Nate Silverಪರಿಶೀಲಿಸಿದ ಖಾತೆ

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
ಆಗಸ್ಟ್ 2008 ಸಮಯದಲ್ಲಿ ಸೇರಿದ್ದಾರೆ
1,328 ಫೋಟೋಗಳು ಅಥವಾ ವೀಡಿಯೋಗಳು ಫೋಟೋಗಳು ಮತ್ತು ವೀಡಿಯೋಗಳು

ಟ್ವೀಟ್‌ಗಳು

ನೀವು @NateSilver538 ಅವರನ್ನು ತಡೆಹಿಡಿದಿರುವಿರಿ

ಈ ಟ್ವೀಟ್‌ಗಳನ್ನು ವೀಕ್ಷಿಸಲು ನೀವು ಖಚಿತವಾಗಿ ಬಯಸುವಿರಾ? ಟ್ವೀಟ್ ವೀಕ್ಷಣೆಯು @NateSilver538 ಅವರ ತಡೆತೆರವುಗೊಳಿಸುವುದಿಲ್ಲ

  1. 2 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    , turnout from grassroots GOP conservative voters was very high. But turnout among Democrats was also very high, and there are more Democrats than Republicans (and independents largely went against Republicans).

    Dear House GOP one reason you lost is bc grass root conservatives didn't see you fighting for the Trump agenda. Show us your learned.
    37 replies 159 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 1,078ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  2. 2 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    The debates are good, and probably a better way to let voters sort through candidates than most of the alternatives (e.g. cable news clips and media narratives).

    Stop with the debate complaining. They're fun, they make news, and if you really pay attention, they make a difference.
    54 replies 52 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 493ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  3. 3 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    O'Rourke voted with Trump 30% of the time, which isn't that high -- a lot of those votes were on non-controversial, boilerplate legislation. But it's higher than you'd predict given that Trump is extremely unpopular in his district.

    63 replies 81 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 289ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  4. 6 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    It's hard to figure out what's going on in this story but even harder to figure out what makes any of it "Russian-style". The Russians didn't invent trolling, and they certainly didn't invent ratfucking.

    A group of Democratic tech experts decided to try out Russian-style deceptive tactics in last year's fiercely contested Alabama Senate race, a sign that US political operatives may adopt Russian methods. ⁦⁩ ⁦⁩
    58 replies 122 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 760ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  5. ಅವರು ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸಿದ್ದಾರೆ
    7 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    Trump admin has not been moving Latinos further toward Democrats, likely because those remaining with Republicans are more likely to be native-born & evangelical, have stable partisanship, & aren’t focused on immigration

    41 replies 103 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 210ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  6. 7 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    Some people are good at making it not worth your while to argue with them—which can be a useful skill. But I wonder how many of them operate under the delusion that they're skilled at *persuasion*, which is a totally different and indeed somewhat opposite phenomenon.

    421 replies 804 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 4,881ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  7. 23 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    🚨🚨🚨 MUELLER FLIPS GORPMAN 🚨🚨🚨

    111 replies 147 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 773ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  8. 24 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    It's also pretty questionable how much IA and NH have mattered anyway in recent elections (they haven't produced much of a "bounce"). Maybe they matter more in a year like 2012 or 2004 when the field is slow to develop. But 2020, like 2016 and 2008, is starting early.

    22 replies 12 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 108ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
    ಈ ಥ್ರೆಡ್ ತೋರಿಸಿ
    ಈ ಥ್ರೆಡ್ ತೋರಿಸಿ
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  9. 24 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    It should go without saying that those Super Tuedsay states are a lot more representative of what the country as a whole look like. So just speaking for myself, I think it would be a Good Thing if the media traded off some IA/NH coverage for some CA/TX/NC/VA coverage.

    33 replies 79 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 488ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  10. 24 ಗಂಟೆಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ

    There's nothing inherently important about IA and NH. They're important to the extent that candidates, the media and "party elites" deem them to be important. I still think they'll matter quite a bit, but perhaps in better balance with the key Super Tuesday states (CA/TX/VT/NC).

    This is the cycle that Iowa and NH are rendered all but meaningless.
    ಈ ಥ್ರೆಡ್ ತೋರಿಸಿ
    25 replies 40 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 236ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  11. ಅವರು ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸಿದ್ದಾರೆ
    ಡಿಸೆಂ 19

    had to update the axis on this chart today because the cavs are sad. we don't expect them to be back at full-strength until February which wasn't that strong to begin with 😬 📉

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  12. ಅವರು ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸಿದ್ದಾರೆ
    ಡಿಸೆಂ 19

    How will Republicans react, say, if Trump pardons a family member? Or tries to fire Mueller?

