD 80 billion. And as people under siege face increasingly scarce food supplies, prices rise for what is available, making basic sustenance an even greater struggle for those who have lost their income.

Since mid-year, Russian forces have made aggressive advances into the east and Donetsk region of Ukraine, where more than 137,000 people have been forced to flee since August.

Ukraine refugees receive food provisions from the Romania Red Cross in Bucharest. Credit: Filip Scarlat/Romanian Red Cross

“The humanitarian situation is further exacerbated now that winter has set in. Russia’s targeted destruction of critical energy infrastructure has led to massive losses in Ukraine’s energy generation capacity, and the attacks continue, disrupting electricity, heating, and water supply and already affecting millions of households,” Elisabeth Haslund, spokesperson for the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in the Ukraine, told IPS. Food is also a critical need, with 7.3 million Ukrainians, or 20 percent of the population, facing food insecurity this year, reports the United Nations.

In Bucharest, Andrei Scarlat, Manager of the Romanian Red Cross Humanity Concept Store, said he had witnessed a recent increase of newly arrived Ukrainian refugees registering for humanitarian supplies, such as flour, sugar, rice, canned foods, and hygiene products.

The Romanian Red Cross, which has assisted more than 1.3 million displaced Ukrainians with food, water, shelter, and health, is one of many humanitarian organizations that are partnered with the Romanian government in its acclaimed state response to the Ukraine refugee crisis. Within days of its neighbour coming under attack, the Balkan state coordinated an emergency operation at border crossings with the provision of shelter, food, and medical care to those fleeing. And it offers temporary protection to refugees with access to services such as health, education, housing, and employment.

An Action Against Hunger aid worker measures a baby girl’s arm using a MUAC band to assess nutritional health in Gaza, August 2024. Credit: Action Against Hunger

But, more than 2,000 kilometres to the southeast, conflict in the besieged Palestinian enclave of Gaza has already brought it to the brink of famine. In the tiny 365-square-kilometer territory, sandwiched between the Mediterranean Sea to the east and Israel to the west, 2.23 million Palestinians have endured years of suffering under an Israeli blockade. Now the military onslaught by the Israeli Defence Force in retaliation for a Hamas-led attack inside Israeli territory on 7 October last year, which left 1,200 Israelis dead, has killed more than 44,000 Palestinians.

And the destruction of basic infrastructure for habitation, including water, sanitation, health and medical facilities, and food systems, with the elimination of 70 percent of Gaza’s crops, has created unbearable living conditions for the more than 90 percent of Gazans who are displaced. In October, the World Food Programme warned that famine was imminent.

“The Gaza Strip is currently in a human-made famine. We are long past the point of ‘imminent famine.’ The first child was killed by Israeli-imposed famine many months ago and many more since,” Yasmeen El-Hasan of the Palestinian Union of Agricultural Work Committees in Ramallah, Palestine, told IPS. “The use of food and essential resources as weapons of war is a hallmark of Israeli systematic violence against Palestinians… aimed at starving Palestinians into elimination.”

In Northern Gaza, the focus of Israeli air and ground assaults over the past two months, more than 65,000 people are barely surviving in overcrowded tent shelters with no water and sanitation. The dire lack of food is causing severe malnutrition, especially in mothers and children.

And since October, Israeli border authorities have blocked and delayed food and humanitarian deliveries into the territory through the Kerem Shalom crossing. Consequently, in October only 5,000 metric tons of food succeeded in reaching Gaza, or one fifth of what was required, claims the World Food Programme.

“There has been no significant easing of restrictions on the entry of food and humanitarian aid into Gaza… and we were only able to deliver aid to half as many distribution points in North Gaza over the past month,” the spokesperson for Action Against Hunger, a humanitarian organization addressing hunger and malnutrition around the world, told IPS.

El-Hasan added that “the minimal food that is available is not accessible. The food consumer price index has increased 312 percent; aid that does enter is concentrated in small areas, and the Israeli occupation forces often attack Palestinians as they seek aid.”

A child in northern Gaza drinks water provided by Action Against Hunger to support displaced communities, October 2024. Credit: Action Against Hunger

A scene of destruction in northern Gaza shows demolished buildings and scattered debris, with a lone tree standing amidst the ruins, October 2024. Credit: Action Against Hunger

As the winter months unfold, the people of Gaza will face catastrophic conditions, with 90 percent of Gazans likely to experience severe hunger. “Cold and rainy weather is already affecting those in makeshift shelters, which are often constructed from tarpaulins, blankets, and cardboard, offering little protection. Children and the elderly are particularly at risk,” said Action Against Hunger.

On 12 December, the UN General Assembly voted for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. But the survival of Gazans during the coming months will depend on the untrammelled passage of humanitarian aid. “There must be an immediate reopening of all border crossings, a substantial increase in the influx of aid into Gaza, and a guarantee of safe, unobstructed access for humanitarian organizations to deliver aid to all areas,” the spokesperson for Action Against Hunger continued. El-Hasan added that “the international community must also abide by their legal obligations and hold Israel accountable for its violations of international law, including the use of starvation as a weapon of war.”

In the Ukraine, the UNHCR and its humanitarian partners are responding to those who continue to flee fighting and need support as weather conditions deteriorate. But, as in Gaza, only an end to the conflict will provide the conditions for reconstructing Ukraine’s agricultural industry and food production, a goal that will take years and an investment of at least USD 56 billion.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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A volcano in Vanuatu was active in 2023. The county was affected by a 6.6 M earthquake in March 2023 and 7.4 M earthquake in December 2024. Credit: Unsplash/Sebastian Lio

By Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood and Sanjay Srivastava
BANGKOK, Thailand, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

In December 2024, Vanuatu experienced yet another harrowing reminder of its vulnerability to disasters—a powerful 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific nation’s capital, Port Vila, leaving 14 dead, over 200 injured, and thousands more affected.

The devastating earthquake, compounded by overnight aftershocks and disrupted essential services, highlights the precarious situation faced by countries already grappling with the impacts of climate change and natural disasters.

Vanuatu is emblematic of the cascading disasters that Pacific Island nations increasingly endure, where frequent earthquakes intersect with the escalating impacts of climate-induced hazards such as cyclones, rising sea levels, and coastal erosion accompanied by staggering loss and damage experienced by vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

With every fraction of a degree of warming, the region’s diverse subregions—from the icy peaks of the Third Pole to the low-lying islands of the Pacific—are encountering unparalleled climate risks.

Recognizing these unique challenges, ESCAP launched the 2024 Asia-Pacific Subregional Disaster Reports to customize the insights and recommendations from the flagship Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2023 to the distinct vulnerabilities and opportunities within each subregion.

Transformative insights: Shaping climate resilient futures

The 2024 subregional reports reveal escalating disaster risks across Asia and the Pacific, stressing that incremental actions are insufficient against intensifying climate impacts. East and North-East Asia has faced $2 trillion in economic losses and nearly half a million fatalities over five decades, with 2°C warming expected to exacerbate droughts, heatwaves, and floods in China, Mongolia and Korea, threatening urban centers and critical systems.

North and Central Asia faces growing multi-hazard risks in the Aral Sea Basin, where droughts, heatwaves, and floods will endanger agriculture and energy systems. In South-East Asia, nearly 100 per cent of the population is at risk of floods under 2°C warming, with the Mekong River Basin emerging as a persistent multi-hazard hotspot.

Pacific island nations face rising seas and stronger cyclones that erode coastlines, threaten biodiversity, and force communities to relocate, while South and South-West Asia grapples with glacial melt from the Third Pole, jeopardizing water security for 1.3 billion people.

Economic and social costs are mounting, with average annual losses (AAL) projected to rise under warming scenarios. East and North-East Asia’s AAL of $510 billion could increase further under 2°C warming, while the Pacific’s AAL exceeds $20 billion, with small island developing states like Vanuatu and Tonga suffering losses of over 21 per cent of GDP.

Despite these dire projections, the reports emphasize that investments in transformative adaptation—such as early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and integrated climate policies—can mitigate risks and protect livelihoods across the region.

Early warning systems: A lifeline for resilience

A critical takeaway from the subregional reports is the transformative role of early warning systems (EWS) in disaster risk reduction. By providing timely and actionable information, these systems save lives and reduce economic losses. In South-East Asia, effective EWS could prevent $8.7 billion to $13.1 billion annually, while in the Pacific, they could avert $4 billion to $6 billion in damages each year.

EWS are especially vital in regions with complex multi-hazard risks, such as the Pacific small island developing States, where cyclones, floods, and sea-level rise intersect, and in South-East Asia, where urban flood risks are rapidly escalating.

For EWS to be fully effective, they must encompass four key pillars: risk knowledge, detection and monitoring, dissemination of warnings, and preparedness. Investments in these areas, combined with robust regional cooperation, can ensure that warnings reach the most vulnerable populations in time to act.

The reports highlight examples like impact-based forecasting in South and Southwest Asia and AI-powered risk assessments in China and Japan as transformative advancements in EWS implementation. These systems not only save lives but also help governments and communities reduce disaster recovery costs and safeguard economic stability.

Transboundary solutions: Collaborative action for shared risks

Transboundary risks like ocean-based hazards, inland water stress, and desertification demand collaborative solutions across regions.

1. Ocean-Based Climate Action:

Rising sea levels, intensified cyclones, and coastal erosion require collective efforts such as mangrove restoration and integrated coastal management. In the Pacific SIDS, ASEAN, and South-West Asia, platforms like the Pacific Resilience Partnership and Mekong Basin initiatives foster nature-based solutions to protect ecosystems and livelihoods.

2. Inland Water Systems:

The drying of the Aral Sea Basin in North and Central Asia highlights the importance of transboundary water-sharing agreements to combat drought and degradation. For Third Pole glacial melt, collaboration through the Third Pole Climate Forum is vital to safeguard water security for 1.3 billion people in South, South-West, and East Asia.

3. Desertification and Sand and Dust Storms:

Desertification and sand and dust storms (SDS) are accelerating across Asia. Countries like China, Mongolia, and Iran are advancing afforestation and land restoration, while regional frameworks promote sustainable land management to mitigate downstream impacts.

By prioritizing transboundary cooperation, countries can tackle shared risks, protect vulnerable communities, and build scalable solutions for resilience.

A call for transformative change

The 2024 subregional reports make it unequivocally clear: transformative, not incremental, adaptation is needed to combat the growing threats of climate change and disasters. This means embedding climate resilience in every sector—agriculture, energy, urban planning, and biodiversity conservation—while fostering regional cooperation to address transboundary risks.

By aligning local action with global frameworks like the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Paris Agreement, the Asia-Pacific region has an opportunity to lead the way in building a sustainable and resilient future. As ESCAP’s subregional reports demonstrate, the tools and knowledge are at hand. The time to act is now—before the risks become irreversible and the costs unmanageable.

Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood is Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP & Sanjay Srivastava is Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP. Other co-authors include Leila Salarpour Goodarzi, Associate Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP, Rusali Agrawal, Consultant, ESCAP, Naina Tanwar, Consultant, ESCAP, Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood, Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP and Sanjay Srivastava, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP.

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Credit: US Department of Defense (DoD)

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

The United States and Western allies have jointly provided a staggering $260 billion in aid, mostly weapons and military assistance, to Ukraine as the long-drawn-out conflict continues following Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

Speaking to reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels early December, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “All told, the United States has provided $102 billion in assistance to Ukraine, and our allies and partners, $158 billion”.

“And as I said many times before, this may be the best example of burden-sharing that I’ve seen in the 32 years that I’ve been doing this”, he said.

Last week, the New York Times reported the Pentagon will be sending an additional $725 million in arms from its stockpiles, “amid deep concerns in Ukraine that the incoming Trump administration might cut off military aid to the country”.

Meanwhile, as the UN continues its losing battle against world poverty, the UN University’s World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), says to end extreme poverty and absolute monetary poverty worldwide by 2030, it would cost about $70 and $325 billion per year.

Dr. Natalie Goldring, who represents the Acronym Institute at the United Nations on conventional weapons and arms trade issues, told IPS as outgoing US President Joe Biden approaches the end of his presidency in mid-January, “he continues to keep the arms transfer spigot to Ukraine wide open”.

Credit: US Department of Defense (DoD)

In early December 2024, she quoted Blinken as saying, “The United States has been surging our own resources and security assistance to continue to help build up Ukraine’s air defenses, its artillery, its armored vehicles.”

“We are determined – and it’s fully my intent and the President’s intent – to spend every cent that we have available from the $61 billion that were authorized by Congress in the supplemental appropriation.”

“The current situation in Ukraine is fraught and filled with uncertainty. There are many potential risks, including the risk of a broader war in Europe if this conflict continues, and the risk of Russia claiming more and more Ukrainian territory, either through conflict or as a result of negotiations to end the war,” said Dr Goldring.

“The continued flows of weapons from the United States also risk diversion to terrorists and combatants far outside the region. This, in turn, increases the likelihood that US military service members could face our own weapons in conflict. This suggests — yet again — that US arms transfer policy lacks appropriate focus on the potential long-term negative effects of these transfers,” she pointed out.

In his interview with Time magazine, which voted him “Person of the Year” last week, President-elect Trump said: ”I disagree vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles to Russia. Why are we doing that? We are just escalating this war and making it worse.”

Trump also said he would use US support for Ukraine as leverage against Russia in negotiating an end to the war.

Dr Goldring said perhaps the most dangerous action the outgoing Biden Administration has taken, with respect to Ukraine, is its decision to transfer antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine in November and December 2024.

This decision, she said, reverses the Obama and Biden Administrations’ commitments not to deploy antipersonnel landmines anywhere other than the Korean peninsula.

This decision also endangers civilians, will make post-war recovery massively more difficult, and stands in stark opposition to the 164 countries that have committed not to produce, sell, or stockpile antipersonnel landmines under the Mine Ban Treaty.

“During his most recent presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his inauguration. In all likelihood, this is yet another example of his consistent practice of vastly overestimating his capacity to achieve change unilaterally and making exaggerated claims that aren’t backed up by analysis or implementable policies.”

But it does raise the question of what he might be willing to give up to Russian President Putin in order to move toward that possibility, she said.

At his press briefing, Blinken also said the United States has been “surging our own resources and security assistance to continue to help build up Ukraine’s air defenses, its artillery, its armored vehicles. We are determined – and it’s fully my intent and the President’s intent – to spend every cent that we have available from the $61 billion that were authorized by Congress in the supplemental appropriation.”

With the G7, we’re finalizing moving out the door $50 billion secured by frozen Russian assets. At the same time, NATO Allies and partners of NATO are sharing the burden and shouldering even more of the responsibility. Germany, for example, just made a pledge of $680 million in new military aid. Bulgaria, Czechia, Sweden, others providing personnel to this new NATO command.

According to the US State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, the heavy flow of US arms to Ukraine include:

• Three Patriot air defense batteries and munitions; • 12 National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions; • HAWK air defense systems and munitions; • AIM-7, RIM-7, and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;

• More than 3,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; • Avenger air defense systems; • VAMPIRE counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) and munitions; • c-UAS gun trucks and ammunition; • Mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems;

• 20 Mi-17 helicopters; • 31 Abrams tanks; • 45 T-72B tanks; • 109 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles; • Over 1,700 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);

• Anti-aircraft guns and ammunition; • Air defense systems components; • Equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine’s systems; • Equipment to support and sustain Ukraine’s existing air defense capabilities; and • 21 air surveillance radars.

Over 8,000 Javelin anti-armor systems; Over 52,000 other anti-armor systems and munitions; • Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems; • 160 155mm Howitzers and over 1,000,000 155mm artillery rounds; • Over 6,000 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;

• Over 10,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems; • 100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition; • 45,000 152mm artillery rounds; • 20,000 122mm artillery rounds; • 50,000 122mm GRAD rockets; • 72 105mm Howitzers and 370,000 105mm artillery rounds; • 298 Tactical Vehicles to tow weapons;

• 34 Tactical Vehicles to recover equipment; • 30 ammunition support vehicles; • 38 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition; • 30 120mm mortar systems and over 175,000 120mm mortar rounds; • 10 82mm mortar systems; • 10 60mm mortar systems; •

And much more.

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A village in the Afungi Peninsula in Palma District, Cabo Delgado Province. Credit: Justiça Ambiental

By Maina Waruru
NAIROBI, Dec 22 2024 (IPS)

Climate and environmental activists from Japan have criticized the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) for financing the controversial Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project to the tune of USD 3 billion in a loan signed in July.

The project has been associated with the displacement of thousands of people and is in violation of Japan’s G7 commitment to end direct public support for overseas fossil fuel projects.

The bank’s action is also projected to have far-reaching effects on climate and the environment, further negatively impacting the livelihoods of communities in the restive Cabo Delgado province in the north of the county, a report says.

