Skeptical Science

The role of climate change in the catastrophic 2025 Los Angeles fires

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 09:41:16 EST

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Flames from the Palisades Fire burn a building at Sunset Boulevard amid a powerful windstorm on January 8, 2025 in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, California. The fast-moving wildfire had destroyed thousands of structures and burned more than 15,000 acres by Thursday, January 9. (Photo by Apu Gomes/Getty Images)

[Haz clic aquí para leer en español]

The New Year has rung in with one of the most horrific wildfire events in world history: an urban firestorm in the Los Angeles metro area that has killed at least five people and reduced thousands of homes to smoking rubble. Two major fires in excess of 10,000 acres – the Palisades fire in the western suburbs of Los Angeles, and the Eaton fire in the northern suburbs – were intensified by severe drought and driven by winds gusting up to 100 mph (161 km/hr) from a severe Santa Ana wind event.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain said on CNN that the Pacific Palisades fire alone may end up as the most expensive wildfire in history, and that he expected that collectively, the fires ravaging the region will be the costliest wildfire event in history. According to NOAA, the most expensive wildfire season on record (in 2024 USD, to account for inflation) was the $30 billion 2018 season, mostly because of severe fires in California. This included the most destructive wildfire on record – the November Camp Fire, which devastated Paradise, California, killing 85 and destroying over 18,800 buildings. That fire cost $20 billion (2024 USD), according to EM-DAT, making it the most expensive single fire in world history.

The role of climate change in the fires

The main way that climate change worsens wildfires is by drying out vegetation. Prolonged heat turns forests and grasslands into tinder, fueling faster, more intense burns. In the case of this week’s fires, vegetation growth in early 2024 was enhanced by a wetter-than-average winter in Southern California. But during the summer of 2024, California experienced its hottest summer on record. This record heat, combined with near-record dryness, dried out the plentiful vegetation that grew in response to the wet winter. Moreover, Southern California’s wet season, which usually begins in October or November, was delayed, and by January 2025, severe drought conditions were in place (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Weekly drought condition maps for California during two severe Santa Ana wind events: Jan. 7, 2025 (left) and Nov. 29, 2011 (right). Los Angeles was not experiencing drought for the 2011 event, but was in severe drought for the 2025 event. (Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor)

In an email, climate scientist Daniel Swain offered these insights on the California climate change/wildfire connection:

California’s fire season has already lengthened considerably in a warming climate. Critically, this has increased the overlap between “critically dry vegetation season” and “offshore wind season” (Oct-Jan). There is little evidence for climate change affecting Santa Ana winds themselves, but there is strong evidence that climate change has greatly increased the occurrence of extreme fire weather conditions in Southern California in autumn and early winter (Goss et al. 2020, Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California). Climate change has also increased the seasonal overlap of dry/windy conditions (Swain 2019), and there is evidence that further warming will increase wet-to-dry “hydroclimate whiplash” transitions (which result in abundant vegetation growth then subsequent drying; see my new paper, Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth). Additionally, the California “shoulder season” precipitation (autumn and spring) will likely decrease with warming, adding to the effects of warming temperatures and increasing evaporative demand (drying out of vegetation) essentially year-round.

There are two other important ways that a longer dry season from climate change worsens wildfires:

Scarcer water supplies because of more intense droughts hinder firefighting efforts and recovery.
There are fewer safe days for prescribed burns, making it harder to reduce fuel loads in vulnerable areas before fire season starts.

A 2023 study found from 1971 to 2021, human-caused climate change contributed to a +172% increase in burned areas in California, with a +320% increase from 1996 to 2021. In the coming decades, a further increase in annual forest burned areas is expected, ranging from 3% to 52%.

Comparing the 2025 and 2011 severe Santa Ana wind events

This week’s fires were driven by the intense winds of a severe Santa Ana wind event. On Wednesday, Jan. 8, at least 32 stations in the Los Angeles area recorded wind gusts of at least 70 mph, with the highest being a 100-mph (161 km/hr) wind gust at Mt. Lukens Truck Trail, located about 20 miles (32 km) north of Los Angeles. The last Santa Ana wind event of similar intensity occurred over 13 years ago, on Nov. 30-Dec. 1, 2011. During that event, widespread wind gusts over 70 mph (113 km/hr) toppled thousands of trees, and over 200,000 homes lost electricity, mostly in the northern Los Angeles suburbs of Altadena and Pasadena. Whitaker Peak (elev. 4,120 feet), located about 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Los Angeles, recorded a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h).

Fortunately, no major wildfires were sparked the 2011 Santa Ana wind event. This was largely because Los Angeles was not experiencing drought at that time. But in the case of the 2025 event, severe drought was in place (Fig. 1).

Spells of dangerous fire weather will continue into next week

There’s no immediate end in sight for the bone-dry conditions and periods of strong Santa Ana winds plaguing coastal Southern California. The most intense winds from Wednesday have slackened, but the overall pattern — a strong upper-level high over the eastern Pacific, and energy diving southward through California, pushing winds downslope and offshore — will stay in place well into next week. Not only will this keep the door closed for any major precipitation, but it will make it tougher to fight the ongoing fires and to address any new ones.

Critical fire-weather conditions are predicted to remain in place over coastal Southern California through early Friday, according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center. Winds could gust to 20-30 mph in the valleys and 40-60 mph at higher elevations, especially on Thursday night. After a brief break, another pulse of strong north to northeast winds is expected this weekend, and a more serious Santa Ana wind setup could develop on Monday and Tuesday. Forecasters at the National Weather Service office for the Los Angeles area were already noting next week’s setup in a forecast discussion on Thursday:

“This would be concerning with likely no rain expected and the Tuesday night-Wednesday time period being the fourth offshore event in the stretch. There is great concern that fire weather conditions could become exacerbated given the antecedent conditions, little rain across the area since the Spring of 2024, and another offshore wind event on top of all of what we have seen, so far. Residents are urged to stay tuned to latest information and remain vigilant in steps to protect your life and property.”

Figure 2. No rain is predicted for coastal Southern California through at least Wednesday, January 15, by two recent runs of the European (left) and GFS (right) forecast models. The official National Weather Service forecast also has no rain for the area through Wednesday. (Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com)

The intense fires are degrading air quality

The wildfires have created a large amount of smoke that is covering most of the Los Angeles metro area, bringing air pollution conditions in the red “Unhealthy” range, according to the latest maps from airnow.gov. The air quality should improve over the weekend as the winds drop and firefighters make progress containing the fires. However, a renewed round of northeasterly Santa Ana winds on Monday and Tuesday will blow smoke from the Eaton Fire over downtown Los Angeles, potentially interfering with the Los Angeles Rams NFL playoff game scheduled for Monday night. If you go out into the smoke, be sure to wear a well-fitting N95 mask.

2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #02

Sun, 12 Jan 2025 10:53:48 EST

A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, January 5, 2025 thru Sat, January 11, 2025.

This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if you spot any clear misses and/or have suggestions for additional categories, please let us know in the comments. Thanks!

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts

The Risks of Climate Change to the United States in the 21st Century CBO assesses how climate change will pose risks to the United States through its effects on economic activity, real estate and financial markets, human health, biodiversity, immigration, and national security. by Congressional Budget Office, Congressional Budget Office, December 19, 2024
Climate crisis `wreaking havoc` on Earth`s water cycle, report finds Global heating is supercharging storms, floods and droughts, affecting entire ecosystems and billions of people by Damian Carrington, The Guardian, Jan 06, 2025
Climate Change Is Making Plants Less Nutritious by Ellen Welti, New Hampshire Bulletin, Jan 02, 2025
From Snow to Heat, Extreme Weather Events Pose Outsized Risks for Food Delivery Workers As climate change worsens, the people delivering your food are increasingly exposed to heat, wildfire smoke and other dangerous weather events. by Kiley Price, Inside Climate News, Jan 07, 2025
The Unusually Strong Force Behind the Apocalyptic Fires in Los Angeles “This is not a typical Santa Ana.” by Umair Irfan, Vox, Inside Climate News, Jan 08, 2025
Where have all the species gone? Understanding climate change`s toll on nature Why land protection and climate action are both vital to the future of plants and animals. by James Arnott and Kaitlin Sullivan, Yale Climate Connections, Jan 09, 2025
Hottest year on record sent planet past 1.5C of heating for first time in 2024 Highest recorded temperatures supercharged extreme weather – with worse to come, EU data shows by Damian Carrington, The Guardian, Jan 10, 2025
State of the climate: 2024 sets a new record as the first year above 1.5C Last year was the hottest the Earth has experienced since the start of global temperature records in the mid-1800s – and likely for many thousands of years before. by Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, Jan 10, 2025
Climate change, not endangered species protection, is a big culprit in Los Angeles fires Recent drought has left the state vulnerable to wildfires. by Johani Carolina Ponce, Yale Climate Connections, Jan 10, 2025
‘We’re in a New Era’: How Climate Change Is Supercharging Disasters Extreme weather events — deadly heat waves, floods, fires and hurricanes — are the consequences of a warming planet, scientists say. by David Gelles and Austyn Gaffney, New York Times, Jan 10, 2025
2024 Hindsight To no-one’s surprise 2024 was the warmest year on record – and by quite a clear margin. by Gavin Schmidt, RealClimate, Jan 11, 2025
How the climate crisis fuels devastating wildfires: `We have tweaked nature and pissed it off` John Vaillant, the author of Fire Weather, explains why fires such as those in Los Angeles are different from those before by Victoria Namkung, Environment The Guardian, Jan 11, 2025

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Interactive: How the world is already adapting to climate change by Carbon Brief Staff, Carbon Brief, Jan 07, 2025
The promises and challenges of the Philippines` new climate-resilient city New Clark City is being built from scratch to withstand extreme weather. Will it be a beacon of hope or a greenwashed illusion? by Maggie Wang, Grist, Jan 08, 2025

Climate Policy and Politics

`They`ve heard so much wrong information`: Selling heat pumps across Germany`s political divide 'Going green'' means different things to different people. by Ajit Niranjan in Bautzen, The Guardian, Jan 03, 2025

Climate Science and Research

Exploring the drivers of modern global warming By using a simple climate model, we can disentangle greenhouse gases, aerosols, and natural forcings. by Zeke Hausfather, The Climate Brink, Jan 06, 2025

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science

Halley Froehlich, David Pellow, Joshua Schimel & Lisa Sideris: Climate Science Needs Facts, Not Opinions to Save Our Future by Halley Froehlich, David Pellow, Joshua Schimel and Lisa Sideris, Noozhawk, Jan 05, 2025
Spreading like wildfire: How Trump’s misinformation about water and fire in Los Angeles inflames the situation by Peter Gleick, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Jan 9, 2025
Taylor Sheridan’s ‘Landman’ needs less fossil fuel propaganda by Sammy Roth, Los Angeles Times, Jan 09, 2025

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions

Sabin 33 #10 - Will utility-scale solar farms destroy the value of nearby homes? by Bärbel Winkler, Skeptical Science, Jan 07, 2025
Offshore wind turbines aren’t louder than high winds or passing ships, no evidence they harm whales by Erin L. Meyer-Gutbrod & Rahul Rao, Science Feedback, Jan 9, 2025

Miscellaneous (Other)

2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #01 A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 29, 2024 thru Sat, January 4, 2025. by Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Skeptical Science, Jan 05, 2025
Why anger, anxiety and anguish are understandable psychological reactions to the climate crisis by Georgina Ramsay, Gareth Morgan, Lauren McGregor, The Conversation, Jan 06, 2025

If you happen upon recently published high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2 2025

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 17:03:27 EST

Open access notables

Large emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra, Torn et al., Nature Communications:

Climate warming may accelerate decomposition of Arctic soil carbon, but few controlled experiments have manipulated the entire active layer. To determine surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane under anticipated end-of-century warming, here we used heating rods to warm (by 3.8 °C) to the depth of permafrost in polygonal tundra in Utqia?vik (formerly Barrow), Alaska and measured fluxes over two growing seasons. We show that ecosystem respiration is ~30% higher in warmed plots than in control plots (0.99 μmol m−2 s−1 versus 0.67 μmol m−2 s−1, p < 0.0001, n = 79). Additionally, the observed temperature sensitivity (Q10 of 2.8) is higher than that imposed for soil in Earth system models or reported by arctic experiments warming only the surface. A shoulder-season warming experiment revealed that rapid snow melt, which is becoming a more common event, can result in large methane emissions that may have otherwise been oxidized to carbon dioxide. Thus, warming promotes greenhouse gas emissions from the whole, deepening active layer and may contribute to climate change amplification.

Accelerated Permafrost Thaw Linked to Rising River Temperature and Widening Channels, Zhao & Li, Geophysical Research Letters:

River-controlled permafrost dynamics are crucial for sediment transport, infrastructure stability, and carbon cycle, yet are not well understood under climate change. Leveraging remotely sensed datasets, in-situ hydrological observations, and physics-based models, we reveal overall warming and widening rivers across the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades, driving accelerated sub-river permafrost thaw. River temperature of a representative section (Tuotuohe River) on the central Tibetan Plateau, has increased notably (0.39°C/decade) from 1985 to 2017, facilitating heat transfer into the underlying permafrost via both convection and conduction. Consequently, the permafrost beneath rivers warms faster (0.37°C–0.66°C/decade) and has a ∼0.5 m thicker active layer than non-inundated permafrost (0.17°C–0.49°C/decade). With increasing river discharge, the inundated area expands laterally along the riverbed (16.4 m/decade), further accelerating permafrost thaw for previously non-inundated bars. Under future warmer and wetter climate, the anticipated intensification of sub-river permafrost degradation will pose risks to riverine infrastructure and amplify permafrost carbon release.

On the economic feasibility of tidal range power plants, Pappas et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science:

The potential energy associated with tides presents a sustainable energy resource that remains largely untapped. Uncertainties on the economic case of tidal range power plants are a known obstacle. Research on tidal range structures suggests energy yield may be maximized through operation strategy optimization, and that impacts can be mitigated through design optimization. While instructive, these perspectives alone are insufficient to support the feasibility of individual projects. We integrate operation optimization and hydrodynamic impact analyses within a cost evaluation framework for tidal range structures focusing on capital costs (CAPEX) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Once benchmarked against 11 historic proposal cost projections, we perform a redesign of 18 tidal power plants to deliver a comprehensive comparative basis across a diverse range of sites in the UK. Tidal power plant operation is simulated in regional shallow-water equation models, acknowledging tide variability. The cost evaluation framework demonstrates the impact of geospatial variations on key cost components. The redesign process indicates transformative implications in that equivalent and lower LCOE values can be achieved for designs at a substantially lower CAPEX. Given how the latter hinder development, we show how tidal range schemes could be far more economically feasible than commonly perceived.

Rethinking the “Levelized Cost of Energy”: A critical review and evaluation of the concept, Emblemsvåg, Energy Research & Social Science:

The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is frequently used for policymaking worldwide, modeling and in assessing the cost competitiveness of technologies, but its formulation is deceptively simple. The result is that many caveats are obscured, but they are important to understand so that LCOE calculations can become more accurate and communicated more correctly to avoid misleading policymakers and decisionmakers. The paper discusses the approach, and how a handful of influential and reputable organizations calculate and communicate the LCOE. The conclusion is that the introduction of variable renewable energy sources into the grid has made the LCOE questionable towards it initial purpose of providing a sound basis for comparison, and most reputed organizations fail to address the issues both computationally and in their communication. However, significant improvements to regain relevance can be made by using realistic assumptions as shown by presenting a reconceptualized version of LCOE and communicate the unsolved shortcomings to stakeholders.

The changing language and sentiment of conversations about climate change in Reddit posts over sixteen years, Fariello & Jemielniak, Communications Earth & Environment:

Here, we analyze 16 years of Reddit discussions, encompassing 11.5 billion posts, to examine how language surrounding climate change has evolved over time from 2005 to 2021. We applied sentiment analysis, polarity, subjectivity, and readability metrics to discussions of “global warming” and “climate change”. We found that the use of “climate change” surpassed “global warming” in 2013, with “climate change” associated with more negative sentiment and higher subjectivity. Additionally, we observed a decline in the proportion of climate-related discussions over time despite the increasing total number of posts. These findings suggest that public engagement with climate topics on Reddit is waning, and the choice of terminology significantly influences the tone and complexity of the discourse. Our results have important implications for how climate issues are communicated and perceived by the public.

Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information, Pfleiderer et al., Nature Geoscience:

Escalating impacts of climate change underscore the risks posed by crossing potentially irreversible Earth and socioecological system thresholds and adaptation limits. However, limitations in the provision of actionable climate information may hinder an anticipatory response. Here we suggest a reversal of the traditional impact chain methodology as an end-user focused approach linking specific climate risk thresholds, including at the local level, to emissions pathways. We outline the socioeconomic and value judgement dimensions that can inform the identification of such risk thresholds. The applicability of the approach is highlighted by three examples that estimate the required CO2 emissions constraints to avoid critical levels of health-related heat risks in Berlin, fire weather in Portugal and glacier mass loss in High Mountain Asia. We argue that linking risk threshold exceedance directly to global emissions benchmarks can aid the understanding of the benefits of stringent emissions reductions for societies and local decision-makers.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Fueling the crisis. Climate consequences of the 2021 infrastructure law, Salerno et al., Transporation for America

In November 15, 2021, President Joe Biden signed the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) into law. The IIJA included a five-year transportation authorization for U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) programs, plus a standalone infrastructure law representing the largest-ever infusion ($643 billion over five years) of federal funding for surface transportation, including highways, roads, and bridges. The White House hailed the IIJA as “a once-in-a-generation investment in our nation’s infrastructure and competitiveness,” along with making lofty promises that it would “repair and rebuild our roads and bridges with a focus on climate change mitigation, resilience, equity, and safety for all users.” Three years into this investment of infrastructure dollars, has that turned out to be the case? The authors extrapolate that states’ federal formula-funded investments made over the course of the IIJA could cumulatively increase emissions by nearly 190 million metric tonnes of emissions over baseline levels through 2040 from added driving. This is the emission equivalent of 500 natural gas-fired power plants or nearly 50 coal-fired power plants running for a year.“

Europe's state of water 2024. The need for improved water resilience, European Environment Agency

Europe's water is under significant pressure, presenting serious challenges to water security, now and in the future. As such, Europe urgently needs to improve its resilience and ensure sustainable freshwater supplies for people and the environment. Water stress is already occurring in Europe. It affects 20% of Europe's territory and 30% of the population every year, figures that are likely to increase in the future due to climate change. As climate change unfolds in Europe, managing flood risk affordably and sustainably will become increasingly important. Intense rainfall has already increased in parts of Europe, leading to floods and growing flood risks. Flooding affects human well-being and ecosystems, with potential loss of life and significant economic losses.

148 articles in 51 journals by 1047 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Changes in Teleconnection Patterns and Land–Atmosphere Coupling Amplify the Spring–Early Summer Heatwaves Over Southwestern China, Zheng et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8732

Changes in urban heat island intensity with background temperature and humidity and their associations with near-surface thermodynamic processes, Park et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102191

Potential impacts of marine fuel regulations on an Arctic stratocumulus case and its radiative response, Escusa dos Santos et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-119-2025

Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown, Su et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x

Observations of climate change, effects

20^th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442

Accelerated Permafrost Thaw Linked to Rising River Temperature and Widening Channels, Zhao & Li, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112752

Accelerated River Meander Migration on the Tibetan Plateau Caused by Permafrost Thaw, Sha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111536

Canadian forests are more conducive to high-severity fires in recent decades, Wang et al., Science 10.1126/science.ado1006

Half-day (daytime and nighttime) precipitation extremes in China: Changes and attribution from 1981 to 2022, Han et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104696

The Impact of Snowoff Timing and Associated Atmospheric Drivers on the Alaska Wildfire Season, Bieniek et al., Earth Interactions Open Access 10.1175/ei-d-24-0001.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Spatial bias in placement of citizen and conventional weather stations and their impact on urban climate research: A case study of the Urban Heat Island effect in Canada, Sakthivel & Sengupta, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102280

The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System at Environment and Climate Change Canada (MIDAS v3.9.1), Buehner et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained Projections, Cheng et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112848

An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20^th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Summertime Tropospheric Ozone in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights from Meteorological and Air Quality Modeling, Rezaei et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121036

Atmospheric River Detection Under Changing Seasonality and Mean-State Climate: ARTMIP Tier 2 Paleoclimate Experiments, Rush et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042222

More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21^st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2

Projected changes in African easterly wave activity due to climate change, Akinsanola et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01981-9

Simulated Antarctic sea ice expansion reconciles climate model with observation, Liu, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-024-00881-1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Land-surface-physics-based downscaling versus conventional dynamical downscaling for high-resolution urban climate change information: The case study of two cities, Xue et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102228

Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO₂-equivalence metrics debate, Arriolabengoa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5

Multi-objective observational constraint of tropical Atlantic and Pacific low-cloud variability narrows uncertainty in cloud feedback, Wu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53985-w

Novel climate analysis methods applied to the Australian ESCI projections data, Dowdy & King, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1492228

Cryosphere & climate change

Future winter snowfall and extreme snow events in the Pyrenees, Bonsoms et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107912

Northern Hemisphere sea ice variability in a transient CGCM simulation of the past 2.6 Ma, Mandal et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55327-2

Smoother sea ice with fewer pressure ridges in a more dynamic Arctic, Krumpen et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02199-5

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Asynchronicity of deglacial permafrost thawing controlled by millennial-scale climate variability, Yan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55184-z

Global Warming and Equatorial Atlantic Paleoceanographic Changes During Early Eocene Carbon Cycle Perturbation V, Kegel et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2024pa004913

Rapid rise in atmospheric CO₂ marked the end of the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age, Jurikova et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01610-2

Response of atmospheric CO₂ changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636

Spatiotemporal Synchrony of Climate and Fire Occurrence Across North American Forests (1750–1880), Margolis et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.13937

The deterioration and collapse of late Permian marine ecosystems and the end-Permian mass extinction: A global view, He et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104971

Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum, Lu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-55888-w

Urbanization effects on temperature: 1826–1850, Vitaliano, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102196

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Biogeophysical Radiative Forcings of Large-Scale Afforestation in Europe Are Highly Localized and Dominated by Surface Albedo Change, Bright et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112739

Cellular and genetic responses of Phaeodactylum tricornutum to seawater acidification and copper exposure, Chen et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106928

Climate change drives reduced biocontrol of the invasive spongy moth, Liu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02204-x

Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century-Scale Warming in an End-To-End California Current Ecosystem Model, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70021

Coral histology reveals consistent declines in tissue integrity during a marine heatwave despite differences in bleaching severity, Kruse et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18654

Differential temperature responses of diurnal and nocturnal leaf respiration in four alpine herbaceous species, Zheng et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110385

Diverging responses of terrestrial ecosystems to water stress after disturbances, Liu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02191-z

Even protected seaweeds must face a warming ocean: Sea surface temperatures trigger tissue bleaching and breakdown in the unique giant Irish moss (Chondrus crispus), Gibbons et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106907

Fish reproductive phenology shifts with increasing temperature and year, Koenigbauer et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2024.0240

From holocene to anthropogenic impact: Surpassing coral's pH up-regulation capacity under ocean acidification, Kang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104683

Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China, Wu et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005147

High- and low-temperature stress responses of Porites lutea from the relatively high-latitude region of the South China Sea, Huang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106858

Increasing midday depression of mangrove photosynthesis with heat and drought stresses, Zhu & Zhu, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110372

Influence of land cover change on atmospheric organic gases, aerosols, and radiative effects, Vella et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-243-2025

Long-term warming and acidification interaction drives plastic acclimation in the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106901

Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21^st century, Messmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01731-x

Molecular Response to CO₂-driven Ocean Acidification in the Larvae of the Sea Urchin Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus: Evidence from Comparative Transcriptome Analyses, Yin et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.106951

Mortality Patterns and Recovery Challenges in Millepora alcicornis after mass bleaching event on Northeast Brazilian Reefs, Vidal et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106864

Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855

Predictability of abrupt shifts in dryland ecosystem functioning, Bernardino et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02201-0

Recurrent marine heatwaves compromise the reproduction success and long-term viability of shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian Eunicella singularis, Sarda et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106822

Spatial heterogeneity of tree-growth responses to climate across temperate forests in Northeast Asia, Altmanová et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110355

Species richness in the Northeast US Continental Shelf ecosystem: Climate-driven trends and perturbations, Friedland et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000557

The changing nature of future Arctic marine heatwaves and its potential impacts on the ecosystem, Gou et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02224-7

The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO₂ and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853

To the top or into the dark? Relationships between elevational and canopy cover distribution shifts in mountain forests, Shan & Zhu Kvedar Sutar Lehmann Grossmann Hunter Graling Kirschner Chen , Physical Review D Open Access 10.1103/physrevd.62.014028

Tree Lifespans in a Warming World: Unravelling the Universal Trade-Off Between Growth and Lifespan in Temperate Forests, Liu et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70023

Tropical cyclone risk for global ecosystems in a changing climate, Kropf et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02194-w

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A millennium of cold and humid climate decreased carbon accumulation in the subtropical monsoon peatland, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-01993-z

Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels, Maxwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01795-9

Biomass carbon emissions from nickel mining have significant implications for climate action, Mervine et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55703-y

Climate change and terrigenous inputs decrease the efficiency of the future Arctic Ocean’s biological carbon pump, Oziel et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02233-6

Effects of extreme temperature events on carbon fluxes in different ecosystems in the Heihe River Basin, China, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110380

Emerging carbon dioxide hotspots in East Asia identified by a top-down inventory, Xia et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01991-7

GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO₂ recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598

Heat and Drought Events Alter Biogenic Capacity to Balance CO2 Budget in South-Western Europe, Segura et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.171136782.20335714/v1

Interactive effects of management and temperature anomalies on CO₂ fluxes recorded over 18 years in a temperate upland grassland system, Winck et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110343

Large emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra, Torn et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54990-9

Methane-rich gas emissions from natural geologic seeps can be chemically distinguished from anthropogenic leaks, Molofsky et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01990-8

Modelling extensive green roof CO2 exchanges in the TEB urban canopy model, Mirebeau et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-233

Possible influence of low latitude wetland area changes on the Holocene global atmospheric methane concentration trend, Song et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104655

Predicting CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes and their seasonal variations in a subarctic wetland under two shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110359

Seasonal CO₂ amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Study of atmospheric CH₄, CO₂ and N₂O at Waliguan WMO/GAW global station: Time series trend, seasonal variation, and attribution analysis association with meteorological factors, Wei et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120994

Substantial and overlooked greenhouse gas emissions from deep Arctic lake sediment, Freitas et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01614-y

The presence of the Tibetan Plateau lowers atmospheric CO₂ levels via the Atlantic-Pacific carbon seesaw, Du et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104681

Tradeoffs between thinning treatments and rotation periods of planted Larix olgensis forests: a perspective from carbon balance, Lin et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1342538

Zooming into Berlin: tracking street-scale CO2 emissions based on high-resolution traffic modeling using machine learning, Anjos & Meier, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1461656

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Advancing the frontiers of CO₂ geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906

Perspectives and challenges of marine carbon dioxide removal, Oschlies et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1506181

Predicting Climate Mitigation Through Carbon Burial in Blue Carbon Ecosystems—Challenges and Pitfalls, Kristensen et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70022

Decarbonization

Different technology packages for aluminium smelters worldwide to deliver the 1.5 °C target, Tan et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02193-x

Enhancing Urban Thermal Environment and Energy Sustainability With Temperature-Adaptive Radiative Roofs, Zhang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005246

Life cycle assessment of electric and gasoline moto-taxis in Yucatán, México: Impact of battery technology and social considerations, Polanco Vásquez et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101614

Mapping species of greatest conservation need and solar energy potential in the arid Southwest for future sustainable development, Fleckenstein et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18568

On the economic feasibility of tidal range power plants, Pappas et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspa.2023.0867

Solar energy resource availability under extreme and historical wildfire smoke conditions, Corwin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54163-8

Geoengineering climate

Impacts on Indian Agriculture Due To Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention Using Agroclimatic Indices, Grant et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005262

Particle fluxes by subtropical pelagic communities under ocean alkalinity enhancement, Suessle et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-71-2025

Solar geoengineering research faces geopolitical deadlock, McLaren & Corry, Science 10.1126/science.adr9237

Climate change communications & cognition

The changing language and sentiment of conversations about climate change in Reddit posts over sixteen years, Fariello & Jemielniak, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01974-8

The influence of climate change perception, experience and emotions on youths’ participation in agriculture and agribusiness, Asare-Nuamah et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2448180

Worry's Clout: Concern, not positive affectivity, drives climate activism, Bechtoldt & Schermelleh-Engel, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102517

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Biochar-amended soil can further sorb atmospheric CO₂ for more carbon sequestration, Gui et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01985-5

Conceptualizing Coproduced Climate Research as Care: Practical Lessons Learned With Women Farmland-Owners in the Central Midwest United States, Shenk et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70005

Crop productivity under heat stress: a structural analysis of light use efficiency models, Lai et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110376

Crossing the river by feeling the stones: Leveraging livelihood capital and cooperation to boost farmers’ engagement in carbon markets, Ma et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114474

Delaying sowing time and increasing sowing rate with plastic mulching can enhance wheat yield and water use efficiency under future climate change, Wu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110383

Forest fertilization transiently increases soil CO₂ efflux in young Norway spruce stands in Sweden, Håkansson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110287

Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China^,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540

Maximum carbon uptake potential through progressive management of plantation forests in Guangdong Province, China, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01977-5

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Perceptions of climatic variability among millet farmers: insights from tribal communities in the Kolli Hills, Tamil Nadu, South India, Chapke et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1506084

Research progress on the impact of climate change on wheat production in China, Fan et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18569

Seasonal patterns of CO₂ exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil, Bianchini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110324

Short-term warming supports mineral-associated carbon accrual in abandoned croplands, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55765-y

Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of farmland carbon emissions in Guangdong Province, China, Chao et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1515571

The appeal of climate program framing depends on climate beliefs: a conjoint survey experiment among US agricultural producers, Hunt & Hillis, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2447486

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Actual and Potential Trend Analysis Under Climate Change Using Risk Sen's Slope (RSS) in Western Black Sea Basin in Türkiye, Keskin et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8703

Human-Induced Climate Change Intensifies Extreme Precipitation Events in Central China's Urban Areas, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111818

Present Variability and Future Change in Onset and Cessation of the Rainy Season Over Peru, De la Cruz et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8700

Projected Effects of Climate Change on Meteorological Droughts over China: A Study Based on High-Resolution NEX-GDDP Data, Cao et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0178.1

Rainfall-Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection, Yang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042323

Shifting Patterns of Ethiopian MAM Rainfall: Effects of Sea Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation (1981–2022), Waza et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8743

Climate change economics

How does China respond to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism? An approach of global trade analysis, Chen et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114486

Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55332-5

Renewable energy financing in the Pacific Island Countries, Jena & Chaturvedi, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101642

Rethinking the “Levelized Cost of Energy”: A critical review and evaluation of the concept, Emblemsvåg, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103897

The climate-economic model of 27 EU countries at the NUTS 3 level, Hada?ová et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1439927

Turning reparations lessons into insights for the fund for responding to loss and damage, Klinsky & Moffett, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2446523

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Banning new gas boilers as a no-regret mitigation option, Escribe & Vivier, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55427-z

Can meaningful consultation and consent advance fair and equitable large-scale renewable energy development? Reflections from India, Sharma & Aggarwal, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101613

Crafting the perfect policy combination: Exploring the synergistic effects of dual-pilot energy policies on urban carbon emission efficiency, Peng & Gao, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102260

Decarbonizing residential buildings in the United States: A comparative analysis of households and construction professionals, Casquero-Modrego et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103908

Energy and socioeconomic system transformation through a decade of IPCC-assessed scenarios, van de Ven et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02198-6

Energy security and the green transition, Joi?a et al., Energies Open Access pdf 10.3390/en16093849

How environmental patents, education, and energy transition impact greenhouse gases: evidence from E7 countries, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1514728

Learning from practice: Expanding the OECD’s impact evaluation criteria based on experiences of subnational climate assemblies in France, Spain and Portugal, Lancha-Hernández & Becerril-Viera, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103978

Promoting energy-sharing communities: Why and how? Lessons from a Belgian pilot project, Viadere, Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114483

Retrofit information challenges and potential solutions: Perspectives of households, retrofit professionals and local policy makers in the United Kingdom, Toshie Kakinuma, Perspectives of New Music Open Access 10.7757/persnewmusi.49.2.0232

The incoherence of emissions accounting principles and Net-Zero targets in the buildings sector, Al Shawa, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2446521

The vertical policy harmonization indices: assessing the gap between climate mitigation pledges and policies, Baker et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2443482

Wasted expertise: Why retrofit should include residents, Furman & Hadjri, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103894

What to expect when you're expecting engagement: Delivering procedural justice in large-scale solar energy deployment, Hoesch et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103893

\Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Adapting Latin American and Caribbean airports to a changing climate: Impacts, challenges and solutions, Burbidge et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100684

How well are universities adapting to climate change? Insights from Australia, Denham et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2447479

Institutional dependencies shape adaptation pathways for local service providers: A study of US water utilities responding to climatic stressors, Smialek et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103982

Integration of equity into climate-related plans in the U.S., Helmke-Long et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2445170

Learnings From the Co-Development of Priority Risks in Australia's First National Climate Risk Assessment, Lin et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70004

Perceived climate change impacts and adaptation responses in ten African mountain regions, Cuni-Sanchez et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02221-w

Strategic retreat: Balancing risk and societal goals in land-use planning, Archie et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103960

Climate change impacts on human health

Future changes in population exposure to intensified heatwaves over three major urban agglomerations in China based on Excess Heat Factor, Zhou et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.009

Impact of irrigation on farmworker’s heat stress in California differs by season and during the day and night, Parajuli et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01959-7

Climate change impacts on human culture

Academic travel from above and below: Institutions, ideas, and interests shaping contemporary practices, Theeuwes et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103890

Other Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Beyond fuel: the case for a wider perspective on shipping and climate change, Bullock et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2447474

Compound weather and climate extremes in the Asian region: science-informed recommendations for policy, Krishnan et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1504475

Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information, Pfleiderer et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01597-w

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Fueling the crisis. Climate consequences of the 2021 infrastructure law, Salerno et al., Transporation for America

In November 15, 2021, President Joe Biden signed the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) into law. The IIJA included a five-year transportation authorization for U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) programs, plus a standalone infrastructure law representing the largest-ever infusion ($643 billion over five years) of federal funding for surface transportation, including highways, roads, and bridges. The White House hailed the IIJA as “a once-in-a-generation investment in our nation’s infrastructure and competitiveness,” along with making lofty promises that it would “repair and rebuild our roads and bridges with a focus on climate change mitigation, resilience, equity, and safety for all users.” Three years into this investment of infrastructure dollars, has that turned out to be the case? The authors extrapolate that states’ federal formula-funded investments made over the course of the IIJA could cumulatively increase emissions by nearly 190 million metric tonnes of emissions over baseline levels through 2040 from added driving. This is the emission equivalent of 500 natural gas-fired power plants or nearly 50 coal-fired power plants running for a year.“

Europe's state of water 2024. The need for improved water resilience, European Environment Agency

Europe's water is under significant pressure, presenting serious challenges to water security, now and in the future. As such, Europe urgently needs to improve its resilience and ensure sustainable freshwater supplies for people and the environment. Water stress is already occurring in Europe. It affects 20% of Europe's territory and 30% of the population every year, figures that are likely to increase in the future due to climate change. As climate change unfolds in Europe, managing flood risk affordably and sustainably will become increasingly important. Intense rainfall has already increased in parts of Europe, leading to floods and growing flood risks. Flooding affects human well-being and ecosystems, with potential loss of life and significant economic losses.

