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		<title>Comment on Unforced variations: July 2016 by Andrew</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/07/unforced-variations-july-2016/comment-page-5/#comment-658209</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jul 2016 13:16:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19515#comment-658209</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: #194 Bill Henderson
Bill, thanks for the three links in your comment. I had already read the imo essential article by Oliver Geden which more or less discusses the issue of &quot;shifting baselines&quot;. I had also read the April 2014 article by Michael Mann and a subsequent article in which he explains why atmospheric CO2 concentration of 405ppm is the real limit for a 50% chance of staying under 2C warming (includes an overshoot of approximately 0.5C due to removal of aerosols) according to the latest climate models. The paleoclimate article by Dr. James Hansen and others is I believe from 2004 (quoting from the article: &quot;... CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385ppm to at most 350ppm...&quot;) and the situation which he described as leading to catastrophic effects then, is nowadays much worse. The exact quote is: &quot;Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions,
for just another decade, practically eliminates the possibility of near-term return of atmospheric
composition beneath the tipping level for catastrophic effects.&quot;
Needless to say, another decade has passed, we are at 405ppm in 2016, and 2014 and 2015 were the hottest years on record, while 2016 is much on track to be even hotter, and by a record margin.
So the question remains: why aren&#039;t most climate scientists declaring a climate emergency, and why aren&#039;t most governments pushing for emergency policies to reduce carbon emissions?
In particular, in his April 2014 Michael Mann states that &quot;... I found that for an ECS of three degrees C, our planet would cross the dangerous warming threshold of two degrees C in 2036...&quot;. But that was written practically 12 months before 2014 was declared the hottest year on record, and then 2015 became the hottest year on record, and as we all know, 2016 is on its way to become the hottest year on record, while simultaneously the increase in atmospheric CO2 in 2016 has accelerated to 3ppm, versus the previous trend of ~2ppm/year in previous decades.
Given how climate change seems to be accelerating, wouldn&#039;t it be time for scientists to recognize that the notion that we still have a &quot;carbon budget&quot; to spend during a few decades is obsolete and should be scrapped in favor of immediately declaring a climate emergency, upon which emergency public policies should be based?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: #194 Bill Henderson<br />
Bill, thanks for the three links in your comment. I had already read the imo essential article by Oliver Geden which more or less discusses the issue of &#8220;shifting baselines&#8221;. I had also read the April 2014 article by Michael Mann and a subsequent article in which he explains why atmospheric CO2 concentration of 405ppm is the real limit for a 50% chance of staying under 2C warming (includes an overshoot of approximately 0.5C due to removal of aerosols) according to the latest climate models. The paleoclimate article by Dr. James Hansen and others is I believe from 2004 (quoting from the article: &#8220;&#8230; CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385ppm to at most 350ppm&#8230;&#8221;) and the situation which he described as leading to catastrophic effects then, is nowadays much worse. The exact quote is: &#8220;Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions,<br />
for just another decade, practically eliminates the possibility of near-term return of atmospheric<br />
composition beneath the tipping level for catastrophic effects.&#8221;<br />
Needless to say, another decade has passed, we are at 405ppm in 2016, and 2014 and 2015 were the hottest years on record, while 2016 is much on track to be even hotter, and by a record margin.<br />
So the question remains: why aren&#8217;t most climate scientists declaring a climate emergency, and why aren&#8217;t most governments pushing for emergency policies to reduce carbon emissions?<br />
In particular, in his April 2014 Michael Mann states that &#8220;&#8230; I found that for an ECS of three degrees C, our planet would cross the dangerous warming threshold of two degrees C in 2036&#8230;&#8221;. But that was written practically 12 months before 2014 was declared the hottest year on record, and then 2015 became the hottest year on record, and as we all know, 2016 is on its way to become the hottest year on record, while simultaneously the increase in atmospheric CO2 in 2016 has accelerated to 3ppm, versus the previous trend of ~2ppm/year in previous decades.<br />
Given how climate change seems to be accelerating, wouldn&#8217;t it be time for scientists to recognize that the notion that we still have a &#8220;carbon budget&#8221; to spend during a few decades is obsolete and should be scrapped in favor of immediately declaring a climate emergency, upon which emergency public policies should be based?</p>
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		<title>Comment on Boomerangs versus Javelins: The Impact of Polarization on Climate Change Communication by Dan H.</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/06/boomerangs-versus-javelins-the-impact-of-polarization-on-climate-change-communication/comment-page-4/#comment-658207</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan H.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jul 2016 13:11:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19502#comment-658207</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Phil,
I think part of the problem is that some people think that the solution to all the problems is to simply reduce (eliminate) carbon dioxide emissions.  In most cases, this is not the predominate issue.  