Conflict in the region has been linked to insurgency and human rights abuses by the country’s security forces.

In the report “Faces of Impact: How JBIC and Japan’s LNG Financing Harm Communities and the Planet” by Friends of Earth (FOE), Japan activists find that in Mozambique, at least 550 families were displaced for the Rovuma LNG project, exposing them to risk as it is situated in a conflict-torn region and has been linked to human rights abuses of civilians.

The project is further backed by the Japanese bank through a loan of U$536 million to Mitsui, a Japanese corporate group, also one of the owners of the project, and which describes the project as “one of the largest natural gas reserves discovered anywhere in the world in recent years.”

The money will finance the development and production of LNG in a region where thousands of civilians have been displaced by both violence and the gas development activities since 2012, some without compensation for their land.

The LNG project intends to extract 65 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which will be done offshore in the Rovuma Basin and piped to an onshore LNG processing plant on the Afungi Peninsula.

“The project began its onshore construction activities in 2019 but was suspended in 2021 as a result of violent conflict. It has not officially resumed, but some of its activities have been restarted since 2023,” the report explains. The insurgency remains active, and human rights infringements resulting from the project activities remain unresolved, it further cautions.

“The Mozambique LNG project is linked to violent conflict, has resulted in social injustices on Mozambican citizens, and is a potential source of massive carbon emissions. It has already cost the country productive lands, local economies, and valuable natural areas,” it warns.

Should the project proceed as planned and despite becoming the biggest gas project in Africa, it will deliver low revenues to the host country and place the country at risk of liability if it fails, the report opines.

Owned by a consortium of seven companies, including the Mozambique state company Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH). All except ENH control their shares through offshore companies, with TotalEnergies being the majority owner and operator.

It finds that there is a “pattern of harm and destruction” in JBIC-financed gas projects, and communities have conveyed to the bank that it is violating its own “Guidelines for Confirmation of Environmental and Social Considerations.”

According to Kete Fumo of the advocacy group Justiça Ambiental and Friends of Earth Mozambique, the project is indirectly contributing to the insurgency that has plagued the region for years.

“People in at least 17 districts are exposed to terrorist attacks. Some families in Palma district, for example, have been displaced but have not been offered any compensation yet. They had lots of extensive land, but not anymore; they have lost their only source of sustenance,” she said during a webinar to launch the report hosted by FOE Japan.

By 2018, when the census of affected communities in Palma was updated, some 616 families were identified, and another 1,847 families were found to be “economically affected” by the loss of their farmland handed over to the project, added Fumo.

“The environmental issues surrounding the project are already very visible, with accentuated erosion, increased weather events, and the fact that it is considered one of the six carbon bombs in the world, with Mozambique being one of the African countries most vulnerable to climate change,” she told IPS in an interview.

Failure to comply with compensation agreements entered between the affected and TotalEnergies posed a big problem for communities that, due to the lack of land for cultivation, now produce much less food than they did before the project arrived.

This has left them exposed to food insecurity, with fishing communities lacking access to fishing areas contributing to hunger in the villages.

“The insecurity scenario in Palma also makes accessibility to the district deficient, which makes the price of basic necessities more expensive in a community where families’ sources of income have been cut off by the project. People need to reinvent themselves to be able to support their families, but this is a scenario where not everyone has the capacity or conditions to do so,” the activist added.

She called for the abandonment of the project, saying that “not implementing the project and leaving people living in their homes with their livelihoods, culture, and traditions has been the call made by Justica Ambiental since the beginning of this process.”

“In the history of Mozambique and in our experience with mega projects, no resettlement has had positive results. The call continues to be that this project should not be implemented, since even before a drop of gas had been exploited, the impacts were already negatively affecting the communities,” Fumo appealed.

In one of the affected villages of Macala, 50 kilometres off the Indian Ocean coastline, residents claimed they had lost not less than 7,000 hectares of land alienated for LNG exploration and development, with no compensation so far.

One of the victims, Omar Amise, said, “We have received no compensation so far, and our lands have been destroyed by new infrastructure, including roads. Our children are starving because our lands have been taken by roads.”

According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), by January 2024, over 582,000 were still displaced in Cabo Delgado province, due to recurring attacks on civilians and governmental forces by “Non-State Armed Groups” since 2017. The numbers grew to over one million at the height of the conflict in 2021 and 2022, adds the UN agency.

From the end of December 2023, over 8,000 people have also been newly displaced as a result of attacks by insurgents in the province’s Macomia, Mecufi, Metuge, Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe, and Quissanga districts, adds the UNHCR.

An article published in September 2024 by the magazine Politico alleged that a Mozambican army unit operating near the Mozambique LNG project site carried out a series of atrocities, including rape, torture, and the murder or disappearance of at least 97 people.

It claimed that TotalEnergies was aware of the atrocities by the army in the wider area, while it paid a Joint Task Force made up of army soldiers, commandos, and paramilitary police for its LNG site protection.

Back to the FOE report, it claims that since 2016, JBIC has provided a staggering UD18.6 billion to fossil gas expansion—four times more than Japan’s contribution to the Green Climate Fund.

The bank is also blamed for supporting similar fossils energy projects amounting to USD18.5 billion in the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Australia, Vietnam, and the United States

Our enquiries on the claims made by FOE were answered by either the French Energy multinational or JBIC.

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Credit: Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images

By Andrew Firmin
LONDON, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Democracy is alive and well in South Korea. When President Yoon Suk Yeol tried to impose martial law, the public and parliamentarians united to defend it. Now Yoon must face justice for his power grab.

President under pressure

Yoon narrowly won the presidency in an incredibly tight contest in March 2022, beating rival candidate Lee Jae-myung by a 0.73 per cent margin. That marked a political comeback for one of South Korea’s two main political parties, the rebranded centre-right People Power Party, and a defeat for the other, the more progressive Democratic Party.

In a divisive campaign, Yoon capitalised on and helped inflame a backlash among many young men against the country’s emerging feminist movement.

South Korea had a MeToo moment in 2018, as women started to speak out following high-profile sexual harassment revelations. South Korea is one of the worst performing members on gender equality of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development: it ranks third lowest for women’s political representation and last for its gender pay gap.

Some modest steps forward in women’s rights brought a disproportionate backlash. Groups styling themselves as defending men’s rights sprang up, their members claiming they were discriminated against in the job market. Yoon played squarely to this crowd, pledging to abolish the gender equality ministry. Exit polls showed that over half of young male voters backed him.

Human rights conditions then worsened under Yoon’s rule. His administration was responsible for an array of civic space restrictions. These included harassment and criminalisation of journalists, raids on trade union offices and arrests of their leaders, and protest bans. Media freedoms deteriorated, with lawsuits and criminal defamation laws having a chilling effect.

But the balance of power shifted after the 2024 parliamentary election, when the People Power Party suffered a heavy defeat. Although the Democratic Party and its allies fell short of the two-thirds majority required to impeach Yoon, the result left him a lame-duck president. The opposition-dominated parliament blocked key budget proposals and filed 22 impeachment motions against government officials.

Yoon’s popularity plummeted amid ongoing economic woes and allegations of corruption – sadly nothing new for a South Korean leader. The First Lady, Kim Keon Hee, was accused of accepting a Dior bag as a gift and of manipulating stock prices. It seems clear that Yoon, backed into a corner, lashed out and took an incredible gamble – one that South Korean people didn’t accept.

Yoon’s decision

Yoon made his extraordinary announcement on state TV on the evening of 3 December. Shamefully, he claimed the move was necessary to combat ‘pro-North Korean anti-state forces’, smearing those trying to hold him to account as supporters of the totalitarian regime across the border. Yoon ordered the army to arrest key political figures, including the leader of his party, Han Dong Hoon, Democratic Party leader Lee and National Assembly Speaker Woo Won Shik.

The declaration of martial law gives the South Korean president sweeping powers. The military can arrest, detain and punish people without a warrant, the media are placed under strict controls, all political activity is suspended and protests are widely banned.

The problem was that Yoon had clearly exceeded his powers and acted unconstitutionally. Martial law can only be declared when there are extraordinary threats to the nation’s survival, such as invasion or armed rebellion. A series of political disputes that put the president under uncomfortable scrutiny clearly didn’t fit the bill. And the National Assembly was supposed to remain in session, but Yoon tried to shut it down, deploying armed forces to try to stop representatives gathering to vote.

But Yoon hadn’t reckoned with many people’s determination not to return to the dark days of dictatorship before multiparty democracy was established in 1987. People also had recent experience of forcing out an evidently corrupt president. In the Candlelight Revolution of 2016 and 2017, mass weekly protests built pressure on President Park Guen-hye, who was impeached, removed from office and jailed for corruption and abuse of power.

People massed outside the National Assembly in protest. As the army blocked the building’s main gates, politicians climbed over the fences. Protesters and parliamentary staff faced off against heavily armed troops with fire extinguishers, forming a chain around the building so lawmakers could vote. Some 190 made it in, and they unanimously repealed Yoon’s decision.

Time for justice

Now Yoon must face justice. Protesters will continue to urge him to quit, and a criminal investigation into the decision to declare martial law has been launched.

The first attempt to impeach Yoon was thwarted by political manoeuvring. People Power politicians walked out to prevent a vote on 7 December, apparently hoping Yoon would resign instead. But he showed no sign of stepping down, and a second vote on 14 December decisively backed impeachment, with 12 People Power Party members supporting the move. The vote was greeted with scenes of jubilation from the tens of thousands of protesters massed in freezing conditions outside the National Assembly.

Yoon is now suspended, with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo the interim president. The Constitutional Court has six months to hold an impeachment process. Polls show most South Koreans back impeachment, although Yoon still claims his move was necessary.

Democracy defended

South Korea’s representative democracy, like most, has its flaws. People may not always be happy with election results. Presidents may find it hard to work with a parliament that opposes them. But imperfect though it may be, South Koreans have shown they value their democracy and will defend it from the threat of authoritarian rule – and can be expected to keep mobilising if Yoon evades justice.

Thankfully, Yoon’s attacks on civic space hadn’t got to the stage where civil society’s ability to mobilise and people’s capacity to defend democracy had been broken down. Recent events and South Korea’s uncertain future make it all the more important that the civic space restrictions imposed by Yoon’s administration are reversed as quickly as possible. To defend against backsliding and deepen democracy, it’s vital to expand civic space and invest in civil society.

Andrew Firmin is CIVICUS Editor-in-Chief, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

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A young girl trying to cross a flooded road in Bangladesh following the wake of Cyclone Remal. Bangladesh is one of the world’s most climate-sensitive nations and is expected to be significantly impacted by rising global temperatures. Credit: UNICEF/Farhana Satu

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history, surpassing 2023. This can be attributed to heightened reliance on fossil fuels and the reluctance of industries worldwide to pivot to green energy practices. The rapid acceleration of global temperatures has alarmed scientists, with many expressing concern over the environmental, economic, and social implications of the worsening climate crisis.

In light of this fact, ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked: “Humanity’s torching the planet and paying the price.”

In addition to being the hottest year, 2024 is also the first year in recorded history to have an average temperature of over 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. According to data from the European Union’s (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the average temperature for 2024 is expected to be 1.60 C, marking a significant jump from last year’s average of 1.48 C.

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty that has been signed by 196 countries at the UN. The objective of this agreement is to reduce carbon emissions by 43 percent by 2030 and mitigate the climate crisis. Samantha Burgess, the deputy-director of C3S) confirmed that the rising temperatures do not make the Paris Agreement implausible but rather, makes the climate crisis much more urgent of an issue.

According to Oxford Net Zero, a platform of researchers hosted by the University of Oxford, in order to have a reasonable chance of bringing global temperatures back to 1.5 C, fossil fuel emissions must fall by 43 percent. Major corporations and governments around the world have announced plans to reduce carbon emissions to achieve these goals.

Although industries around the world have slowly begun to adopt healthier fossil fuel consumption habits and alternative sources of energy, global consumption of coal has nearly doubled in the past three decades. On December 18, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a comprehensive report titled Coal 2024, that analyzed global consumption of coal in the 2020s and provided a forecast of coal use for the next three years.

The report states that in 2023, the global coal demand reached a record 8,687 metric tons, marking a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase. The global demand for coal is expected to have grown by 1 percent in 2024. The increased demand for coal can be attributed to the relatively low supply of hydropower.

China is ranked as the world’s biggest consumer of coal, accounting for up to 56 percent of 2023’s global coal consumption, equivalent to 4,833 metric tons of coal. It is estimated that in 2024, Chinese coal consumption has increased by 1.1 percent, or an additional 56 metric tons.

Approximately 63 percent of China’s coal consumption is used to fuel the nation’s power sector. Despite a measured global increase in renewable energy use, China’s generation of electricity has declined in recent years.

According to the IEA, fixing the world’s over-reliance on coal consumption begins with China. “Weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori.

Scientists and economists have predicted that the acceleration of the climate crisis will have severe environmental and economic impacts going forward. According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, increased temperatures could cost the global economy approximately 38 trillion dollars in damages. Maximilian Kotz, a researcher at the institute, states that much of these losses can be attributed to decreased agricultural yields and labor productivity, as well as damage to climate-sensitive infrastructures.

2024 has seen a host of climate-driven natural disasters that have devastated communities. Extreme weather, such as cyclones, monsoons, wildfires, heatwaves, hurricanes, and rising sea levels, continue to endanger the lives of millions of people. According to estimates from the UN, approximately 305 million people around the world will be in dire need of humanitarian assistance for support due to worsening natural disasters.

Other environmental impacts of climate change include deforestation, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, water cycle disruptions, and impacts on agricultural outputs, all of which have disastrous consequences for life on Earth. If global temperatures and carbon emissions are not reduced by 2030, these consequences could significantly increase in severity.

Scientists have warned that it is critical for global temperatures to not exceed 2 C. The world would experience widespread species loss, including several species critical for the sustenance of human life, including fish and many species of plants. Alice C. Hill, a Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) senior fellow for energy and the environment, stated, “We’re headed toward disaster if we can’t get our warming in check and we need to do this very quickly.”

Another climate researcher at Potsdam, Anders Levermann, predicts that economic and environmental impacts will be far more severe for developing countries than for major commercial powerhouses such as the United States and China. “We find damages almost everywhere, but countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer,” said Levermann.

Furthermore, the countries that are the least responsible for climate change (developing nations) are expected to suffer the greatest economic and environmental impacts as they have the fewest resources “to adapt to its impacts.”

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Yasmine Sherif with children at a school in Ethiopia

By Yasmine Sherif
NEW YORK, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

As 2024 comes to a close, I dare to say that this has been an especially gruesome year for millions upon millions of young children, their parents and their teachers. The world has witnessed one horrific crisis of cruelty, dispossession and human suffering after another.

Ukraine has entered its worst winter, suffering a brutal war with 65% of its energy supplies destroyed. While the West Bank is increasingly under attack, Gaza is still under bombardment, 1 million Palestinians lack shelter in the cold and, as the Under-Secretary-General and Emergency Relief Coordinator for OCHA, Tom Fletcher, stated, “Gaza is apocalyptic right now.”

Meanwhile, the gruesome internal armed conflict in Sudan rages on, having caused over 11 million internally displaced and over 3 million refugees in neighboring countries. Each carries the yoke of profound human suffering. From Lebanon, Yemen and the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh to the Sahel and across sub-Saharan Africa, millions of children have very little hope left for a future.

Girls in Afghanistan beyond grade 6 remain shackled to their homes, banned from continuing their learning. Countless children have to live with the life-long consequences of surviving rape and brutal sexual violence – sometimes as mere babies – in armed conflicts in the DRC, North-East Nigeria and beyond. In the Sahel, children have to flee their villages on fire with nothing more than their last piece of cloth on their frail bodies. In Latin America, Venezuelan refugee children continue to struggle in exile, facing dangers in every corner, from trafficking and gangs, to missing out on the opportunity of an education and a future.

These are real examples of some of the 44 countries and contexts in which ECW invests financial resources towards a holistic quality education, safe learning environments and school meals.

The question is: are we all doing enough?

As many will know, Education Cannot Wait is a global platform in the UN system, hosted by UNICEF. It is made up of our High-Level Steering Group, our Executive Committee and our Secretariat, along with strategic public and private donor partners, Ministers of Education and numerous admirable and hard-working UN and civil society partners, as well as communities.

ECW is able to deliver with speed because it is a catalyst that brings together partners who operate with the same level of commitment, energy and determination. We are also able to deliver with depth and quality because we share the same vision of a child-centered approach and learning outcomes.

In the midst of this very dark year, Education Cannot Wat delivered on its mission, making more than US$228 million in investments, including US$44 million in First Emergency Responses, US$176 million in Multi-Year Resilience Programmes and US$8 million in Acceleration Facility grants – the latter for piloting innovative approaches.

