RobLewis

RobLewis http://www.dailykos.com/user/RobLewis/rss/index.xml News Community Action Copyright 2005 - Steal what you want Tue, 27 Sep 2016 05:37:44 +0000 Tue, 27 Sep 2016 05:37:44 +0000 Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Evolutionary biologist explains how Trump is destroying our political discourse http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/09/19/1571851/-Evolutionary-biologist-explains-how-Trump-is-destroying-our-political-discourse Near the end of Joseph Henrich’s great new book on human evolution, The Secret of Our Success, I was stopped cold by this: <blockquote> [L]anguage has at its core a rather serious cooperative dilemma: lying, deception, and exaggeration. Lying with language is cheap, at least in the short term, and is a potentially powerful way to exploit and manipulate others. The more complex a communicative system is, the easier it is to lie or shade the truth, and get away with it. </blockquote> Remind you of anything? Today’s media certainly form a “complex communicative system”—one that Donald Trump has mastered and plays expertly to his advantage. A bit of background: Henrich is challenging the standard view among anthropologists that the advent of language was the key event that enabled our species to dominate the world. Part of this challenge is pointing out the inherent problems with language. He continues: <blockquote> If this cooperative dilemma is not addressed, the evolution of language…is rather limited. The reason is straightforward. If others are using language to trick or deceive me, I can avoid this by not believing anyone or even by not listening to them at all. If, to avoid being manipulated, everyone stops listening, then there’s no reason to try to communicate. Language will go away or remain limited to those situations where deception or manipulation are too difficult. </blockquote> Henrich goes on to argue that what made language a usable tool was the evolution of social norms against blatant lying—norms that Trump casually and cheerfully discards. Even Trump’s supporters probably know he lies a lot. They know, but they don’t care. They feel they’ve been lied to so much by the mainstream media and establishment politicians that “truth” becomes whatever feels right to you, and Trump’s story about America going to hell definitely feels right to them. And if anyone tries to tell you a different story, just put your fingers in your ears and say “La la la la”. This relates, of course, to the general breakdown of trust in America. Sociologists tell us that a key predictor of the success of a society is the overall level of trust people have for each other (outside their immediate family or tribe). Starting 40 years ago, Republicans taught us not to trust the government, or the media, or the academy, or science. Now Trump is cashing that check, averring that we can’t trust anybody…except him. Because “only he” can solve the problems of uneducated white Americans. Trust him! By essentially disabling any productive use of language in politics, Trump has made it impossible for the media or anyone else to effectively disarm his toxic juggernaut. We’re often told that the media simply aren’t equipped to deal with someone like him. This is why. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Anthropology Book DonaldTrump josephhenrich Language Politics _1571851 Mon, 19 Sep 2016 15:38:54 +0000 Is media "Clinton Fatigue" going to elect Trump? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/09/06/1567236/-Is-media-Clinton-Fatigue-going-to-elect-Trump Question: do the media’s movers and shakers secretly hope that Donald Trump will be our next president? How else to explain their obsessive focus on Hillary’s non-scandals—while essentially giving the orange one a pass on his many instances of unethical and criminal behavior? Let’s face it: if you’re a honcho at a cable channel or major newspaper, there’s an undeniable attraction to a Trump presidency. Covering him is new and fun, and wins you great ratings! What’s not to like? Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is old news. She’s staid and boring and lacks charisma and everybody already knows everything about her. Reporters are sick of her, and of her husband. With Trump in the White House, they could busy themselves for years with profiles and analyses, and maybe even deep dives into his many scandals—there’s a treasure trove of material there for the taking. With HRC as president, is anybody really anxious to do yet another story on her emails, or her foundation, or her cookie recipe, or—god help us—Whitewater? So there you have it: fun, easy, and a ratings winner. What media exec could say no? Sure, some of them pay lip service to the fact that President Trump would be horrible for the country. But when there’s real money at stake… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) DonaldTrump HillaryClinton Media Trump _1567236 Tue, 06 Sep 2016 17:04:48 +0000 David Brooks' Big Lies http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/07/01/1544342/-David-Brooks-Big-Lies <div>I normally ignore NY Times columnist David Brooks, who is such a dependable and predictable shill for the monied elites that he seldom has anything new or interesting to say. But the title of today’s piece, The Coming Political Realignment, caught my eye, so I read it: </div> <div></div> <div> <blockquote><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/01/opinion/the-coming-political-realignment.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region&_r=0">www.nytimes.com/...</a></blockquote> </div> <div>The column is ostensibly about how Donald Trump is redefining our core political debate from Big vs. Small Government to Open vs. Closed Country. Brooks uses the occasion to lecture the unwashed masses about the dangers of reversing course on our free-trade, open-borders agenda that he and his rich clients favor. Just a few little problems with his argument: </div> <div> <ul> <li>He cites a study by the Peterson Institute claiming that "past trade liberalization laws added between $7,100 to 12,900 in additional income to the average household.” <ul> <li>OK, first of all, The Peterson Institute? A billionaire-funded organization whose entire agenda consists essentially of screwing average people by slashing programs like Social Security and Medicare, so we can cut taxes on the ultra-rich. Hardly an unbiased source! </li> <li>And I checked this “study” Brooks cites—know how they came up with those figures? They took the total claimed “additional income” and divided by the number of households. But it’s well known that the 1% have taken almost all income gains in recent years, so the figures are, well, bullshit. The incomes of “average households” have stagnated badly, as everybody knows. </li> </ul> </li> <li>Next, Brooks tells us that "A study by Peter Petri and Michael Plummer estimates that the Trans-Pacific Partnership…would boost American incomes by $131 billion.” <ul> <li>Same problem! How will that sweet $131 billion get distributed? Bernie Sanders is exactly right when he says that our economy works great for billionaires, just not for ordinary people. </li> <li>Petri and Plummer are both affiliated with the Peterson Institute, with personal agendas centered on promoting trade with Asia. </li> <li>And, of course, the TPP is more about protecting the profits of multinational corporations than reducing trade barriers, which are already quite low. </li> </ul> </li> </ul> Brooks is an awful, awful man. <div></div> </div> rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) DavidBrooks FreeTrade Inequality PetePeterson _1544342 Fri, 01 Jul 2016 17:15:32 +0000 Yet another reason inequality hurts everybody http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/05/21/1529309/-Yet-another-reason-inequality-hurts-everybody Mainstream economists (looking at you, Paul Krugman) tend to say “It’s possible that extreme inequality hurts the economy, but we can’t really find any evidence that it does.” Well, <a href="http://www.aflcio.org/Blog/Economy/More-Evidence-on-Why-Inequality-Matters" target="_blank">here's some</a>. Using “Big Data” research techniques, these economists have realized something fundamental (and forgive me if I’m not summarizing it well): businesses live and die by their efforts at growing their customer base. If all income gains go to the top 1%, everybody else is left treading water—the potential new customers are a tiny fraction of the population, and they only buy exclusive, rich-oriented products. Their conclusion: <blockquote> [T]here are two distortions that hurt growth when income grows so unequally. First, if income grows equally, then the 127 million American consumer units (households and families that buy things) all become potential new customers. Firms would then chase them, and the competitive dynamics of the market would create new opportunities to grow or create businesses. But, when only 1% have rising incomes, that is a growth of 1.2 million potential new customers. That is a vastly smaller set of opportunities for firms to grow. Second, it is a limited set of tastes and preferences to go after; it is a market that lacks the scale for creating large numbers of jobs and production efficiencies that come from a mass market of 127 million new customers. This hurts productivity growth, as more jobs are created and aimed at smaller scale production. So, rather than ask individual firms, "What would a $15-an-hour wage mean in paying their workers?" firms should be asked, "What would a 100-fold increase in their customer base mean?" Most firms are more concerned about the latter, without an understanding of ways to make that happen. But, if the economy is to grow, be dynamic and benefit workers and companies both, companies <a name="_GoBack"></a>need to think about what policies make growth more equal. </blockquote> <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/25/1164564/-Taxing-the-rich-it-s-not-about-fairness" target="_blank">I've written before</a> about the many reasons we should tax the rich more heavily (spoiler: it’s not about making them pay “their fair share”). This is yet another one. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Economics Inequality Taxes _1529309 Sat, 21 May 2016 16:19:09 +0000 Boosting off-year turnout for Democrats http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/05/12/1525830/-Boosting-off-year-turnout-for-Democrats Things might be a lot different in Congress and the statehouses if Democrats could get more of their voters to show up for off-year elections. But important groups like young people and minorities tend to sit them out, allowing Republicans to carry the day. On the theory that every little bit helps, here’s a tidbit I picked up from Gilovich and Ross’s recent book, The Wisest One in the Room, which is a collection of insights from social psychology: One group of people was asked “Do you intend to vote?” The other group was asked “Do you intend to be a voter?” Simply changing the focus from “what I do” to “who I am” caused the expressed intention to vote to increase by 10%! Democratic message experts should keep this in mind. If you want to look up the original research paper (I didn’t), the cite is: Bryan, C. J., Walton, G. M., Rogers, T., & Dweck, C. S. (2011) Motivating voter turnout by invoking the self. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 12653–56. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Democratic election Psychology Turnout Voting _1525830 Thu, 12 May 2016 16:14:14 +0000 Democrats and "the vision thing" http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/04/06/1511174/-Democrats-and-the-vision-thing Chris Matthews ended yesterday’s Hardball show with a rant about Hillary Clinton’s lack of any agenda that might inspire voters. “Having the first woman president would be the icing on the cake…but where’s the cake?” he asked. Clinton’s pointed avoidance of any new, dramatic initiatives seems almost calculated to inspire yawns among undecided voters. Opposing her is Bernie Sanders, regularly dismissed as a wild-eyed idealist whose signature programs have zero chance of being enacted. And yet he inspires an intensity of support that Clinton can only dream of. In many ways, it’s the same old story, which is why I keep going back to an <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/01/the-chieftains-and-the-church/302866/" target="_blank">article</a> by Ted Halstead in the Jan/Feb 2004 Atlantic Monthly. While some of it is dated, it’s well worth a look because the fundamental tension between Republicans and Democrats hasn’t changed that much. In particular, this (my emphasis): <blockquote> This inability to advance creative policy solutions hints at yet another problem for the Democrats: the [Democratic Party] is so busy playing defense that it has forgotten how to play offense. When the Republicans were in the minority during the early Clinton years, they introduced one bold proposal after another—never expecting that these would pass in the short run, but hoping to galvanize the party and set precedents for the future. To a considerable degree this worked. </blockquote> These days, Republicans are more focused on obstruction than on proposing any new measures, but when in the modern era have we ever seen Democrats, in the role of the opposition, proposing anything significant, much less bold or galvanizing? Their standard mode has been to run, tail between legs, from anything that could be characterized as “liberal”, while stressing how much they agree with Republican talking points. While this may have been the obvious (if cowardly) defensive strategy in a country that appeared to be moving rightward, it had the unintended consequence of moving the Overton Window further and further in favor of Republicans. Until very recently, the Right has almost completely dictated the terms of the national discussion. That began to change with the Occupy movement, and has been dramatically escalated by the Sanders candidacy. Proclaiming himself a socialist, Sanders drove a stake in the ground far to the left of the prevailing Overton Window, and discovered, to everyone’s surprise, that there was a lot of latent support for a truly progressive agenda. Sometimes a courageous stand will reveal things you never knew existed. Republicans know this; Democrats need to embrace it. Even if Hillary is the eventual nominee, she will benefit from the progressive passion Bernie has revealed and nurtured. And perhaps the Overton Window will shift to a position that reflects the interests of the 99% more than the 1%. Who said it? “Go big or go home!” rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) BernieSanders HillaryClinton progressivism _1511174 Wed, 06 Apr 2016 04:34:03 +0000 David Brooks says "Darn it, what ever happened to civility?" http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/26/1491877/-David-Brooks-says-Darn-it-what-ever-happened-to-civility <div>The monster the Republicans have spent the last 30 years nurturing has escaped its cage, and mild-mannered lapdog of the rich David Brooks thinks it’s a pity: </div> <div></div> <div> <blockquote><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/26/opinion/the-governing-cancer-of-our-time.html">www.nytimes.com/...</a></blockquote> </div> <div>Nice sentiments. But I remember all the way back in the Bush administration when it was noted that Congressional Republicans’ idea of compromise was “give us everything we want or we walk”. </div> <div></div> <div></div> <div>(And in the pundit’s undying premise that “both sides are equally guilty”, Brooks asserts that the hard-liners he bemoans are “best exemplified by the Tea Party but not exclusive to the right”. This is patent, self-consoling bullshit.) </div> rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) DavidBrooks TeaParty _1491877 Fri, 26 Feb 2016 19:21:48 +0000 Scientists ask for prosecution of climate deniers under RICO law http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/09/21/1423309/-Scientists-ask-for-prosecution-of-climate-deniers-under-RICO-law As you probably know, the RICO Act was conceived to go after organized crime. But a group of 20 scientists <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/09/19/letter-to-president-obama-investigate-deniers-under-rico/">has written</a> to the Obama administration, arguing that organized climate deniers meet the criteria for prosecution under the Act. Signers of the letter come from universities all over the country, including, I'm proud to note, two from my home state of Washington. Perhaps the key sentence: <blockquote>A RICO investigation (1999 to 2006) played an important role in stopping the tobacco industry from continuing to deceive the American people about the dangers of smoking.</blockquote> rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Climate Change ClimateChange Environment Recommended RICO _1423309 Mon, 21 Sep 2015 02:02:28 +0000 Lost in Reagan's Revolution: Trust http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/08/29/1416639/-Lost-in-Reagan-s-Revolution-Trust Cross-posted <a href="http://robrites.blogspot.com/2015/08/lost-in-reagans-revolution-trust.html">here</a> I've just finished a wonderful <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Origin-Wealth-Remaking-Economics-Business/dp/1422121038/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1440867576&sr=1-1&keywords=the+origin+of+wealth+evolution+complexity+and+the+radical+remaking+of+economics">book</a> by Eric Beinhocker called The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What it Means for Business and Society.   Generally I'm extremely skeptical of claims about reinventing economics; the usual practitioners of this art are cranks, charlatans, hucksters, or simply people who are ignorant of the field's history. But Beinhocker is a distinguished exception, and if you have any interest in economics you should read his book. I'll probably discuss it more in future posts. But today I want to focus on something that is sort of peripheral to the book's main theme, yet has important implications for American politics. And that is the question, long pondered by social scientists, of why some countries prosper, while others devolve in a downward spiral of poverty and hopelessness. There are lots of proposed answers to this puzzle, most of them ideological in some way. If you're a religious zealot, you'll assert confidently that Country A failed because it had the wrong religion. If you're a free-market fundamentalist, the reason for Country B's failure is of course too much government meddling. There are even a few non-ideological explanations, such as Country C succeeding thanks to its rich natural resources, or geography that protects it from invaders. But this question has by now been studied pretty thoroughly, and none of these explanations will suffice. As just one example, there are resource-poor countries that do quite well (Japan, South Korea), and resource-rich countries that are disasters (much of Africa). One explanation that keeps popping up, though is culture. There are plenty of definitions of the word, but Beinhocker's captures a key point: culture is an emergent characteristic of a group of [people] and is determined by [their] rules of behavior (or norms) for acting in their social environment and for interacting with each other.   