Dennis Ross

Will Iran 'break out' for a nuclear weapon, and what can Trump do? https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/452942-will-iran-break-out-for-a-nuclear-weapon-and-what-can-trump-doMy … my explanation for why Iran is doing what it is doing and what the options for dealing with it.

Imagine if we had soft power—the kind that makes us a source of attraction, makes others want to identify with and be responsive to us. Internationally, Iran would have been held responsible for the attacks, losing deniability and increasing deterrence.More than hard power needed

With Iran’s shoot down of our drone, and Trump saying Iran made a big mistake, fear of escalation and war among our allies will be high. As I wrote in the Washington Post, Trump can use that fear to say to our allies: join us in multinational naval task force and I won’t react.

Just on C-Span’s Washington Journal, callers’ skepticism about Trump Administration approach to Iran is a reminder that going it alone and not having international support will make any policy hard to sustain. It will also make it harder to deter Iran’s asymmetrical actions.

Iran applying its version of maximum pressure on the US and its interests now. American maximum pressure was bound to trigger deniable Iranian responses; don’t expect ship attacks to stop unless Iranians fear costly responses. Right now, they don’t.

Feel terrible for KD. Important reminder of the real limits of sports medicine. The best doctors, including his doctor not the team doctors, with multiple MRIs, intense rehabilitation of the calf muscle, constant scrutiny, and no indication of inflammation of his Achilles.

And offer additional projects as well in the West Bank. Israel will still symbolically deduct, and Arabs can fill that gap but won’t take the place of all the transfers. Bahrain could make a contribution if stabilization in Gaza and the WB become the real agenda.

With no political horizon and actions seen by Palestinians as hostile, the Administration needs to show it can get things done that will benefit Palestinians. Gaza needs basics, the PA needs to take Israeli tax transfers. Arab leaders can say take the money and we fill the gaps.

The Bahrain economic workshop should focus more on stabilization in the near term and less on the economic components of the Trump peace plan. The Palestinian public might be more open to what is coming if they see Bahrain ease the conditions in Gaza and the PA’s fiscal crisis.

Plus, given the difficulty of putting together a government this time, will the same scenario be repeated or could a national unity government between the leading parties, with or without Bibi, be more likely—especially if a third election is required otherwise?

Nobody knows what the Israeli election will bring. Will Bibi’s vote decline, given his desire for immunity? Will Blue-White present policy proposals or still make the election solely about Bibi and the rule of law? Will General Yair Golan lead Labor? Will the Arabs vote?