Our funding gap was further closed as we reached nearly US$1 billion in financial resources for our 2023-2026 Strategic Plan. But more resources are urgently needed if we are to cater to the actual needs and reach, at minimum, 20 million children (pre-school, primary and secondary) and their teachers by the end of this strategic period.

With an additional US$570 million, we can completely close this gap. It is possible. When annual military expenditures worldwide stand at US$2.4 trillion, there is no justification whatsoever to fail in investing a minimum of US$570 million for Education Cannot Wait to support lifesaving and life-sustaining education for children enduring the brunt of man-made and climate crises; as well as to invest substantive financial resources to our sister-funds, such as the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) and the International Finance Facility for Education (IFFEd).

As our ongoing analysis and research at Education Cannot Wait indicates, the number of children in emergencies and protracted crises – who are denied or deprived an education – is getting closer to a quarter of a billion children and adolescents. We can prevent this.

While we are all trying to do something, we can and must do so much more. It is possible.

This leads me to the founder and outgoing High-Level Steering Group Chair of Education Cannot Wait, The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown, the UN Special Envoy for Global Education. He had a vision that led to the creation of Education Cannot Wait. Joined by strategic partners in governments, the UN and civil society, he pulled through its establishment at the World Humanitarian Summit.

In just a few years, this vision has turned into over 11 million children, adolescents and teachers benefitting from a quality education in the harshest circumstances around the globe.

In the immortal words of Viktor Frankl: “The world is in a bad state, but everything will become still worse unless each of us does his [and her] best.”

The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown did his best and has made an incredible difference transforming millions of lives and generations to come.

Let his legacy inspire us all.

With this, on behalf of the whole Education Cannot Wait family, I wish you Happy Holidays. May 2025 be a brighter year.

Yasmine Sherif is Executive Director of Education Cannot Wait

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The IOM estimates that one billion people live without legal identity, limiting their access to vital services and restricting their mobility. Credit: Shutterstock

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Perhaps demographers would consider designing a new classification system to separate from their estimates of the world’s total population –eight billion plus– the billion humans who live without legal identity and, thus, are deprived from the most basic rights.

The one billion figure seems to fall short if you consider that there are at least 150 million unregistered births.

The Facts

The United Nations specialised body: the International Organization for Migration (IOM) informs that “one in eight people in the world do not have legal identity and cannot have access to services.”

Today, one billion people do not have proof of legal identity hampering their access to social services, taxes, voting, a bank account, and driving irregular migration
Jens Godtfredsen

Specifically, the IOM reveals that “an estimated one billion people are living without legal identity and remain invisible to states, limiting their access to services and restricting their mobility, pushing them to undertake longer, more perilous, irregular routes.”

In view of this finding, the IOM brought together government representatives from Europe, Africa, Middle East and Central America for the Legal Identity and Rights-Based Return Management Conference at the UN City in Copenhagen.

The conference, held at the end of last October, convened government officials from countries of origin and destination and served to promote cross-regional exchanges on legal identity as a core enabler of safer and regular migration.

No Human Rights for Them

On this, Jens Godtfredsen, Ambassador for Migration, Return and Readmission at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, said during the conference that “today, one billion people do not have proof of legal identity hampering their access to social services, taxes, voting, a bank account, and driving irregular migration.”

That’s why it’s critical to come together to discuss concrete solutions to migration challenges, such as the global identity gap, by adopting a whole of government approach, stressed the Danish Government’s representative.

During this international conference, the Governments recognised that readmission processes for migrants are often “hindered by obstacles that can be eliminated or reduced by strengthening a state’s legal identity capacity, consular support, and collaboration among relevant government agencies.”

A Persistent Crisis

Despite these discussions, the grim reality persists. Rather, it is one continuous rise if you take the other dramatic fate of the millions of babies and children that are also ‘inexistente’

A 10 December 2024 report from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reveals significant progress in ending the problem of the “invisible” millions of babies each year who go unregistered.

Nearly eight in 10 children under five were successfully registered at birth in the last five years.

However, the report, The Right Start in Life: Global Levels and Trends in Birth Registration, also highlights a troubling reality: 150 million children under five still go unregistered, meaning they don’t officially exist as far as government systems.

According to UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, it is crucial that we provide “stronger efforts to ensure that every child, everywhere, is registered at birth.”

Beyond Formality: Why Birth Registration Matters

Birth registration is more than a legal formality – it is the gateway to rights and protections. It ensures a child’s legal identity, prevents statelessness, and facilitates access to essential services like healthcare, education, and social protection.

“Yet over 50 million children with registered births still lack birth certificates, a critical document for proving registration and securing nationality.”

Africa leads the disparities

Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, and Central and Southern Asia lead the way with less than 30 percent of unregistered births.

Lagging is Sub-Saharan Africa home to half of the world’s unregistered children.

Within this region, the disparities are stark: Southern Africa reaches 88 per cent of registrations while Eastern and Middle Africa remain behind at just 41 per cent.

“Rapid population growth in the region will exacerbate the challenge, with projections suggesting over 100 million unregistered children by 2030 if current trends persist.”

Barriers to Registration

Families face numerous barriers to registration, UNICEF explains.

They often mention long distances and multiple visits to registration facilities, a lack of awareness about the process and discrimination based on gender, ethnicity, or religion. High costs also cause recurrent issues.

Stateless and Displaced: The Unseen Millions

Add to all the above, the millions of statelessness who are forced to flee to nowhere as a consequence of the ongoing armed conflicts taking place in some of the most impoverished countries as it is the case of DR. Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Chad, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Yemen, Haiti, Central America…

Let alone Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria.

Please do not forget the millions of victims of the climate carnage who are forced to be displaced across borders they most probably know nothing about, and as such pariahs are not formally recognised by states.

Still talking about human rights, democracy, equality…?

Maria Aparecida dos Anjos points to where the stream, now reduced to a trickle of water, reaches when flooded in the community of Santa Helena do Inglês, one of the riverside towns along the Rio Negro, a large tributary of the Amazon, in Brazil

By Mario Osava
MANAUS, Brazil, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The flow of the igarapé always dropped for three months every year, but now it has been dry for two years in a row, complains Maria Aparecida dos Anjos, looking at the trickle of water that when flooded reaches the stilts of her wooden house, 50 metres away and on a slope of more than 10 metres high.

The stream, known as igarapé to the riverside dwellers, flows into the Negro river, the great northern tributary of the Amazon, whose flow has dropped by more than 15 metres compared to the rainy season, affecting the essential river transport and the fish-based diet of the local population.

The unprecedented drought temporarily interrupted the growing bonanza of the 30 families of the Santa Helena do Inglês community since they received electricity from the government’s Light for All programme in 2012, reinforced in 2020 by solar energy provided by the non-governmental  Sustainable Amazon Foundation (FAS).“Energy is life, or perhaps the river is life, but without energy it doesn't work”: Nelson Brito de Mendonça.

The Vista Rio Negro community lodge, with eight rooms, has had to suspend its activities since August this year because of the drought. Ecotourism is an important source of income for the community near Anavilhanas, an attractive river archipelago.

Half of the lodge’s income is share among the community, while the rest goes to salaries, expenses and maintenance.

The guests would spread the word on “the suffering to get to the lodge”, having to walk hundreds of metres on uneven ground and mud, given the distance from the riverbank, and “no one would come anymore”, explained Nelson Brito de Mendonça, 48 and president of the community for the last 22 years, when IPS visited the place.

Berth at the Santa Helena do Inglês lodge, where the Negro River flows during the rainy season in the Brazilian Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Communities only accessible by river

Santa Helena is only accessible by river. It takes an hour and a half by speedboat to travel the 64-kilometre distance between the community and Manaus, the Amazonian capital of 2.2 million people. The “Englishman’s” addition comes from a British couple who lived there in the past.

“The inn used to receive occasional guests during the dry period, but it only closed completely in 2023 and 2004,” the two years of severe drought, said Keith-Ivan Oliveira, 54 and manager of the establishment, located at the entrance to the community, with a berth where the water comes in, but now hundreds of metres from the river.

He hopes to reopen the inn in January. For that “the water has to rise a lot, otherwise the big boats can’t reach it,” because of the risk of getting stuck on the sandbanks, he said.

Ecotourism, also practised by several local families in their small individual dwellings, was only made viable by electricity, especially from solar energy, which complemented the energy transmitted by cables, which was insufficient and frequently interrupted by trees blown down by rain and winds.

Air conditioning, indispensable for tourist comfort in the Amazonian heat, takes a lot of energy.

The Pousada Vista Rio de Negro, opened in 2014 as a source of income for the Santa Helena do Inglês community, home to 30 families of fisherpeople, cassava farmers and artisans in the Brazilian Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

No power, no water, no food

“Other communities suffer water shortages, but we don’t because we have two sources of energy, the cable network and solar power. If there is no electricity, there is no water, which is then pumped,” Oliveira said.

Santa Helena uses water from an 86-metre deep well that reaches three elevated reservoirs in the highest part of the community. From there, the water drains by gravity to the consumption premises.

For Dos Anjos, who is 59 and heads a typical local family with eight children and six grandchildren, most of them living in Santa Helena, electricity means the comfort of having a refrigerator and not having to keep meat in salt, as well as fans to keep out the heat, television and other electrical appliances.

Lucilene Ferreira de Oliveira, 39, who also has eight children, benefits doubly. She is a cook at the inn, which earns her about 700 reais (US$120) a month when it is open, and she prepares ready-made food at home that she sells in the community. The refrigerator and electric oven are indispensable to her.

Keith-Ivan Oliveira, manager of the Pousada Vista Rio Negro, at the entrance of the ice factory under construction, which will have its own solar energy. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

She highlights the educational improvement for the children. “The school now has air conditioning, which is turned on when it is very hot, a benefit for everyone,” she said.

The electricity also favoured the internet connection that allows for virtual classes, which is necessary since the local school only covers the first five years of Brazilian primary education.

Elizabeth Ferreira da Silva, 16, a granddaughter of Dos Anjos, is completing her ninth and final year of primary school online. The knowledge she has accumulated on the web has facilitated the work she does with the inn’s communications, which is essential in attracting tourists from far away, including foreigners.

The community actually tried solar energy before, in 2011, but it was a very small plant that was soon rendered useless by lightning. Now it has a modern plant with 132 panels and 54 lithium batteries, installed by UCB Power, a company specialising in energy storage, which is sharing the project with FAS.

The solar panels of the plant that will supply the ice factory in the Amazonian community of Santa Helena do Inglês, in the Brazilian state of Amazonas. It will produce three tonnes per day. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Ice empowers fishing

In addition, Santa Helena already has another plant, with 84 panels, for the operation of an ice factory that is expected to be launched in a few months, with a capacity of three tonnes per day.

This is another project promoted by the FAS and vital to enhance the income of the Amazonian coastal villages, fisherpeople by nature.

“With our ice, we will no longer have to buy it in Manaus, to preserve the fish and sell it at a better price,” Mendonça celebrated. The inhabitants often lose their fish for lack of ice and “already had to give it for free to the trading companies,” he said.

“Energy is life, or perhaps the river is life, but without energy it doesn’t work,” he said, admitting that the ice factory only came about because the community managed to get help for the second solar plant.

The network of electricity distribution cables reached the Brazilian Amazonian community of Santa Helena in 2012, but with insufficient power and frequent interruptions. Solar plants installed later overcame the shortfall, but encourage activities that increase demand and require more energy. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

The river dwellers are gaining independence as fisherpeople and reducing their conservation and transport costs, which results in higher profits and better productivity and quality of the fish, Oliveira summarised.

This process points to the beginning of transformations in Santa Helena and the other 18 communities of the Rio Negro Sustainable Development Reserve (RDS), an environmental conservation area of 103,086 hectares in which its inhabitants remain, taking advantage of their natural resources but in a sustainable way.

The reserve was created in 2008 after eleven dwellers were arrested for illegal logging and sparked a movement for traditional peoples’ rights, sources of income and dignified livelihoods.

Negotiations with the Amazonas state authorities in the capital Manaus resulted in the creation of the RDS. As a result, the inhabitants of the reserve gained the exclusive right to fish in the local section of the Negro River and the departure of the companies that carried out industrial and predatory fishing.

The riverside dwellers became fisherpeople on a commercial scale and today have 13 boats, almost all of them with a capacity of five tons of fish. The ice factory has taken activity to a new level, even if the drought temporarily threatens the activity.

Timber extraction is limited to personal use and sustainably managed forests. Fishing, ecotourism and the cultivation of cassava (manioc), from which flour is made in the various “flour houses”, are the main sources of income.

Lucilene Ferreira de Oliveira, the inn’s cook, also produces meals for sale at her home, an activity that requires sufficient energy for her refrigerators and electric oven, in the small community of Santa Helena do Inglês, in Brazil’s northeastern Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

An example

This is a model to be replicated in the many Amazonian riverside communities, according to Valcleia dos Santos Lima, manager of sustainable community development at FAS.

The community of Bauana, in the municipality of Carauari, in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon, has already installed a plant with 80 photovoltaic panels and 32 batteries. In this case, the idea was to launch “a productive chain of factories that benefit from andiroba and murumuru oil,” this graduate in public policy management told IPS.

These are two Amazonian species, respectively a tree and a palm tree (Carapa guianensis and astrocaryum murumuru) whose fruits produce oils for medicinal and cosmetic use.

Energy is key for Amazonians to thrive, to add value to bio-economy products and to promote community-based tourism. In addition, almost one million inhabitants of the Amazon do not have electricity and 313 of the 582 communities in which the FAS operates only have it for four hours a day, Lima recalled.

“In this context, it is important that renewable energy can meet social demands as well as the demands of the economy and employment,” she concluded.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres briefs reporters on the situation in Syria. Credit: UN Photo/Eskinder-Debebe

By Naureen Hossain
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

In overthrowing Bashar al-Assad and his regime, Syria reaches the process of re-affirming its sovereignty, a process that the United Nations chief asserts must be led by the Syrian people.

On Thursday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres spoke to reporters outside the Security Council, where he affirmed the UN’s commitment to support Syria during this period of transition. Under the caretaker government, the political process should follow the principles outlined in Security Council resolution 2254, which provides a roadmap for this transition and calls for a ceasefire, the establishment of non-sectarian governance, and free and fair elections to be held within 18 months.

“All communities must be fully integrated into the new Syria,” said Guterres.

The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, was in Damascus meeting with the leaders of the factions in Syria, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), where he observed that there was “a lot of hope” among civilians for “the beginning of a new Syria.”

“A new Syria that, in line with Security Council resolution 2254, will adopt a new constitution that will ensure that there is a social contract, a new social contract for all Syrians,” said Pederson.

Pressing issues remain that require urgent action. One such issue is the high number of missing persons in Syria. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Syria reported registering over 35,000 missing persons cases, with the caveat that this number is likely much higher.

In light of this, the UN General Assembly created the Independent Institution on Missing Persons in Syria. Since its conception in June 2023, this office has been investigating the whereabouts and fates of missing persons in the country and to provide support to their family members.

UN Spokesperson for the Secretary General, Stéphane Dujarric, remarked that the issue of missing persons has been a part of the ongoing dialogue with the caretaker government. “It is such an emotional issue. Such a human issue that it should be at the forefront of everyone’s work,” said Dujarric.

Guterres announced on Thursday that Karla Quintana would be heading the institution, remarking that she and her team must be allowed to carry out their mandate. A human rights expert and legal scholar, Quintana was previously the National Commissioner for the Search of Missing Persons in Mexico from 2019 to 2023. During her tenure, she oversaw over 100,000 cases of disappearances and 70,000 unidentified bodies. She is expected to join the institution soon in Geneva, where their office is based.

The humanitarian response in Syria will also adapt during the “still rapidly shifting” conditions in the wake of the regime change. The UN and its partners have begun the rehabilitation of certain key facilities, such as hospitals and roads, in the more stable areas. Still, over 16 million people require humanitarian support. Even as humanitarian actors respond to pressing needs, issues emerge that present challenges to long-term stability. According to Dujarric, more than 1.3 million people have received food assistance since November 27. Yet, the “rapid devaluation” of Syrian currency has been impacting the availability of food.

“We need immediate humanitarian assistance, but we also need to make sure that Syria can be rebuilt, that we can see economic recovery and that we can hopefully see the beginning where we start the process to end sanctions,” said Pederson.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has called for donors to increase their funding for the humanitarian and recovery response plan. The Humanitarian Response Plan for Syria in 2024 called for USD 4.07 billion in funding, yet this has only been funded at 32 percent. The humanitarian plan for 2025 has yet to be announced.

There are also reports of hostilities in the northeast, even as the security situation is stabilizing in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo. Guterres remarked that ISIL continues to be a present threat in the country and that Israeli airstrikes have been recurring in the weeks since Assad’s departure. These attacks violate Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and they must come to an immediate end, he warned.