Guidance on incorporating building and transportation electrification into long-term load forecasts, Murphy et al., Lawrence Berkely National Laboratory

The authors present a framework to develop long-term electricity load forecasts that account for the impacts of building and transportation electrification. The framework identifies key modeling decisions and provides examples from recent Berkeley Lab technical assistance to two municipal utilities: Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) and Fort Collins Utilities. For each step of the framework, the authors provide guiding questions, suggestions, and examples from Berkeley Lab technical assistance projects.

Kernspaltung, Erdgas, Geothermie, Kernfusion Welche Rolle spielen Grundlastkraftwerke in Zukunft? (Nuclear fission, natural gas, geothermal energy, nuclear fusion What role will baseload power plants play in the future?), Stöcker e tal, Leopoldina, Acatech, and The Union of the German Academies of Sciences and Humanities

...analysiert, ob und inwieweit es vorteilhaft für die deutsche und europäische Energieversorgung ist, Grundlastkraftwerke in einem umstrukturierten Energiesystem einzusetzen. Außerdem betrachten die Expert*innen folgende Fragen: Was zeichnet ein Grundlastkraftwerk aus? Welche Technologien kommen für CO2-arme Grundlastkraftwerke infrage? Sind diese Art Kraftwerke für eine sichere Energieversorgung notwendig? Wie würden sie die Gesamtkosten der Energieversorgung beeinflussen? Und wie würden sie das Energiesystem verändern?

The authors analyzed whether and to what extent it is beneficial for the German and European energy supply to use baseload power plants in a restructured energy system. The experts also consider the following questions: What characterizes a baseload power plant? What technologies are suitable for low-CO2 baseload power plants? Are these types of power plants necessary for a secure energy supply? How would they affect the overall costs of energy supply? And how would they change the energy system?

Recycling Wind Energy Systems in the United States, Christoffel et al., National Renewable Energy Labopratory

the authors performed a comprehensive life cycle and techno-economic assessment of end-of-life management pathways of U.S. wind turbines and systems. They evaluated the technical, environmental, and economic indicators for different materials, designs, and recycling technologies. The authors show that the United States could maximize the recyclability of wind turbines by improving end-of-life decommissioning and sorting practice; ensuring strategic siting of recycling facilities; expanding and improving recovery and recycling infrastructure; substituting hard-to-recycle or critical materials with more easily separable and affordable materials, or improved component designs and manufacturing techniques; developing of modular component designs; optimizing properties of recovered materials for second-life applications; and ensuring greater access for the U.S. recycling infrastructure to use waste streams from the wind energy sector, and the equipment required to disassemble wind energy components.

Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends: 2024 Update Publication Type, Forrester et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors summarize recent trends in retail electricity price levels and price drivers in the United States. This report is intended to serve as a reference document for the diverse set of decision-makers impacted by changes in retail electricity prices and to provide a factual basis for assessing recent changes in retail electricity prices and key underlying drivers. National, regional, and state trends are reported for 2019 through 2023 using publicly-available data for average retail electricity prices, retail sales, and utility revenues; utility capital expenditures, operations and maintenance costs, and fuel and purchased power costs' and retail electricity sales impacts from behind-the-meter resources

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.

Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

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Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

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Exploring the drivers of modern global warming

Wed, 8 Jan 2025 16:34:45 EST

This is a re-post from the Climate Brink

Global surface temperatures have risen around 1.3C since the preindustrial (1850-1900) period as a result of human activity.1 However, this aggregate number masks a lot of underlying factors that contribute to global surface temperature changes over time.

These include CO2, which is the primary driver of long-term warming, as well as non-CO2 greenhouse gases like CH4, N2O, and halocarbons. But it also includes planet-cooling aerosols that have masked a sizable portion of the warming of our greenhouse gas emissions to-date. Rounding out the list are other anthropogenic factors (tropospheric ozone, albedo changes due to land use change), and natural forcings (primarily volcanic eruptions and variations in solar output).

To disentangle the respective contributions of each of these requires a climate model. Here I will be using the latest version of FaIR, a reduced complexity climate model that has been used extensively by the community for assessing global-level changes. The implementation of FaIR used here is specifically designed to reproduce both observed climate change since pre-industrial and assessed climate metrics from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This approach has the advantage of providing robust uncertainties that reflect the range of relevant parameters (e.g. climate sensitivity, carbon cycle feedback strength, ocean heat uptake rates, etc.) in-line with the ranges in the AR6.

However, unlike the climate simulations featured in the AR6, which only use climate forcings based on real-world observations through 2014 and explore different scenarios (SSPs) thereafter, these simulations use observationally-informed forcing estimate through the end of 2023 from Forster et al 2024. This has the advantage of allowing us to explore how actual changes in real-world emissions (e.g. including factors like rapid Chinese aerosol declines and low-sulfur shipping rules) have impacted global temperatures.

The figure below shows the output of 841 different emission-driven FaIR model runs across the range of constrained parameter values. It simulates both the global surface temperature response to all forcings (in yellow), as well as estimates of each forcing in isolation (calculated by comparing the difference between runs containing all forcings and those excluding one type of forcing).

Observed global surface temperatures since 1850 (black), along with modeled temperatures (yellow) and separate temperature components (other colors).

Note that while the uncertainties of some individual elements (e.g. greenhouse gases and aerosols) are larger than those of all forcings, some of these cancel out in the aggregate estimate due to correlations between the two. For example, scenarios with higher warming from greenhouse gas emissions also tend to have higher cooling from aerosols.

The black line in the figure shows observed global surface temperatures. While it generally remains within the range of uncertainty in the model estimate, there is significant year-to-year natural variability driven primarily by El Nino and La Nina events that is not present in the average of all the FaIR runs.

Disentangling the drivers of recent warming

Having simulated the drivers of warming over time, we can use this data to explore in more details the drivers of changes in global temperatures over different time periods. For simplicity I will be showing the median (50th percentile) estimate of the contribution of each factor, but this approach could easily be used to show uncertainties as well.

First, lets look at what is driving changes between preindustrial (~0C) and 2024 (~1.3C). This is more or less whats being shown between the beginning and end of the prior graph, but broken down into a bit more detail. Specifically, I’m separating out methane (CH4) from other greenhouse gases, and ordering the bars based on the size of their (positive) impact on global temperatures.

Waterfall diagram showing components of global temperature change between 1850 and 2024.

Here we see that since 1850, CO2 has contributed around 1.1C warming, CH4 contributed ~0.3C warming2, other greenhouse gases ~0.3C warming, and other anthropogenic factors ~0.2C. Aerosols have cooled the climate by around 0.6C, while natural variability has only warmed the planet by around 0.05C.

If we look at the “modern warming period” after 1970, the role of methane warming and aerosol cooling are relatively smaller, as both atmospheric methane concentrations and aerosol emissions increased more rapidly in the earlier parts of the century than in the period since 1970.

Components of global temperature change between 1970 and 2024.

Since 1970, CO2 contributed ~0.7C warming, other greenhouse gases ~0.3C, CH4 ~0.1C, and other anthropogenic forcings ~0.1C. Aerosols cooled the climate by around 0.1C, while and natural variability had effectively no impact on the difference between 1970 and 2024 temperatures.

Finally, we can look at the drivers of warming the world has experienced over the past decade (2015-2024). Note that the y-axis in the figure below is narrower than in the prior two graphs to zoom in on changes over the past decade, and the axis does not begin at zero.

Components of global temperature change between 2015 and 2024.

Over the past decade, CO2 contributed the bulk of greenhouse gas warming at 0.14C, with other greenhouse gases, CH4, and other anthropogenic collectively only warming the planet 0.05C. Due to rapid declines in emissions of planet cooling aerosols (due in large part to declining sulfur emissions from China and international shipping), the planet warmed by around 0.06C over the past decade from greenhouse gas warming previously masked by aerosols. Finally, natural variability had a small (0.03C) cooling effect on the past decade due to the timing of volcanic eruptions and the solar cycle.

While the climate forcings modeled here affect long-term temperature changes, the temperatures we observe in the real world are also effected by El Nino, La Nina, and other modes of short-term natural variability. This does not add any net energy to the Earth system – and thus cannot drive long-term climate changes – but does have a large impact on individual years or even decadal-scale trends (e.g. in cases where a decade starts or ends with a strong El Nino or La Nina event).

Whats affecting the rate of warming?

In addition to looking at changes between any two years, we can also use these climate model runs to asses the rate of warming over time (excluding unforced short-term variability).

The figure below shows the rate of warming (in degrees C per decade) for each 10-year period between 1905-1914 and 2015-2024. I’ve initially excluded natural forcings from the figure as they result in large changes in decadal trends around major volcanic eruptions.

Analysis of decadal warming rates (black line) as the sum of different contributing factors (colored areas) between 1905 and 2024.

We can draw a few interesting conclusions from this figure:

The rate of warming increased between the start of the century and 1970, remained relatively flat at just below 0.2C per decade from 1970 to 2005, and has accelerated to ~0.25C per decade over the past decade.
The primary driver of this recent acceleration in warming has been declining aerosol emissions. Aerosols have flipped from reducing the rate of decadal warming (as emissions increased) to increasing the rate of warming (as emissions decreased) after 2005.
The rate of warming from CO2 has increased over time as emissions have increased, though it has plateaued over the past decade as CO2 emissions have plateaued. However, warming from all greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, and others) has been relatively flat since 1970. This is primarily due to the declining contribution of other greenhouse gases to additional warming, likely associated with the phaseout of halocarbons after the Montreal protocol.

Its important to note that this figure shows the rate of warming rather than total warming (as the prior figures have shown). A slowdown in the rate of warming from a specific forcing (e.g. halocarbons post-Montreal or CH4 in the 1990s-2010s) still means that the total amount of warming forcing is increasing over time, just more slowly.

Finally, the figure below shows the drivers of decadal warming including natural forcings (e.g. volcanoes and solar output). Volcanoes create a saw-tooth pattern in the resulting decadal warming rates, suppressing the rate of warming in decades that end with the volcanic eruption (and its associated short-term cooling) and enhancing the rate of warming in decades that start out cool and recover from the eruption.

Same as the prior figure, but including natural variability.

1 While individual years are higher or lower as a result of internal variability, our best estimate of the longer-term forced response (and the human contribution to warming) remains around 1.3C, varying between 1.2C and 1.4C across different groups.

2 It is worth noting that a portion of other anthropogenic warming (and some of the “other GHGs” warming) can be attributed to indirect effects of methane emissions, which also enhance tropospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and affect N2O forcing. Thats why the version of this figure in the IPCC AR6 has warming from CH4 at ~0.5C warming, compared to ~0.3C here.

Climate news to watch in 2025

Mon, 6 Jan 2025 15:00:03 EST

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections

Much like 2023, many climate and energy records were broken in 2024.

It was Earth’s hottest year on record by a wide margin, breaking the previous record that was set just last year by an even larger margin. Human-caused climate-warming pollution and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations reached new heights. But the record deployment of clean technology solutions in 2024 prevented emissions from rising even higher yet.

Scientists found many other planetary vital signs also at record levels, including ocean acidity, sea level rise, ice cover, heat-related mortality rates, meat production, and loss of forest cover. But they also noted that the level of global deforestation due directly to human activities in places like the Brazilian Amazon is declining, fewer organizations are investing in fossil fuel company stocks, and more countries are charging a price for the climate-warming emissions from an increasing number of economic sectors.

In short, 2024 saw a mixed bag of worrying climate records combined with some advances in policy solutions. But the U.S. election results narrowed the window of possible climate progress in the coming years.

2024 was a hot year for the climate – and clean energy

When the final data is in, 2024 will easily break the record for Earth’s hottest annual average global surface temperature. That record was set in 2023, which easily broke the previous record set in 2016 and tied in 2020. Climate change also played a role in worsening many extreme weather disasters in 2024.

1985–2024 global average surface temperature categorized by years with a significant La Niña cooling influence (blue), El Niño warming influence (red), neutral conditions (black), and those with a cooling influence from a recent large volcanic eruption (orange triangles). (Data: NASA. Graphic: Dana Nuccitelli.)

The exceptional heat of the past two years is mainly due to the long-term global warming trend, plus an El Niño event that drew warm water to the surface of the Pacific Ocean. But climate scientists are also investigating what role changes in cloud cover played in these past two record-shattering hot years and whether declining pollution due to cleaner shipping is influencing that cloud formation.

And while climate pollution caused by burning fossil fuels reached record levels, surpassing 37 billion metric tons while pushing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to a new height of 422.5 parts per million, those emissions increased by less than 1% compared to the previous year. That’s due to a record deployment of clean technologies around the world.

For example, electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids accounted for over 20% of new car sales globally in 2024, up from 18% last year. In China, half of new car sales were electric over the past five months, and adoption is growing fast. Solar panel deployments also continued to set records globally, and especially in China, in large part because in most cases they’ve simply become cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.

Global solar power capacity additions over the past four years. (Image credit: Ember / CC-BY-4.0)

The U.S. climate policy outlook for 2025

In the United States, President-elect Trump and a Republican Congress will take office in January. Eight years ago, this same political structure led to the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and a rollback of over 100 climate and environmental regulations. The country’s climate pollution rose slightly during the ensuing three years until the COVID pandemic struck.

This time around, U.S. emissions are declining with the help of financial incentives for clean technology in the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, which Democrats passed in 2022. Some of the law’s provisions may survive the next Congress. About two-thirds of new clean manufacturing and energy projects built and planned since the IRA was signed into law are in districts represented by Republicans, as well as more than three-quarters of investment dollars and jobs, according to data compiled by the nonpartisan group E2.

That’s primarily because new manufacturing and energy facilities require large tracts of affordable, available land, which are usually located in rural areas, whose residents tend to skew more politically conservative. Republican-led states also tend to lure these kinds of business investments through generous tax breaks. Were the IRA or some of its key provisions revoked, executives running many of these new facilities warn that they would have to lay off workers or close up shop altogether.

As a result, many congressional Republicans support preserving some IRA provisions.

“You’ve got to use a scalpel and not a sledgehammer, because there’s a few provisions in there that have helped overall,” House Speaker Mike Johnson recently said.

An analysis by energy modelers at Princeton conducted after the IRA was signed into law also found that around half of its potential clean energy deployment and climate pollution reductions could be lost if the U.S. doesn’t build electrical transmission infrastructure fast enough to connect new clean energy projects to the power grid. As a result, permitting reform has become a hot topic among climate policy wonks seeking to speed up that process. Lawmakers narrowly failed to agree on a bipartisan permitting reform deal this year, but negotiations could begin anew in 2025.

President-elect Trump has also pledged to institute expansive tariffs once he takes office. In a bill called the Foreign Pollution Fee Act, Republican Senators Bill Cassidy, a Republican of Louisiana, and Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, have proposed to implement a carbon tariff on imports of a few key materials into the country.

Analyses by the Niskanen Center and Climate Leadership Council found that American-made products tend to produce less climate pollution than those made in many other key countries like China and Russia. A carbon tariff would put a price on the extra carbon content of imported products above the average carbon content of the domestic equivalent. This would both level the playing field for American products in competition with dirtier and cheaper imports and create an incentive for other countries to decarbonize their industries to avoid paying the U.S. carbon tariff.

Republican policymakers also tend to be open to carbon capture solutions. Those include collecting carbon pollution from smokestacks before it enters the atmosphere or removing it from the atmosphere through either technological or natural means. America’s aging forests are starting to remove less carbon from the atmosphere each year. Forestry or other natural climate solutions, which could be included in the 2025 Farm Bill, thus offer some potential for bipartisan climate progress.

One key story to watch starting in 2025: If the new U.S. leadership shrinks away from climate policies at a time when the rest of the world is rapidly shifting toward a green economy powered by clean technology, China could seize the opportunity to bolster its economic and geopolitical ambitions.

2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #01

Sun, 5 Jan 2025 10:24:50 EST

A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 29, 2024 thru Sat, January 4, 2025.

