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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	15 mnt
	Membalas @NateSilver538 Like seriously, Sirota's characterization of the polls is so obviously wrong that it almost verges on gaslighting. pic.twitter.com/6JpQH7ARua
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	19 mnt
	This is complete BS. Sanders was polling at 19-20% in the RCP average at the end of April, and he's at 17.3% now. Rather than surging, he's lost a couple points. realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr… twitter.com/davidsirota/st…
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	52 mnt
	Membalas @NateSilver538 Overall, I remain taken by surprise at how taken by surprise the Sanders campaign seems to be that Biden is polling in front of them. A lot will change between now and Iowa and polls could be off even then, but they seem to have a lot of wishful thinking in lieu of a strategy.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	52 mnt
	Membalas @NateSilver538 For instance, Sanders is doing worse with voters who are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, which might be a sign that he'll *lose* ground with the actual electorate (or in likely voter polls) as compared with the registered voter polls you see now.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	52 mnt
	Membalas @NateSilver538 This adds error/uncertainty, and primary polling is generally a rough enterprise, but the polls are probably about as likely to be overestimating Sanders as underestimating him.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	52 mnt
	Membalas @fshakir Younger voters are harder to reach, but pollsters attempt to compensate for that by upweighting the younger voters they do reach to match their projected composition of the electorate, as @fshakir surely knows.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	52 mnt
	Pretty irresponsible by Sanders campaign manager @fshakir to endorse the theory that polls are "oversampling" older voters. Short THREAD follows: twitter.com/StatusCoup/sta…
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	3 j
	Membalas @NateSilver538 I suppose the polls might sometimes be a small point of context in a larger story, in which case OK, but there's next to no news value in the polls themselves. As an aside, the genre of "what's making the president angry/erratic today?" stories is generally meh on news value.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	3 j
	I'm saying newsrooms should have minimum standards for when they report on polls and those should include exact numbers, dates, sample sizes, who conducted the poll, etc. Those standards should hold whether the polls are public or private. twitter.com/jonathanchait/…
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	3 j
	Membalas @BenjySarlin Huh? We spend *very* little time talking about general election strategy or polling right now, it's maybe 5 percent of what we cover. Primary polls *are* empirically somewhat meaningful at this stage so we spend more time on those. Other news orgs should follow our lead TBH.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	3 j
	Membalas @BenjySarlin It's June 2019. Campaigns' strategies for which states to compete in next November mean basically nothing right now. And if we don't know what those polls actually said, it's hard to know how much they're driving Trump's behavior, which is famously erratic anyway.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	4 j
	Membalas @NateSilver538 Probably also worth remembering that news orgs like NYT put a lot of stock in vague reports about Clinton's rosy internal polls in the closing stages of the 2016 campaign, leading them to ignore public polls showing the race tightening after Comey, etc. fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-y…
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	4 j
	Membalas @dandrezner It could be, though there are circumstances when it might be in a candidate's interest to leak polls showing them doing poorly. But my point is more that internal polls are hard to contextualize, and if readers don't have basic info about what they actually said, it's useless.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	4 j
	Membalas @NateSilver538 Frankly, reporters fuck up all the time when characterizing the meaning of *public* polls, even when they *do* have all the details (exact numbers, dates, sample sizes). Internal polls are harder still to interpret for various reasons, so without the specifics it's useless news.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	4 j
	No it's not. General election polls mean next to nothing this far out anyway. And if we don't know what the polls actually said & instead just get some vague characterization of them, readers lack the basic Journalism 101 information to put the story into any meaningful context. twitter.com/jonathanchait/…
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	4 j
	It's not "fake news" per se. But the news value of reporting on a campaign's "internal polls", without providing specific information about those polls (i.e. exact numbers, dates, sample sizes) that you'd require for a public poll, is pretty close to zero.
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	Micah Cohen @micahcohen	22 j
	We have live in-game win probabilities for the @USWNT and all #WorldCup2019 matches!!! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-womens-wo… pic.twitter.com/Lw180MBbXN
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	11 Jun
	We've re-launched our generic ballot tracker. Democrats currently lead by ~6 points, down from 8-9 points as of the 2018 midterms. twitter.com/FiveThirtyEigh…
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	Chris Herring @Herring_NBA	11 Jun
	Still kind of stunned by what we just saw a few mins ago. A guy re-injured himself after 10-15 mins of playing for the first time in a month. And so many folks really doubted whether he was just being soft for not playing. I hate hot-take culture, man. Hope he's good.
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	Nate Silver @NateSilver538	11 Jun
	Shit, forgot to tweet that we're live-blogging the NBA Finals tonight. But indeed we are --> 53eig.ht/2KFUTE1
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