“This is a decisive moment—a moment of hope and history, but also one of great uncertainty,” he said. “Some will try to exploit the situation for their own narrow ends. But it is the obligation of the international community to stand with the people of Syria who have suffered so much.”

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A piece from Emo de Medeiros’s series Vodunaut in the “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” exhibit in La Conciergerie in Paris, France. The smartphones within the cowry shell-decorated helmets feature videos taken on four different continents. Credit: Megan Fahrney/IPS

By Megan Fahrney
COTONOU, Benin, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Construction of the new Museum of Modern Art is underway in Cotonou, Benin’s largest city. The museum, along with three others being built throughout the country, are part of the Beninese government’s extensive plan to ramp up the nation’s tourism industry and preserve its culture. It is expected to open at the end of 2026.

A traveling exhibition entitled “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” serves as the precursor to the new modern art museum. Originally, the exhibition launched in Cotonou in 2022 under the name “Art of Benin From Yesterday and Today: From Restitution to Revelation.” It then traveled to Morocco, Martinique, and it is now in Paris.

At the heart of the initiatives is the repatriation of 26 pieces of stolen art to Benin from France in 2021. The returned royal artefacts were showcased alongside the contemporary art in the original exhibition in Cotonou, and they have remained in the nation’s reserves since.

The exhibition brings together over one hundred pieces of art by 42 artists from Benin and the Beninese diaspora.

Yassine Lassissi, director of visual arts at the Agency for the Development of the Arts and Culture (ADAC), said the exhibit unites works from both distinguished, well-known Beninese artists and emerging young creators.

The featured pieces represent a range of different forms and artistic mediums, Lassissi said.

“There is really a diversity of techniques,” said Lassissi. “We have paintings, sculptures, installations, multimedia techniques, drawings, and photography.”

Artist Emo de Medeiros showcases two works in the exhibition: a series of fixtures entitled Vodunaut and a short film by the name “Tigritude I.”

De Medeiros said “Tigritude I” was inspired by a quote by Nigerian activist and author Wole Soyinka, who said, “A tiger doesn’t proclaim his tigritude, he pounces.” De Medeiros explores the role of the African diaspora in uniting technology and spirituality through the piece.

“It features an alternative past,” said de Medeiros. “An alternative futurism that is very dystopic with the intervention of futuristic tigers.”

Upon the return of the exhibition to Cotonou from Paris this January, Lassissi said she hopes the artwork can continue to travel to new destinations until the opening of the museum in 2026, including potentially to the United States.

While in Cotonou, the exhibition drew more than 220,000 visitors in just sixty days of opening.

“It was really a historic event,” Lassissi said.

In addition to the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou, Benin is constructing the International Museum of Memory and Slavery in Ouidah, the Museum of the Epic of the Amazons and Kings of Dahomey in Abomey, and the International Museum of Arts and Civilizations of Vodun in Porto-Novo.

The majority of contemporary art pieces from the traveling exhibition will be housed in the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou. The 26 returned royal artefacts will be displayed in the new museum in Abomey.

The government plans to situate the Museum of Modern Art within an entirely new Cultural and Creative Neighborhood, which would also consist of the Franco-Beninese Institute, coworking spaces, the Art Gallery, the artisanal village, and artists’ residences.

The nation hopes the museums will strengthen its culture and tourism industry, which it projects to be the second pillar of its economy after agriculture.

De Medeiros said he believes Cotonou had been “sorely missing” a contemporary art museum.

“This was something that was necessary,” said de Medeiros. “I think this definitely should be a platform [where] Beninese artists can showcase their work to the world.”

Note: Megan Fahrney is a U.S. Fulbright fellow. The views expressed are solely the author’s and do not represent the views of the United States government.

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Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. Credit: UNDP

By Javier Bronfman
SANTIAGO, Chile, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

As many middle-income countries in the world, Chile finds itself at a critical juncture. The country has made significant progress over the past decades in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction, yet many structural challenges remain.

The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report highlights some of the most pressing issues facing the country today, answering a fundamental question: Why is it so hard to change? At the core of this question are institutional, cultural, and socio-economic factors that have made meaningful reforms difficult to implement.

Below, some important insights coming out of the report.

Institutional Difficulties

Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. The report emphasizes how the institutional structure of the country, and especially how the political parties and electoral system fosters a culture of revenge that promoted a constant blocking of the needed legislation and reforms.

Chile’s political system, characterized by a multi-party system with highly polarized factions, has increasing struggles to find common ground and reach agreements. Legislative deadlock arises when parties fail to collaborate, leading to stalled policies.

This institutional impasse is exacerbated by the requirement for supermajorities to pass key reforms, especially constitutional amendments, making it extremely challenging to address deep-rooted issues education, pension reform, or healthcare access.

Even though there is agreement on what reforms are needed, we observe a prevailing culture of revenge that ends up blocking most policy reform effort. Political discourse has become increasingly adversarial, making cooperation across political divides nearly impossible.

Instead of focusing on policy issues, political energy is often spent on character attacks and undermining the opposition. As a result, the public grows increasingly cynical, and trust in the political process erodes.

The inability to foster a culture of dialogue and mutual respect between political actors prevents any meaningful long-term change. Politicians are locked into short-term battles that perpetuate a cycle of revenge, further polarizing society and making structural reforms even harder to achieve, while people wait for things to change.

Difficulties in reconciling growth and inequality: a lack of Future Perspectives

The report also identifies a growing crisis of the future, a deep sense among many Chileans, particularly the youth, that the future is uncertain and precarious.

This “crisis of the future” is characterized by a lack of clear opportunities for advancement, whether in terms of social mobility, career prospects, or general quality of life.

In a society where inequality persists, many young people feel that the traditional paths to success, such as education and employment, no longer guarantee a better future. The rising cost of living, combined with the difficulty of finding secure, well-paying jobs, contributes to a sense of hopelessness.

This crisis is not just economic; it is also emotional and psychological, as more Chileans feel disconnected from the idea of progress and personal development.

This feeling of a “lost future” is also compounded by the existential threat of climate change, which is hitting Chile particularly hard. From severe droughts to devastating wildfires, the environmental crises further erode any sense of stability, reinforcing the feeling that the future is uncertain and full of risk.

A path forward

The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report offers a sobering analysis of why change is so hard in Chile today. Institutional blockages, a culture of retaliation in politics, social inequality, and a pervasive crisis of future perspectives all converge to create a challenging landscape for reform.

Yet, despite these difficulties, the report also points to the potential for new paths forward. Building a more inclusive, forward-looking society requires a shift in political culture, one, as well as economic models that prioritize equality and sustainability.

The challenges are daunting, but they are not insurmountable. By fostering greater political cooperation, addressing institutional inefficiencies, and creating a shared vision of a more equitable future, Chile has the opportunity to break through these barriers.

This will only be possible if the current political and electoral system are reformed towards one that fosters dialogue and long-term compromises. Fortunately, most political sectors agree on those needed reforms, will they be able to come to a national agreement, remains to be seen.

Javier Bronfman is Regional Adviser on SDG Integration

Source: UNDP

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Credit: Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNOHCR)

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The United States, long described as a country built largely by immigrants, is planning to clamp down on migrants, refugees and asylum seekers entering the country—which averaged about 2.4 million in 2022-2023, according to the US Congressional Budget Office.

The incoming Trump administration is calling for “mass deportations” of mostly illegal aliens and undocumented workers.

As he plans to continue his hardline on migration policies, President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office a second time beginning January 20, has also pledged to end birthright citizenship for children born in the United States—which is guaranteed by the 14th amendment of the US constitution.

Trump has also warned Canada and Mexico that he will penalize both countries by imposing 25 percent tariffs on goods– unless they restrict the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs into the US.

During his last presidency (2017-2021), Trump triggered a global backlash when he singled out both Haiti and African nations as “shithole countries” eliciting protests from the 55-member African Union (AU). Trump also came under fire for his insulting statements that “all Haitians have AIDS” and Nigerians who visit the US “would never go back to their huts.”

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the good news is the toppling of the authoritarian Bashar administration in Syria. But the bad news is that millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey (estimated at more than three million) may be forced to return to Syria. So will Syrian refugees in Germany.

In a report December 14, the New York Times said no other European nation has welcomed as many Syrian refugees as Germany.

While more than 100,000 are now German citizens, the influx is blamed for helping to fuel the rise of the xenophobic far-right political party, Alternative for Germany, which routinely denigrates single young men from Syria and Afghanistan, the Times said.

The rising number of refugees and asylum seekers in the US have been triggered by a surge in political violence and authoritarianism in Venezuela and gang violence in Haiti.

Joseph Chamie, a consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division, told IPS the world is in the midst of the Great Migration Clash, which is a bitter struggle between those who “want out” of their countries and those who want others to “keep out” of their countries.

More than a billion people would like to move permanently to another country and no less than a billion people say fewer or no immigrants should be allowed to move into their countries, he pointed out.

“Powerful forces, including demographics, climate change, poverty, hunger, violence and armed conflict, are continuing to fuel the worldwide migration struggle. The supply of potential migrants in developing countries greatly exceeds the demand for migrants in developed countries”.

Increasing numbers of men, women and children who want out of their countries are resorting to irregular migration with many upon arrival claiming asylum, he said.

“The populations with the largest percentages wanting to emigrate are generally found in poor and violence ridden countries. In many of those nations, half or more of the populations say they would like to migrate permanently to another country, typically to Europe and North America”, said Chamie, author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

According to Cable News Network (CNN) December 19, President-elect Donald Trump’s “border czar” Tom Homan said plans are underway to deport undocumented immigrants on a large scale and that he’ll need funding from Congress to do so.

In a CNN interview, Homan said he will need a minimum of 100,000 beds to detain undocumented immigrants — more than doubling the 40,000 detention beds ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is currently funded for — and needs more ICE agents to carry out Trump’s mass deportation promises.

Homan also said the incoming administration plans to construct new deportation facilities in large metropolitan areas and bring back mass worksite immigration raids — a potentially significant development for some industries that rely on undocumented immigrants’ labor.

At a press conference outside the US Capitol last year, Congresswoman Yvette D. Clarke (NY-09) joined New York City Public Advocate Jumaane D. Williams, members of New York’s Congressional delegation, and immigration activists, to call for federal action on an agenda to address the immediate asylum seeker crisis as well as reform immigration policy infrastructure for the long-term.

“We live in a country where everyone’s family has, at some point, chosen to come to these shores seeking freedom or a better life. That’s why we hear American politicians, and even Americans themselves, love to call themselves “a nation of immigrants”.

“It’s been nearly 250 years since the founding of our nation, and still, America has managed to maintain that self-image – whether through the forced migration of millions of African slaves, restrictive immigration laws based on unjust fears of “inferior” races, and nativist movements that encouraged immigrants to assimilate or leave”.

But the true reality of America’s immigrant heritage is much more complicated beyond myth, she said.

As a senior member of the House Homeland Security Committee, Co-Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus Foreign Affairs and Immigration Task Force, and founding co-chair of the House Caribbean and House Haiti Caucuses, “I have seen the glaring inequities and civil rights violations plaguing our immigrants in this nation”.

“Let me be very clear: Our immigration system is broken, and I will not relent until our immigration system reflects a modern and equitable approach to this issue. The time has come for the values of our nation to be reflected in our immigration policies.”

“We need innovative policies and community support to reimagine the immigration system in a humane, just, and fair manner. I’m proud to stand here with my colleagues to demand additional federal aid to address the asylum seeker crisis.

“They came here fleeing everything from political and economic conflict to natural disasters and health crises. They came seeking a better life. They came and made this nation a better and more prosperous place. We are a nation of immigrants, founded by immigrants, so we must do better for our immigrants”, Clarke said.

In contrast to migrant-origin countries, Chamie said, life in the migrant-destination countries is a comparative dreamland, offering a wide array of opportunities, freedoms, rights, safeguards and security for migrants and their children.

The Great Migration Clash is complicated by the asymmetry of migration-related human rights. While everyone has the basic human right to leave their country and return, they do not have the right to enter another country, he pointed out.

Opposition to immigration is reflected in the rise of xenophobia, racism, hostility and violence toward immigrants. Far-right political leaders often depict migrants, refugees and asylum seekers as invaders, infiltrators, criminals, rapists and terrorists, and call for them to go home and to be deported.

The United Nations, the international agencies and governments, especially in destination countries, have been largely ineffective in addressing the Great Migration Clash, which is expected to continue throughout the 21st century, warned Chamie.

Speaking on International Migrants Day December 18, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “this is a day to remind ourselves of the challenges migrants can face — from prejudice and discrimination to outright violence and abuse, and the unimaginable cruelty of human trafficking”.

And, in a joint call to action, the UN Refugee Agency, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and the UN Special Rapporteurs on Trafficking in Persons, alongside humanitarian organizations, called on States to protect refugees and migrants in distress-at-sea.

“The call is prompted by the rising casualties that we often talk about here. Each year, thousands of refugees and migrants risk deadly journeys in desperate attempts to escape violence, persecution, and poverty,” said Guterres.

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Credit: Masson/shutterstock.com

By Herbert Wulf
DUISBURG, Germany, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

Donald Trump, president-elect of the USA, wants to end the Ukraine war within a day, as he has emphasized several times, but without saying how. Despite the brutal clashes on the ground in Ukraine, do negotiations now have a chance? Are we near to a “ripe moment” for negotiations?

The war continues unabated. There is no end in sight. Can we hope that Donald Trump will find a personal connection to Vladimir Putin to end this war? The phone call on 15 November between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Putin – the first telephone contact in two years – was sobering because Putin only reaffirmed his already known positions: He is ready for negotiations, but only on his terms. In other words, recognition of the “new territorial realities” and “consideration of Russian security interests”. In concrete terms, this would mean the handover of the four regions in eastern Ukraine, parts of which are occupied by Russia, and Crimea. Scholz called for negotiations with the aim of a “just and lasting peace”, which is primarily aimed at the withdrawal of Russian troops.

The Russian attack and Ukrainian defence have turned into a war of exhaustion, with current military advantages for Russia. The Russian strategy can be described as an escalation with the hope of a military victory. So far, Ukraine and its supporters have reacted with intense resistance. Western support has escalated with the delivery of more effective weapons and belief that victory is still possible. But increasingly a certain fatigue can be felt among them and Trump has made it clear that the massive support will no longer come from the USA.

What is the consequence for the Ukraine war, and what is the alternative to this battle with more and more deaths? Negotiations now? Is there a chance for peace without military victory? But neither side is ready yet for serious negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky was not happy about Scholz’s initiative and spoke of a policy of appeasement, also because the call counteracts Putin’s international isolation.

The American political scientist William Zartman speaks of the necessary “ripeness” of a conflict as a prerequisite for the success of negotiations. The concept of “ripe moments” centres, according to Zartman, on the adversaries’ perceptions of “hurting stalemates”. The willingness to negotiate increases when both sides realize that a military victory is not possible and that the military potential, i.e. soldiers and weapons, is no longer sufficient. The depressing conclusion is that today, even after almost 1,000 days of war, this situation does not exist in Russia or Ukraine. But the increasing logistical bottlenecks on both sides, the irreplaceable, irrecoverable and permanent losses are perhaps an indication that the conflict is in a process of maturing for negotiations. Even Russia, with its present territorial advances, seems not able to replace its casualties. The arrival of about 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia raises the question of whether the Kremlin can make up for its enormous losses.

Different scenarios

Four scenarios are conceivable, all of which are far from an ideal solution.

First, it is not inconceivable that the war, which has now lasted almost three years, with all its destruction and loss of life, will continue for another few years without an end in sight.

Second, Donald Trump could actually strike a deal with Vladimir Putin, presumably at the expense of Ukraine. Trump believes in deals. Russia would receive the parts of Ukraine it occupies, a demilitarized zone would be established along this border within Ukraine, Ukraine would receive security guarantees (from NATO, the United Nations, or a grouping of neutral states), and a peace treaty would be postponed until later. And “later” could mean decades without a peace treaty.

Third, one side could win militarily. Unlikely, but not completely out of the question. The Kremlin firmly believes in this possibility and is assured by its territorial gains in recent weeks. At the same time, the Russian leadership underestimated Ukraine’s will to resist at the beginning of the full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and then had to significantly limit its war goals, the overthrow of the government in Kyiv and the integration of Ukraine into the Russian Federation.

The fourth scenario, a ceasefire and a frozen conflict. There are a number of conflicts that are in this state of having no real solution. In recent years, the situation in Korea has been referred to several times in order to consider a similar solution to the Ukraine war. This scenario is perhaps the most likely.