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts

A year of extreme weather that challenged billions Climate change has brought record-breaking heat this year, and with it extreme weather, from hurricanes to month-long droughts. by Esme Stellard, BBC News, Dec 29, 2024
Climate change is the worst. Here's just how bad it got this year. The big news in Earth science this year was all about climate change, with extreme weather, flooding and drought attributed to warming. Scientists also warned about much worse to come if we don't rein in carbon emissions. by Hannah Osborne, Livescience, Dec 27, 2024
2024`s most costly climate disasters killed 2,000 people and caused $229bn in damages, data shows Analysis of insurance payouts by Christian Aid reveals three-quarters of financial destruction occurred in US by Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, Dec 30, 2024
2024: A Year In Climate Change by Simon Clark, Youtube, Dec 30, 2024
`Moving to the mountaintops`: rising seas displace tens of thousands in Papua New Guinea Gulf province councillor says growing numbers are leaving, in what climate activist describes as a ‘humanitarian crisis’ by Rebecca Bush, The Guardian, Dec 31, 2024
Human-induced changes increasing amount of natural carbon released by Rod Minchin, Irish Examiner, Jan 01, 2025
Climate news to watch in 2025 2024 was a mixed bag for climate change. Here’s what’s on the horizon for 2025. by Dana Nuccitelli, Yale Climate Connections, Jan 02, 2025
`Ironic`: climate-driven sea level rise will overwhelm major oil ports, study shows Ports including in Saudi Arabia and the US projected to be seriously damaged by a metre of sea level rise by Damian Carrington, The Guardian, Jan 04, 2025

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

True Or False? Better Diesel Fuel Economy Is An Efficient Form Of Decarbonization How should we understand claims about better fuel efficiency being ''decarbonization?'' Here's a primer. by Carolyn Fortuna, CleanTechnica, Dec 30, 2024

Climate education and communication

`It isn`t a future thing.` Climate change is taking a toll on Canada`s lighthouses Climate change becomes visible on the shore of Canada by Michael MacDonald, Winnipeg Free Press, Dec 31, 2024

Climate Policy and Politics

Former EU environment chief warns against backsliding on climate crisis Virginijus Sinkevi?ius, a former environment commissioner, criticises bloc’s decision to delay deforestation law by Jennifer Rankin, The Guardian, Jan 01, 2025
At EPA, Trump`s second term is already having consequences EPA's climate mitigation actions are on the hit list. by Annie Snider and Alex Guillén, Politico, Jan 02, 2025
Trump’s OMB Pick Wants to Purge the Government of ‘Climate Fanaticism’ Re-meet the once and future director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought. by Jeva Lange, Heatmap, Nov. 23, 2024
Former Trump adviser finally admits climate change exists to justify threatened Greenland takeover by Gustaf Kilander, The Independent News, Dec 31, 2024
Scientists debate fleeing America because of Trump — or risk their research being censored “They use fear to silence us”: Two scientists express different strategies for surviving an anti-science agenda by Matthew Rozsa, Salon, Jan 3, 2025

Climate Science and Research

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #1 2025 Skeptical Science's weekly scan of newly published peer reviewed research on matters connected with climate change, plus numerous government and NGO reports addressing climate policy. by Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Skeptical Science, Jan 02, 2025

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science

The Cranky Uncle Game: A Way to Logic-Check Misinformation about Climate Change An article about debunking climate myths by Skeptical Science founder John Cook by John Cook, Skeptical Inquirer, Dec 30, 2024
Fact Briefs created in collaboration with Gigafact are now available in German by Bärbel Winkler, Skeptical Science, Dec 30, 2024

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions

Sabin 33 #9 - Will reliance on solar make the United States dependent on China and other countries? Although the United States still imports a majority of the solar panels it installs, domestic solar manufacturing is on the rise and likely to grow further as manufacturers open factories in the U.S. by Sabin Center Team, Skeptical Science, Dec 31, 2024

Miscellaneous (Other)

2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52 A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 22, 2024 thru Sat, December 28, 2024. by Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Skeptical Science, Dec 29, 2024
2024, a car crash for the climate. by Ella Gilbert, DrGilbz on Youtube, Dec 29, 2024
These Graphics Help Explain What Climate Change Looked Like in 2024 Plus, a few more that tell environmental stories in a fraught year. by Paul Horn, Inside Climate News, Dec 29, 2024
2024 in review - a bittersweet year for our team by Bärbel Winkler, Skeptical Science, Dec 30, 2024
The Year in Climate: Record Heat, an Election, a Push for Justice and Reasons for Hope 2024 was a year that might as well have been a decade. Here’s what happened, as documented by Inside Climate News reporters. by Dan Gearino, ICN Staff, Inside Climate News, Dec 30, 2024
2024 in review - a bittersweet year for our team The year 2024 at Skeptical Science has been bittersweet. We are incredibly proud of the progress we've made in debunking climate myths, thanks in large part to the tireless efforts of our late colleague John Mason. John passed away unexpectedly in September, leaving a huge void in our team. by Bärbel Winkler, Skeptical Science, Dec 30, 2024
The Climate Brink 2024 wrap up by Andrew Dessler and Zeke Hausfather, The Climate Brink, Dec 30, 2024

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #1 2025

Thu, 2 Jan 2025 17:03:50 EST

Open access notables

Why Misinformation Must Not Be Ignored, Ecker et al., American Psychologist:

Recent academic debate has seen the emergence of the claim that misinformation is not a significant societal problem. We argue that the arguments used to support this minimizing position are flawed, particularly if interpreted (e.g., by policymakers or the public) as suggesting that misinformation can be safely ignored. Here, we rebut the two main claims, namely that misinformation is not of substantive concern (a) due to its low incidence and (b) because it has no causal influence on notable political or behavioral outcomes. Through a critical review of the current literature, we demonstrate that (a) the prevalence of misinformation is nonnegligible if reasonably inclusive definitions are applied and that (b) misinformation has causal impacts on important beliefs and behaviors. Both scholars and policymakers should therefore continue to take misinformation seriously.

Recent ice melt above a mantle plume track is accelerating the uplift of Southeast Greenland, Weerdesteijn & Conrad Conrad, Communications Earth & Environment:

Around the periphery of the Greenland ice sheet, satellite-based observations of ground uplift record Earth’s response to past and recent unloading of Greenland’s ice mass. On the southeast coast, near the Kangerlussuaq glacier, rapid uplift exceeding 12 mm/yr cannot be explained using current layered Earth deformation models. Here we find that 3D models with a weakened Earth structure, consistent with the passage of Greenland over the Iceland plume, can explain the rapid uplift of Southeast Greenland. This uplift is dominated by a viscous response that is accelerated by the low viscosities of the hot plume track. Recent mass loss, occurring during the last millennium and especially within the past few decades, drives most of the uplift. Holocene indicators recorded similarly rapid uplift following deglaciation that ended the last ice age. Such rapid uplift, occurring beneath marine terminating glaciers, can affect the future stability of entire ice catchment areas and will become increasingly important in the near future as deglaciation accelerates.

An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20^th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment:

Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance has long been a challenge, primarily due to uncertainties that dwarf the energy flux changes induced and a lack of precise observational data at the surface. We have employed the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, integrating it with recent developments in surface solar radiation observational data, to refine the ensemble of CMIP6 model outputs. This has resulted in an enhanced estimation of Surface Earth System Energy Imbalance (EEI) changes since the late 19th century. Our findings show that CMIP6 model outputs, constrained by this observational data, reflect changes in energy imbalance consistent with observations in Ocean Heat Content (OHC), offering a narrower uncertainty range at the 95% confidence level than previous estimates. Observing the EEI series, dominated by changes due to external forcing, we note a relative stability (0.22 Wm−2) over the past half-century, but with a intensification (reaching 0.80 Wm−2) in the mid to late 1990s, indicating an escalation in the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change, which provides another independent confirmation of what recent studies have shown.

A mid-20th century stratigraphical Anthropocene is recognisable in the birth-area of the industrial revolution, Sellers et al., The Anthropocene Review:

The formalisation of the Anthropocene as a subdivision of the Geological Time Scale has been under debate. Its stratigraphic boundary has been proposed as a precise Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) in the mid-20th century, but it is part of an episode of human-induced changes to the Earth System that have unfolded over millennia. Here we attempt to identify stratigraphical patterns of the Anthropocene from a previously well studied lake sedimentary archive from the English Midlands, located in one of the most heavily human-modified landscapes in the UK, and the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution. Our analysis is predicated on the sedimentary succession of Groby Pool, a small lake situated to the immediate northwest of Leicester. We have found that whilst proxy signals for biotic change are indicative of significant landscape and consequent ecological changes prior to the 20th century, the signal from radiogenic fallout and rapid increase in spheroidal carbonaceous particles indicative of fossil-fuel combustion yield a clear mid and later 20th century stratigraphical signature that corresponds with the Great Acceleration of the post-WWII period. We therefore demonstrate clear stratigraphical signatures in the oldest Industrial Revolution landscape on Earth that are consistent with a mid-20th century start point for the Anthropocene.

From this week's government/NGO section:

The Risks of Climate Change to the United States in the 21st Century, Nielsen et al., Congressional Budget Office

The economic effects of climate change will depend on the extent of its physical effects. Those effects are highly uncertain. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that by 2100, there is a 5 percent chance that average global temperatures will be more than 4 degrees Celsius (4°C) warmer than they were in the latter half of the 19th century and an equal chance that they will have risen by less than 2°C. In the United States, sea levels have a 5 percent chance of rising by about 4 feet or more by 2100 and an equal chance of rising by about 2 feet or less. Damage from natural disasters is also expected to increase. The uncertainty of climate change’s physical effects implies a wide range of possible economic consequences, ranging from benign to catastrophic. In this report, CBO focuses, where possible, on the 5th and 95th percentiles of the distributions of potential outcomes. The authors examine the possible economic effects of climate change on gross domestic product (GDP), real estate markets, and other areas that influence the economy and the federal budget.

When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather In 2024, Otto et al., World Weather Attribution

Every December, we’re asked if it was a bad year for extreme weather. The answer is increasingly clear: yes. The authors look back at 2024, highlighting the devastating consequences of climate change and exposing our collective unpreparedness again and again in the 29 extremes that were studied in depth. Heatwaves continue to claim lives, floods devastate communities, and droughts obliterate crops and livelihoods. Although El Niño made some extreme weather events more likely, its influence on extreme weather was often over-emphasised.

Counting the Cost 2024. A year of climate breakdown, Joe Ware and Oliver Pearce, Christian Aid

This year's Counting the Cost report reveals the shocking cost of the world's worst claimed disasters. These climate disasters serve as a stark warning of what lies ahead if we fail to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. They also highlight the critical need for adaptation measures, particularly in the Global South, where resources are limited, and communities face heightened vulnerability to extreme weather events. The analysis list features disasters featured in the news from all over the world – from U.S. storms like Hurricane Milton and Helene, to the China, Bavaria, and Valencia floods.

93 articles in 44 journals by 646 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55175-0

Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO₂ forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7

Novel dynamical indices for the variations of the South Asia high in a warming climate, Ma et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107901

Tropical High Cloud Feedback Relationships to Climate Sensitivity, Dawson & Schiro, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0218.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Characteristics of Marine Heat Extreme Evolution in the Northern Indian Ocean, Gupta et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8734

Mediterranean marine heatwaves intensify in the presence of concurrent atmospheric heatwaves, Pastor et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01982-8

Recent ice melt above a mantle plume track is accelerating the uplift of Southeast Greenland, Weerdesteijn & Conrad Conrad, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01968-6

Weakening of subsurface ocean temperature seasonality over the past four decades, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01986-4

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A Climate Simulation Dataset From 11 Overriding Experiments for Analysing Cloud and Air–Sea Feedbacks, Guo et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.286

An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20^th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z

Cause and Characteristics of Changes in Mesoscale Convective Systems within a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model, Wallace et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0251.1

Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions, Grossmann-Matheson et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-82892-9

Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model, Guo et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54946-z

More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21^st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2

Multi-Model Projection of Climate Extremes under 1.5°C–4°C Global Warming Levels across Iran, Najafi et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8740

Widening of Wind Stress Anomalies Amplifies ENSO in a Warming Climate, Stuivenvolt-Allen et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0126.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 Wind Fields for Robust Forcing in Indian Ocean Wave Climate Studies, Sreejith et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8744

Evaluating CMIP6 Global Climate Models Performances Over Nigeria: An Integrated Approach, Shiru et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8739

Insights into Cloud Albedo Biases from a Cloud-Controlling Factor Framework, Blanco et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0260.1

Cryosphere & climate change

Elevation-dependent shift of landslide activity in mountain permafrost regions of the Qilian Mountains, Chen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.11.003

Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread, Luo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112323

Sea level & climate change

Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene, Creel et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54535-0

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Nanoparticles of iridium and other platinum group elements identified in Chicxulub asteroid impact spherules – Implications for impact winter and profound climate change, Vajda et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104659

Response of atmospheric CO₂ changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Assessing the impact of extreme climate events on European gross primary production, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110374

Diversity and future perspectives of Mediterranean deep-water oyster reefs, Castellan et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-77641-x

Long-term warming and acidification interaction drives plastic acclimation in the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106901

Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone, Li et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2024.1471164

Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Fertility of Aquatic Animals Using a Meta-Analytic Approach, Chatten et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70054

The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO₂ and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853

Trait-Based Indicators of Marine Communities' Sensitivity to Climate Change and Fishing, Polo et al., Diversity and Distributions 10.1111/ddi.13959

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Adding labile carbon to peatland soils triggers deep carbon breakdown, Rajakaruna et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01954-y

An upscaling of methane emissions from Swedish flooded land, Peacock et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2445254

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, El Masri & Xiao, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008305

Environmental Conditions Modulate Warming Effects on Plant Litter Decomposition Globally, Schwieger et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.70026

GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO₂ recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598

Nitrogen Deposition Weakens Soil Carbon Control of Nitrogen Dynamics Across the Contiguous United States, Nieland et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70016

Recent methane surges reveal heightened emissions from tropical inundated areas, Lin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55266-y

Sea Ice Modulates Air–Sea Methane Flux in the Southern Ocean, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112073

Seasonal CO₂ amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

The presence of the Tibetan Plateau lowers atmospheric CO₂ levels via the Atlantic-Pacific carbon seesaw, Du et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104681

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Advancing the frontiers of CO₂ geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906

Decarbonization

Scaling solar photovoltaics into the grid: Challenges and opportunities in Germany, Gómez-Calvet & Gómez-Calvet, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103882

Geoengineering climate

Impacts of Solar Geoengineering on Projected Climate of South Asia, Hussain et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8695

Question-Led Innovation: Public priorities for enhanced weathering research in Malaysia, Cox et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103977

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Agroforestry as Climate Change Adaptation: The Case of Cocoa Farming in Ghana, Sapril, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2445545

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Agriculture: Pathways to Sustainable Reductions, Li et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70015

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Projecting impacts of extreme weather events on crop yields using LASSO regression, Heilemann et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100738

Rethinking Crop Rotational Benefits Under Climate Change: Beyond the Growing Season, Smith et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70012

Seasonal patterns of CO₂ exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil, Bianchini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110324

The biophysical effects of phenological shifts impact land surface temperature for corn expansion in Northeastern China, Ma et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110373

The vulnerability of winter wheat in Germany to air temperature, precipitation or compound extremes is shaped by soil-climate zones, Becker et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110322

Wetter, but not wet enough—Limited greenhouse gas mitigation effects of subsurface irrigation and blocked ditches in an intensively cultivated grassland on fen peat, Heller et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110367

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Assessment of Droughts and Floods During the Indian Summer Monsoon Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Historical and Future Simulations, George et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8729

Historical and future projections of southwest monsoon rainfall extremes: a comprehensive study using CMIP6 simulations, Varikoden et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107870

Interdecadal shifts and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies of heavy precipitation during the warm-season in the Upper Yellow River Basin over the past 40 years, Ye et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107801

Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Across the Mississippi River Basin Using the NASA Global Daily Downscaled Datasets NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, Talchabhadel et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8748

Climate change economics

Climate finance and new multilateral development banks: approaching co-productive dynamics?, Zeng, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2442004

Perceived climate risk and stock prices: An empirical analysis of pricing effects, Ben Ameur et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.17683

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes and product use are a non-ignorable factor in China’ s mitigation, Hu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01951-1

Carbon literacy, switching cost, and consumer choice: Evidence from the new energy vehicle purchase analysis, Liu & Yang Yang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114478

City climate action plans through the lens of the food-energy-water nexus, Mounir & Chini, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ada0d9

Embracing sufficiency to accelerate the energy transition, Dablander et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103907

Who gets to imagine a fossil-free future? Ontological politics of knowledge-action co-production in the Swedish just transition, Sokolova, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2443884

“Here comes the sun”: Determinants of solar farm planning at local authority level in England, Hussain et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103916

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Addressing social equity in coastal climate adaptation planning: A case study of Norfolk, Virginia, Michel et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000516

Stabilising CO₂ concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation, Lu & Tambakis, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-79437-5

The Complex Task of Evaluating the Institutional Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change at Local Government Level: A Study of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, Gadu et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70003

“Are you prepared or not?”: An intersectional analysis of a community-engaged climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning process with Tsáá? Ché Ne Dane, Avitzur, Neurology Now Open Access 10.1097/01.nnn.0000424230.43366.7b

Climate change impacts on human health

Calibrating the UTCI scale for hot and humid climates through comprehensive year-round field surveys to improve the adaptability, Chen et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102267

Changes in human-perceived temperature extremes and associated population exposure across China, Chen et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107896

Climate change & geopolitics

Geopolitics of renewable energy development: The role of energy metals, Lin & Zhang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114482

Other

A mid-20th century stratigraphical Anthropocene is recognisable in the birth-area of the industrial revolution, Sellers et al., The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196241306407

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Why Misinformation Must Not Be Ignored, Ecker et al., American Psychologist Open Access 10.1037/amp0001448

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Unheeded Warnings: Forest Biomass Threats to Tropical Forests in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, Earth Insight, Auriga Nusantara, Forest Watch Indonesia, Solutions for Our Climate, Trend Asia, and Mighty Earth

Burning wood in biomass power or co-fired in coal power plants could bring Indonesia’s forests to an irrever\nwind into biomass energy threaten forests and biodiversity across Southeast Asia. Threats to Indonesia’s forests from co-firing coal plants include energy plantation forest concessions, and, wood chip and pellet mill haul zones. The country’s forests also face unprecedented threats from the industrial scale projected for biomass demand. Burning wood for energy in Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea is a threat to bio-diverse tropical forests across Southeast Asia.