For instance, those islands most threatened by rising seas are those that have altered vital natural barriers due to over development:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27639-small-atoll-islands-may-grow-not-sink-as-sea-levels-rise/

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054011

By many accounts, deforestation has had a much larger environmental effect than rising carbon dioxide levels:

http://www.burness.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/WHRC-Science-Update_Embargo_time.pdf

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deforestation-and-global-warming/

Where are all the politicians when it comes to combatting these issues?  Perhaps it is due to the lack of government revenue created by the various taxes.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Phil,<br />
I think part of the problem is that some people think that the solution to all the problems is to simply reduce (eliminate) carbon dioxide emissions.  In most cases, this is not the predominate issue.  </p>
<p>For instance, those islands most threatened by rising seas are those that have altered vital natural barriers due to over development:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27639-small-atoll-islands-may-grow-not-sink-as-sea-levels-rise/" rel="nofollow">https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27639-small-atoll-islands-may-grow-not-sink-as-sea-levels-rise/</a></p>
<p><a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054011" rel="nofollow">http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054011</a></p>
<p>By many accounts, deforestation has had a much larger environmental effect than rising carbon dioxide levels:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.burness.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/WHRC-Science-Update_Embargo_time.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.burness.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/WHRC-Science-Update_Embargo_time.pdf</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deforestation-and-global-warming/" rel="nofollow">http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deforestation-and-global-warming/</a></p>
<p>Where are all the politicians when it comes to combatting these issues?  Perhaps it is due to the lack of government revenue created by the various taxes.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Unforced variations: July 2016 by Not that zebra</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/07/unforced-variations-july-2016/comment-page-5/#comment-658190</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Not that zebra]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jul 2016 03:20:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19515#comment-658190</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What tools would be helpful to TV weathercasters who wanted to put the weather into a climate change context, for their audience?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What tools would be helpful to TV weathercasters who wanted to put the weather into a climate change context, for their audience?</p>
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		<title>Comment on Unforced variations: July 2016 by zebra</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/07/unforced-variations-july-2016/comment-page-4/#comment-658181</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[zebra]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jul 2016 22:56:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19515#comment-658181</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[@alfred jones 197

&quot;you know that base load is critical&quot;

I don&#039;t. In fact, I have yet to find anyone able to tell me what the &quot;baseload&quot; of my house is. Why don&#039;t you enlighten me. I am pretty capable with watts and volts and that kind of physics stuff, so don&#039;t be afraid that you will confuse me:

What is the baseload of my house? Just an approximation, based on a typical modest home, would be sufficient.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@alfred jones 197</p>
<p>&#8220;you know that base load is critical&#8221;</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t. In fact, I have yet to find anyone able to tell me what the &#8220;baseload&#8221; of my house is. Why don&#8217;t you enlighten me. I am pretty capable with watts and volts and that kind of physics stuff, so don&#8217;t be afraid that you will confuse me:</p>
<p>What is the baseload of my house? Just an approximation, based on a typical modest home, would be sufficient.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Unforced variations: July 2016 by Barton Levenson</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/07/unforced-variations-july-2016/comment-page-4/#comment-658180</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Barton Levenson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jul 2016 22:31:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19515#comment-658180</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[AJ:  As you have studied electrical supply, you know that “base-load” is critical. 

BPL:  I know that &quot;base-load&quot; is a meme fossil-fuel and nuke fans use to claim nuclear and wind can never cut it.  Sorry, I disagree.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>AJ:  As you have studied electrical supply, you know that “base-load” is critical. </p>
<p>BPL:  I know that &#8220;base-load&#8221; is a meme fossil-fuel and nuke fans use to claim nuclear and wind can never cut it.  Sorry, I disagree.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Unforced variations: July 2016 by mike</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/07/unforced-variations-july-2016/comment-page-4/#comment-658178</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mike]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jul 2016 21:46:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19515#comment-658178</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last Week
	
July 17 - 23, 2016  403.39 ppm 1 Year Ago
	
July 17 - 23, 2015  400.96 ppm  (2.43 ppm in pretty noisy number) 

AJ 197: thanks for your thoughts on that.  I agree with you, but RL is my go-to guy on heat waves, so have to wait to hear from Ray.  