Ceasefire and a frozen conflict: The Korean solution

Of course, every conflict is different, and the respective conditions also differ. Nevertheless, there might be both conflict patterns and patterns of conflict resolution that could provide clues to Ukraine’s future. Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the US, pointed out parallels to the Korean War in an op-ed in the New York Times after a year of the Ukraine war. More than 70 years ago, in July 1953, an armistice agreement and the establishment of a demilitarized zone led to the freezing of this war and the division of Korea into two separate states.

Recently, Joseph S. Nye, one of the most influential political scientists in the USA, pointed to a “Korean solution” in an article entitled “What Would Victory in Ukraine Look Like?”. He writes: “If Ukraine defines victory as the return of all land that Russia has occupied since 2014, victory is not in sight. But if it aims to maintain its independence as a prosperous democracy linked to Europe, while reserving its right to the ultimate return of its territory, victory remains possible.” The Korean War also swayed back and forth from 1950 to 1953. Like what is happening now in Ukraine, neither the north nor the south, nor their respective supporters, were prepared to end the war quickly because of hopes of a military victory. The Korean armistice agreement of July 1953 stipulated the status quo ante with the division of the country at the 38th parallel. Korea is still a divided country, and the conflict is a frozen one. A peace treaty was never concluded and the so-called demilitarized zone along the border between the two states is one of the most militarized borders in the world. A permanent ceasefire was reached without a peace agreement.

Proponents of a “Korean solution” point out that the destruction and loss of life has ended, and that South Korea has now become a resilient democracy and emerging economic power. Democratic development and integration in Western Europe could then follow in the same way in Ukraine.

Critics of such a solution describe the Korean ceasefire as a “non-solution”. The Swiss historian Roland Popp, who researches at the Military Academy of the University ETH Zurich, writes that this Korean solution “also covers four decades of one of the most brutal dictatorships in the world, massacres of tens of thousands of civilians … or the assassination of the president by the director of the South Korean CIA in 1979.” And he points to the immense costs and uncertainties for Western Europe.

In 1953, a Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission was set up in Korea. In the more than seven decades of the existence of the armistice agreement there have been numerous military skirmishes on the border. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a threat, just as the North calls the South Korean military with its ally the United States a threat. Precisely for this reason, is it remarkable that this agreement has prevented a new war with heavy losses for more than seven decades. The consequences of a Korean solution for the situation in Europe would probably also mean, as in the case of the Korean peninsula, arms races as during the early days of the Cold War

Neutral states could also play an important role in ending the Ukraine war: for example, India, South Africa, Brazil or Switzerland. If neither side makes significant gains in Ukraine, a ceasefire would not be impossible. Presumably, the Ukrainians would not regain all the territories occupied by Russia. Russia could interpret the abandonment of its actual goal as a partial victory in order to save face. The conflict would be frozen. Not a nice result, but still the end of the war. A frozen conflict is better than a hot war. But the history of frozen wars shows that they can turn into hot wars again at any time. In the case of Ukraine, the imposition of an unfair solution could possibly result in Ukrainian partisan resistance.

A possible fifth scenario, a peace agreement that is binding under international law, with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, currently seems to be completely out of the question.

Related articles by this author:
– Agonizing over Europe’s Defence: Some Narratives are Getting Ahead of the Facts
– Boots on the ground
– Ten Take-Aways on Russia’s War and Five Ideas for the Future of Ukraine and Beyond

Herbert Wulf is a Professor of International Relations and former Director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC). He is presently a Senior Fellow at BICC, an Adjunct Senior Researcher at the Institute for Development and Peace, University of Duisburg/Essen, Germany, and a Research Affiliate at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Otago, New Zealand. He serves on the Scientific Council of SIPRI.

This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from the original with their permission.

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The United Nations Security Council met on December 17 to discuss Syria’s transitional period following the end of Assad’s regime. Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad came about following a series of coordinated offensive missions spearheaded by the Syrian opposition which resulted in the seizure of the capital city Damascus. In the days following the fall of Assad’s government, the Syrian Civil War has reached a phase of heightened insecurity, plunging Syria into a state of nationwide insecurity.

On December 7, the Syrian opposition, also known as the Southern Operation Room , led by the Islamic political organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, coordinated an offensive mission in the Rif Dimashq region of Syria, resulting in the Syrian Arab Army withdrawing their forces from Damascus. This, coupled with a concurrent offensive mission, led by the opposition and the Syrian National Army, resulted in the rebels seizing control of Damascus and Homs, marking the end of Assad’s regime in Syria.

For approximately 53 years, the Assad clan has exercised authoritarian rule over Syria, with an extensively documented history of mass incarcerations, executions, and violations of international humanitarian law.

According to a press release from the International Committee of the Red Cross (IRC), during Assad’s 13 year rule over Syria, there have been 35,000 documented cases of enforced disappearances, with accurate numbers likely being far larger.

In a press release issued by Amnesty International, Secretary General Agnès Callamard emphasized the brutality of the Assad family’s rule, saying, “Under the rule of Bashar al-Assad, and before him his father Hafez al-Assad, Syrians have been subjected to a horrifying catalogue of human rights violations that caused untold human suffering on a vast scale. This included attacks with chemical weapons, barrel bombs, and other war crimes, as well as murder, torture, enforced disappearance and extermination that amount to crimes against humanity.”

Following Assad’s departure, thousands of Syrian civilians flooded the streets to celebrate. World leaders also expressed their satisfaction with the end of Assad’s regime. In a televised speech, U.S. president Joe Biden said “At long last, the Assad regime has fallen. This regime brutalized, tortured, and killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians. The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice.”

“The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure. Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored,” said United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Other nations such as France, Canada, and Germany, have indicated relief after Assad’s fall.

The United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) have reported plans to further monitor the developing situation in Syria and facilitate a peaceful transition of power. “Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners, in Syria and in the region. The process of rebuilding Syria will be long and complicated and all parties must be ready to engage constructively,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas in a social media statement posted to X (formerly known as Twitter). The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, called for urgent talks in Geneva to discuss measures that will be taken to achieve an “orderly political transition.”

Following Assad’s removal from office, the overall security situation in Syria has become increasingly volatile. According to figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), clashes between armed coalitions remain regular in Syria, particularly in Aleppo and Al-Raqqa. Since the escalation of hostilities in late November, an estimated 1.1 million people in Syria have been internally displaced, particularly in Aleppo, Idleb, Hama and Homs.

According to a report from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), civilian casualties in Syria have risen significantly since the escalation of hostilities, with hundreds having been killed or injured from November to December 8. North-west Syria has seen the most violence, with over 75 civilians having been killed, including 28 children and 11 women. At least 282 others have sustained critical injuries as well, including 106 children and 56 women.

Partners of the UN have discovered at least 52 minefields scattered across Syria in the first ten days of December. Syria’s healthcare system has seen considerable disruptions due to damage from warfare and looting. Hospitals have become overwhelmed due to the sheer influx of injured persons, with psychological distress and trauma being widespread, particularly in children. Movement restrictions and curfews have significantly hampered humanitarian missions.

Additionally, Israel has capitalized on the chaos in Syria, targeting the nation’s military assets. Syria has long been recognized as an ally of Iran, an enemy of Israel. On December 10, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched 480 airstrikes on military operations and equipment in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia and Palmyra.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee the security of Israel as well as to achieve a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria. Despite the absence of Irani forces in Syria, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria.

Nadav Shoshani, a spokesperson for the IDF, denied reports that Israeli forces are to head toward Damascus, but confirmed that they were operating beyond the buffer zone in Syria. However, Shoshani stated that Israel will not interfere with the “internal events” occurring in Syria.

Political analysts have expressed concern for the future of the Middle East following the toppling of Assad’s regime. Marco Carnelos, the former Middle East peace process coordinator special envoy for Syria for the Italian government, described Assad’s ousting as “one of the biggest geopolitical tectonic shifts since the Sykes-Picot agreements in 1916 and the understandings reached at the end of the First World War,” adding that certain nations, such as Iraq and Algeria will have a mixed reaction, while others “will breathe a sigh of relief.”

Arab states, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will be particularly sensitive to further developments in Syria that are motivated by civilian dissidence, fearing that Syria could inspire similar reactions in other Middle Eastern sovereignties.

Sarah Leah Whitson, the Executive Director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), informed reporters that Arab states will “make efforts to contain HTS and build alliances with an HTS-government primarily guided by the hope that what emerges will be friendly to them and their interests” in the wake of this major transitional period of Syrian history.

Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University, states that the success of the Syrian opposition will likely “inspire jihadis in their own countries” to commit similar acts of rebellion and will also shine a light on the injustices committed by their governments.

The international community remains hopeful that the demise of Assad’s regime will bring forth an opportunity for positive development in Syria. Rima Farah, a lecturer at Northeastern University who studies the cultural and political history of the Middle East, opines that the end of Assad’s dictatorship provides the Syrian people with an indispensable opportunity to construct “a (democratic) state with a constitution that protects everyone.”

Political analysts have noted numerous parallels in the Syria situation and the protests that resulted in Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing from Bangladesh to India. Both the Syria and Bangladesh situations were born of civilian discontent with their governments, resulting in protests and acts of rebellion, causing the incumbent leader to abandon their offices and flee to another country.

This is a testament to the importance of the civilian role in policy and decision-making processes. Furthermore, these two developments show that the government must be held accountable for measures that do not serve everyone equally.

Thameen Al-Kheetan, a spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR), told our correspondent that accountability is crucial in rebuilding Syria after 14 years of political instability. “This moment carries great hope as much as it raises huge challenges and legitimate uncertainty for Syrians. Accountability is one of the most important issues. Any transitional justice initiative should be inclusive, involve victims and ensure accountability for all past violations and abuses, those committed by the previous government and by all other parties to the conflict. To that end, the current authorities should ensure the preservation of evidence and facilitate the work of our Office as well as international mechanisms,” said Al-Kheetan.

Special Envoy Pederson added that it is imperative for Israeli bombardment and clashes between armed groups in Syria to stop to achieve substantial progress. “There is a real opportunity for change, but this opportunity needs to be grasped by the Syrians themselves and supported by the UN and the international community,” Pederson said.

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The port of Manzanillo, with the largest cargo movement in Mexico, is expanding its facilities without an environmental impact study. Credit: Colima Sostenible

By Emilio Godoy
MEXICO, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

The expansion of the port of Manzanillo, Mexico’s most important port in terms of cargo movement and located on the central Pacific coast, has major environmental impacts, as well as presenting climatic risks.

Work began on 23 November without the required environmental impact study, and includes the extension of the port, the construction of a gasoline storage terminal and a gas and steam power plant in the western state of Colima.“There is significant social damage that has never been resolved. For example, they dredged the lagoon to install the gas plant. When there is dredging, marine sediments are moved, more pollution is caused and when they mix, new pollutants are caused. The damage is irremediable”: Hugo Smith.

For independent expert Hugo Smith, the impact is “tremendous”, as the area hosts significant economic activity, such as agriculture, livestock, salt flats and artisanal fisheries.

“There is significant social damage that has never been resolved. For example, they dredged the lagoon to install the gas plant. When there is dredging, marine sediments are moved, more pollution is caused and when they mix, new pollutants are caused. The damage is irremediable”, he told IPS from the port city of Tampico, in the northeastern state of Tamaulipas.

The specialist stressed the lack of adequate planning, because “in other places they ask for climate forecasts, in this case there has to be very well-planned works, they have to be monitored. There is talk of sustainability as a political slogan, but there are no indicators.”

The expansion includes a storage and distribution facility of the state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) with a capacity for 3.7 million barrels of fuel, another maritime terminal with a capacity to move five million containers, and roadways.

The port site currently covers 437 hectares, housing 19 docks and warehouses.

With the work, due to be completed in 2030, the port area will be extended to 1,800 hectares in the second basin of the Cuyutlán lagoon. There are four regulating basins which capture the rain and separate the lagoon by roads and sluice gates.

With a public-private investment of US$3,480 million, the Mexican government is seeking to turn the port of the coastal city of Manzanillo into the largest in Latin America and the 15th largest globally, by doubling its total capacity.

The expansion is part of a scheme to modernise 10 Mexican federal ports.

The area of Manzanillo, a city in the western Mexican state of Colima, will be impacted in the long term by sea level rise, including the port area that is being expanded and is on the left side of the map depicted. Credit: Climate Central

Important habitat

President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office on 1 October, has maintained the plans of her predecessor and political mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024), to revive old projects. The expansion of Manzanillo dates back to the Felipe Calderón administration (2006-2012) and López Obrador formally took it up again in 2019, but without advancing its development.

The city of Manzanillo, with 159,000 people and more than 800 kilometres west of Mexico City, is surrounded by the lagoons of Valle de las Garzas and Cuyutlán, which are vital to the area’s environment because of the animal and plant species they shelter.

The governmental National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (Conabio) lists as ecosystem values the presence of salt cultivation, artisanal fishing, mangroves, native and migratory birds, as well as crocodiles and turtles, in the 7,200-hectare Cuyutlán lagoon, located parallel to the Pacific coast.

The ecosystem holds 90% of the wetlands in the state of Colima and is registered by Conabio as a priority marine and hydrological region.

In fact, in the last decade the agency warned that the port expansion could “potentially increase water levels and alter important habitats for nesting and feeding of organisms such as birds.”

The works will require, it said, “the opening of new channels of communication with the sea, as well as deeper navigation channels, which could provoke more severe changes in water levels and circulation.”

Hence the importance of the environmental impact assessment, in order to know the repercussions and the mitigation measures envisaged.

In 2017, then president Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018) issued a call for an environmental assessment, but it is ignored if it was carried out. In any case, the works were never undertaken.

Panoramic view of the Cuyutlán Lagoon, which has four basins. The expansion of the port of Manzanillo began in basin 2, with serious environmental impacts. Basins 3 and 4 are considered wetlands of international importance for their natural diversity. Credit: Conabio / Semar

Two lagoons in danger

The lagoon consists of four lagoon basins, the last two of which are adjacent to the area of the expansion.

These are sites of international importance since 2011 under the Convention on Wetlands, as they support vulnerable endangered species and threatened ecological communities; populations of plant and animal species important for maintaining the biological diversity of the region.

It is also home to some 20,000 waterfowl and migratory birds, as well as providing food for fish and a nesting ground for turtles.

To the north of the port is the 268-hectare Valle de las Garzas lagoon, which suffers from high levels of sediment due to soil loss from the watershed and urban activities, and has high levels of nutrients due to discharges from nearby treatment plants and human activities. It is therefore in worse condition than the Cuyutlán lagoon.

Despite its condition, the local environmental authorities have not yet declared it a protected area. Meanwhile, the fourth basin of the Cuyutlán lagoon is about to receive this status, although it does not seem that this protection will impede the already initiated port expansion project.

The area also faces climate threats. Between 2030 and 2050, the coastal areas around Manzanillo and inside the Cuyutlán lagoon will be flooded by rising sea levels, according to forecasts by the international scientific platform Climate Central.

In addition, the port area is exposed to increased flooding from rainfall, according to climate studies by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

Dead mangroves on the shore of the Cuyutlán lagoon, the most important wetland in Mexico’s western Pacific. Credit: Conabio / Semar

Inconsistency

Since 2023, the Ministry of the Navy, which manages the federal ports, has been implementing the Port Decarbonisation Strategy, which aims to reduce emissions in operations.

In what is the second-largest economy of Latin America, 227.75 million tonnes were handled between January and October in the 103 ports of the National Port System (SPN). A figure 7.5% lower than that of the same period in 2023.

Manzanillo handled 30.77 million tonnes – almost 1% less than in the same period of 2023 – up to last November.

In 2022, the 36 ports of the 18 SPN administrations emitted 1.33 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, almost double the level of 2021, according to the national strategy. Carbon equivalent measures pollution in reference to CO2. Manzanillo released 30% more emissions into the atmosphere than in 2022.

Measurements involve the activity of cargo ships, vessels parked in port, cargo handling equipment, locomotives and cargo trucks, as well as the operation of terminals, operators, service providers, shipping lines, shipping agents, customs, land transport and rail companies.

The Decarbonisation Strategy stipulates emission reductions of 25 % by 2030 and 45 % by 2050, but only sets out general measures, such as planning resilient infrastructure, harmonising management and planning instruments, such as concession titles, master development programmes and operating rules.

It also sets out how to identify, describe and programme the implementation of low-emission energy policies.

Port sustainability includes the consideration of environmental, economic and social aspects, such as pollution, dredging of nearby areas, return on investment and job creation.

But the installation of more hydrocarbon terminals, fuel storage facilities and a gas-fired power plant contradict the strategy’s goals. Official publicity presents it as sustainable because of its gas consumption, despite the fact that it is a highly polluting fossil fuel.

Moreover, the 2021-2026 master programme for port development does not address environmental considerations.