A Climate of Opportunity. ESG in a Second Trump Administration, Veerless

Voters in 19 states, including conservative regions like Louisiana and Montana, advanced ESG initiatives on environmental protections, anti-discrimination policies, and marriage equality. Despite pushback against “woke culture,” state elections confirmed that ESG values resonate with a broad spectrum of Americans. The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) raises the bar for transparency, requiring emissions data, sustainability plans, and measurable ESG progress. By 2025, CS3D and the EU Taxonomy will align with CSRD, leaving non-compliant companies facing fines, market restrictions, and reputational damage. Gen Z and Millennials are driving corporate sustainability, with over 90% of Gen Z and 60% of Millennials choosing or paying more for sustainable products. Even among conservatives, 60% of Trump voters under 30 express concern about climate change in their communities, highlighting a generational shift that companies can’t ignore.

Civic Activism in an Intensifying Climate Crisis, Erin Jones and Richard Youngs, editors, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

It would be impossible to understand the trajectory of two of the defining issues of the past half-century—the global struggles for democracy and economic justice—without a close examination of the role of civic activism. Civic activism is also critical to a third defining issue of our time, one that is unfolding inexorably day by day, month by month, and year by year—the climate crisis. This innovative, wide-reaching compilation takes stock of the present and near-term future state of climate activism. It ranges beyond the European and North American contexts to look at Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and other regions, alternating between regional and thematic perspectives and narrower, snapshot case studies. It considers tactics and methods, with consideration of problems as well as progress. The compilation threads a useful path between unrealistic optimism and unnecessary pessimism, conveying to the reader a sense of what it will take for climate activism to meet this critical moment, leaving open the question of whether it is likely to do so.

The Risks of Climate Change to the United States in the 21st Century, Nielsen et al., Congressional Budget Office

The economic effects of climate change will depend on the extent of its physical effects. Those effects are highly uncertain. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that by 2100, there is a 5 percent chance that average global temperatures will be more than 4 degrees Celsius (4°C) warmer than they were in the latter half of the 19th century and an equal chance that they will have risen by less than 2°C. In the United States, sea levels have a 5 percent chance of rising by about 4 feet or more by 2100 and an equal chance of rising by about 2 feet or less. Damage from natural disasters is also expected to increase. The uncertainty of climate change’s physical effects implies a wide range of possible economic consequences, ranging from benign to catastrophic. In this report, CBO focuses, where possible, on the 5th and 95th percentiles of the distributions of potential outcomes. The authors examine the possible economic effects of climate change on gross domestic product (GDP), real estate markets, and other areas that influence the economy and the federal budget.

Climate Change: Improved Data and Performance Management Would Strengthen U.S. Support to the Indo-Pacific, Love-Grayer et al., Government Accountability Organization

Countries and U.S. territories in the Indo-Pacific region are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, coral reef bleaching, and drought. GAO was asked to review federal agencies' assistance to address climate risks to countries and U.S. territories in the region. Also, the Inflation Reduction Act asked GAO to oversee the use of these funds. The authors examine (1) the assistance federal agencies have provided to selected countries and U.S. territories in the Indo-Pacific; (2) the extent to which selected agencies have practices to monitor the performance of such assistance in selected locations; and (3) any challenges affecting the provision and use of such assistance and agency efforts to address them. The authors analyzed funding data and documentation of agency activities and monitoring mechanisms; interviewed agency, territorial, foreign government, and activity officials; and conducted site visits to Palau, Papua New Guinea, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam. GAO also interviewed officials in Bangladesh and Fiji.

Building Resilient Cities: Adapting to the Health Impacts of Climate Change, Mathur et al., Observer Research Foundation

Urban populations and city dwellers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, are especially susceptible to the health impacts of climate change. Urban areas, with their dense populations, are more affected by extreme weather events and often have large populations living in insecure informal settlements where access to basic necessities like water, sanitation, and healthcare is limited. Even in high-income countries, cities face multiple non-climate-related stresses, such as aging infrastructure, poor land use planning, and political challenges. The way cities are constructed—reducing vegetation, covering large areas with impermeable surfaces, and obstructing natural drainage—exacerbates the vulnerability of urban populations to climate change, making them more prone to heat waves, heavy precipitation, and other extreme weather events. There is an urgent need for better urban-focused research and the implementation of strategies to address these vulnerabilities, particularly as urban populations continue to grow. Without such actions, the health impacts of climate change in cities are likely to become even more severe. In three sections comprising nine essays, this volume attempts to examine and address these issues.

Financing Climate Adaptation in Africa, Iva Detelinova, Observer Research Foundation

The African continent faces escalating climate threats, with rising temperatures, sea-level rise, water stress, and extreme weather events causing widespread negative consequences. The author argues for the need to build a business case for greater adaptation investment in Africa. Climate change is already causing significant economic losses, with African countries losing 2-5 percent of GDP annually, while adaptation investments could yield returns of US$2-10 for every dollar spent. The author examines emerging opportunities in adaptation finance, driven by changing consumer preferences and growing demand for climate-resilient products. Combining domestic resources with innovative financial mechanisms and growing climate awareness could help African countries transition towards more climate-resilient economies.

Energy justice through policy: A comparison of US and EU approaches, Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek and Marco Siddi, The Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Policymakers have come to consensus on the need to prioritize the low-carbon energy transition. But this comes with costs and questions of fairness. Therefore, policymakers also see transition initiatives as an opportunity to ensure more just outcomes. This has been dubbed the “just energy transition”. But what does a just energy transition mean in practice? How do policymakers bridge the gap between assessed needs – injustices – and policies that correspond to those needs? The authors evaluate and compare EU and US policies aimed at the energy transition and energy justice. It considers the extent to which the European Green Deal (EGD) and the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) attempt to enshrine “energy justice”, as well as the various understandings of the term from the distribution, recognition, and procedure points. The authors show that the EGD is more specific in terms of procedural justice, whereas the IRA includes more explicit clauses related to recognition-based justice. Both highlight elements of distributional justice.

Navigating Clean Energy Industries and Rivalry in Decarbonisation, Dan Marks and James Henderson, The Royal United Services Institute

In this research paper, the authors address a series of questions, including how to ensure the security of production networks while simultaneously decarbonising rapidly and affordably, promoting innovation and maximising local economic benefits. They argue against protectionism and 'friend-shoring' in favour of policies which emphasise the importance of relatively open commodity and capital markets, fair competition, and diversification. The authors conclude that the answer to China’s current overwhelming scale is likely to be increased trade and investment in the most competitive locations for different stages of production, and that environmental and social regulations should be welcomed, but should not serve to exclude challenging jurisdictions from the supply chain by being overly prescriptive or introducing prohibitive costs on suppliers.

Banking on Climate: Mortgage Lending for Decarbonization, New York City Economic Development Corporation, NYU Stern’s Center for Sustainable Business, and the Chao-Hon Chen Institute for Global Real Estate

The authors summarize their research and synthesize recommendations and feedback from participants in the Building Decarbonization Finance Task Force—a group of mortgage lenders, building owners, policymakers, and nonprofits convened from January to June 2024 to discuss opportunities and challenges that the US mortgage industry faces as a result of efforts to decarbonize the built environment.

When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather In 2024, Otto et al., World Weather Attribution

Every December, we’re asked if it was a bad year for extreme weather. The answer is increasingly clear: yes. The authors look back at 2024, highlighting the devastating consequences of climate change and exposing our collective unpreparedness again and again in the 29 extremes that were studied in depth. Heatwaves continue to claim lives, floods devastate communities, and droughts obliterate crops and livelihoods. Although El Niño made some extreme weather events more likely, its influence on extreme weather was often over-emphasised.

3 Degrees More. The Impending Hot Season and How Nature Can Help Us Prevent It, Editor, Klaus Wiegandt, Springer Nature Switzerland AG

This open-access book describes in detail what life on this planet would be like if its average surface temperature were to rise 3 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level. On this basis, the book argues that it is imperative to keep this temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius. It then lays out a detailed plan of what politically feasible, cost-effective measures should now be taken to achieve this goal. In this context, the book provides detailed discussions of climate finance, climate education, and nature-based solutions. The book has been translated into English from the original German version published in 2022 and contains an original foreword and preface.

BRASIL EM TRANSFORMAÇÃO: 2024: O ANO MAIS QUENTE DA HISTÓRIA O IMPACTO DA CRISE CLIMÁTICA (Brazil in Transformation: 2024: The Hottest Year in History. The Impact of the Climate Crisis), Aline Sbizera Martinez and Ronaldo Adriano Christofoletti, Alianca Brasileira Pela Cultura Oceanica (Brazilian Alliance for Oceanic Culture)

O ano de 2024 está consolidado como o mais quente da história desde o período pré-industrial (1850-1900). Pela primeira vez, a média global da temperatura do ar excedeu 1,5 °C acima desse marco histórico durante 12 meses consecutivos. Este limite, considerado crítico pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), estava previsto para ser atingido apenas no final desta década, mas foi antecipado pelos rápidos \nThe year 2024 is set to be the hottest in history since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). For the first time, the global average air temperature exceeded 1.5 °C above this historical milestone for 12 consecutive months. This threshold, considered critical by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was expected to be reached only at the end of this decade but was brought forward by the rapid impacts of the climate crisis.

Counting the Cost 2024. A year of climate breakdown, Joe Ware and Oliver Pearce, Christian Aid

This year's Counting the Cost report reveals the shocking cost of the world's worst claimed disasters. These climate disasters serve as a stark warning of what lies ahead if we fail to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. They also highlight the critical need for adaptation measures, particularly in the Global South, where resources are limited, and communities face heightened vulnerability to extreme weather events. The analysis list features disasters featured in the news from all over the world – from U.S. storms like Hurricane Milton and Helene, to the China, Bavaria, and Valencia floods.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

Suggestions

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

The forgotten story of Jimmy Carter’s White House solar panels

Wed, 1 Jan 2025 16:57:51 EST

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by John Wihbey. A version of this article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections on Nov. 11, 2008.

(Image credits: The White House, Jonathan Cutrer / CC BY 2.0; President Jimmy Carter, Trikosko/Library of Congress; Solar dedication, Bill Fitz-Patrick / Jimmy Carter Library; Solar panel installation film, Department of Energy)

The glass, aluminum, and stainless steel panels reclined at low angles and basked in the sun as the men in suits and ties, flanked by reporters, took to the West Wing roof to look at what they thought was the future. That day, June 20, 1979, was clear enough for the sun to bring out a bright reflection on the panels, and for shadows of those on the roof to be drawn dark and tight around them.

For President Jimmy Carter, it had been nearly three years of tough fighting for clean energy. After a long rollout of green tax credits, the creation of a nascent Energy Department, and a pledge to conduct the “moral equivalent of war” (at the time, spoofed by critics as “MEOW”) against an energy crisis, Carter had built up scars. And there would be more to come. He had had battles with Congress and with his political enemies over green issues. But he had some victories, too, and this day brought one more, a small moment of symbolism.

Solar panels, some 32 of them, were on the roof of the White House. The set was just right — the sun had come out for the press as though for a stage call. Tape rolled, the cameras snapped.

Self-conscious about his idealism, or perhaps just realistic, the president gave voice to his doubts about the panels: “A generation from now, this solar heater can either be a curiosity, a museum piece, an example of a road not taken, or it can be a small part of one of the greatest and most exciting adventures ever undertaken by the American people.”

The point of all this was simple, Carter said. America was to harness “the power of the sun to enrich our lives as we move away from our crippling dependence on foreign oil.”

Carter was a person of simplicity, of conservation; he was also sort of an oddball, a hybrid, an anti-political Christian proto-green who had donned a cardigan sweater, lowered the White House thermostat, and declared “Sun Day” on May 3, 1978.

A year later he had his panels.

In the stillness of that rooftop scene — captured now in celluloid for history — Carter reaches out both hands, straight out, palms to the ground, as if to feel the heat. Trees ring the background. The panels reflect the image of his outstretched arm. An election defeat, a grinding stagflation, a mad Ayatollah, and a bungled hostage crisis were all soon to end his political future. But in that moment he was a creator.

The panels were primitive but serviceable. They heated water. They cost about $28,000 to install. According to the person who convinced Carter to put up the panels, George Szego, who died in 2008 at 88, they were models of industry. They cranked out hot water “a mile a minute,” he said.

Carter, in his State of the Union address the year the panels were installed, presented an ambitious plan to put America on a clean energy path: 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2000. Part of his idea was to go far beyond simple hot water solar collectors and direct government research funds toward the development of photovoltaic cells, the kind that could put energy into the grid.

It’s worth tracing the history of Carter’s panels — the idea and the reality — where they went, how they got lost.

Reagan: Tear down these panels

The 1979 panels survived for a surprising seven years, well into the age of Ronald Reagan — well into the age of what seemed a waning energy crisis, of deregulation, and of a final showdown with a dying “evil empire.” The panels became objects of increasing indifference. And so did the tax credits and research funds that had provided the real meat of Carter’s energy initiatives.

President Reagan had declared government the problem, not the solution. That meant no energy credits. That also meant no solar panels. Ronald Reagan helped tear down the Berlin Wall, and he also helped tear down the White House’s solar panels.

Seven years after the West Wing roof party, in 1986, the symbolic solar collectors met with “roof repairs,” and they were never reinstalled. They were put in a warehouse in Virginia and forgotten. There must have been a little hue and cry at the time — enough to force a statement from the White House media shop.

Reagan press secretary Dale Petroskey told the Associated Press: “Putting them back up would be very unwise, based on cost.” That said, the exact motives for the removal of the panels nonetheless remain murky. A top Reagan official “felt that the equipment was just a joke,” the panel installer Szego recalled to The Washington Post, “and he had it taken down.”

There is no easy way to get the truth — whether it was part of an anti-environment, anti-regulation, anti-Carter policy, or just prudent home repairs by Reagan’s groundskeepers as they fixed a roof leak. A few rumors assuming the worst about Reagan’s motives of course float on the Internet. No big deal. A scan of dozens of biographies and histories of the Reagan era sheds little light.

Edwin Meese, Reagan’s Attorney General and longtime confidant and adviser, is said to have given the thumbs-down to the panels, insisting they were not befitting of a superpower. Maybe that’s apocryphal, too. But in 2008, Meese issued memos from a conservative think tank to the Bush White House, urging the Bush EPA to stall on climate change regulation, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Curiously — and this may say it all — the Reagan administration also allowed Carter’s financial incentives promoting renewables to expire around the time that the panels were removed. Tax credits established in 1977 for homeowners installing solar water heaters ended Dec. 31, 1985, just months before the White House roof coup d’état.

Much of America’s fledgling solar industry, started under Carter, went dark.

A long strange solar trip

Meanwhile, the 32 solar panels had been collecting dust in Virginia. They spent five years there. Finally, an administrator at Unity College, a then down-at-heel Maine school looking for publicity, stripped out the seats from a tattered school bus, drove down I-95, and took the panels from the government warehouse back to Maine.

There, in the hinterlands, U.S. energy policy was postponed, exactly 559 miles from relevance — the distance between 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and the Unity campus at 90 Quaker Hill Road.

The panels remained far from Washington under later presidencies, too, even under the Bill Clinton/Al Gore self-proclaimed “green” one. Clinton had come into office with some promises to address our energy dependence problem. But the 1990s will not be remembered as a time of clean energy renewal.

“[D]uring his eight years in office — aside from a failed effort to pass a carbon tax in 1993 — Clinton pretty much ignored the energy business,” writes energy journalist Robert Bryce in his book, “Gusher of Lies.”

Eventually, in 2006, one panel made it down to the Carter Library in Atlanta, delivered there, fittingly, by two students in a vegetable oil-powered vehicle.

Library director Jay Hakes said in a 2007 statement that “the current problems of dependency on unreliable sources of oil and climate change would probably be much less than they are today” had the panels and their symbolic power been taken more seriously.

Editor’s note: A lot has happened since we first published this article in 2008. Solar panels went back up on the roof of the White House during the Obama administration. President Donald Trump left the panels in place, according to ThoughtCo. ThoughtCo also reports that the Carter panels “can be seen today at museums and show houses around the world. One resides at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of American History, one at the Carter Library and, one joined the collection of the Solar Science and Technology Museum in Dezhou, China.”

2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52

Sun, 29 Dec 2024 10:55:21 EST

A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 22, 2024 thru Sat, December 28, 2024.

This week's roundup is the second one published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if you spot any clear misses and/or have suggestions for additional categories, please let us know in the comments. Thanks!