    39 replies 26 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 89ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  13. ಡಿಸೆಂ 19

    In any scenario wherein Trump was actually vulnerable to a primary challenge, this move would probably backfire IMO. Gives his opponent weeks' worth of arguments that the system is rigged—and those arguments would be correct!— which tend to be powerful in primaries.

    NEW: The South Carolina Republican Party likely to cancel its presidential primary in 2020 to protect from any GOP challengers that might emerge. (There is precedent for this strategy.)
    38 replies 129 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 796ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  14. ಡಿಸೆಂ 19

    In fact, I am gay, and I'm just old enough (40) to remember when conservative groups urged boycotts of advertisers and networks who were seen as promoting LGBTQ or other "nontraditional" lifestyles. That strongly influences my views on this subject!

    @NateSilver538 ಅವರಿಗೆ ಪ್ರತಿಕ್ರಿಯಿಸುತ್ತಿದ್ದಾರೆ
    You are speaking as a publisher, not a citizen. If you’re a person of color or a member of the LGBTQ community or an immigrant, these companies are literally footing the bill for you to be vilified every week. Bigotry should not be deemed political. That’s a big part of the issue
    845 replies 474 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 5,026ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  15. ಡಿಸೆಂ 19

    So they don't have to vet merit of the claims at all? Any time a vocal minority of consumers organizes a boycott, the advertiser should just pull itself off the show? That seems like a bad equilibrium, and one that can and will be gamed by people whose politics don't match yours.

    But they’re *not* really deciding that. Consumers are using capitalism as a lever to force them to make a choice. I don’t particularly care whether their PR departments agree or not — they are just responding to market pressures. Its one of the more moral aspects of capitalism.
    ಈ ಥ್ರೆಡ್ ತೋರಿಸಿ
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  16. ಡಿಸೆಂ 19

    I tend to agree that Tucker is a racist, or at least that he convincingly plays a racist on TV. However, I don't want the PR department of Applebee's deciding for us all what's racist vs. legitimate/acceptable political speech.

    I disagree. This is not a boycott because of political viewpoint. No calls for boycott of Hannity. This is a set of boycotts because of disgusting personal behavior and disgusting racism. Very different.
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  17. ಡಿಸೆಂ 19

    Jack is right. The logical endpoint of deeming advertisers to have endorsed the political messages of the shows they run ads on is that only milquetoast both-sidesism with a pro-corportate bent will be advertising-supported, if any political content is ad-supported at all.

    I didn't like the organized advertiser boycotts against Bill O'Reilly and I don't like the ones against Tucker Carlson.
    3,288 replies 669 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 3,439ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  18. ಡಿಸೆಂ 18

    The media pays a disproportionate about of attention to Twitter, but there are a lot of tweets, and there's no evidence they paid a disproportionate amount of attention to Russian tweets relative to other tweets. Probably less, since the IRA tweets underpeformed in impressions.

    @NateSilver538 ಅವರಿಗೆ ಪ್ರತಿಕ್ರಿಯಿಸುತ್ತಿದ್ದಾರೆ
    my concern is that the news media paid attention to Twitter, and the news media seems to have had a very big effect on the election. you don't need many tweets overall if they reach the right people/places.
    35 replies 22 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 152ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
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  19. ಡಿಸೆಂ 18

    My suggested headline of McSally McMight McMimic McCain was rejected.

    Martha McSally will probably vote like McCain in the Senate.
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  20. ಡಿಸೆಂ 18

    Basically, the regular season of the primary campaign has begun. The playoffs begin next February, in Iowa. If you just want to tune into the playoffs, they're definitely more action-packed and dramatic. But what's happening now is newsworthy and important, too.

    54 replies 48 ಮರುಟ್ವೀಟಿಸುವಿಕೆಗಳು 465ಇಷ್ಟಗಳು
    ಈ ಥ್ರೆಡ್ ತೋರಿಸಿ
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@NateSilver538 ಅವರು ಇನ್ನೂ ಟ್ವೀಟ್ ಮಾಡಿಲ್ಲ.

ಲೋಡಿಂಗ್ ಸಮಯ ಸ್ವಲ್ಪ ತೆಗೆದುಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಿರುವಂತೆನಿಸುತ್ತದೆ.

Twitter ಸಾಮರ್ಥ್ಯ ಮೀರಿರಬಹುದು ಅಥವಾ ಕ್ಷಣಿಕವಾದ ತೊಂದರೆಯನ್ನು ಅನುಭವಿಸುತ್ತಿರಬಹುದು. ಮತ್ತೆ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನಿಸಿ ಅಥವಾ ಹೆಚ್ಚಿನ ಮಾಹಿತಿಗೆ Twitter ಸ್ಥಿತಿಗೆ ಭೇಟಿ ನೀಡಿ.

    ಇದನ್ನೂ ಸಹ ನೀವು ಇಷ್ಟಪಡಬಹುದು

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