As is the case in the rest of Latin America, no Mexican port appears on the project map of the World Ports Sustainability Programme, an association that brings together the world’s largest environmentally friendly facilities.

Expert Smith pointed to a greater focus on ship operations to improve port sustainability.

“Ships are increasingly environmentally constrained. Ports do not provide renewable energy. Decarbonisation must focus on ships and the biggest polluters are container ships,” he said.

Malagasy woman preparing fish on the beach of Lavanono in the far south of Madagascar. The IPBES Transformative Change Report suggests that principles of equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action can achieve transformative change.

By Busani Bafana
WINDHOEK, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

Nature is at a tipping point. With human activity having pushed up to 1 million plant and animal species close to extinction, securing sustainable development and halting global biodiversity collapse is no longer just an option but a requisite for human wellbeing.

A new report by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) clarifies that only transformative change can reverse the biodiversity crisis and reset humanity’s relationship with nature for just and sustainable futures.

The IPBES Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity, also known as the Transformative Change Report, launched this week during the 11th IPBES Plenary session being held in Namibia, has a stark warning: biodiversity decline is galloping ahead, whipped up by humanity’s disconnect from and dominance over nature, coupled with the inequitable concentration of power and wealth. The prioritization of short-term individual and material gains, the report argues, has also led to the destruction of the fabric of life.

Change and Act Now

The report highlights the need for addressing biodiversity loss through what the authors describe as transformative change—fundamental systemwide shifts in views, including ways of thinking, knowing, and seeing; structures, such as ways of organizing, regulating, and governing; and practices, including ways of doing, behaving, and relating. According to the report, dominant worldviews, structures, and practices have played a significant role in accelerating biodiversity loss. The findings suggest that exploring alternative approaches could contribute to reducing biodiversity loss and achieving a more just and sustainable future.

Prof. Karen O’Brien (Norway/USA). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

Prof. Arun Agrawal (India & USA). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

Lucas Garibaldi (Argentina). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

“Transformative change for a just and sustainable world is urgent,” says Karen O’Brien (Norway/USA), co-chair of the assessment with Arun Agrawal (India & USA) and Lucas Garibaldi (Argentina). “There is a closing window of opportunity to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and to prevent triggering the potentially irreversible decline and the projected collapse of key ecosystem functions,” she added.

O‘Brien cites that under current trends, there is a serious risk of crossing several irreversible biophysical tipping points, including die-off of low-altitude coral reefs, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, and loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.

Justifying the urgency of transformative change, the report notes that past and current conservation approaches have failed to stop the loss of the variety of animals, plants, fungi, and microorganisms. The cost of inaction is high, the report warns.

The report estimates that the cost of addressing biodiversity loss and the decline of nature around the world could double if actions are delayed even by a decade. The report also examines potential opportunities for businesses and innovation through sustainable economic approaches, including nature-positive economies, ecological economies, and Mother-Earth-centric economies.

But the report offers hope. Implementing sustainable solutions to reverse biodiversity loss could generate business opportunities estimated at more than USD 10 trillion in business while supporting 395 million jobs globally by 2030, the report says, stating that transformative change can be created by everyone. In addition, governments can enable transformative change by fostering policies and regulations to benefit nature.

Meeting Sustainable and Biodiversity Goals

The report builds on the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment Report, which found that the only way to achieve global development goals is through transformative change. The latest assessment, prepared over three years, was produced by more than 100 leading experts from 42 countries.

Agrawal says promoting and accelerating transformative change is essential to meeting the 23 action-oriented targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030 and for achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity.

“Transformative change is rarely the outcome of a single event, driver, or actor,” says Agrawal. “It is better understood as changes that each of us can create and multiple cascading shifts that trigger and reinforce one another, often in unexpected ways.”

While addressing the underlying causes of biodiversity loss is challenging as it is complex, it can be done, argues Garibaldi, co-chair of the assessment. He says a new transformation on the scale of the industrial revolution is needed—but one that conserves and restores the biodiversity of the planet rather than depleting it.

The cover of the Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity. Credit: IPBES

Case studies of initiatives around the world with transformative potential show that positive outcomes for diverse economic and environmental indicators can happen in a decade or less.

The Transformative Change Report highlights that countries and people can advance deliberate transformative change for global sustainability by conserving places of value to people and nature that exemplify biocultural diversity. Furthermore, people can drive systematic change and mainstream biodiversity in the sectors most responsible for nature’s decline.

“The agriculture and livestock, fisheries, forestry, infrastructure and urban development, mining, and fossil fuel sectors contribute heavily to the worst outcomes for nature,” the report notes. “Transformative approaches such as multifunctional and regenerative land use can promote a variety of benefits for nature and people.”

Inclusivity Key to Nature Transformation

While researching the report, the authors assessed 850 separate “visions of a sustainable world for nature and people,” but found many did not challenge the status quo.

“The diversity of societies, economies, cultures, and peoples means that no single theory or approach provides a complete understanding of transformative change or how to achieve it,” said O’Brien. “Many knowledge systems, including Indigenous and local knowledge, provide complementary insights into how it occurs and how to promote, accelerate, and navigate the change needed for a just and sustainable world.”

At the launch, on Wednesday, December 18, Agrawal said every global problem is often, in essence, unfolding in local context, and what is seen as a global problem is closely and intimately connected to Indigenous knowledge relevant to a local context. He said, for example, adaptation efforts relevant in the Arctic would not be relevant in tropical forests, and emissions that are caused by what is happening in agriculture are not relevant to emissions caused by coal mines or large factories.

“All of these things that we consider as global problems, we need to think about the local particularity of the problem that gets aggregated into a global problem,” said Agrawal.

Coordinating lead author Rafael Calderon Contreras added that humanity was facing the most pressing and challenging crisis in history and that it was critical to learn from Indigenous communities on solutions to tackling the biodiversity crisis.

“What we found in our assessment is that we can learn from each other and that everyone has a role to play in achieving this vision of transformation that the assessment is pushing,” said Contreras.

Visions for living in harmony with nature are more likely to succeed when they emerge from inclusive, rights-based approaches and stakeholder processes and when they incorporate collaboration for change across sectors, the authors suggest.

Principles and Obstacles

The report says embracing the principles of equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action can achieve transformative change.

“The impacts of actions and resources devoted to blocking transformative change, for example through lobbying by vested interest groups or corruption, currently overshadow those devoted to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity,” says O’Brien.

Garibaldi says studies have suggested that increasing biodiversity, protecting natural habitats, and reducing external inputs in agricultural landscapes can enhance crop productivity, for instance, by enhancing pollinator abundance and diversity.

Other strategies that can be used to advance transformative change include changing economic systems for nature and equity, for example, eliminating subsidies that contribute to biodiversity loss. Global public explicit subsidies to sectors driving nature’s decline ranged from USD 1.4 trillion to USD 3.3 trillion per year in 2022, and total public funding for environmentally harmful subsidies has increased by 55 percent since 2021.

It is estimated that between USD 722 billion and USD 967 billion per year is needed to manage biodiversity and maintain ecosystem integrity. Currently, USD 135 billion per year is spent on biodiversity conservation, leaving a biodiversity funding gap of up to USD 824 billion per year.

Transforming governance systems to be inclusive, accountable, and adaptive will promote transformation, the report says, noting that shifting societal views and values to recognize human-nature interconnectedness was strategic for the world to act with haste.

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The conference will address new and emerging issues, and the urgent need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals, and support reform of the international financial architecture.FfD4 will assess the progress made in the implementation of the Monterrey Consensus, the Doha Declaration and the Addis Ababa Action agenda.

By Michael Jarvis
WASHINGTON DC, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

As the global community races to close the staggering $4.2 trillion financing gap needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) emerges as a crucial juncture.

Scheduled for June 30 to July 3, 2025, in Seville, Spain, this conference is not merely another gathering of world leaders and finance ministers. It represents a pivotal opportunity to reshape the global financial architecture and address critical issues such as climate financing, tax governance, and debt relief.

Yet, one vital partner in this process—philanthropy—remains largely underutilized. As governments navigate competing priorities and the private sector remains hesitant to fully commit to the development agenda, philanthropic funders have a unique role to play in ensuring that FfD4 delivers on its promise of equitable and sustainable outcomes.

Our recent report titled “Setting the Global Agenda for Tax, Debt, and International Aid through 2035,” underscores this urgency. The report calls on funders to engage actively in the FfD4 process and outlines key ways they can contribute to its success.

One vital contribution is widening stakeholder participation. Philanthropic funders can ensure that Global South civil society organizations (CSOs) have a seat at the table by providing financial support for their participation. The FfD4’s inclusive intergovernmental format, managed by the United Nations, is unique in offering Global South countries an equal footing, but to influence the eventual outcomes you need to be in the negotiating rooms.

Earlier this month, government representatives began narrowing down their wishlist in discussions in New York, but it is expensive to send delegations. Funders can facilitate the engagement of Global South governments in negotiations by financially supporting their involvement. This helps amplify their voices and ensures that systemic reforms reflect their realities and needs.

Additionally, philanthropy can bridge underfunded areas by supporting innovative research and advocacy efforts, particularly in tax reform and debt governance. For example, among the proposals up for debate is creation of a tax on the super wealthy backed by a global asset registry, a concept built out with philanthropic support. Filling these thematic gaps is essential to assuring that FfD4 sets an ambitious agenda for the decade to come.

Another critical action is for funders to make public commitments aligning their strategies with the FfD4 agenda backed by new investments, so inspiring others and encouraging donor accountability. The real test of FfD4’s impact, however, will come in the follow-up phase. Continued funding from philanthropic actors will be critical to ensuring the promises made at the conference are translated into concrete actions.

At the heart of the FfD4 agenda are issues that demand urgent and transformative action. The global debt crisis, for example, has left many developing nations in a financial stranglehold, threatening their economic stability and ability to invest in health, education, and infrastructure. A UN-mandated legal framework for debt resolution and targeted relief measures could provide a lifeline, but these require sustained advocacy and pressure from all quarters, including philanthropic actors.

Similarly, taxation and illicit financial flows (IFFs) remain contentious issues. Developing countries lose an estimated $1 trillion annually to tax avoidance and evasion, undermining their ability to fund essential services. Philanthropy can support research and policy advocacy to ensure that Global South perspectives are at the forefront of these reforms.

Finally, the conference will revisit the role of private financing in closing the SDG funding gap. While leveraging private capital has shown mixed results, the philanthropic community can play a critical role in identifying and promoting alternative, effective solutions.

While philanthropy has often been a silent partner in the Financing for Development process, this is the moment to step forward and make a tangible and long-lasting impact. For funders, FfD4 is not just an event—it is a call to action. It is an opportunity to amplify the voices of the marginalized, push for systemic change, and hold governments and institutions accountable. The philanthropic community must seize this moment to drive reforms that prioritize equity, transparency, and sustainability.

The clock is ticking. The world is watching. And philanthropy must rise to the occasion.

Michael Jarvis is the Executive Director of The Trust, Accountability, and Inclusion (TAI) Collaborative. The TAI Collaborative is a network of philanthropic funders committed to advancing a world where power and resources are distributed more equitably, communities are informed and empowered, and governments and the corporate sector act with integrity for the good of people and planet.

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Togo's President, Faure Gnassingbé

By Promise Eze
ABUJA, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

In May 2024, Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbé signed a new constitution, transitioning the country from a presidential to a parliamentary system. Under this new framework, lawmakers are responsible for electing the president.

Supporters of the reforms argue that this transition diminishes Faure Gnassingbé’s powers by making the presidency a largely ceremonial role. Human Rights Minister Yawa Djigbodi Tségan claimed the changes would improve democracy in the country. However, the opposition has called it a “constitutional coup,” accusing Gnassingbé of using it to entrench his power by removing term limits.

The new constitution extends presidential terms from five to six years and establishes a single-term limit. However, the nearly 20 years that Gnassingbé has already been in office will not be included in this count.

The reforms were passed by a parliament dominated by the ruling Union pour la République (UNIR) party, led by Gnassingbé. Despite public opposition, the president implemented the amendments after his party secured a majority in parliament.

A History of Power and Repression

The Gnassingbé family’s dominance began with President Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who seized power in 1967, just a few years after Togo gained independence from France. Eyadéma ruled for 38 years, during which he removed presidential term limits in 2002. His regime was marked by severe repression and allegations of human rights abuses, including violent crackdowns on protests and political assassinations.

Human rights organizations like Amnesty International frequently condemned Eyadéma’s government for its brutality, but Eyadéma dismissed these claims as part of a denigratory campaign against him, insisting that true Togolese democracy was based on security and peace.

After Eyadéma’s death in 2005, his son, Faure Gnassingbé, was installed as president by the military, sparking widespread protests and violence. Faure has since won disputed elections in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Despite reinstating term limits in 2019, they were not applied retroactively, allowing Faure to remain in office until at least 2030.

Gnassingbé’s Constitutional Façade

Many critics argue that the recent constitutional changes are simply a cover for Faure Gnassingbé to maintain control. Under the new system, the president will serve a largely ceremonial role, while real power will rest with the “president of the council of ministers,” a position that is expected to go to Gnassingbé himself.

In the period leading up to the vote in April, the government took measures to restrict civil liberties, including banning protests, arresting opposition leaders, and preventing the Catholic Church from deploying election observers. Foreign journalists were also barred from reporting on the events.

Abdul Majeed Hajj Sibo, a political analyst based in Ghana, told IPS that the reforms are a façade designed to give the illusion of democracy.

“Even the elections that keep bringing Faure back to power are manipulated. This constitutional façade is meant to deceive the Togolese people into believing there is change, but nothing has really changed,” Sibo said.

Faure’s rule is part of a broader trend of “strongman politics” in Africa, argues Sizo Nkala, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg. He notes that, like many other African leaders, Faure has used a combination of patronage, violence, ethnic favoritism, sham elections, and bogus constitutional amendments to stay in power.

“This is a common playbook used by dictators across the continent,” Nkala said.

Nkala posits that while Togo has effectively switched to a parliamentary system, similar to South Africa, the environment in which the elections take place makes all the difference.

“South Africa is a vibrant, multiparty democracy where elections are reasonably free and fair. This is why the African National Congress (ANC), which has governed the country since 1994, lost its majority in the May elections and was forced to form a coalition government with other parties. Moreover, South African legislators do follow their party lines but also enjoy a degree of autonomy. The same cannot be said of the Togolese parliament and electoral process. Elections are rigged frequently, and parliamentarians do not have the latitude to act according to their own convictions. Unlike in South Africa, there is no real separation of powers between the executive and legislature in Togo, which has given rise to the dictatorship and authoritarianism we see today,” he added.

Opposition Under Fire

The opposition in Togo has long faced a harsh political environment. Protests demanding democratic reforms have often been met with government crackdowns. After Eyadéma’s death in 2005, Faure’s rise to power was met with mass protests that led to the deaths of up to 500 people, and many were displaced.

The slogan “Faure Must Go” has become a rallying cry, but government crackdowns have consistently stifled opposition efforts.

“The last thing the Gnassingbé regime will want to see is a formidable opposition outfit; hence it has thrown spanners in the operations of the opposition. This is part of the reason the opposition won only 5 out of the 113 seats in parliament in the April elections,” Nkala told IPS.

He adds: “The Togolese opposition has struggled to mount a unified challenge to the Gnassingbé regime because they work in a very difficult environment where their activists could be subjected to violence, jailed arbitrarily, abducted, or even killed without recourse to justice for merely exercising their constitutional rights of dissent, freedom of association, and speech.”

Analysts also say that cracks and disputes among the Togolese opposition are also a limiting factor.

“The opposition needs to unite and fight as a single bloc, but they have been unable to do so,” Sibo told IPS. Boycotts of elections by opposition factions in the past have only strengthened Gnassingbé’s grip on power, he added.

Kwesi Obeng, a socio-political and inclusive governance expert at the University of Ghana, told IPS that it would be difficult for the opposition to make any headway not just because of its fragmentation but also because a tiny political and economic elite with very close ties to the Gnassingbé family has effectively captured the state of Togo and all its institutions. This dominance over state power and resources, he says, has made it very difficult for any group to break through.

He argued that this situation has resulted in wealth being concentrated in the hands of a few individuals.

“Many people live below the poverty line. In fact half of the Togolese living in rural areas—about 58%—really live in poverty. Additionally, about a quarter of those living in urban areas also live below the poverty line. So, you have a significant portion of the population living precarious lives, with barely any jobs, income, or access to basic services,” Obeng said.

Despite the ruling party’s dominance, the resilience of the opposition shows that there are still those willing to risk their lives for change, Nkala notes, adding that the opposition’s persistence, despite the odds, is a testament to the determination of millions of Togolese people who want to see an end to the Gnassingbé dynasty.