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts

Climate change could create millions of climate migrants by 2050 Droughts, floods, sea level rise, and other climate change impacts are uprooting people from their homes. by YCC Team, Yale Climate Connections, Dec 26, 2024
2024: A year of extreme heat and growing climate danger This year is set to be the hottest on record – but scientists say there’s still time to limit temperature rise and harm from climate impacts by Megan Rowling, Climate Home News, Dec 27, 2024
When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather In 2024 When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024 is our annual report, published this year for the first time. by WWA-Team, World Weather Attribution, Dec 27, 2024
California's piers may not be able to withstand climate change by Noah Haggerty, Climate , Dec 28, 2024

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Uruguay, pioneer in renewable energy: a model for the world? The country is a global leader in the transition toward green energy, following a radical transformation of its energy mix. by Johani Carolina Ponce, Yale Climate Connections, Dec 18, 2024

Climate education and communication

How to teach climate change so 15-year-olds can act OECD’s Pisa program will measure the ability of students to take action in response to climate anxiety and ‘take their position and role in the global world’ by Petra Stock, The Guardian, Dec 23, 2024
Is silence golden? What a change expert says about family climate conversations at Christmas time Do you engage with climate deniers that come your way this Christmas? And if so, what’s the best way to do it? by Jen Marsden, Euro News, Dec 22, 2024

Climate law and justice

Young people's climate change lawsuit appealed to Supreme Court The Ontario government's bid for leave to appeal sets the stage for what could be an important test of the Charter’s application to environmental policy. by Andrew Duffy, Ottawa Citizen, Dec 23, 2024

Climate policy and politics

How Shell greenwashed gas with sham Chinese carbon credits Exclusive: Shell used rice-farming offsets for “carbon neutral” LNG campaign – but farmers and local authorities said no project activities took place by Matteo Civillini, Climate Home News, Dec 19, 2024
`We`re gobsmacked`: climate groups angered by Labor`s `no new coalmines` claim Campaigners say Queensland mine given go-ahead this week is a new development, not an extension of an existing mine by Graham Readfearn, The Guardian, Dec 20, 2024

Climate science and research

What would it take for Hell to freeze over? by Simon Clark, Youtube, Dec 24, 2024
2023 was extremely hot. Then came 2024 by Lauren Sommer, NPR Topics: Climate, Dec 24, 2024
Climate change is making plants less nutritious - that could already be hurting animals that are grazers 'CO2 is plant food!'' Unfortunately it's not quite so simple by Ellen Welti, Research Ecologist, Great Plains Science Program, Smithsonian Institution, The Conversation - Articles (US), Dec 20, 2024
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #52 2024 Skeptical Science's weekly survey of research on human-caused climate change, plus select government/NGO reports touching on matters of climate. by Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Skeptical Science, Dec 26, 2024

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions

With right-wing backing, New England offshore wind opponents gain strength by Miriam Wasser, WBUR, Dec 20 2024

Miscellaneous (Other)

What happened in climate news in 2024? Take our quiz Here are 10 questions to test your knowledge of this year's climate stories. by Emily Chung & Hannah Hoag , CBC Technology News, Dec 19, 2024
2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #51 A listing of 25 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 15, 2024 thru Sat, December 21, 2024. by Bärbel Winkler, Doug Bostrom & John Hartz, Skeptical Science, Dec 22, 2024
College students get emotional about climate change. Some are finding help in class by Rebecca Redelmeier , NPR Topics: Climate, Dec 22, 2024
Do you want the GOOD news or the BAD news? by Dave Borlace, "Just have a think" on Youtube, Dec 22, 2024
Climate anger can lead to action-or curdle into despair: Researchers find out why by Samantha Stanley, Iain Walker, Teaghan Hogg and Zoe Leviston, Phys.org - from The Conservation, Dec 22, 2024
Average Briton causes 23 times more CO2 on Christmas Day, study reveals Campaigners say consumption such as travel, gifts and food are destroying planet and the meaning of Christmas by Damien Gayle, Environment The Guardian, Dec 24, 2024
A DeSmog Guide to How the World Changed in 2024 Our editors and reporters weigh in on a year of seismic political events, and what they’re paying close attention to in 2025. by DeSmog Staff, DeSmog, Dec 26, 2024
¡AI Caramba! Rapid progress in the use of machine learning for weather and climate models is evident almost everywhere, but can we distinguish between real advances and vaporware? by Gavin Schmidt, RealClimate, Dec 28, 2024

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #52 2024

Thu, 26 Dec 2024 14:07:02 EST

Open access notables

Trends in Oceanic Precipitation Characteristics Inferred From Shipboard Present-Weather Reports, 1950–2019, Tran & Petty, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres:

Although ship reports are susceptible to subjective interpretation, the inferred distributions of these phenomena are consistent with observations from other platforms such as satellites and coastal surface stations. These distributions highlight widespread 70-year trends that are often consistent across both annual and seasonal frequencies, with statistical significance at 95% confidence. The relative frequency of ship-reported drizzle has largely increased in the tropics annually and seasonally, with linear best-fit relative increases by as much as 15% per decade. Decreased relative frequencies have been observed in parts of the subtropics and at higher latitudes. Heavier precipitation has encompassed a growing fraction of non-drizzle precipitation reports over the subtropical North Pacific and Mediterranean. The relative frequency of thunderstorm reports has declined over the open Atlantic but show positive trends over the Mediterranean and the western Atlantic. The trends in relative frozen precipitation occurrence suggest a poleward retreat of areas receiving frozen precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere. Possible mechanisms for these ship-observed trends are discussed and placed in the context of the modeled effects of climate change on global precipitation.

Increase Asymmetric Warming Rates Between Daytime and Nighttime Temperatures Over Global Land During Recent Decades, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters:

Global climate change is causing uneven warming patterns, which significantly affect how ecosystems exchange water and carbon. One important way to understand this is through the diurnal temperature range (DTR), which measures the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures. In this study, we examined DTR changes globally from 1961 to 2022 using a method called ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). We discovered that the overall trend in DTR reversed around 1988, changing from a decline to an increase, which affected nearly half of the world's land areas. Subsequent to the reversal, the most pronounced increases were observed in temperate regions, whereas tropical areas exhibited a more subdued rate of rise. Interestingly, we found that the rate of increase in DTR is stronger in southern latitudes compared to northern latitudes.

Near-term carbon dioxide removal deployment can minimize disruptive pace of decarbonization and economic risks towards United States’ net-zero goal, Adun et al., Communications Earth & Environment:

Deep decarbonization is essential for achieving the Paris Agreement goals, and carbon dioxide removal is required to address residual emissions and achieve net-zero targets. However, the implications of delaying the deployment of removal technologies remain unclear. We quantify how different carbon removal methods and their deployment timing affect achieving net zero emissions by 2050 in the United States. Our findings show that postponing novel technologies until mid-century forces accelerated decarbonization of energy-intensive sectors, reducing residual emissions by at least 12% compared with near-term deployment of carbon dioxide removal. This delay increases transition costs, requiring carbon prices 59–79% higher than with near-term deployment. It also heightens the risk of premature fossil fuel retirement in the electricity sector, leading to 128–220 billion USD losses compared to gradual scale up starting now. A balanced, near-term co-deployment of novel removal methods mitigates risks associated with relying on a single approach and addresses sustainability and scalability concerns.

A New Heat Stress Index for Climate Change Assessment, Lanzante, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:

The heat index (HI), based on Steadman’s model of thermoregulation, estimates heat stress on the human body from ambient temperature and humidity. It has been used widely both in applications, such as the issuance of heat advisories by the National Weather Service (NWS) and for research on possible changes in the future due to climate change. However, temperature/humidity combinations that exceed the applicable range of the model are becoming more common due to climate warming. Recent work by Lu and Romps has produced an extended heat index (EHI), which is valid for values outside the range of the original HI. For these values, the HI can underestimate the EHI by a considerable amount. This work utilizes observed data from 15 U.S. weather stations along with bias-adjusted output from a climate model to explore the spatial and temporal aspects of the disparity between the HI and the EHI from the recent past out to the end of the twenty-first century. The underestimate of human heat stress by the HI is found to be the largest for the most extreme cases (5°–10°C), which are also the most impactful. Conditions warranting NWS excessive heat warnings are found to increase dramatically from less than 5% of days historically at most stations to more than 90% in the future at some stations.

Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making, Sillmann et al., Frontiers in Climate

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts.

From this weeks government/NGO section:

Balancing Act. Assessing Risks and Governance of Climate Intervention, Porambo et al., Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University

Nations, organizations, and individuals may soon look to climate intervention, also known as geoengineering, as a means to avoid the most severe effects of climate change. Despite the hope that climate intervention may prevent the increasingly dire climate change projections from becoming reality, the efficacy of many climate intervention methods remains uncertain. Moreover, many methods pose their own risks to the environment, global ecosystems, and critical human systems. These uncertainties and risks, when combined with the relatively few barriers to unilateral deployment for many methods, drive the need for national and international regulation of climate intervention research, testing, development, and deployment. The authors summarize the effects of two controversial climate intervention methods—stratospheric aerosol injection and ocean iron fertilization—on national security, considering their abilities to both stop and reverse the effects of climate change and the possible direct, unintended environmental changes. It then examines governance principles for climate intervention from a combined national security and technical perspective, deriving principles for addressing climate intervention research, governance, and possible use and making recommendations for the path forward.

Producer perceptions of environmental sustainability and climate change. 2024 national poll of farmers and ranchers, Leger, Farmers for Climate Solutions

When farmers and ranchers were asked an open-ended question—at the very beginning of the poll—about the top challenge for the agricultural sector for the next decade, climate change was the number one answer. 76% of farmers and ranchers report being impacted by severe weather in the past five years. Producers are worried that climate change will bring more restrictive policies and regulations, reduce income and yields, and negatively affect their mental health. 87% of farmers and ranchers consider themselves good stewards of the land, and 47% feel they can do more to improve environmental outcomes in their operations. Producers want a range of supports to adopt high resilience, low emissions practices, including technical support and training, financial incentives, risk management tools, and price premiums for sustainable products.

139 articles in 52 journals by 858 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO₂ relationship, Jarvis & Forster, Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5

Impact of Canadian wildfires on aerosol and ice clouds in the early-autumn Arctic, Sato et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107893

Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO₂ forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7

Links Between Internal Variability and Forced Climate Feedbacks: The Importance of Patterns of Temperature Variability and Change, Davis et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112774

Observations of climate change, effects

Assessment of the global ocean heat content and North Atlantic heat transport over 1993–2020, Liu et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-024-00860-6

Growing aridity poses threats to global land surface, Sardans et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01935-1

Impacts of changing atmospheric circulations and declining spring Barents Sea ice on more frequent summer heatwave in Southern China, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107874

Increase Asymmetric Warming Rates Between Daytime and Nighttime Temperatures Over Global Land During Recent Decades, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112832

Unraveling the roles of jet streams on the unprecedented hot July in Western Europe in 2022, Li et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-024-00880-2

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A new model to estimate daytime net surface radiation under all sky conditions, Foyo-Moreno et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107886

Estimation of Break and Noise Variance and the Maximum Distance of Climate Stations Allowed in Relative Homogenisation of Annual Temperature Anomalies, Lindau, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8724

Monthly High-Resolution Historical Climate Data for North America Since 1901, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8726

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20^th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z

Association between heat and upper urinary tract stones morbidity and medical costs: A study in the subtropical humid climate zone, Yang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.001

Changes of the trace metals in ice core during 1915?2016 in coastal eastern Antarctica, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.003

Characteristics of life-cycle carbon dioxide emissions of arterial highway maintenance and the influencing factors, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.009

Comparison of bulk snow density measurements using different methods, Su et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.005

Corrigendum to “Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale” [Adv. Clim. Change Res. 15 (2024) 42–51], Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.004

Evaluation and simulation of terrestrial latent heat flux globally: A collaborative effort utilizing CMIP6 climate models and eddy covariance observations, Tian et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110371

Evaluation of the performance of WRF9km in simulating climate over the upper Yellow River Basin, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.003

Global assessment of hydrogen production from the electrical grid aiming the Brazilian transportation sector, Silva Junior & da Silva, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101626

Hourly land surface temperature retrieval over the Tibetan Plateau using Geo-LightGBM framework: Fusion of Himawari-8 satellite, ERA5 and site observations, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.007

How China's transport sector responds to carbon neutrality target: A study from a multi-model comparison analysis, Yan et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101627

Impact of ambient temperatures on Alzheimer's disease and other dementia mortality among elderly patients aged 60 years and older in China, Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.002

Impact of current and historical climate shocks on crop diversification in Zambia: Insights from household- and district-level observations, Wang et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683

Impact of extreme seasonal drought on ecosystem carbon?water coupling across China, Huang & Zhai, Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.001

Impacts of Climate Change on Arctic Winter Cyclones, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041503

Investigating the dynamics and interactions of surface features on Pine Island Glacier using remote sensing and deep learning, Zhu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.011

Monitoring ground temperature and deformation of the cast-in-place footings in permafrost regions on the Qinghai?Tibet Plateau, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.002

More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21^st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2

Projected phenological shifts in stratification and overturning of ice-covered Northern Hemisphere lakes, Huang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01953-z

Response of the Mediterranean Sea Surface Circulation at Various Global Warming Levels: A Multi-Model Approach, Parras?Berrocal et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111695

Role of anthropogenic forcing in Antarctic sea ice variability simulated in climate models, Morioka et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54485-7

The Effect of Pseudo-Global Warming on the Weather-Climate System of Africa in a Convection-Permitting Model, Núñez Ocasio & Dougherty Dougherty, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112341

Thermal and hydrological processes in permafrost slope wetlands affect thermosyphon embankment stability, Tai et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.010

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

CARIB12: a regional Community Earth System Model/Modular Ocean Model 6 configuration of the Caribbean Sea, Seijo-Ellis et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024

Inter-Model Uncertainty in Projecting Precipitation Changes Over Central Asia Under Global Warming, Yao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111989

The Source of the Uncertainties in CMIP6 Model's Projections of the Summertime Northwest Pacific Subtropical High, Yang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041854

Cryosphere & climate change

Characteristics of Musta Glacier surges and their responses to climate change between 1976 and 2023, GAO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.007

Greenland Ice Sheet Elevation Change From CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2, Ravinder et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110822

Record-low Antarctic sea ice in 2023 increased ocean heat loss and storms, Josey et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-024-08368-y

Sea level & climate change

Salt-wedge estuary's response to rising sea level, reduced discharge, and Nature-Based Solution, Verri et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1408038

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Late Miocene-early Pliocene hydroclimate evolution of the western Altiplano, northern Chile: Implications for aridification trends under warming climate conditions, Mentzer et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104674

Response of atmospheric CO₂ changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636

The Hunt for Holocene Abrupt Climate Change, Scroxton & McKay, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000547

Were early Archean carbonate factories major carbon sinks on the juvenile Earth?, Xiang et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5653-2024

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Effects of Vegetation Restoration Type on Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Associated Microbial Regulation on the Loess Plateau, Zhou et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70688

Estimating a physiological threshold to oxygen and temperature from marine monitoring data reveals challenges and opportunities for forecasting distribution shifts, Indivero et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07413

Evaluating Water Use Efficiency and CO? Absorption in Plants under Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels, Boretti, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106409

Freeze-thaw process boosts penguin-derived NH3 emissions and enhances climate-relevant particles formation in Antarctica, Tian et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-024-00873-1

How does the coral microbiome mediate its natural host fitness under climate stress conditions? Physiological, molecular, and biochemical mechanisms, Abdelghany et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106920

Long-term warming and acidification interaction drives plastic acclimation in the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106901

Model-based impact analysis of climate change and land-use intensification on trophic networks, Neumann et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07533

Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855

Quantifying the Evolution of Extreme Drought Under Climate Change and Its Impacts on Vegetation Productivity Over the Hai River Basin of China, Yao et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8727

The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO₂ and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853

Winners and Losers From Climate Change: An Analysis of Climate Thresholds for Tree Growth and Survival for Roughly 150 Species Across the Contiguous United States, Clark et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17597

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Effects of fire intensity on carbon dioxide exchange in an arctic dry heath tundra, Xu & Ambus Lambæk, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110362

GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO₂ recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598

Rethinking microbial carbon use efficiency in soil models, Allison, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02217-6

Seasonal CO₂ amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

The presence of the Tibetan Plateau lowers atmospheric CO₂ levels via the Atlantic-Pacific carbon seesaw, Du et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104681

Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China’s terrestrial ecosystems, Zhou et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1518578

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Advancing the frontiers of CO₂ geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906

National Forest Restoration Projects in China: Cost-Efficiency, and Trade-Off Between Carbon Sequestration and Water Consumption, Zhang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004976

Strong El Niño and La Niña precipitation—sea surface temperature sensitivity under a carbon removal scenario, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01958-8

Decarbonization

Fuel shifts reduce most of the greenhouse gas emissions from transportation in the United States, Horesh & Quinn, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01924-4

Geoengineering climate

Responses of microbial metabolic rates to non-equilibrated silicate- versus calcium-based ocean alkalinity enhancement, Marín-Samper et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5707-2024

Climate change communications & cognition

A meta-ethnography of global research on the mental health and emotional impacts of climate change on older adults, Marinova et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102511

Americans’ support for climate justice, Carman et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103976

Climate change perceptions in China: the relationship between environmental mental imagery and environmental values, beliefs, and behaviors, Yangli et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102513

Predicting the Performance of Facebook Advertisements About Climate Change Using Self-report Data, Goldberg et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2441936

Worry’s Clout: Concern, Not Positive Affectivity, Drives Climate Activism, Bechtoldt & Schermelleh-Engel, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102517

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Adaptation of rice to climate change in high-latitude regions of China: Will price expectation make differences?, Yu & Tian, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2442590

Can crop production agglomeration reduce carbon emissions?—empirical evidence from China, Han et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1516238