Warm regards,

Mike]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last Week</p>
<p>July 17 &#8211; 23, 2016  403.39 ppm 1 Year Ago</p>
<p>July 17 &#8211; 23, 2015  400.96 ppm  (2.43 ppm in pretty noisy number) </p>
<p>AJ 197: thanks for your thoughts on that.  I agree with you, but RL is my go-to guy on heat waves, so have to wait to hear from Ray.  </p>
<p>Warm regards,</p>
<p>Mike</p>
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		<title>Comment on Boomerangs versus Javelins: The Impact of Polarization on Climate Change Communication by Kevin McKinney</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/06/boomerangs-versus-javelins-the-impact-of-polarization-on-climate-change-communication/comment-page-4/#comment-658176</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kevin McKinney]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jul 2016 20:33:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19502#comment-658176</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#166, jshaw--

&quot;The united states is the most generous country in history to help international causes.&quot;

OT, but possibly this is an indicative statement, so I&#039;ll address it briefly.

That &quot;most generous country&quot; meme is mythology that is persistent and widely believed in the US.  However, it is almost certainly not true.

In terms of public funds, it&#039;s definitely not true.  The US gives only 0.17% of GDP to Development aid, good for 20th place in the donors&#039; table; Sweden, the top donor in these terms, does better by a factor of nearly 10, at 1.4%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors

Private aid is another matter, and one in which the US does better, relatively speaking.  However, in 2002 at least, the US was still only #4 in private aid on a per capita basis, behind Norway, Switzerland, and Ireland, respectively:

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0930884.html]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#166, jshaw&#8211;</p>
<p>&#8220;The united states is the most generous country in history to help international causes.&#8221;</p>
<p>OT, but possibly this is an indicative statement, so I&#8217;ll address it briefly.</p>
<p>That &#8220;most generous country&#8221; meme is mythology that is persistent and widely believed in the US.  However, it is almost certainly not true.</p>
<p>In terms of public funds, it&#8217;s definitely not true.  The US gives only 0.17% of GDP to Development aid, good for 20th place in the donors&#8217; table; Sweden, the top donor in these terms, does better by a factor of nearly 10, at 1.4%.</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors</a></p>
<p>Private aid is another matter, and one in which the US does better, relatively speaking.  However, in 2002 at least, the US was still only #4 in private aid on a per capita basis, behind Norway, Switzerland, and Ireland, respectively:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0930884.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0930884.html</a></p>
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		<title>Comment on Boomerangs versus Javelins: The Impact of Polarization on Climate Change Communication by Kevin McKinney</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/06/boomerangs-versus-javelins-the-impact-of-polarization-on-climate-change-communication/comment-page-4/#comment-658175</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kevin McKinney]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jul 2016 20:19:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19502#comment-658175</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#169, Phil--&quot;I often wonder how the world would be if a Republican had championed climate change instead of Al Gore.&quot;

Bush I did, sort of:

http://what-when-how.com/global-warming/bush-george-h-w-administration-global-warming/]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#169, Phil&#8211;&#8220;I often wonder how the world would be if a Republican had championed climate change instead of Al Gore.&#8221;</p>
<p>Bush I did, sort of:</p>
<p><a href="http://what-when-how.com/global-warming/bush-george-h-w-administration-global-warming/" rel="nofollow">http://what-when-how.com/global-warming/bush-george-h-w-administration-global-warming/</a></p>
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		<title>Comment on Unforced variations: July 2016 by Alfred Jones</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/07/unforced-variations-july-2016/comment-page-4/#comment-658172</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alfred Jones]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jul 2016 19:16:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19515#comment-658172</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mal Adapted: Yes, Americans have enjoyed the benefit of “cheap” energy in fossil carbon. Now we know it wasn’t so cheap after all.

AJ: I wonder when we&#039;ll cross the line to where fossil fuels have cumulatively cost us more in damage than they&#039;ve saved us in low cost? In any case, we&#039;re talking about the future, not the present/past. Some of the comments seem analogous to, &quot;Without spears and bows-and-arrows, you&#039;d never have been born. In fact, the human race might have died off! Thus, we MUST use spears tomorrow!&quot; Dudes, it&#039;s IRRELEVANT whether fossil fuels were productive all the way up to this very moment. Only ten years from now counts. (It will take us ten years to ramp up whatever we do or don&#039;t)

---------

BPL, the US military decided that a triad was reasonable during the Cold War. Two things can fail, but all three at once is less likely. Of course, four or five is even better, especially when it comes to zero-carbon, since sources aren&#039;t binary. That wind farm might be putting out 25% or 100%. As you have studied electrical supply, you know that &quot;base-load&quot; is critical. And there is only one zero carbon option that is exactly suited for base-load. (Other than special cases, where a natural resource is abundant and constant, such as Niagara Falls.) I won&#039;t talk about n-word building here, but I will say that it&#039;s pure-t-stupid to decommission any reasonably safe n-word power station if there is a fossil fuel power station within the same electrical district. Germany is a good cautionary tale. Decommissioning n-words and ramping up dirty brown coal ate lots and lots of German treasure but didn&#039;t help a whit carbon-wise. They increased their emissions 1% in 2015.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/14/german-co2-emissions-rise-10-million-tonnes-in-2015/

-----------

Mike: It’s just three months of hot weather tacked on to the last 13 or 14 months of hot weather. Is this a big deal?