International Response and France’s Role

France has maintained a close relationship with the Gnassingbé family, which has fueled resentment in Togo. After Faure’s re-election in February 2020—an election condemned as rigged by the opposition—France sent him a congratulatory letter, sparking controversy.

Critics, like Sibo, argue that France continues to support the autocratic regime for economic reasons.

Former French President Jacques Chirac once  referred to President Gnassingbé Eyadéma as a “friend to France and a personal friend,” despite the human rights abuses associated with his regime.

Sibo believes this loyalty to the Gnassingbé dynasty has contributed to France’s reluctance to challenge the regime.

“As long as it serves their interests, France will turn a blind eye to the atrocities committed by the Gnassingbé family,” Sibo said.

Obeng agrees with Sibo’s views. “France runs the port, a major contributor to the Togolese GDP, and many major businesses in the country are partly French-owned. Therefore, I think the French government is not interested in unsettling the status quo regarding the governance system and structure in Togo. With Sahelian countries having driven the French out of that part of the continent, France now has very little foothold. As a result, they are reluctant to destabilize a country like Togo, which could potentially join the ranks of nations that have expelled the French from their territory.”

Efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) to address Togo’s political issues have been limited. ECOWAS’s failure to act on the situation in Togo damages its reputation as a leader in promoting regional stability and development, analysts say.

In 2015, ECOWAS attempted to introduce a two-term presidential limit across its member states, but this was blocked by Togo and Gambia.

Experts like Nkala are of the opinion that these organizations lack the legal authority to intervene effectively and that reforms are needed to give them real powers to enforce democratic protocols in member states.

Concerns are mounting over President Faure Gnassingbé’s role in the US-Africa Business Summit. Observers have pointed out that Western nations and organizations often do not authentically champion democracy in Africa. Critics claim these entities tend to prioritize their own agendas, often siding with questionable governments instead.

The Way Forward

With Faure’s party holding a strong majority in parliament, it seems unlikely that the regime will fall anytime soon, critics told IPS.

Nkala believes that unless Gnassingbé loses control of the military or faces a significant challenge from within his own party, political change is unlikely in the near future.

“The military is key to Faure’s power, and as long as they remain loyal, he will continue to rule Togo,” Nkala said.

Obeng says that as long as the elite continue to control the state machinery, including organizing elections, it will be very difficult for the opposition to unseat the government.

He added: “The opposition has made it clear that the elections were rigged, which is why some members chose not to participate. The Togolese opposition has already published its verdict that the elections were manipulated, and we need to take their charges seriously.”

However, Sibo remains hopeful that with greater unity, the opposition could eventually challenge the regime. “The opposition must focus on building a unified front,” he said. “If they can do that, there is still a chance for change.”

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A congested street in Bulawayo where public transporters pick up passengers at an undesignated point. Credit: Ignatius Banda/IPS

By Ignatius Banda
BULAWAYO, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

As the population in African cities grows, governments are struggling to provide sustainable public transport solutions, conditions that have led to gridlock in major business districts.

Projections show rapid growth of urban populations across the continent, and town planners are hard-pressed for time on how new spaces and infrastructure will be created for efficient public transport.

A growing number of cities are expected to hit a population of more than 10 million people by 2035, but social services are failing to match the overload on existing infrastructure, with public transport being one of the major sticking points.

In countries such as Zimbabwe, where government-owned transport utilities have been overtaken by thousands of illegal taxi operators, local authorities are fighting an uphill battle to bring order out of the urban chaos.

In the country’s two major cities, Harare and Bulawayo, municipalities have put in place measures to decongest the public transport sector, but these have fallen flat as both registered and unregistered operators have routinely ignored the decrees to work from designated points.

For example, in 2015, the city of Bulawayo awarded a multimillion-dollar contract for the construction of what was hoped to be a futuristic public transport terminus, but operators have shunned it, claiming its positioning in the central business district is bad for business.

While the Egodini Mall Taxi Rank and Informal Traders Market was also expected to provide trading space for vendors in anticipation of business from travelers, it is marked by empty vending bays, with traders preferring crowded CBD sidewalks instead.

City mayor David Coltart has conceded that the project risks becoming a white elephant, and construction of the next phase of the project has been halted to deal with these challenges, highlighting the challenge growing cities face in their efforts to modernise amenities.

Zimbabwe’s public transport headaches come against the backdrop of the Second World Sustainable Transport Day this November, where policymakers and agencies rethink urban mobility.

Other pertinent issues include ways of incorporating public transport into the broader improvement of “safety and security, reducing pollution and CO2 emissions while increasing the attractiveness of urban environments,” according to a United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) briefing during the 2023 World Sustainable Transport Day.

According to UN Habitat, the day was declared by the UN General Assembly “in recognition of the important role of safe, affordable, accessible, and sustainable transport systems for all in supporting sustainable economic growth, improving the social welfare of people, and enhancing international cooperation and trade among countries.”

However, to achieve this, UNECA says African governments must put in place “remedial measures” that will ensure the continent’s transportation systems are more sustainable and environmentally friendly.

“African governments must prioritize inclusive urban planning,” said Atkeyelsh Persson, chief of the Urbanization and Development Section at the Economic Commission for Africa.

“Key areas of focus should include upgrading infrastructure such as roads and utilities,” Persson told IPS.

This comes as Zimbabwe and other regional countries seem to be going backwards in realising UNECA’s goals as they are struggling to cope with rapid urbanisation and provide sustainable urban transport solutions for city dwellers.

During last year’s inaugural World Sustainable Transport Day, UNECA said the continent was in urgent need of developing sustainable and resilient public transport infrastructure if Africa is to “optimise the development of interconnected highways, railways, waterways, and airways.”

The agency noted that Africa’s rapid urbanisation was also a call to escalate sustainable urban transport solutions, but with government cuts in public spending and also the drying up of private investors in the sector, public transportation has only deteriorated.

“Despite this growth in urban populations, the rate of growth in housing, infrastructure, and basic amenities has not kept pace with this urban growth,” said Nyovani Madise, a demographics professor and President of the Union for African Population Studies.

“This has resulted in mushrooming of urban informal settlements, waste and pollution, congestion on the roads and overcrowding,” Madise told IPS.

While UNECA has called for the optimisation of interconnected transportation, Zimbabwe’s once thriving railways has become virtually nonexistent, with the National Railways suspending its passenger train service citing operational challenges.

As part of desperate efforts to deal with the shrinking space for public transport, the Bulawayo municipality is planning to take over parking space at the National Railways of Zimbabwe train station for use as a long-distance bus terminus.

The unusual move was triggered by an increasing number of long-distance buses in Bulawayo who have joined smaller pirate taxis picking up passengers in undesignated points.

These developments have further highlighted the difficulties some African countries face in balancing urban population growth and public transport needs, which could be a missed opportunity towards UNECA’s proposed “socially inclusive, environmentally sustainable, and well-governed continent.”

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Venezuela's legislative National Assembly approves the Bolivar law to punish with unprecedented severity those who support or facilitate punitive measures against the country. Credit: AN

By Jorge Pastrán
WASHINGTON, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

In Venezuela you can no longer say in public that the economic sanctions applied by the United States and other countries are appropriate, or even be suspected of considering any of the authorities illegitimate, because you can be sentenced to up to 30 years in prison and lose all your assets.

In late November, the ruling National Assembly passed the Simon Bolivar Organic Law (of superior rank) against the imperialist blockade and in defence of the Republic, the latest in a regulatory padlock closing civic space, according to human rights organisations.“We see a process of authoritarian learning. When we look at democratic setbacks, we see things that are repeated as patterns, such as the closure of civic space, of civil organisations, of journalism, of democratic political parties”: Carolina Jiménez Sandoval.

The powers of the Venezuelan state thus responded to United States’ and the European Union’s sanctions, and to the protests and denunciations of opponents and American and European governments, to the effect that a gigantic fraud was committed in the presidential election of 28 July this year.

The ruling Nicolás Maduro was proclaimed by the electoral and judicial powers as re-elected president for a third six-year term beginning on 10 January 2025, even though the opposition claims, by showing voting records, that it was their candidate Edmundo González who won, with at least 67% of the vote.

Speaking to IPS, several human rights defenders agreed that the country is following the example of Nicaragua, where laws and measures are driving hundreds of opponents into prison and exile, stripping them of their nationality and property, and suppressing critical voices by shutting down thousands of civil, religious and educational organisations.

“A red line has been crossed and the Nicaraguan path has been taken. Arbitrariness has been put in writing, in black and white, the repressive reality of the Venezuelan state, something even the military despots of the past did not do,” said lawyer Alí Daniels, director of the organisation Acceso a la Justicia, from Caracas.

The law adopted its long name as an indignant response to the US Bolivar Act, an acronym for Banning Operations and Leases with the Illegitimate Venezuelan Authoritarian Regime, designed to block most of that country’s business dealings with Venezuela.

The president of the non-governmental Washington Office on Latin America (Wola), Carolina Jiménez Sandoval, observed that “the closer we get to 10 January, the day when whoever won the 28 July election must be sworn in, we see more and more laws meant to stifling civic space.”

Other laws along these lines include: one to punish behaviour or messages deemed to incite hatred; another “against fascism, neo-fascism and similar expressions”; a reform to promptly elect 30,000 justices of the peace; and a law to control non-governmental organisations.

Demonstration in Caracas demanding respect for human rights. Credit: Civilis

Mere suspicion is enough

The Venezuelan Bolivar act considers that sanctions and other restrictive measures against the country “constitute a crime against humanity”, and lists conduct and actions that put the nation and its population at risk.

These include promoting, requesting or supporting punitive measures by foreign states or corporations, and “disregarding the public powers legitimately established in the Republic, their acts or their authorities.”

Those who have at any time “promoted, instigated, requested, invoked, favoured, supported or participated in the adoption or execution of measures” deemed harmful to the population or the authorities, will be barred from running for elected office for up to 60 years.

Any person who “promotes, instigates, solicits, invokes, favours, facilitates, supports or participates in the adoption or execution of unilateral coercive measures” against the population or the powers in Venezuela will be punished with 25 to 30 years in prison and fines equivalent to between US$100,000 and one million.

In the case of media and digital platforms, the punishment will be a heavy fine and the closure or denial of permits to operate.

The law highlights the creation of “a register that will include the identification of natural and legal persons, national or foreign, with respect to whom there is good reason to consider that they are involved in any of the actions contrary to the values and inalienable rights of the state.”

This registry is created to “impose restrictive, temporary economic measures of an administrative nature, aimed at mitigating the damage that their actions cause against the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and its population.”

Daniels tells IPS that “this means that a mere suspicion on the part of an official, with good reason to believe that a sanction is supported, is sufficient for a preventive freezing of a person’s assets, prohibiting them from buying, selling or acting in a money-making business.”

“Without prior trial, by an official’s decision, without knowing where to appeal against the entry in that register, the person is stripped of means of livelihood. Civil death returns,” he added.

Archive image of a national meeting of human rights defenders. Credit: Civicus

Other laws

The “anti-hate law” – without defining what is meant by it – has since 2018 prosecuted protesters, journalists, firefighters, political activists and human rights defenders on charges of directing messages inciting hatred towards the authorities.

This year, the state endowed itself with a law to punish fascism and similar expressions, a broad arc because it considers that “racism, chauvinism, classism, moral conservatism, neoliberalism and misogyny are common features of this stance.”

It has also reformed the justice of the peace law to promote the popular election of 30,000 local judges, under criticism from human rights organisations that see the process as a mechanism for the control of communities by pro-government activists and the promotion of informing on neighbours.

And, while the Bolivar act was being passed, the law on the control of NGOs and similar organisations was published, which NGOs have labelled an “anti-society law”, as it contains provisions that easily nullify their capacity for action and their very existence.

The law establishes a new registry with some 30 requirements, which are difficult for NGOs to meet, but they can only operate if authorised by the government, which can suspend them from operating or sanction them with fines in amounts that in practice are confiscatory.

“I think the application of the Bolívar law is going to be very discretionary, and if Maduro is sworn in again on Jan. 10, civic space will be almost completely closed and the social and democratic leadership will have to work underground,” sociologist Rafael Uzcátegui, director of the Venezuelan Laboratorio de Paz, which operates in Caracas, told IPS.

The president of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, and his wife and vice-president, Rosario Murillo, have taken measures against dissent that are models of authoritarianism in the region. Human rights activists believe that in countries such as Venezuela and El Salvador their strategies and norms are being replicated by those who seek to remain in power indefinitely. Credit: Presidency of Nicaragua

The Nicaraguan path

Daniels also argues that with the Bolívar law, the government “is going back 160 years, when the Venezuelan Constitution after the Federal War (1859-1863) abolished the death penalty and life sentences. A punishment that lasts 60 years in practice is in perpetuity, exceeding the average life expectancy of an adult in Venezuela.”

Along with this, “although without going to the Nicaraguan extreme of stripping the alleged culprits of their nationality, punishments are imposed that can turn people into civilian zombies, driven into exile. As in Nicaragua”.

For Jiménez Sandoval “there are similarities with Nicaragua, a harsh and consolidated case. It has cancelled the legal personality of more than 3,000 organisations, including humanitarian entities, national and international human rights organisations and universities, through the application of very strict laws.”

“In these cases… we see a process of authoritarian learning. When we look at democratic setbacks, we see things that are repeated as patterns, such as the closure of civic space, of civil organisations, of journalism, of democratic political parties,” she told IPS.

To achieve this, “they use different strategies, such as co-opting legislatures to make laws that allow them to imprison and silence those who think differently, to avoid any kind of criticism, because, at the end of the day, the ultimate goal of authoritarianism is to remain in power indefinitely”, concluded Jiménez Sandoval.

The General Assembly adopts a resolution on a "Demand for ceasefire in Gaza" during the resumed 10th Emergency Special Session of the General Assembly on “Illegal Israeli actions in occupied East Jerusalem and the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory”. Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

After 14 months of conflict between Israel and Palestine, talks of a ceasefire agreement have headed in a promising direction. The proposed agreement entails the release of hostages in Gaza, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Palestinian land, and a strategy for displaced Gazans to safely return to their homes in the northern region of the enclave. Despite both Israeli and Palestinian officials expressing optimism over this agreement, hostilities from the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continue to endanger the lives and infrastructures of thousands of Gazans.

On December 16, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz informed the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel is “closer than ever” to securing a deal with Hamas to free the Israeli hostages and end hostilities in Palestine. A senior Palestinian official echoed this sentiment to reporters, describing the negotiations between the two parties as in a “decisive and final phase”.

“We believe – and the Israelis have said this – that we’re getting closer, and no doubt about it, we believe that, but we also are cautious in our optimism,” said White House spokesperson John Kirby. Despite talks of a ceasefire swirling in the media and among top officials, the IDF continues to conduct airstrikes on densely populated areas and have issued new orders of evacuation, exacerbating the already dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

“In Gaza city, humanitarian partners say hostilities escalated over the weekend – particularly in areas affected by the new evacuation orders – leaving more Palestinians killed and injured,” said United Nations (UN) spokesperson Stephane Dujarric.

On December 12, two airstrikes hit three residential buildings in an Al Nuseirat camp in central Gaza. According to figures from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), these airstrikes killed an estimated 49 Palestinians, including at least 17 children. Three days later, the IDF issued a direct airstrike on a school in East Tuffah, causing considerable damage to the building and injuring several civilians.

Local authorities have confirmed that approximately 110 Palestinians were killed from December 14-15 in the Gaza Strip. On December 16, the IDF conducted a bombardment on a school-turned-shelter in Khan Younis, located in the southern region of the enclave. According to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), at least 13 people died and 48 were injured in this attack.

UNRWA Senior Emergency Officer Louise Wateridge described the brutality of this attack to UN News, saying, “I have been to Nasser Hospital this morning. One of the children I spoke to, her name was Mona, 17 years old; she had very severe injuries to her leg – she had very severe shrapnel wounds – and she was in the hospital with her sister…their mother was crushed to death under the rubble.”

The IDF claimed that the shelter was used as a training compound that would coordinate attacks against Israel. Hamas refuted these claims and accused the IDF of trying to “justify indiscriminate killings”.

Manal Tafesh, a resident of the Khan Younis camp who has lost her brother and children in the attack, informed reporters that people were eating dinner in their homes when the airstrikes hit the camp. “Our children are gone, our children are gone. Our youth is gone. Our children are gone, and our lineage ended. When will this darkness end?” Tafesh said.

On December 16, the UN confirmed that more than 45,000 civilians have been killed over the past 14 months of conflict in Gaza. Catherine Russell, the Executive-Director of the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), stated in a press release that approximately 14,500 Gazan children have been killed.