Feasibility analysis of expanding winter rapeseed northwards in China, Fan et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110297

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Past and Future Climate-Driven Changes of Agricultural Land in Central Europe, Torbenson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112363

Process-based modeling framework for sustainable irrigation management at the regional scale: Integrating rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions, Bo et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-212

Seasonal patterns of CO₂ exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil, Bianchini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110324

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Comparing extreme rainfall exposure to climate-focused planning efforts: A mixed methods analysis in the northeastern United States, Miller et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102258

Simulation and Future Projections of Reference Evapotranspiration in Egypt, Sobh et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8730

Trends in Oceanic Precipitation Characteristics Inferred From Shipboard Present-Weather Reports, 1950–2019, Tran & Petty, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041705

Vegetation Greening Mitigates the Impacts of Increasing Extreme Rainfall on Runoff Events, Ficklin et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004661

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A just energy transition is not just a transition: Framing energy justice for a quantitative assessment, Rios-Ocampo et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103900

A low-carbon electricity transition for small island developing states: The case of Mauritius, Jaggeshar et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101638

An Integrated Assessment of Technological Pathways and Socioeconomic Impacts for Sustainable Power System Transition in Indonesia, Purwanto et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.11.005

Assessing the effectiveness of energy policies in accelerating renewable energy-based mini-grid deployment: A case study, Nyarko et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101631

Assessing the energy efficiency gains of climate legislation: a global perspective, Hu et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2444456

Climate change disclosure and carbon performance of Chinese listed companies: exploring the moderating effects of climate governance and corporate environmental governance, Zhang, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1469899

Decarbonising the rental housing market: An experimental analysis of tenants’ preferences for clean energy features of residential buildings, Reidl & Wüstenhagen, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114472

Emissions trading systems: Trading removals?, La Hoz Theuer et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2434092

Energy storage and clean energy transitions, Feng & Lazkano Bektas Lill Omojola Bae Mammadzade Karavias Yang Liu, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114447

Evaluating the role of the oil and gas industry in energy transition in oil-producing countries: A systematic literature review, Dongo & Relvas, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103905

Evidence on local climate policies achieving emission reduction targets by 2030, Franco et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102242

Fossil fuel subsidy reform, distributive justice and civil unrest, Belgioioso & Newman, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103868

Indian power sector decarbonization: Net-zero by 2050 or 2070, Evans et al., International Journal of Radiation Oncology*Biology*Physics Open Access 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2006.07.473

Market perspective on climate actions and clean energy transition, Xia, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114470

Navigating climate policy: The influence of lobbying trends and narratives in Europe, Errichiello et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103974

Near-term carbon dioxide removal deployment can minimize disruptive pace of decarbonization and economic risks towards United States’ net-zero goal, Adun et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01916-4

Policy preference for a net zero carbon economy: Results from a US national survey, Fikru, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114479

Public perceptions of mineral criticality and preferences for energy transition strategies in the United States, Fikru & Koppera, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01944-0

Speeding-up wind energy developments: Exploring notions of acceleration and justice in regions within Germany and the Netherlands, Hielscher et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103909

The impact of emissions trading systems on technological innovation for climate change mitigation: a systematic review, Chen et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2443464

The landscape of city-level GHG emission accounts in Africa, Liu et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13562

The UK's border carbon leakage trilemma, Lydgate & Winters, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114393

Unpacking the politics of Nature-based Solutions governance: Making space for transformative change, Hafferty et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103979

“We don't have time”: How imaginaries of urgent energy system change marginalise locally driven pathways, Unsworth et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103888

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A systematic review of justice integration to climate resilience: Current trends and future directions, Pellerey et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102250

Climate change impact on the architecture and built environment dwellers’ well-being in Niger Delta Region: a systematic review, Dimuna et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1498938

Giving up land? Explaining planned retreat in times of climate change, Pot et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2437422

Redefining maladaptation to climate change: a conceptual examination of the unintended consequences of adaptation strategies on ecological-human systems, Rouzaneh & Savari, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1506295

Stabilising CO₂ concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation, Lu & Tambakis, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-79437-5

Climate change impacts on human health

A New Heat Stress Index for Climate Change Assessment, Lanzante, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0030.1

Efficient and Accurate Shortcuts for Calculating the Extended Heat Index, Lanzante, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0081.1

Local communities’ perceptions on malaria prevalence in the face of climate change in Chimanimani District, Zimbabwe, Manyangadze et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2435474

Physiological response to exercise in the heat: Implications for risk mitigation and adaptation, Criddle et al., Temperature 10.1080/23328940.2024.2431402

Virginia Heat Watch: Collaboration to assess climate vulnerability at local to regional scales, Lookingbill et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102252

Climate change & geopolitics

ASEAN’s climate change mitigation and adaptation measures: abandoning stagnant policy responses, Putra, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1488560

Other

Nutrient management offsets the effect of deoxygenation and warming on nitrous oxide emissions in a large US estuary, Tang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adq5014

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Actions before agreement, Columbia Law Review Open Access 10.2307/1111574

Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making, Sillmann et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765

Climate scientists gird for Trump administration, Voosen, Science 10.1126/science.adv4100

Editorial for the 30th anniversary special issue: Decarbonisation for sustainable development, Urmee et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101635

Engaging young generations in climate research, Cheng, Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02226-5

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending and Logistics, Kristi Moriarty and Robert McCormick, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

The authors updated a previous report to address current market needs and account for more production plants coming online, as well as more commitments from the aviation industry. The authors focus on the United States market.

Fast, scalable, clean, and cheap enough. How off-grid solar microgrids can power the AI race, Baranko et al., Scale Microgrid and PACES

Could off-grid solar microgrids in the US be big enough, fast enough, and cheap enough to be a compelling near-term alternative to building more natural gas power plants to meet near-term AI energy needs? If yes, what would that look like and how would one do it? Off-grid solar microgrids are categorically faster than new grid interconnections (5+year queues) as well as off-grid colocated gas turbines (3+ year lead times). Off-grid solar microgrids today are near cost parity with natural gas and cheaper than other clean alternatives. Opportunities for further cost reduction are significant. Off-grid solar microgrids are enormously scalable, with >1,200 GW of data center potential in the US Southwest alone. Between 0.4 billion tons (30 GW new data centers) and 4.1 billion tons (300 GW new data centers) of CO? emissions could be avoided between now and 2030 if every new AI data center was built using the 90% solar configuration.

2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, North American Electric Reliability Corporation

The authors find that most of the North American bulk power system faces mounting resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years as surging demand growth continues and thermal generators announce plans for retirement. New solar PV, battery, and hybrid resources continue to flood interconnection queues, but completion rates are lagging behind the need for new generation. Furthermore, the performance of these replacement resources is more variable and weather-dependent than the generators they are replacing. As a result, less overall capacity, particularly dispatchable capacity, is being added to the system than what was projected and needed to meet future demand. The trends point to critical reliability challenges facing the industry: satisfying escalating energy growth, managing generator retirements, and accelerating resource and transmission development.

Tropical Cyclone Chido, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London

The IRIS model estimates that climate change uplifted the intensity of a tropical cyclone like “Chido" from a Category 3 to a Category 4. A “Chido” type storm is about +40% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline. In a future +2.6°C warmer world we estimate TC Chido will be a further +26% more likely compared to now.

Breathe easy. Household electrification as a public health intervention to improve outdoor air quality, Kanj et al., Rewiring America

The authors model the health benefits of electrifying America’s households through upgrading space heating, water heating, and clothes drying using heat pump technology. Collectively, these systems currently output more than half a million tons of fine particulate matter outdoors each year through burning fossil fuels at home and electricity consumption from existing, inefficient electric appliances. The authors use building energy modeling, open-source data on air pollutants, and air quality modeling to quantify the potential for population health benefits of electrifying America’s households.

Progress in Diversifying the Global Solar PV Supply Chain, Romain Zissler, Renewable Energy Institute

The author analyzes progress in diversifying the global solar PV supply chain. He finds that efforts to expand crystalline silicon manufacturing in the United States, Europe, Southeast Asia, and India, as well as improvements in recycling and the emergence of perovskite – pioneered by Japan, make the solar PV supply chain more robust.

Next to Fall: The Climate-Driven Insurance Crisis is Here - and Getting Worse, Staff, Senate Budget Committee

The collected data confirm that it is climate change that is driving increasing non-renewal rates, as the counties that are most exposed to climate-related risks, such as wildfires or hurricanes, are the counties seeing the highest non-renewal insurance rates. The data reveal that Florida, Louisiana, California, and Texas are not the only places experiencing spiking non-renewal rates and increasing premiums. Florida has the highest average statewide non-renewal rate; Texas is not even in the top ten. Southern New England, the Carolinas, New Mexico, and counties in the Northern Rockies, Oklahoma, and Hawaii all suffer from high non-renewal rates, demonstrating that the full panoply of climate-related effects, hurricanes, wildfires, severe convective storms, hail, extreme precipitation, and sea level rise, are all destabilizing insurance markets. The non-renewal data that was e obtained confirms a correlation between rising non-renewal rates and rising premiums. This underscores that climate change has become a major cost-of-living issue for families across the country.

Producer perceptions of environmental sustainability and climate change. 2024 national poll of farmers and ranchers, Leger, Farmers for Climate Solutions

When farmers and ranchers were asked an open-ended question—at the very beginning of the poll—about the top challenge for the agricultural sector for the next decade, climate change was the number one answer. 76% of farmers and ranchers report being impacted by severe weather in the past five years. Producers are worried that climate change will bring more restrictive policies and regulations, reduce income and yields, and negatively affect their mental health. 87% of farmers and ranchers consider themselves good stewards of the land, and 47% feel they can do more to improve environmental outcomes in their operations. Producers want a range of supports to adopt high resilience, low emissions practices, including technical support and training, financial incentives, risk management tools, and price premiums for sustainable products.

Draft, Energy Storage Strategy and Roadmap, Office of Electricity, Department of Energy

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the release of its draft Energy Storage Strategy and Roadmap (SRM), and update to the Energy Storage Grand Challenge Roadmap (December 2020). This draft Energy Storage SRM updates the ESGC 2020 Roadmap (the original energy storage strategic plan) in consideration of the progress made across the energy storage sector since 2020, as well as to reflect DOE’s recent activities in support of its energy storage mission and vision. The draft Energy Storage SRM represents a significantly expanded strategic revision to the original ESGC 2020 Roadmap. This SRM outlines actions that implement the strategic objectives facilitating safe, beneficial, and timely storage deployment; empower decision makers by providing data-driven information analysis; and leverage the country’s global leadership to advance durable engagement throughout the innovation ecosystem.

Balancing Act. Assessing Risks and Governance of Climate Intervention, Porambo et al., Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University

Nations, organizations, and individuals may soon look to climate intervention, also known as geoengineering, as a means to avoid the most severe effects of climate change. Despite the hope that climate intervention may prevent the increasingly dire climate change projections from becoming reality, the efficacy of many climate intervention methods remains uncertain. Moreover, many methods pose their own risks to the environment, global ecosystems, and critical human systems. These uncertainties and risks, when combined with the relatively few barriers to unilateral deployment for many methods, drive the need for national and international regulation of climate intervention research, testing, development, and deployment. The authors summarize the effects of two controversial climate intervention methods—stratospheric aerosol injection and ocean iron fertilization—on national security, considering their abilities to both stop and reverse the effects of climate change and the possible direct, unintended environmental changes. It then examines governance principles for climate intervention from a combined national security and technical perspective, deriving principles for addressing climate intervention research, governance, and possible use and making recommendations for the path forward.

The Balancing Act: Risks and Benefits of Integrating Permanent Carbon Removals into the EU ETS, The Clean Air Task Force and Concito

The authors analyze and provide recommendations to address potential impacts on 1) the functioning and integrity of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and 2) short and long-term demand for permanent carbon removals, if permanent carbon removals are to be integrated into the EU ETS as part of the 2026 review of the system. The authors examine the integration of permanent carbon removals into the EU ETS through four approaches including without restrictions, with a maintained emissions cap, with supply controls, and via an intermediary institution.

2024 - 2028 Delaware State Energy Plan, Delaware State Energy Office DNREC Division of Climate, Coastal and Energy

The plan maps out strategies that Deleware can deploy to meet the state’s energy and emissions reduction goals while maintaining a reliable and resilient grid and increasing energy justice in disadvantaged communities.

Maine Pathways to 2040: Analysis and Insights, Murphy et al., Maine Governor’s Energy Office

The draft plan presents actionable and affordable strategies to meet the 2040 target, such as diversifying energy sources in Maine, stabilizing electricity rates, reducing emissions, and supporting jobs and economic investment. The completed plan will be a new, comprehensive, integrated energy plan consistent with Maine law to meet the Governor’s 100% clean electricity by 2040 directive and identify economy-wide decarbonization options looking beyond 2040. It will also inform planning for future investment opportunities, including the pursuit and deployment of federal and other funds, by entities within Maine to continue to ensure Maine can capitalize on such opportunities.

Exploring the impact of deglaciation on fault slip in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Colorado, USA, Cecilia Hurtado and Sean Gallen, Colorado State University

Few natural examples exist where climate’s influence on tectonics is clear. Based on a study of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern Colorado, the authors argue that climate-driven changes in ice loads affected spatial and temporal slip patterns on the range-front normal fault.

Cloud Seeding Technology: Assessing Effectiveness and Other Challenges, Howard et al., United States Government Accountability Office

Cloud seeding may increase water availability and result in economic, environmental, and human health benefits. In the studies GAO reviewed, estimates of the additional precipitation ranged from 0 to 20 percent. However, it is difficult to evaluate the effects of cloud seeding due to limitations of effectiveness research. The authors identified challenges to the use and development of cloud seeding, including reliable information on the conduct of optimal, effective cloud seeding and its benefits and effects. Without such information, operations will be less effective and the return on funding investments is unclear; cloud seeding operations can only enhance precipitation when the right kind of clouds are present, which limits opportunities for success, and existing research that the authors reviewed, while limited to a handful of recent studies, suggests silver iodide does not pose an environmental or health concern at current levels. However, it is not known whether more widespread use of silver iodide would affect public health or the environment.

Flood Underinsurance, Amornsiripanitch et al., Federal Resrve Bank Philadelphia

Using data on expected flood damage and National Flood Insurance Program policies, we estimate annual flood risk protection gaps and underinsurance among single-family residences in the contiguous United States. Annually, 70 percent ($17.1 billion) of total flood losses would be uninsured. Underinsurance, defined as protection gaps among properties with positive flood risk and incentives to purchase full flood insurance coverage, totals $15.7 billion annually. Eighty percent of at-risk households are underinsured, and average underinsurance is $7,208 per year. Underinsurance persists both inside and outside the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s special flood hazard areas, suggesting frictions in the provision of risk information and regulatory compliance. Seventy percent of uninsured households would benefit from purchasing flood insurance, even as prevailing prices rise. Household beliefs about climate risks are strongly correlated with underinsurance.

Hot Rocks and H2: Modeling the Role of Emerging Technologies in the Electricity Sector, Jesse Jenkins, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department, Princeton University

In this dissertation, the author presents work using system modeling methods to explore the role and impacts of two emerging technologies - enhanced geothermal power and hydrogen electrolysis - in a decarbonizing electricity sector.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

Suggestions

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

Uruguay, pioneer in renewable energy: a model for the world?

Mon, 23 Dec 2024 15:23:20 EST

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Johani Carolina Ponce

Tacuarembó, Uruguay. (Image credit: Getty Images)

[Haz clic aquí para leer en español]

It has a population of just under 3.5 million inhabitants, produces nearly 550,000 tons of beef per year, and boasts a glorious soccer reputation with two World Cups in its history and a present full of world-class stars. Uruguay, the country of writer Mario Benedetti and soccer player Luis Suárez, has achieved what many countries have pledged for decades: 98% of its grid runs on green energy.

Luis Prats, 62, is a Uruguayan journalist and contributor to the Montevideo newspaper El País. He remembers that during his childhood, blackouts were common in Uruguay because there were major problems with energy generation.

“At that time, more than 50 years ago, electricity came from two small dams and from generation in a thermal plant,” Prats explained in Spanish by telephone. “If there was a drought in the Negro River basin, where those dams are, there were already cuts and sometimes restrictions on the use of electrical energy.”

Just 17 years ago, Uruguay used fossil fuels for a third of its energy generation, according to the World Resources Institute.

Today, only 2% of the electricity consumed in Uruguay is generated from fossil sources. The country’s thermal power plants rarely need to be activated, except when natural resources are insufficient.

Half of Uruguay’s electricity is generated in the country’s dams, and 10% percent comes from agricultural and industrial waste and the sun. But wind, at 38%, is the main protagonist of the revolution in the electrical grid. But how did the country achieve it? Who were the architects of this energy transition?

Energy revolution

In 2008, Uruguay faced a problem that many developing countries face. The economy was growing, but it did not have enough electrical energy to fuel all that growth. Energy rationing had to be implemented, and electricity bills continued to rise.

“It was difficult for us to cope,” Ramón Méndez Galain, a professor at the University of the Republic in Montevideo, Uruguay, said in an interview with NPR. He is one of the architects of the energy revolution in that country. “It was difficult to get electricity. For a while, we began to have power outages, but the crisis also represents an opportunity.”

In 2008, President Tabaré Vázquez appointed Méndez Galain as national director of energy. Although the blackouts posed an immediate threat to the economy, the country’s continued dependence on oil undermined its autonomy. A primary question guided Méndez Galain’s work: What strategies could lead the country toward long-term energy independence? The physicist developed a detailed plan to move Uruguay toward almost exclusive dependence on renewable energy.