A word about this notion of "emergent" behavior. It's a popular theme in the study of complex systems (Beinhocker calls his new framework "Complexity Economics"). It means, among other things, that if you take a bunch of "agents", each guided by simple rules, and set them to interacting with each other, amazingly complex and unexpected things can appear, seemingly out of nowhere. The huge, intricate mounds built by termites aren't designed by termite architects laboring in offices, and their construction isn't supervised by termite foremen wearing tiny hardhats. They simply emerge out of the billions of interactions between the millions of insects in the colony. No individual termite knows the whole scheme, or has a plan for executing it, but the collective "hive mind" gets the job done. Similarly, a society's culture isn't pre-planned: it just emerges from the many interactions between its people, each guided by their personal norms and the norms of the culture as a whole. And there's a feedback loop at work: culture is shaped by norms, and norms in turn are influenced by culture. So the key question is: what kind of cultural norms tend to produce a successful country? A strong work ethic, for sure. A habit of saving for, and investing in, the future. And one of the most critical: simple trust in the people and institutions of the society. Independent of other factors, a society of suspicious, uncooperative people is marked for failure. And that's where Reagan and his fellow travelers have really blown it: by mounting a richly-funded campaign—still in full swing—to destroy Americans' trust in government, higher education, science, the media—even in facts, logic and reason—conservatives have made it harder and harder to unite the citizenry to tackle our problems. And long-term, this is a recipe for failure as a country. Please continue… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Culture Economics free-market RonaldReagan _1416639 Sat, 29 Aug 2015 18:21:12 +0000 New evidence on what really drives stock prices http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/07/01/1398387/-New-evidence-on-what-really-drives-stock-prices The conventional wisdom is that stocks go up when technology improves productivity. But an interesting <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/sources-stock-market-fluctuations-new-evidence">new study</a> tells us that's far from the whole story. The report is written in fairly dense economic-speak, which I don't pretend to fully understand, but the important takeaway is this: roughly half the longer-term variation in stock prices in the postwar era is explained by changes in the share of profits that go to stockholders vs. workers. During the "great compression" of the 1950's and 60's when unions were strong and workers had bargaining power, market growth was below trend. Starting in the late 1970's, the investor class figured out how to capture an ever-greater share of corporate profits for themselves, and the markets took flight. The data indicate that the main source of short-term market volatility was, basically, periodic investor panics that had no relation to actual economic events. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Economics History Productivity Stock Market StockMarket _1398387 Wed, 01 Jul 2015 18:50:29 +0000 Net Neutrality: analyzing the win http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/02/27/1367355/-Net-Neutrality-analyzing-the-win Almost everywhere you look, the news for progressives hasn't been good. Republicans have been seizing control of state after state, and enacting terrible laws. That's what makes the victory on Net Neutrality sort of an outlier. And it's worth asking what was different about this issue that led to such a convincing victory, when it was considered all but dead a year ago. Are there lessons for advocates of other causes? Below are a few thoughts. Add yours in the comments. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Internet Net Neutrality NetNeutrality _1367355 Fri, 27 Feb 2015 17:34:07 +0000 How your new Chevrolet subsidizes your boss's Cadillac http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/02/23/1366248/-How-your-new-Chevrolet-subsidizes-your-boss-s-Cadillac (cross-posted <a href="http://robrites.blogspot.com/2015/02/subsidies-of-scale-how-poor-and-middle.html">here</a>) The idea in a nutshell: economies of scale achieved by mass-producing goods for the lower classes help to make high-end versions of these goods more affordable for the upper classes. Absent the demand generated by the lower classes, these economies of scale would not be attained, and luxury goods would cost far more. Thus, the lower and middle classes are in effect subsidizing the lifestyles of the rich and famous. I call this "Subsidies of Scale". Most of the parts in a Cadillac are identical to, or derived from, parts in a Chevrolet. Most limited-production high-end spirits are produced by distilleries that sell large volumes of more affordable brands. In fact, a large proportion of luxury goods depend on mass consumption of less-costly versions for their availability and affordability. Read on for details... rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) 1 Percent 1Percent Inequality manufacturing _1366248 Mon, 23 Feb 2015 16:05:19 +0000 Understanding "power" vs. "energy" http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/02/03/1361978/-Understanding-power-vs-energy If you're interested in the energy that powers civilization, whether it's clean, dirty, or something else, you really need to understand the distinction between "power" and "energy". They're not the same thing! Reporters who should know better often confuse these terms. I can't count how many times I've read that a new wind farm will generate "250 megawatts per year", when this is actually a meaningless statement. Seriously—even press releases from power companies don't always get it right! In an attempt to bring light to a benighted world, I've teamed up with the publisher of the CleanTechnica website to offer a short article clarifying the meanings of these terms. (CleanTechnica, BTW, is a great source of news about wind and solar energy). Have a look and let me know what you think: <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2015/02/02/power-vs-energy-explanation/">http://cleantechnica.com/...</a> rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Electricity Energy Physics Power Solar Wind _1361978 Tue, 03 Feb 2015 15:50:00 +0000 Strategy for the 2016 Congressional Elections http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/01/15/1357946/-Strategy-for-the-2016-Congressional-Elections It's amazing to see President Obama (finally) taking the initiative with a flurry of policy actions and proposals: immigration, climate change, faster Internet, methane emissions—the list goes on and will probably get longer. Part of the explanation, I'm sure, is that Obama is finally liberated from worrying about the next election and can do whatever he wants (including building a legacy). But I think there's something else in play. And that is…worrying about the next election. I suspect that Obama and the Dems, with all these recent lame-duck policy initiatives, are trying to build a record for the 2016 Congressional elections. They’ll say “Look, we tried to get you faster and cheaper Internet, but the Republican Congress killed it. We tried to fix immigration, but the Republican Congress killed it. We tried to do something about climate change…" And on down the list. "That’s why it’s important to elect more Democrats to Congress!" This strategy is sort of a mirror image of what Republicans did during the Clinton administration: proposing all kinds of things, even while knowing they would never pass. It’s good to see Dems doing the same thing. (Ted Halstead wrote a great piece about this over a decade ago, which is still <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/2004/01/halstead.htm">an interesting read</a> today.) rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) 2016 Barack Obama BarackObama Congress election _1357946 Thu, 15 Jan 2015 18:15:42 +0000 Paul Krugman, Dynamic Scoring, and Ross Perot http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/01/13/1357458/-Paul-Krugman-Dynamic-Scoring-and-Ross-Perot As you probably know, Republicans are corrupting the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office by insisting it use “dynamic scoring”: pretending that tax cuts don’t increase the deficit, even though the clear evidence is that they do. Today <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/13/selective-voodoo/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs%C2%AEion=Body">in his blog, Paul Krugman asks</a> whether they will demand the same kind of scoring on other issues, for which there is plenty of evidence:     • Increasing Medicaid assistance for poor children turns them into healthier, more productive adults who pay more taxes.     • Slashing government spending in a recession increases unemployment and inflicts long-term damage on the economy’s potential. Anybody think the Rethugs will demand "dynamic scoring" of these effects? Obviously not. Krugman’s point is that the Republicans aren’t just practicing voodoo economics, it’s selective voodoo, in which the fantasies that support their ideology are taken seriously, and the facts that undermine it are discounted. I like to imagine what happens in Democratic strategy sessions. On an issue like this, I’ll bet they’re frustrated because they fully recognize the dishonesty and destructiveness of what the Republicans are doing, but they think the issue is too complicated and boring to present to the public. Anybody remember the Presidential candidacy of Ross Perot? Yes, he was a nut, but IMO he did one thing right: he illustrated his talks with actual charts and graphs. The press rolled their eyes and mocked him for this—How absurdly nerdy! Doesn't he know it's all about the horse race?—but then somebody polled the issue and it turned out that voters liked the charts and graphs. And I’ve never understood why almost all politicians treat them as toxic (maybe it’s because when the camera is on the chart, it can’t be on them!) In any case it seems like this would be a perfect opportunity for the Dems to make a case using actual data, illustrated with powerful graphics. What have they got to lose? rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) DynamicScoring Economics PaulKrugman RossPerot _1357458 Tue, 13 Jan 2015 16:35:16 +0000 Gayconomics: a “natural experiment” http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/01/08/1356250/-Gayconomics-a-natural-experiment The other day I happened to overhear a conversation between two people, neither of them fundamentalists or right-wingers of any stripe. The theme of their dialogue was that adopting a gay lifestyle was a conscious, voluntary choice for most homosexuals. This didn’t sound right to me: it seems that most of the research I’ve heard about points in the other direction: that gay people are essentially “born that way.” Then it struck me that we are now in the midst of a natural experiment that could perhaps settle the argument. Read on... rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Economics Gay STRAIGHT Utility _1356250 Thu, 08 Jan 2015 00:21:18 +0000 How Fidel Castro could have saved us from Ronald Reagan http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/12/18/1352721/-How-Fidel-Castro-could-have-saved-us-from-Ronald-Reagan In 1979, a junior diplomat at the State Department named John Graham negotiated a deal with Cuba whereby Castro would use his good relationship with Iran to get the American hostages freed. Graham tells the fascinating story <a href="http://www.life-ontheedge.org/blog-on-the-edge/155-cuba-35-years-late?utm_source=Cuba&utm_campaign=John%27s+blog&utm_medium=email">here</a>. (Full disclosure: Graham is a personal friend, but he has never suggested that I promote his writings.) Graham's deal was a nonstarter due to the State Department's idiotic Cuba policy, but if it had been allowed to go forward, Jimmy Carter would surely have been re-elected in 1980, and had Reagan tried to run again in 1984 he would no doubt have been dismissed as too old. Imagine: no Reagan. The mind reels. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Cuba hostagecrisis Iran JimmyCarter RonaldReagan _1352721 Thu, 18 Dec 2014 17:54:18 +0000 What happens to society when robots replace workers? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/12/11/1351089/-What-happens-to-society-when-robots-replace-workers Don't have time to comment on it, but there's <a href="https://hbr.org/2014/12/what-happens-to-society-when-robots-replace-workers">an excellent piece</a> in Harvard Business Review about the societal challenges that will soon hit us, as more and more workers are replaced by robots. In previous technological revolutions, new jobs have been created to replace those eliminated. But it appears that this time really is different. One estimate: by 2025, the net job loss will mean that the U.S. may have "as many as 40 million citizens of no economic value." Brutal (and to hint at the wide range of social issues that this will involve, does anybody else think these left-behind workers will tend to be disproportionately people of color?) Let's face facts: the highly touted "better education" is not going to solve this. The author, famous venture capitalist Bill Davidow, concludes with this: <blockquote>Ultimately, we need a new, individualized, cultural, approach to the meaning of work and the purpose of life. Otherwise, people will  find a solution – human beings always do – but it may not be the one for which we began this technological revolution.</blockquote> Frankly, I don't know what that even means, and I suspect Davidow may not be entirely clear on it himself. In any case, interesting times are ahead. Update: a panel of leading economists <a href="http://hardware.slashdot.org/story/14/12/17/0512208/economists-say-newest-ai-technology-destroys-more-jobs-than-it-creates">shares the concern</a>. (Of course it must be admitted that "panels of leading economists" don't exactly have a fantastic track record.) rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Employment Robotics Technology _1351089 Thu, 11 Dec 2014 20:18:45 +0000 Clueless solicitation from my Congressman http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/30/1325950/-Clueless-solicitation-from-my-Congressman I just got an email from my Congressman, Rick Larsen (D-WA). It contained this: <blockquote>We desperately need a change in leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives to ensure Congress takes meaningful steps to close the wage gap and expand opportunity for women. YOU have the power to help us. Join us in our fight --</blockquote> followed by links for contributing anywhere from $5 to $100 to his campaign. Now, Larsen is a reliable supporter of the Democratic leadership, but I am often disappointed by his unwillingness to speak out strongly or take a political risk about, well, anything. Basically, he keeps his head down and votes the party line. "Inspiring" isn't a word I'd use to describe him. (Somewhat humorously, his no doubt thoroughly poll-tested slogan is "Solving Local Problems with Common Sense and Hard Work". Miss anything there, Rick?) Here's my reply to his solicitation: <blockquote>Dear Rep. Larsen: This is hilarious. Are you seriously offering the proposition that if I give you money, there could be a “change in leadership” in the House? What planet do you live on?   </blockquote> Claiming that supporting his reelection could lead to Democratic control of the House is at best naive, and at worst misleading. His seat is safely Democratic. It's sad that this dumb (and untrue) message was the best he could come up with. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Congress election House RickLarsen _1325950 Sat, 30 Aug 2014 19:13:19 +0000 I love you, but please stop spamming me http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/21/1279421/-I-love-you-but-please-stop-spamming-me Message to all the politicians who have somehow acquired my email address: I could be wrong, but I don't think the fact that you're a politician looking for campaign contributions exempts you from the laws on unsolicited email. At the very least, you need to provide—in each and every message—a way for the recipient to opt out of future emails. Most respectable businesses seem to comply with this. I can't think of one politician's request for contributions I've received recently that does. Really, I'm on your side and I wish you well. But right now I haven't got any spare money to send you. So please give me a way to unsubscribe. Thank you, and God bless. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Campaign Finance CampaignFinance Spam _1279421 Fri, 21 Feb 2014 20:46:12 +0000 OK, Republicans, what's your end game on unemployment? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/10/1276509/-OK-Republicans-what-s-your-end-game-on-unemployment Republicans have lots of things to say about the problems in the job market. They don't want to raise the minimum wage because it "kills jobs". They don't want to extend unemployment benefits because it would be a "disservice". Obamacare is evil because it provides "an incentive to work less". It's time somebody made them think through their position and see where it logically leads. Because it's truly amazing. Start with their "free market" dogma: labor is a commodity like any other, and in a free market there is no such thing as unemployment, because wages will fall until the supply of labor equals the demand and everybody who wants a job will have one. If Max the grocer won't hire somebody to sweep the floor for $10 an hour, then maybe he will for $8, or $7…or $4. At some level of pay, the "market will clear" and involuntary unemployment will vanish. At least, that's the theory. But there's a huge, giant, gaping problem with this, and Republicans are simply ignoring it. Read on to see what it is… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) FreeMarket MinimumWage Unemployment _1276509 Mon, 10 Feb 2014 20:50:08 +0000 Once again, the Pentagon is determining U.S. industrial policy http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/01/16/1270186/-Once-again-the-Pentagon-is-determining-U-S-industrial-policy This is actually good news in a way, because it's providing a back-door subsidy to clean energy. But it blows another right-wing meme. Conservatives always recoil in horror when anybody suggests that the U.S. might consider an actual industrial policy: that is, giving government support to fledgling industries that have high potential for future success. The government shouldn't try to "pick winners"—that's a job ONLY for the so-called Free Market! But the inconvenient truth is that we have always had a de facto industrial policy, and it's called weapons procurement. The Pentagon, which has infinite money, is ever on the lookout for new technologies that will enable them to build the biggest, baddest, smartest weapons in the world. And they'll pay whatever price it takes to be first in line for the new toys. And if that's not industrial policy, then nothing is. Want to know why we have a thriving microchip industry? Because back in the 1970's the DoD was willing to pay "absurd" prices for the first primitive chips. This enabled the chip makers like Intel to improve their products and processes and reduce costs, and you know the rest. No Pentagon, no commercial microchips. Simple as that. And it looks like <a href="http://www.siliconbeat.com/2014/01/16/military-deployment-of-clean-technology-accelerates/">they're doing it again</a> with clean energy… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Clean Energy CleanEnergy industrialpolicy Pentagon Solar Energy SolarEnergy _1270186 Thu, 16 Jan 2014 21:37:24 +0000 Traffic studies are so 1980s http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/01/15/1269884/-Traffic-studies-are-so-1980s Just a quick note about <a href="http://tech.slashdot.org/story/14/01/14/1855222/engineers-traffic-studies-use-simulation-software-not-lane-closings">this discussion</a> on Slashdot: In the 21st century, nobody in their right mind would close critical traffic lanes just to see what happens. Traffic patterns can be simulated with high precision using computers. No need to create all that real havoc when virtual havoc tells you all you need to know. Unless, of course, you have some ulterior motive. <blockquote>"The so-called 'traffic study' that closed New Jersey access lanes on the heavily traveled George Washington Bridge last September has left engineers scratching their heads, because in modern America, simulation software is used instead of closing down lanes. One of the best sources for simulation data are video camera systems that use software to count vehicles on roadways. Traffic studies use microscopic traffic simulations to create virtual environments that can model driver behavior to road changes with exacting detail. Instead, the Port Authority, under Gov. Chris Christie, shut down two of the three access lanes for four days last September from Fort Lee to the George Washington Bridge without warning the public, citing a 'traffic study.' 'I would be pretty confident that if we knew exactly which lanes are closed we could replicate that, and it would show exactly how bad the backups are going to be,' said Lorenzo Rotoli, an engineer and vice president at Fisher Associates, a civil engineering firm in New York that works on roads, bridges and signal systems."</blockquote> rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) bridgegate ChrisChristie New Jersey NewJersey _1269884 Wed, 15 Jan 2014 20:14:59 +0000 Gartner forecasts social unrest as technology displaces workers http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/14/1255587/-Gartner-forecasts-social-unrest-as-technology-displaces-workers For those who don't know, <a href="http://www.gartner.com">Gartner</a> is a leading technology research and consulting company that specializes in analyzing and forecasting where technology is going and what the likely repercussions will be. <a href="http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9243038/As_the_digital_revolution_kills_jobs_social_unrest_will_rise">As reported by Computerworld</a>, they see trouble ahead. Their basic take—that technology will continue to replace jobs—isn't exactly new, but they have some specific predictions, overleaf… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Gartner Inequality Occupy Wall Street OccupyWallStreet PaulKrugman Technology _1255587 Thu, 14 Nov 2013 18:52:46 +0000 U.N. to adopt asteroid defense plan http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/10/31/1252088/-U-N-to-adopt-asteroid-defense-plan Uh oh. The evil United Nations. is <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=un-asteroid-defense-plan">trying to get all up in our business</a> again: I suspect this will lead to the formation of a new group of "asteroid denialists". No doubt led by Michele Bachmann. Here's how it will go: 1. Asteroids don't exist. 2. If they do exist, they can't hit Earth. 3. If one does hit Earth, it will actually be beneficial. 4. If they are a threat to Earth, it says in the Bible that God will protect the righteous people. 5. If an asteroid does destroy earth, that will be a good thing because it will bring on the Rapture. Unconfirmed rumor: George Soros is involved. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Asteroids Science UnitedNations _1252088 Thu, 31 Oct 2013 17:26:41 +0000 Yet another tiny cut, thanks to austerity http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/09/30/1242574/-Yet-another-tiny-cut-thanks-to-austerity In the "death by a thousand cuts" category: A <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2013/09/30/226844915/to-get-the-benefits-of-olive-oil-fresh-may-be-best">big story</a> on NPR's Morning Edition touts the benefits of olive oil in the diet, but notes that for maximum benefit, the oil must be fresh. Unfortunately, a lot of imported oil isn't. The story contains this seemingly anodyne statement: <blockquote>[T]he U.S. Food and Drug Administration used to police olive oil imports to ensure producers were meeting quality and freshness standards. But those efforts have fallen off.</blockquote> Eh--a bunch of lazy bureaucrats sticking their noses into our glorious free market: who needs 'em? Of course, the article doesn't say why those efforts have "fallen off", but would you care to guess it might have something to do with austerity, possibly backed by industry lobbying? OK, friends, how much in additional taxes would you personally be willing to pay to make sure your olive oil was healthy? A quarter a year? And Randians: please explain to me how the so-called "free market" could address a problem like this. Maybe some feisty entrepreneur will get rich selling "do-it-yourself olive oil testing kits" and we can all spend our time testing samples of the oils on the store shelves. Smell the Freedom! Multiply this little case by a thousand, and that's the utopia conservative ideology has created for us. Pathetic. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) austerity FDA FoodSafety _1242574 Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:50:50 +0000 The innovation guru talks politics http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/09/01/1235497/-The-innovation-guru-talks-politics I've long been a fan of Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen. His landmark 1997 book The Innovator's Dilemma has changed the way managers deal with innovation and competition in today's fast-moving markets. He's continued to expand his ideas into addressing the problems of specific industries (his book on health care, The Innovator's Prescription, is well worth reading). One of Christensen's key insights is his conception of products and services as things that people "hire" because they have a job to do. He urges marketers to stop looking at customers as members of this or that demographic group, and instead to focus on their "jobs to be done" and to design products that do these jobs in a way that's as quick, simple, convenient and inexpensive as possible. Last October, in an <a href="http://www.niemanlab.org/2012/10/clay-christensen-on-the-news-industry-we-didnt-quite-understand-how-quickly-things-fall-off-the-cliff/">interview</a> about the problems and future of the news reporting industry, Christensen made a very interesting side comment about politics and the presidential campaign. Read on to see it… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) ClaytonChristensen Demographics Innovation Politics _1235497 Sun, 01 Sep 2013 16:52:17 +0000 When can we start roasting the climate deniers? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/07/1229509/-When-can-we-start-roasting-the-climate-deniers As David Atkins points out <a href="http://www.digbysblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/2012-in-top-ten-hottest-years-in.html">here</a>, at least some journalists seem to be dropping their false balance, "views differ on shape of planet" posture in favor of reporting the simple, frightening facts about climate change. That represents progress, and is actually kind of a big deal. If the trend continues, it could mean that not even the Koch brothers with their billions will be able to keep derailing any action by confusing people with disinformation. But here's my question, and I think it's something progressives need to be thinking about: once their last shred of bogus credibility is gone, will the climate deniers be allowed to just slink quietly away, or will there be any effort to hold them accountable for the catastrophe they had a major role in creating? rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Climate Change ClimateChange ClimateDeniers Global Warming GlobalWarming Koch Brothers KochBrothers _1229509 Wed, 07 Aug 2013 15:54:23 +0000 The NSA's spying tentacles go deeper http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/07/15/1223782/-The-NSA-s-spying-tentacles-go-deeper Wow. My old friend Steve Blank, a legendary Silicon Valley entrepreneur with a longstanding interest in the government's high tech spying, has described yet another way the NSA may be intercepting virtually everything we do with our digital devices. As he details in <a href="http://steveblank.com/2013/07/15/your-computer-may-already-be-hacked-nsa-inside/">Your Computer May Already Be Hacked — NSA Inside?</a>, the agency may be exploiting the ability of microchips to install bugfix "microcode updates" when they start up, to open a secret "back door" into your PC or other device that gives them access to everything you do before you even get a chance to try to protect it with encryption. As he notes, "Given the technical sophistication of the other parts of their surveillance net, the surprise would be if they haven't implemented a microcode backdoor." And this nullification of your privacy can easily be disguised in something as innocent-seeming as a typical Windows Update. He continues: <blockquote>The downside is that 1) backdoors can be hijacked by others with even worse intent. So if NSA has a microcode backdoor - who else is using it? and 2) What other pieces of our infrastructure, (routers, smartphones, military computers, satellites, etc) use processors with uploadable microcode? ------ And that may be why the Russian president is now using a typewriter rather than a personal computer. </blockquote> Note that deciphering encrypted messages takes some time and work. But a backdoor would give the spooks access to everything you do, effortlessly. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) BackDoor Encryption Intel NSA Recommended Security Spying _1223782 Mon, 15 Jul 2013 15:24:09 +0000 Republican goal: "Obama Fatigue" http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/06/02/1213210/-Republican-goal-Obama-Fatigue Remember "Clinton Fatigue"? It was the notion that people—even people who basically supported Bill Clinton—eventually got so sick of all the ginned-up "scandals" surrounding his administration that they finally just wanted it to be over. When they turned on their TVs, they wanted something—anything!—besides Whitewater or Monica's dress blaring at them. Supposedly, Clinton Fatigue was part of the reason Al Gore "lost" in 2000, and it was probably part of the reason that Gore chose—wrongly, it appears—to downplay his connection to the Clinton administration. Nonetheless, it probably cost Gore some votes. Now, of course, the Republicans have a new target for their efforts to induce voter fatigue, and they're giving it their best shot. And complicating the picture is the fact that waiting on deck to succeed Obama is … another Clinton! rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) 2016 Barack Obama BarackObama Clintonfatigue Hillary Clinton HillaryClinton _1213210 Sun, 02 Jun 2013 15:12:25 +0000 WaPo reports China has stolen our military secrets. Freakout time? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/05/29/1212399/-WaPo-reports-China-has-stolen-our-military-secrets-Freakout-time Looks bad: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/confidential-report-lists-us-weapons-system-designs-compromised-by-chinese-cyberspies/2013/05/27/a42c3e1c-c2dd-11e2-8c3b-0b5e9247e8ca_story.html">Confidential report lists U.S. weapons system designs compromised by Chinese cyberspies</a> But if you want to be cynical, it's worth noting that claiming the Chinese have stolen the designs of our most advanced weapons plays directly to the interests of the military-industrial complex: "OMG, if they know about today's best, then we have to spend billions more developing weapons that are even better!" Of course, there's a precedent for this: the same military-industrial complex issued panic alarms about how the Russians were surpassing us militarily during the Cold War, when (we later learned) they weren't even close. That's how the defense budget piled bloat on top of bloat. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) China Cyber War CyberWar Military-IndustrialComplex _1212399 Wed, 29 May 2013 17:09:20 +0000 Austerity Kills http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/05/21/1210682/-Austerity-Kills Great <a href="http://www.democracynow.org/2013/5/21/why_austerity_kills_from_greece_to">piece</a> on Democracy Now! about the new book The Body Economic: Why Austerity Kills. <blockquote>The authors estimate there have been more than 10,000 additional suicides and up to a million extra cases of depression across Europe and the United States since governments started introducing austerity programs in the aftermath of the economic crisis.</blockquote> Austerity isn't just bad for the economy: it's bad for the health of citizens. The authors analyzed "natural experiments" to show that it isn't simply bad economic times that lead to depression, suicide, and alcoholism—it's how governments respond to bad economic times. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) austerity Economics Health _1210682 Tue, 21 May 2013 15:52:17 +0000 The conservative case for raising the minimum wage http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/05/12/1208591/-The-conservative-case-for-raising-the-minimum-wage Listening to Republican politicians, you would think that the Right is unanimously opposed to raising the "job killing" minimum wage. However, there has been a good deal of serious argument by conservatives in favor of raising it—in some cases, up to $12 or even $15. I'm no conservative apologist, but I think it's worth noting some of their points. I rely mostly for this on the writings of Ron Unz, the publisher of The American Conservative. Just Google "Unz minimum wage" and you'll find them, starting with his piece "<a href="http://www.ronunz.org/2012/11/15/raising-american-wages-by-raising-american-wages/">Raising American Wages…by Raising American Wages</a>". On to the substance of the matter… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Conservative Economy MinimumWage RonUnz _1208591 Sun, 12 May 2013 16:19:52 +0000 Switzerland to limit executive pay http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/03/05/1191804/-Switzerland-to-limit-executive-pay So the Swiss, those stolid, conservative burghers, have decided "enough" on obscenely high pay for corporate executives: <a href="http://yro.slashdot.org/story/13/03/04/1727249/swiss-referendum-backs-executive-pay-curbs">Via Slashdot</a> 68% of voters approved a change to their constitution: <blockquote>The new measures will give Switzerland some of the world's strictest corporate rules. Shareholders will have a veto over salaries, golden handshakes will be forbidden, and managers of companies who flout the rules could face prison.</blockquote> Sixty-eight percent! Reportedly, interest in this "fat cat initiative" has been fueled by disasters at major Swiss companies in which the executives were allowed to keep their high salaries and bonuses. Hmm, that sounds vaguely familiar. Maybe we should include a provision like this in our upcoming constitutional amendment outlawing corporate personhood. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) CorporatePersonHood executivepay Inequality Switzerland _1191804 Tue, 05 Mar 2013 17:56:20 +0000 Shock: Chinese military hacking U.S. industries http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/02/19/1188264/-Shock-Chinese-military-hacking-U-S-industries Why don't we just acknowledge that both countries are doing their damnedest to hack each other? In fact, I'd be disappointed if the U.S. wasn't doing it. Duh. It's probably a good thing if China is doing this because it gives us the motivation to improve our security. What's really shocking is how open and insecure a lot of critical systems are to being hacked. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/19/china-hacking-attacks-us_n_2715137.html?utm_hp_ref=daily-brief?utm_source=DailyBrief&utm_campaign=021913&utm_medium=email&utm_content=NewsEntry&utm_term=Daily%20Brief">Story</a> rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) China Hacking Security _1188264 Tue, 19 Feb 2013 16:57:48 +0000 Can computers save health care? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/02/15/1187261/-Can-computers-save-health-care I've never really bought the story that health care expenditures are destined to just keep growing forever. All those gloomy projections assume that advancing technology will, if anything, make health care more expensive, not less. And in fact, that has been largely true for some time. But now, there's <a href="http://newsinfo.iu.edu/news/page/normal/23795.html">this</a> from Indiana University: <blockquote>Using an artificial intelligence framework combining Markov Decision Processes and Dynamic Decision Networks, IU School of Informatics and Computing researchers Casey Bennett and Kris Hauser show how simulation modeling that understands and predicts the outcomes of treatment could reduce health care costs by over 50 percent while also improving patient outcomes by nearly 50 percent.</blockquote> 50% better outcomes, at half the cost? Sign me up! This research is aimed at addressing three big problems in our current system: • Costs expected to reach 30% of GDP by 2050 • The fact that patients receive correct diagnosis and treatment less than half the time on their first visit • A lag of 13–17 years between research and clinical practice No word yet on whether the software includes built-in Death Panels. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Computers Health Care HealthCare healthcarecosts Medicare _1187261 Fri, 15 Feb 2013 00:40:39 +0000 To beat the Taliban, we should airdrop…women! http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/02/09/1165134/-To-beat-the-Taliban-we-should-airdrop-women OK, headline is tongue-in-cheek. But there's a serious point here. It's well known by sociologists that having large numbers of young, unmarried men is destabilizing to a society. Often they assemble into roving bands of lawless hoodlums that cause all kinds of trouble. They're prone to joining fanatic and/or paramilitary movements. We also know the old cliché is true: getting married tends to settle a man down. On this particular score, the benighted country of Afghanistan has at least two strikes against it. Maybe three. Here's what I mean: rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Afghanistan Islam Marriage Polygamy Polygyny Population Taliban _1165134 Sat, 09 Feb 2013 16:18:05 +0000 Republican rebranding? Don't make me laugh. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/02/07/1185258/-Republican-rebranding-Don-t-make-me-laugh You thought this was going to be a post about how Republicans are trying to change the packaging without changing what's inside, didn't you? Nope. In fact, let's assume for the moment that our friends in the GOP really, truly, sincerely want to change their policies and not just their image (I know, but still…) My point is that even if this were true, any "rebranding" they might attempt—even if perfectly executed—likely wouldn't have much effect until after Hillary Clinton's second term. Rome wasn't built in a day. And neither are brands. Flip over for more… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Advertising Message Rebranding Republican Party RepublicanParty _1185258 Thu, 07 Feb 2013 13:30:08 +0000 Do gun deaths correlate with economic pain? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/02/01/1184010/-Do-gun-deaths-correlate-with-economic-pain I haven't seen this addressed in the discussions about curbing gun violence, but it seems highly plausible that gun incidents may be correlated with the ups and downs of the economy. I'm no statistician, but I wonder what a plot of shootings vs., say, the unemployment rate would look like. And of course you'd want to include suicides, too. I'd expect the Right would try to suppress any discussion of this, since if a connection were found, it would be one more reason for the government to help the victims of the bad economy, and to do something to address unemployment. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Gun Violence Guns gunviolence stimulus Unemployment _1184010 Fri, 01 Feb 2013 21:46:53 +0000 James Fallows and the "surveillance state" http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/12/1178368/-James-Fallows-and-the-surveillance-state Atlantic senior reporter James Fallows has been an active private pilot for some years. Now, flying your own small plane is an expensive proposition and would be even more expensive if not for the generous tax breaks given to people who use their planes in business. What this means is that the stereotypical private pilot is a successful independent businessman, professional, or entrepreneur, most likely white, male, and middle-aged or older. In other words, a Republican. Fallows breaks the mold in this respect, but he clearly shares some interests with the flying crowd. On his Atlantic web page, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/01/annals-of-the-security-state-glider-pilot-edition/267080/">he tells the story</a> of a pilot in South Carolina who was ordered to land, arrested, and jailed for over 24 hours. His crime? He apparently strayed too close to a nuclear power plant situated right next to the small airport he was maneuvering to land at. The official government charts do not have the slightest indication that this is airspace to be avoided. Apparently the homeland security cops considered shooting him down before ordering him to land. So it's interesting to speculate what the typical Republican aviator, who is all about the "freedom of the skies," would think about this overreach by the surveillance state. Sure, they're just trying to "keep us safe," but it does get a little annoying if you're threatened and jailed for exercising your freedom. A little more cognitive dissonance for the Republican base? rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Aviation Homeland Security HomelandSecurity JamesFallows Surveillance _1178368 Sat, 12 Jan 2013 17:00:09 +0000 Are Republicans headed for a "Tragedy of the Commons"? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/12/30/1174881/-Are-Republicans-headed-for-a-Tragedy-of-the-Commons An interesting dynamic is shaping up for the 2014 House elections. It could wind up being a classic Tragedy of the Commons, wherein what is in each individual member's own interest winds up being a huge loss for the Republicans as a party. As I write this, the Republicans are on the verge of pushing the country over the fiscal curb. Much more dangerously, they seem willing to hold the debt ceiling hostage in their tantrum to get their way (or, as <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/30/the-hostage-drama-begins/">Krugman says</a>, to "use vandalism to subvert the constitutional process"). Clearly, they're adopting these extremist positions in deference to their ultraconservative base (whether or not you want to call them "Tea Partiers"). They're desperately afraid of getting primaried in 2014. But if they do wind up wreaking severe damage on the economy, the voters aren't likely to look kindly at them in the general election. The result would be an almost certain Democratic takeover of the House. So the choice is: (a) be a little bit reasonable and sensible and risk losing the primary, or (b) stick to your wingnut guns and get booted in the general. I expect most of them will choose option (b), leading to a classic Tragedy of the Commons for the Party. Frankly, though, that's a tragedy I could live with. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Congress Fiscal Cliff FiscalCliff Republicans tragedyofthecommons _1174881 Sun, 30 Dec 2012 22:01:40 +0000 Some simple facts about the budget and taxes http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/12/30/1174819/-Some-simple-facts-about-the-budget-and-taxes Republicans claim they want smaller government. There is a simple, proven way to accomplish this: make citizens pay for all the government they use. Do this, and you will see the public's appetite for government spending programs decline notably. This means, of course, higher taxes. And it directly contradicts the Right's notion that "starving the beast", or as St. Reagan put it, "cutting the government's allowance", will be effective in limiting spending. On the contrary, tax cuts actually increase the demand for government services by reducing their apparent cost. Even the libertarian Cato Institute knows this, as <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/07/16/884881/-Re-Krugman-Starve-the-Beast-doesn-t-work?detail=hide">I've written about before</a>. So if the Right really wanted to reduce spending and cut the deficit, they'd be pushing tax increases. But as we know, all they really care about is keeping taxes low for the rich. Which is something that a large majority of Americans oppose. Democrats should be a lot more aggressive in making this point. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Budget Deficit starvethebeast Taxes _1174819 Sun, 30 Dec 2012 17:34:58 +0000 Did the Newtown shooter suffer from "Lyme Rage"? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/12/20/1172148/-Did-the-Newtown-shooter-suffer-from-Lyme-Rage I was listening to Ed Schultz this morning when a man identifying himself as a doctor came on the air and urged that the body of Adam Lanza, the Newtown shooter, be immediately tested for Lyme Disease. He said something neither Schultz nor I had ever heard before: Lyme Disease can affect the brain and cause violent outbursts. They even have a name for it: "Lyme Rage". As you may know, Connecticut is Ground Zero for Lyme Disease; in fact the disease is named after the town of Lyme, CT. And Newtown is a fairly rural area, about 50 miles due west of Lyme, with no doubt plenty of tick-infested deer around. There seems to be lots of information on Google about Lyme Rage. If you're interested in researching it, here's a <a href="http://www.underourskin.com/news/scientific-evidence-lyme-rage">link to get you started</a>. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) AdamLanza Gun Control GunControl LymeDisease NewTown _1172148 Thu, 20 Dec 2012 01:22:11 +0000 Dawn of a new/old understanding of the economy? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/12/11/1168965/-Dawn-of-a-new-old-understanding-of-the-economy If you've been reading Paul Krugman for the last few days, you know that he's latched onto the issue of the changing distribution of income between workers and owners. He admits that he and other economists were basically blindsided by it, and I'm sure we can look forward to much fruitful discussion in the days to come. It could be one of the more important developments in economics in quite some time. Below is a summary with some thoughts. It's pretty interesting, and a little frightening… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Capital Economy Jobs PaulKrugman Reshoring Robots Wages _1168965 Tue, 11 Dec 2012 18:25:22 +0000 Taxing the rich: it's not about "fairness" http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/25/1164564/-Taxing-the-rich-it-s-not-about-fairness Listen to just about any liberal speak about the budget and taxes these days, and it won't be long before you hear the phrase "The rich need to pay their fair share." This is one of those standard lines in politics that has become so universal and commonplace in the progressive world that it's barely noticed any more. It's a mental checkbox that everyone on the Left ticks without thinking about it. Of course the rich should pay their fair share: only a sociopath would disagree with a statement like that, in the abstract anyway. But there's the rub: the statement is only widely acceptable because everyone gets to define it however they like. "What's fair is fair," we sometimes say. Well, not really… Frankly, for a while now, the call for "fair share" taxation has been making me vaguely uncomfortable every time I hear it. Whenever some liberal icon like Paul Krugman or Bernie Sanders would repeat it, I'd give the obligatory mental nod, but somewhere in the back of my mind I'd feel a tiny tug of rebellion—and then I'd dismiss it and move on with whatever I was reading or listening to. To the extent that this feeling received conscious articulation, it was along the lines of "They need to come up with a better argument than 'fair share'." And they do. Because—it should be obvious, really—it's going to be a frosty day in Miami before Americans achieve anything approaching a consensus about what constitutes an appropriate tax level for the top echelons of society. And while a majority of Americans agree that the rich should pay more, the devil is in the details of just how much more would be "fair." Which leads me to say "to hell with fairness." Here's why… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Economy Fair Share FairShare Fiscal Cliff FiscalCliff Inequality Recommended rescued RescuedtoRecommended Taxes _1164564 Sun, 25 Nov 2012 19:51:20 +0000 The Real War within the GOP http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/13/1161143/-The-Real-War-within-the-GOP Since last week's election, we're hearing a lot about the "war within the GOP". Oversimplifying a bit, it's described as the battle between the "Romney lost because he's not a true conservative" contingent and the "He lost because our shrinking base of angry white geezers forced him into adopting positions that mainstream voters reject" folks. It's clear to most of us in the reality-based community which side has a better grip on the truth, but of course that's no guarantee that the sensible heads will prevail. But a few things in the post-mortem analysis have pointed out an entirely separate schism that I think may be an even more important key to the future of the Republic party. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) ChrisHayes Conservatism DavidFrum Elections Media Recommended rescued RescuedtoRecommended Rush Limbaugh RushLimbaugh SteveKornacki _1161143 Tue, 13 Nov 2012 18:12:27 +0000 Dear Sarah Palin: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/11/1160182/-Dear-Sarah-Palin Thanks for asking! I'm happy to report that the Hopey Changey Thing is going pretty well, thank you. I might even say surprisingly well, given that your party has done everything they can think of to kill it. Let me return the favor by asking: how is that "build wealth, power, influence, and celebrity through right-wing politics" thing going for you? Call me, OK? Your fan, --Barack rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Barack Obama BarackObama Hopey Changey HopeyChangey Sarah Palin SarahPalin Snark _1160182 Sun, 11 Nov 2012 15:30:10 +0000 Fixing our elections with technology http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/09/1159719/-Fixing-our-elections-with-technology I know: nobody trusts electronic voting. Too easy to tamper with. But bear with me: there is a way to bring our voting into the 21st century. Here's one possibility: Imagine that when you register to vote, you're given a small USB "dongle" (like the thumb drives are available everywhere for the price of a cappuccino). It's protected by a password that only you have (and you can change whenever you want). To vote, you simply plug it into any computer that has access to the Internet. At your home, your office, the library, city hall, wherever and whenever. The computer connects to the voting site, and you enter your choices. All information is encrypted at every stage. The vote-tallying computer identifies your dongle, not you. It has no idea who you are, so your ballot remains secret. But it can easily tell if two people try to use the same dongle (or a copy of it), and sound the "fraud" alarm (which ought to make the Republicans happy). And of course, any vote from an unrecognized dongle would be simply ignored. Consider the benefits… rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Elections ElectronicVoting internetvotingelectionfraud VoterFraud Voting _1159719 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 21:56:29 +0000 What if 2012 is a mirror image of 2000? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/04/1155357/-What-if-2012-is-a-mirror-image-of-2000 As we've seen discussed, it's entirely possible that on Tuesday, President Obama could lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College. Remind you of anything? Furthermore, we know that polling in Florida is already screwed up and likely to get worse. Remind you of anything else? So here's the nightmare scenario: the election hinges on the Florida results, and the Supreme Court gets involved. Of course the right-wing majority would like to simply hand the victory to Rmoney, but really, how would that look? They already said—to their undying shame—in their Bush v. Gore decision that it must never be used as a precedent for anything else. Of course, shame doesn't seem to be a motivator when we're talking about Republicans. But a case can be made that Chief Justice Roberts upheld Obamacare in order to preserve some shred of the SCOTUS's tattered dignity. I wonder if he'd do the same in a contested election. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) Bush v. Gore BushvGore election Florida Supreme Court SupremeCourt _1155357 Sun, 04 Nov 2012 17:21:31 +0000 Republican anti-truth squad strikes again http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/02/1154293/-Republican-anti-truth-squad-strikes-again Not that this should surprise anyone, but the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service produced a report showing (yet again) that tax cuts for the wealthy do not stimulate economic growth or create jobs, and Republicans had a hissy fit and got the report withdrawn. Story <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/business/questions-raised-on-withdrawal-of-congressional-research-services-report-on-tax-rates.html?src=recg">here</a>. <blockquote>The decision [to withdraw the report], made in late September against the advice of the agency’s economic team leadership, drew almost no notice at the time. Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, cited the study a week and a half after it was withdrawn in a speech on tax policy at the National Press Club.…The pressure applied to the research service comes amid a broader Republican effort to raise questions about research and statistics that were once trusted as nonpartisan and apolitical.</blockquote> I thought this part was hilarious: <blockquote>Mr. McConnell and other senators “raised concerns about the methodology and other flaws.”</blockquote> Yes, that well-known expert on statistical methodology, Mitch McConnell, "raised concerns." Sheesh. rss@dailykos.com (RobLewis) CongressionalResearchService Economy Republicans _1154293 Fri, 02 Nov 2012 16:51:47 +0000