According to Dujarric, Israeli authorities had issued two new evacuation orders on December 13 and 14. These orders went into effect in Gaza City, northern Gaza, and the Deir al Balah area. The UN’s partners described 250 families moving southward from northern Gaza and roughly 450 families fleeing their homes in Deir al Balah. According to UN estimates, approximately 1,500 Gazans were displaced overnight on December 14 from Izbet Beit Hanoun.

Living conditions continue to grow worse in displacement shelters as the harsh winter season approaches. According to Russell, famine looms in the north and humanitarian access remains severely restricted.

On December 13, the World Food Programme (WFP) posted a statement on X (formerly known as Twitter), highlighting the urgency of the growing levels of famine among displaced persons in Gaza. WFP’s Head of Emergency Communications, Jonathan Dumont, warned that due to the restriction of humanitarian aid deliveries, most Gazans were likely not getting enough to eat. “To prevent famine we need to find a way to get a consistent flow of food in,” Dumont said.

Dumont went on to describe the deteriorating living conditions in Gaza, saying, “There’s no electricity or running water or sewage (treatment). Almost everyone has lost their home. A lot of people are living in tents.”

Russell added that infectious diseases have run rampant in displacement shelters, with an estimated 800 documented cases of hepatitis and 300 cases of chickenpox. Additionally, thousands of children are suffering from skin rashes and acute respiratory infections, which have been exacerbated by the cold weather.

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Harmful gasses continue to be released into the atmosphere across the world. Credit: Unsplash/Ehud Neuhaus

By Richmond Acheampong
ACCRA, Ghana , Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

The climate crisis, a defining challenge of the 21st century, is not just an environmental issue; it is increasingly a critical arena for international diplomacy. From intense negotiations at COP summits to the politics of energy transitions and resource control, climate change is shaping the geopolitical landscape.

This dynamic reflects deep divides between developed and developing nations on climate justice and raises critical questions about whether global diplomacy can bridge these tensions to achieve meaningful change.

Climate Change

Climate change is a global problem requiring collective action, but the geopolitical nature of climate negotiations often complicates this goal. At international forums such as the Conference of the Parties (COP), countries are expected to come together to craft solutions to limit global temperature rises. However, these forums frequently highlight stark disparities in perspectives, priorities and responsibilities.

Developed nations, historically responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions, often push for ambitious global targets. Yet, they are also accused of failing to deliver on their promises of financial and technological support for developing nations.

Developing countries, on the other hand, prioritize adaptation and financial aid, arguing that their limited historical contributions to emissions and ongoing developmental needs make equity and fairness non-negotiable.

This tension has been a recurring theme, exemplified by the debates around loss and damage funding, the establishment of which marked a significant step at COP27 in Egypt. While the agreement was a victory for climate justice advocates, questions remain over its operationalization and whether it can meaningfully address the complex needs of vulnerable countries.

The Politics of Energy Transitions

The transition to renewable energy lies at the heart of climate action, but it also underpins new forms of geopolitical rivalry. The shift from fossil fuels to renewables disrupts existing power dynamics in the global energy market, creating opportunities and challenges.

Developed nations, equipped with technological advancements and financial resources, are positioning themselves as leaders in renewable energy. The European Union, for instance, has spearheaded green initiatives such as the European Green Deal, while the United States has invested heavily in clean energy infrastructure through the Inflation Reduction Act.

These countries frame their actions as models for others to follow, yet their own energy security priorities sometimes overshadow global equity concerns.

For resource-rich developing nations, the politics of energy transitions are more nuanced. Countries like Nigeria and Angola, whose economies rely heavily on fossil fuel exports, face the dual challenge of transitioning to renewables while maintaining economic stability.

Moreover, resource control over critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements, essential for renewable energy technologies, has turned countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo into focal points of international competition.

The scramble for these resources raises concerns over whether the renewable energy revolution will perpetuate the same extractive patterns that have historically marginalized the Global South.

Climate Justice

The concept of climate justice underscores the inequities between developed and developing nations in their capacity to combat and adapt to climate change. Developed nations, having industrialized on the back of carbon-intensive activities, are now urging the Global South to follow a low-carbon development path. However, this demand often neglects the realities faced by many developing nations.

Countries in the Global South are disproportionately affected by climate impacts despite contributing the least to global emissions. From rising sea levels in the Pacific Islands to desertification in the Sahel, vulnerable nations bear the brunt of a crisis they did not create. Calls for climate finance, particularly grants rather than loans, have been central to their demands, as they seek support for adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage recovery.

Yet, the failure of developed nations to fulfill their long-standing pledge of $100 billion annually in climate finance exacerbates mistrust. At COP28 and beyond, developing nations are likely to continue pressing for stronger commitments and mechanisms to ensure accountability. The tension lies not just in the amount of financing but also in its accessibility, with many vulnerable nations criticizing complex processes that delay much-needed support.

Diplomacy at COP

The annual COP summits are microcosms of the broader diplomatic battle over climate change. Since the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015, these summits have sought to galvanize global action to limit temperature increases to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, the implementation of these commitments remains uneven and the ambition gap persists.

The Paris Agreement’s hallmark principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” (CBDR-RC) captures the equity challenge at the heart of climate diplomacy. It acknowledges that while all nations must act on climate change, their responsibilities differ based on historical emissions and capacities.

Yet, operationalizing this principle often leads to disagreements. Developed nations emphasize collective action and insist that emerging economies like China and India ramp up their mitigation efforts. Conversely, developing nations argue that they should not bear the same burden as historically high emitters.

The incremental nature of COP negotiations also invites criticism. Critics argue that the focus on long-term goals often overshadows the urgency of immediate action, and the influence of powerful fossil fuel lobbyists at these summits further complicates progress. Despite these challenges, COP summits remain a vital platform for fostering dialogue, building coalitions, and driving incremental but meaningful change.

Beyond COP

The geopolitics of climate change extend far beyond COP negotiations. Climate action has become a strategic lever in foreign policy, with countries using it to forge alliances, exert influence and secure economic advantages.

For instance, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has incorporated green development as a key pillar, with Beijing promoting renewable energy projects across the Global South. However, critics question whether these projects align with sustainability goals or primarily serve China’s geopolitical interests.

Similarly, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which imposes tariffs on carbon-intensive imports, is seen by some as a protectionist measure that could disadvantage developing countries.

The United States has also positioned itself as a climate leader under the Biden administration, rejoining the Paris Agreement and committing to ambitious domestic targets. However, its international credibility on climate action remains fragile, given its historical withdrawal from agreements and ongoing domestic political divisions.

Can Global Diplomacy Bridge the Divide?

The ability of global diplomacy to overcome tensions and achieve meaningful change hinges on several factors. First, trust-building measures, such as fulfilling climate finance commitments and establishing transparent mechanisms for loss and damage funding, are essential. Second, fostering inclusive decision-making that amplifies the voices of vulnerable nations can help bridge the North-South divide.

Innovative approaches, such as the Bridgetown Initiative proposed by Barbados, offer a potential roadmap. This initiative advocates for reforming the global financial system to better address climate vulnerabilities, emphasizing grants, concessional financing and debt relief for climate-affected countries. Such proposals highlight the need for structural changes that go beyond the traditional frameworks of climate diplomacy.

Finally, the rise of climate activism and youth movements worldwide has injected new urgency and accountability into the process. From Greta Thunberg’s Fridays for Future to indigenous movements defending natural resources, these voices challenge governments to act with greater ambition and equity.

Conclusion

The climate crisis is undeniably a diplomatic battlefield, reflecting deep-seated inequities and competing priorities. While international forums like COP provide a platform for negotiation, the path to meaningful change requires addressing the underlying tensions between developed and developing nations. Climate justice, equitable energy transitions, and innovative financial mechanisms must take center stage if global diplomacy is to succeed.

The stakes could not be higher. As the impacts of climate change accelerate, the world faces a narrowing window of opportunity to act decisively. Only through genuine collaboration, rooted in fairness and shared responsibility, can humanity rise to the challenge and transform the climate crisis from a battlefield into a catalyst for global solidarity.

Richmond Acheampong is a journalist and columnist specializing in international affairs, a PR expert, and a journalism lecturer with a PhD in Journalism and expertise in global diplomacy and foreign policy. Contact: achmondsky@gmail.com

IPS UN Bureau

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CIVICUS speaks with Ramón Zamora, son of Guatemalan journalist José Rubén Zamora, about restrictions on press freedom and the challenges of defending human rights in Guatemala.

Rubén Zamora is part of the CIVICUS Stand as My Witness campaign, which seeks the release of unjustly imprisoned human rights defenders. The veteran journalist, founder of Periódico Siglo 21 and renowned for his investigations into corruption, has been fighting unfounded accusations of money laundering for over two years. His legal situation took a turn for the worse recently when a court ordered his return to prison after a brief period of house arrest. As his family prepared to appeal, President Bernardo Arévalo denounced the court’s decision as an attack on freedom of expression.

Ramón Zamora

My father comes from a family of journalists. His grandfather, Clemente Marroquín, was the founder of La Hora, one of the most important newspapers in Guatemalan history. In 1990, my father founded the media outlet Siglo 21. A transition to democracy was underway and he had understood that democracy couldn’t function without real freedom of expression, that is, when people aren’t able to express their ideas without fear. That’s why it was important to have a media outlet that, on top of providing information, also included a plurality of voices.

Siglo 21 opened up spaces for leftist thought, which earned it threats and attacks from sources linked to the army. In addition, from the outset it dealt with sensitive issues, which quickly put it in the crosshairs of many powerful figures. Threats and attacks soon followed for his investigations into corruption. In 1993, following a coup by then President Jorge Serrano Elías, who suspended the constitution and dissolved Congress, the presidential security service came looking for my father and the family was forced into hiding. However, my father continued to fight, publishing a banned edition of Siglo 21, which had been censored, and sharing information with international media.

After leaving Siglo 21, he founded El Periódico in 1996 and Nuestro Diario in 1998, always with the aim of continuing to investigate corruption. His investigations led to the jailing of several powerful people. Over the years he suffered arbitrary treatment, assassination attempts and kidnappings, but he continued his work, until 2022, when he was arbitrarily arrested and sentenced in retaliation for exposing corruption in the government of Alejandro Giammattei.

What were the charges that sent your father to prison?

He was accused of money laundering, extortion and influence peddling. It was alleged that he used the newspaper and his access to government sources to obtain privileged information to extort money from businesspeople and public officials. According to government officials, my father threatened to publish stories in the newspaper if they did not comply with his demands, and allegedly laundered the money from these extortions through the newspaper.

To understand the justification for his arrest, we need to consider the broader context of attacks on the newspaper. Since 2013, the newspaper has suffered economic pressure and threats from government officials, such as then Vice-president Roxana Baldetti, who called our clients to threaten them with investigations if they continued to support the newspaper with advertising. This reduced the paper’s income by more than half. To get around the pressure, my father finally started accepting donations from people who wanted to remain anonymous. This was one of the reasons he was accused of laundering undeclared money. My father was criminalised for defending freedom of expression and denouncing corruption.

How did your father experience these years of arbitrary detention?

At first it was very hard because he was held in a military prison, in a very small cell, completely isolated from other prisoners. In the same prison were people convicted of corruption thanks to the reporting he had published, which put him in great danger. He soon started receiving constant threats.

In the first few days, his cell was searched several times, and bedbugs found their way into his bed, causing severe bites all over his body. He was unable to sleep because of the constant noise, as there was construction going on next to his cell. It was all very stressful, both physically and emotionally. There were times when he thought he would never get out alive. To make matters worse, we were often denied authorisation to enter the prison or given ridiculous excuses, which kept him in a constant state of uncertainty.

He also suffered greatly during court hearings. There was one judge who went out of his way to prevent him having access to a proper defence. We had to change lawyers several times and many of them were persecuted for defending my father.

My brother and I worked to keep the newspaper afloat, even though several journalists were forced into exile. A few months ago we managed to get my father released to house arrest, but his case continued to be full of irregularities and a month later the benefit of house arrest was lifted. We are still waiting for the appeals court to review the decision, but it is likely he will have to return to prison this week or next. My father is still fighting for his freedom and a fair trial to prove his innocence.

How can the international community help?

The international community has played a very important role in the whole process. We were able to get my father out of prison in large part because of pressure from organisations such as Amnesty International, CIVICUS, the Committee to Protect Journalists, Freedom House, Reporters Without Borders and others who spoke out and mobilised.

As a family, we have always felt supported. We are now awaiting the resolution of the amparo appeal – a petition to protect constitutional rights, which could allow my father to continue his struggle from home. This would be ideal, although we are still awaiting a final decision.

The international community must continue to defend human rights and freedom of expression and support the media, particularly in countries where corruption and impunity prevail.

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See also
Guatemala: ‘Corrupt elites see defenders of justice as a threat to their interests and try to silence them’ Interview with Virginia Laparra 30.Aug.2024
Guatemala: ‘Disregard for the will of the people expressed at the ballot box is the greatest possible insult to democracy’ Interview with Jorge Santos 13.Jan.2023
Guatemala: ‘Our democracy is at risk in the hands of political-criminal networks’ Interview with Evelyn Recinos Contreras 04.Jul.2023

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"Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline." Credit: Desmond Brown/IPS

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Dec 17 2024 (IPS)

Planet Earth is drying up, relentlessly. Over three-quarters of all lands have become permanently drier in the last three decades. This is not jut a statistic but a stark scientific fact. But while such an ‘existential crisis’ affects nearly every region, guess where -and who- are the most hit? 

They are the 1.35 billion humans living in Asia’s drylands, that’s more than half the global total. And they are the 620 millions people who inhabit Africa’s drylands, e.g. nearly half of the continent’s population.

The above are some of the key findings of worldwide scientific research elaborated by the Bonn-based UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

A Human-Perpetrated Crime

The report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift.

“Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use changes warm the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rainfall, evaporation and plant life, creating the conditions that increase aridity.”

According to the world’s scientific community, aridity is considered one of the world’s five most important causes of land degradation (along with land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss and vegetation degradation).

Drylands Expending at an Alarming Rate

The overarching trend, however, is clear: drylands are expanding, pushing ecosystems and societies to suffer from aridity’s life-threatening impacts.

The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, and China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.

Billions Living in Expanding Drylands

For the 2.3 billion people – well over 25% of the world’s population – living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, represents a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability, warns the research.

“And as the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by the century’s end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources, and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.”

A Billion Climate Forced Migrants

Nearly a decade ago, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated that the number of climate migrants and refugees could be estimated to reach one billion in the coming decades.

Now, according to the scientific findings, forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences.

“As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide.”

From the Middle East to Africa and South Asia, millions are already on the move—a trend set to intensify in coming decades.

“Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline,” warns Nichole Barger, Chair, UNCCD Science-Policy Interface.

Total Impunity for Polluters

According to the European Union (EU) the Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) is a simple idea at the core of EU environmental policy: those responsible for environmental damage should pay to cover the costs.

“This applies to prevention of pollution, remediation, liability (criminal, civil and environmental liability) and the costs imposed on society of pollution that does happen.”

Such PPP has been too far away from being applied, rather: it has been systematically denied.

The most recent evidence of such denial is the outcome of the Baku, Azerbaijan’s climate summit (COP29).

A “Global Ponzi Scheme”

Perhaps one of the clearest evidence is what the world’s coalition to fight inequality: OXFAM International, stated at the end of the Baku meeting.

Responding to the COP29 climate finance agreement, in which rich countries agree to mobilize $300 billion a year to help Global South countries cope with warming temperatures and switch to renewable energy, Oxfam International’s Climate Change Policy Lead, Nafkote Dabi, said:

“The terrible verdict from the Baku climate talks shows that rich countries view the Global South as ultimately expendable, like pawns on a chessboard…

… The $300 billion so-called ‘deal’ that poorer countries have been bullied into accepting is unserious and dangerous —a soulless triumph for the rich, but a genuine disaster for our planet and communities who are being flooded, starved, and displaced today by climate breakdown….

And as for promises of future funding? They’re just as hollow as the deal itself.”

The real PPP: “The Poor Pays Principle”

“The money on the table is not only a pittance in comparison to what’s really needed –it’s not even real “money”, by and large, warns OXFAM.

“Rather, it’s a motley mix of loans and privatized investment –a global Ponzi scheme that the private equity vultures and public relations people will now exploit.”

The destruction of our planet is avoidable, but not with this shabby and dishonorable deal. The richest polluters need to wise up —and pay up.”

No way, rather…

Did you know that billionaires emit more carbon pollution in 90 minutes than the average person does in a lifetime.

And that superyachts and jets of Europe’s elite emit more carbon pollution in a week than the world’s poorest 1% emits in a lifetime

The scientific findings show that aridity impacts vast areas of the rich Western powers – those who most contaminate.

All the above goes far beyond semantics: when it comes to the polluters, they talk just about money. But when it comes to the polluted, it is about devastation, diseases… and death.