AJ: YES! The warmer the weather in the US and the more the Arctic sea ice melts, the more votes for sanity in November. Three months is almost exactly the amount of hot and melty weather we need! Hopefully, folks in the northern tier will be voting in shorts...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mal Adapted: Yes, Americans have enjoyed the benefit of “cheap” energy in fossil carbon. Now we know it wasn’t so cheap after all.</p>
<p>AJ: I wonder when we&#8217;ll cross the line to where fossil fuels have cumulatively cost us more in damage than they&#8217;ve saved us in low cost? In any case, we&#8217;re talking about the future, not the present/past. Some of the comments seem analogous to, &#8220;Without spears and bows-and-arrows, you&#8217;d never have been born. In fact, the human race might have died off! Thus, we MUST use spears tomorrow!&#8221; Dudes, it&#8217;s IRRELEVANT whether fossil fuels were productive all the way up to this very moment. Only ten years from now counts. (It will take us ten years to ramp up whatever we do or don&#8217;t)</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;</p>
<p>BPL, the US military decided that a triad was reasonable during the Cold War. Two things can fail, but all three at once is less likely. Of course, four or five is even better, especially when it comes to zero-carbon, since sources aren&#8217;t binary. That wind farm might be putting out 25% or 100%. As you have studied electrical supply, you know that &#8220;base-load&#8221; is critical. And there is only one zero carbon option that is exactly suited for base-load. (Other than special cases, where a natural resource is abundant and constant, such as Niagara Falls.) I won&#8217;t talk about n-word building here, but I will say that it&#8217;s pure-t-stupid to decommission any reasonably safe n-word power station if there is a fossil fuel power station within the same electrical district. Germany is a good cautionary tale. Decommissioning n-words and ramping up dirty brown coal ate lots and lots of German treasure but didn&#8217;t help a whit carbon-wise. They increased their emissions 1% in 2015.<br />
<a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/14/german-co2-emissions-rise-10-million-tonnes-in-2015/" rel="nofollow">http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/14/german-co2-emissions-rise-10-million-tonnes-in-2015/</a></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Mike: It’s just three months of hot weather tacked on to the last 13 or 14 months of hot weather. Is this a big deal?</p>
<p>AJ: YES! The warmer the weather in the US and the more the Arctic sea ice melts, the more votes for sanity in November. Three months is almost exactly the amount of hot and melty weather we need! Hopefully, folks in the northern tier will be voting in shorts&#8230;</p>
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		<title>Comment on Unforced variations: July 2016 by zebra</title>
		<link>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/07/unforced-variations-july-2016/comment-page-4/#comment-658169</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[zebra]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jul 2016 17:30:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realclimate.org/?p=19515#comment-658169</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just an observation on Mike Worst&#039;s statement that 

&quot;Without fossil fuelled energy few of those commenting here would still be alive.&quot;

It is more correct to say that few of those commenting &lt;i&gt;would ever have been born&lt;/i&gt;. And then we would have to ask: Why would that be a Bad Thing? (Nothing personal folks.)

We tend to forget that much of what makes life comfortable today was developed with a much much smaller population. Coal certainly helped in speeding up science and technology through the beginning of the 20th century, but at that point, we could have done just fine without petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; electricity and x-rays and antibiotics and computers and so on would still have developed. What we probably wouldn&#039;t have done is triple (? or quadruple?) the population. And even if we were still generating electricity with coal for a population under two billions, we wouldn&#039;t be in this pickle, would we. It would be pretty easy to fix the damage we have done.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just an observation on Mike Worst&#8217;s statement that </p>
<p>&#8220;Without fossil fuelled energy few of those commenting here would still be alive.&#8221;</p>
<p>It is more correct to say that few of those commenting <i>would ever have been born</i>. And then we would have to ask: Why would that be a Bad Thing? (Nothing personal folks.)</p>
<p>We tend to forget that much of what makes life comfortable today was developed with a much much smaller population. Coal certainly helped in speeding up science and technology through the beginning of the 20th century, but at that point, we could have done just fine without petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; electricity and x-rays and antibiotics and computers and so on would still have developed. What we probably wouldn&#8217;t have done is triple (? or quadruple?) the population. And even if we were still generating electricity with coal for a population under two billions, we wouldn&#8217;t be in this pickle, would we. It would be pretty easy to fix the damage we have done.</p>
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