Méndez Galain’s plan was based on two simple facts about his country. First, although there was no domestic supply of fossil fuels such as coal or oil, there was a large amount of wind. Second, that wind was blowing over a country that was largely made up of uninhabited agricultural land. His vision for Uruguay’s energy future was to cover those empty lands with hundreds of wind turbines.

Pablo Capurro, agronomist and livestock engineer, shared with Deutsche Welle his concern at the time about the possible impact of wind turbines on the life of his farm. Capurro and other farmers in the region sought advice from a team of engineers and took a trip to Brazil to visit wind farms in that country. After the trip, they were convinced that the implementation of the wind turbines would not affect the production system.

Capurro’s cows seem not to be affected by the presence of the windmills: “I feel very satisfied for having introduced a wind energy park on a livestock farm.”

In 2010, Uruguay reached a multiparty agreement and adopted the energy transition to indigenous and renewable sources as a state policy, guaranteeing its execution and continuity, Walter Verri, Uruguay’s undersecretary of industry, energy, and mining, explained by telephone in Spanish: “This policy included a long-term perspective and also incorporated the social, ethical, and cultural dimensions in addition to the classic technical-economic analysis of the energy issue.”

The state energy company, UTE, pays rent every year to the owners of the land where the wind farms operate.

Don Quixote, Ivy, and the windmills

In the vision of the ingenious gentleman Don Quixote of La Mancha, windmills stood like defiant giants, reflecting his boundless imagination and idealistic perspective on the world. This mythical interpretation of the windmills resonates with the contemporary perception of wind towers in Uruguay, where they are seen as symbols of a clean and renewable energy source.

Today, Mendez Galain directs the nongovernmental organization Ivy, which means “land without evil” in Guaraní. Guaraní is the native language of the inhabitants of that area and is one of the two official languages ??of Paraguay.

Just as Don Quixote faced the windmills as a challenge that he had to overcome to fulfill his duty as a knight-errant, the installation and maintenance of wind farms in Uruguay also involved facing significant obstacles. From technical challenges to financial and regulatory barriers, the transition to clean energy sources needed a concerted effort to overcome these difficulties and move toward a more sustainable future.

How to pay for all those turbines?

Méndez Galain, winner of the 2023 Carnot Prize, which recognizes distinguished contributions to energy policy, conceived a variation of an approach used by some electric companies in Brazil. These companies operated through public-private partnerships, where the companies were responsible for energy generation, while private entities managed distribution and customer service. Méndez Galain’s innovation lay in reversing that dynamic: Private companies would be responsible for installing and maintaining the wind turbines that would supply Uruguay’s grid, while the public company would continue to distribute the energy to consumers.

This approach had the inherent advantage of transferring the costly initial outlay for the construction of wind turbines to private companies. The state company agreed to acquire all the energy produced by said turbines at a preestablished rate for 20 years.

“Investors need assurance that their investment will be repaid,” Méndez Galain explained during the interview with NPR, “and for that, they need a specific time horizon.”

There was political will for this approach: All parties in Uruguay agreed with the transition.

In 2009, Uruguay began auctions in which wind companies from around the world competed to offer the cheapest renewable energy to the country. In 2011, a specific auction aimed to secure an additional 150 megawatts of wind energy, which would represent approximately 5% of the country’s total power generation capacity. After receiving offers from more than 20 international companies, the professor and his team decided to drastically accelerate the country’s energy transition.

Ultimately, they accepted many more offers than initially planned, signing contracts that expanded Uruguay’s capacity to generate electricity not by 5%, but by more than 40%. Uruguay’s energy grid became powered almost exclusively by domestic renewable sources, and consumer prices, adjusted for inflation, fell.

“Electricity bill prices dropped substantially,” said Alda Novell, a resident of Montevideo, by telephone. Today, Uruguay has more than 700 wind turbines distributed throughout its territory.

“At first glance, the change is seen in many areas of the country: You go down the road and see the modern windmills in rural areas,” Prats said. “Starting in 2010, with the variety of energy sources, and also renewable ones, blackouts became very rare. It was a relief for state coffers not to have to spend on fossil fuels for energy generation.”

For Walter Verri, undersecretary of industry, energy, and mines, the development of renewable energy in Uruguay has been possible thanks to the collaboration of various actors, including the entire political sector and public and private companies.

This energy transformation created new careers, job opportunities, and training pathways in Uruguay, Verri added.

Countries around the world have spent the last decade announcing ambitious goals to reduce the emissions that cause climate change. Few are on track to achieve that goal. Uruguay is a good example that the green transition is still possible.

This article was translated by Climate Cardinals.

Sabin 33 #11 - Is solar energy more expensive than energy from fossil fuels?

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 10:28:48 EST

On November 1, 2024 we announced the publication of 33 rebuttals based on the report "Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles" written by Matthew Eisenson, Jacob Elkin, Andy Fitch, Matthew Ard, Kaya Sittinger & Samuel Lavine and published by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School in 2024. Below is the blog post version of rebuttal #11 based on Sabin's report.

Unsubsidized solar energy is now generally cheaper than fossil fuels. According to the International Energy Agency’s 2020 World Energy Outlook, photovoltaic solar power is “the cheapest source of new electricity generation in most parts of the world,” and “[f]or projects with low cost financing that tap high quality resources, solar PV is now the cheapest source of electricity in history¹.”

Solar energy compares favorably to fossil fuels in terms of levelized cost (i.e., lifetime costs divided by lifetime energy output). According to Lazard’s April 2023 Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis, the mean unsubsidized levelized cost of utility-scale solar PV is $60/MWh². By comparison, the mean unsubsidized levelized cost of gas combined cycle is $70/MWh, the mean unsubsidized levelized cost of coal is $117/MWh, and the mean unsubsidized levelized cost of gas peaking is $168/MWh. The figure below from Lazard shows historical mean unsubsidized LCOE values for different types of utility-scale energy generation.

Figure 1: Selected historical mean unsubsidized LCOE values. This graph reflects the average of the high and low LCOE for each technology in each year. The percentages on the right of the figure represent the decrease in average LCOE since 2009. Source: Lazard (reproduced with permission)².

Lazard attributes the significant historical cost declines for utility-scale renewable energy generation to decreasing capital costs, improving technologies, and increased competition, among other factors. For solar energy, as with onshore wind energy and electric vehicle batteries, historical decreases in costs have correlated with increases in cumulative capacity and sales³. As one example of decreasing costs of solar generation, the figure below from Inside Climate News shows a roughly 90% decline in solar module prices from 2011 to 2023⁴.

Figure 2: Solar price from 2011 to 2023. Source: BloombergNEF/Paul Horn/Inside Climate News.

In addition to the many factors reducing solar’s unsubsidized LCOE, there are substantial subsidies that will further reduce cost on a subsidized basis. In particular, the Inflation Reduction Act is predicted to reduce the subsidized LCOE for solar by 20%–35% by 2030⁵.

Fossil fuels also receive subsidies, albeit smaller subsidies than renewable energy currently received⁶. In fiscal year 2022, the federal government’s tax expenditures for natural gas and petroleum subsidies were $2.1 billion.

One shortcoming of relying on levelized cost as a metric for comparing solar with natural gas and other types of legacy power plants is that levelized cost does not take into account that additional energy generation is needed to compensate for any intermittency. But even when factoring in these so-called firming costs, the subsidized and unsubsidized LCOE of stand-alone solar is lower than the levelized cost of gas peaking and cost-competitive with gas combined cycle across most of the United States⁷. Solar-plus-storage systems are more expensive. However, when factoring in firming costs, both the subsidized and unsubsidized LCOE of solar plus storage is generally within or below the range of LCOE for gas peaking, depending on location within the United States.

Figure 3: LCOE for wind, solar, and solar plus storage, adjusted for the cost of firming intermittency. Source: Lazard (reproduced with permission)².

Footnotes:

[1] World Energy Outlook 2020, Int’l. Energy Agency, 202, 214 (2020)

[2] Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis: Version 16.0, Lazard, 9 (Apr. 2023)

[3] U.S. Global Change Research Program, Fifth National Climate Assessment at 32-29 (2023)

[4] Dan Gearino, Inexpensive Solar Panels Are Essential for the Energy Transition. Here’s What’s Happening With Prices Right Now, Inside Climate News (Jun. 15, 2023)

[5] Ian Bowen et al., How clean energy economics can benefit from the biggest climate law in US history, ICF (Sept. 16, 2022)

[6] Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy in Fiscal Years 2016-2022, U.S. Energy Information Admin., at 3 (Aug. 2023)

[7] Lazard [2] at 8. California is the exception, where the subsidized and unsubsidized LCOE of solar exceeds that of gas combined cycle when factoring in firming costs.

Skeptical Science sincerely appreciates Sabin Center's generosity in collaborating with us to make this information available as widely as possible.

Sabin 33 #10 - Will utility-scale solar farms destroy the value of nearby homes?

Tue, 7 Jan 2025 10:18:34 EST

Data across multiple studies show that utility-scale solar projects do not have major impacts on the values of surrounding properties¹. Rather, the installation of a solar farm typically has only a minor impact on the value of homes closest to it. The most comprehensive study to date, which examined over 1.8 million home transactions near 1,500 large-scale photovoltaic projects across six states, found relatively minor impacts on property values (Elmallah et al. 2023). Homes located within 0.5 miles of solar farms were found to experience price reductions of 1.5%, compared to properties 2–4 miles away. Homes located more than 1 mile from a solar farm were found to experience no statistically significant effect on its price. Similarly, a 2020 study examining 400,000 transactions around 208 utility-scale solar installations in Massachusetts and Rhode Island found a 1.7% decrease in property value for homes located within 1 mile of a project². These declines were concentrated in suburban areas, where there is more competition for space. In rural communities there was no impact on property values. Other studies have also found that utility-scale solar farms have a greater impact on property values in areas with higher residential population density³.

Yet other studies have found that solar panels can have a neutral or even a positive impact on home values. A 2018 study of solar farms in Indiana and Illinois found “no consistent negative impact” to the value of adjacent properties “that could be attributed to proximity to the adjacent solar farm⁴.” Instead, the researchers discovered that properties within 1,320 feet of solar farms sold by an average of 1.92% more than comparable properties that were not located near any solar farms. Another 2018 study examined 956 U.S. solar projects installed before 2016 and found a majority of these projects had a neutral impact on property values.

By contrast, a separate study found that the presence of a fossil fuel fired power plant within 2 miles of one’s home decreased its value by 4–7%, with the largest decreases within 1 mile and for high-capacity plants (Davis 2011). In that study, 92% of the power plants surveyed were fueled by natural gas.

Footnotes:

[1] Richard Kirkland, Grand Solar Impact Study, Kirkland Appraisals, (Feb. 25, 2016); Solar and Property Value, Solar Energy Industries Association (Jul. 2019)

[2] Vasundhara Gaur et al., Property Value Impacts of Commercial-Scale Solar Energy In Massachusetts And Rhode Island, Dep’t. Env’t. and Nat. Res. Econ. U. R.I., 4 (2020)

[3] Leila Al-Hamoodah et al., An Exploration of Property-Value Impacts Near Utility-Scale Solar Installations, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (May 2018)

[4] Patricia McGarr & Andrew Lines, Property Value Impact Study: Proposed Solar Farm, McLean County, IL, at 17, (Aug. 7, 2018)

Skeptical Science sincerely appreciates Sabin Center's generosity in collaborating with us to make this information available as widely as possible.

2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #51

Sun, 22 Dec 2024 10:27:53 EST

A listing of 25 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 15, 2024 thru Sat, December 21, 2024.

Based on feedback we received, this week's roundup is the first one published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if you spot any clear misses and/or have suggestions for additional categories, please let us know in the comments. Thanks!

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts

How much should you worry about a collapse of the Atlantic conveyor belt? Scientists warned recently that the risk “has so far been greatly underestimated.” by Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections, Dec 11, 2024
Shrinking wings, bigger beaks: Birds are reshaping themselves in a warming world by Sara Ryding, Alexandra McQueen and Matthew Symonds, Phys.org - reposted from The Conversation, Dec 16, 2024
New data shows just how bad the climate insurance crisis has become Two congressional reports make clear that, with increasingly frequent hurricanes, floods, and fires, "the model of insurance as it stands right now isn't working." by Tik Root, Grist, Dec 19, 2024

Climate Law and Justice

New Report Shows a Surge in European SLAPP Suits as Fossil Fuel Industry Works to Obstruct Climate Action But experts say these “abusive” lawsuits, which are designed to demoralize and drain resources from activists, should be fought, not feared. by Stella Levantesi, DeSmog, Dec 17, 2024
Montana top court upholds landmark youth climate ruling Montana's Supreme Court upholds a lower court's decision siding with 16 youngsters arguing that the state violated their right to a clean environment. by Max Matza, BBC News, Dec 19, 2024
Montana Supreme Court backs youth plaintiffs in groundbreaking climate trial by Ellis Juhlin, NPR - Montana Public Radio, Dec 18, 2024

Climate Policy and Politics

Anxious scientists brace for Trump`s climate denialism: `We have a target on our backs` Experts express fear – and resilience – as they prepare for president-elect’s potential attacks on climate research by Oliver Milman, The Guardian, Dec 15, 2024
6 Fracking Billionaires and Climate Denial Groups Behind Trump`s Cabinet Trump’s nominees are backed by major players in the world of climate obstruction – from Project 2025 and Koch network fixtures to oil-soaked Christian nationalists. by Joe Fassler, DeSmog, Dec 16, 2024
A new podcast explores the `hot mess` of climate politics Podcast from Citizen's Climate Lobby talks about how the world of climate facts bridges political divides. by Flannery Winchester, Citizens' Climate Lobby, Dec 18, 2024
Tim Ryan is a paid fossil fuel mouthpiece Creating an atmosphere of confusion is a well-rewarded job of work, according to this article. by Emily Atkin, HEATED, Dec 12, 2024
Carbon tax had 'negligible' impact on inflation, new study says University of Calgary professors find that prices are only 0.5% higher due to carbon tax and other measures by Peter Zimonjic, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Dec 12, 2024
Nigel Farage Helps to Launch U.S. Climate Denial Group in UK The Heartland Institute, which questions human-made climate change, has established a new branch in London by Sam Bright, DeSmog, Dec 19, 2024

Climate Science and Research

Trump`s climate threats rattle world`s biggest science meeting Researchers attending the American Geophysical Union conference worry their work could disappear when a president who rejects climate science takes office. by Zack Colman, Chelsea Harvey, E&E News, Politico, Dec 12, 2024
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #51 2024 Skeptical Science's weekly survey of newly published academic research on climate change, plus select government and NGO reports. by Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Skeptical Science, Dec 19, 2024

Climate Science and Research

EU should push for global deal to curb solar geoengineering, advisors say "Europe’s first scientific advice on the technology urges Brussels to prevent its deployment, leaving room for limited outdoor research" by Chloé Farand, Climate Home News, Dec 9, 2024
Columbia Climate School Delegates Reflect on COP29 by Columbia Climate School, State of the Planet, Dec 20, 2024

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science

Sabin 33 #7 - Are solar projects hurting farmers and rural communities? by Sabin Center Team, Skeptical Science, Dec 17, 2024
Fact brief - Are we heading into an 'ice age'? by Sue Bin Park, Skeptical Science, Dec 21, 2024

Miscellaneous (Other)

2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50 A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 8, 2024 thru Sat, December 14, 2024. by Bärbel Winkler, Doug Bostrom & John Hartz, Skeptical Science, Dec 15, 2024
As the Clock Ticks to Act on the Climate Crisis, N.C. Activists Target a `Carbon Plan` Duke Energy’s fossil fuel buildout comes with a roadmap for increased carbon dioxide emissions that will blow past a previously set 2030 deadline for reductions. While regulators have approved, the climate community sees a difficult future. by Lisa Sorg, Inside Climate News, Dec 15, 2024
Six things people say to avoid talking about the climate and human rights "You can't say anything these days!" by Cass Hebron and Issy Pountney, The Green Fix (on Substack), Dec. 18, 2024
Alert fatigue: The phrase that defined our climate in 2024 From "carbon cowboys" to "snow loss cliff," these 10 terms captured the spirit of the hottest year yet. by Kate Yoder, Grist, Dec 18, 2024
Play for the planet: Five climate change games for the festive season Skeptical Science's own Cranky Uncle features in this roundup of fun ways to learn better thinking about our climate. by Lynda Dunlop and Prasad Sandbhor, Phys.org (from The Conversation), Dec 18, 2024
CO2 emissions from new North Sea drilling sites would match 30 years` worth from UK households New research comes as dozens of small potential fields have received some form of license from the government by Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, Dec 20, 2024
2024 Through the Eyes of a Climate Scientist by Adam Levy, ClimateAdam on Youtube, Dec 20, 2024

Climate Adam: 2024 Through the Eyes of a Climate Scientist

Wed, 25 Dec 2024 10:23:42 EST

This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).

2024 has been a series of bad news for climate change. From scorching global temperatures leading to devastating extreme weather, to the rise of climate denying politicians and directionless negotiations. As global warming approaches 1.5 degrees, I thought it was vital to break down how this year has affected me - a climate scientist working on the topic for over a decade. So I'm sharing some of the lessons I've learned, and why the last thing we should be doing right now is despairing.

Support ClimateAdam on patreon: https://patreon.com/climateadam