Regardless of our intentions, the March of 2026 became thematic in terms of the BESA PSCRP publications: all of them focus on various aspects of the ongoing military campaigns against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran: The exchange of blows continues between Iran and its proxies on one side and the United States and Israel on the other. In the background, meanwhile, diplomatic negotiations have taken place in which the United States and Iran each declared conditions for ending the war that are totally incompatible and unacceptable to the other – essentially, each side has demanded the other’s total surrender. The signals reaching the media from within the United States government are mixed, probably testifying
On March 20, 2026, the US announced a temporary 30-day lifting of sanctions on the sale and delivery of Iranian oil. The permit applies only to oil that was already loaded onto tankers by that day, and the oil in question must be unloaded by April 19. This should not be misread as a gesture to Iran. It is intended as a means of quickly releasing tens of millions of barrels of already-purchased oil onto the global market. The object
The achievements of the joint American-Israeli Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion are fundamentally changing Iran’s strategic situation. However, several key variables remain that can affect the operation’s results. Future scenarios can include both the continuation of the existing regime and the rise of an entirely different regime in Iran. Preparations should be made now for the post-war period, including plans to enforce ceasefire terms and to resume hostilities, should either prove necessary. The international community should demand a serious agreement that
Iran’s recent missile and drone attacks across the Gulf mark a dangerous expansion of the Islamic Republic’s regional war. The Islamic Republic appears to be widening the battlefield beyond American and Israeli targets by pressuring Gulf Cooperation Council states that had previously attempted to maintain neutrality in the conflict. This strategy risks transforming potential mediators into adversaries while strengthening regional security cooperation between Israel, the United States, and Sunni Arab states. Iran’s escalation reflects internal vulnerabilities within the clerical regime,
In light of the current situation, Bar-Ilan’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies convened a special briefing with a panel of distinguished experts to discuss the strategic outlook for Iran, Israel and the Middle East.
We invite you to view the briefing at the attached link.
Thank you for standing with Bar-Ilan University and the people of Israel at such a critical moment.
In February 2026, the research by the PSCR program was focused on the dynamics in the European part of the post-Soviet space (namely, Ukraine and Belarus), the South Caucasus, and Kazakhstan.
A US strike on Iran, even one that does not result in regime change, represents a strategic opportunity that aligns well with MAGA priorities. Weakening Iran would curb the China-Russia-Iran axis, secure energy dynamics, strengthen America’s position ahead of potential conflict with China, and reduce the long-term risk of a larger global war.
In January 2025, the research papers produced by the PSCR program covered the developments in such subregions as the South Caucasus, the Baltics, Central Asia, and Russia.
After fighting for two blood-soaked years and paying a heavy price during the Swords of Iron War (the War of Revival), Israel has succeeded in achieving major military and diplomatic gains. The most significant are the restoration of Israeli deterrence by forcing the aggressor to suffer grievous losses and the major diplomatic achievement of UN Resolution 2803. This resolution grants, for the first time, legitimate status and a path to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on President Donald Trump’s “Deal
The recent US military attack on Venezuela constitutes a turning point in the evolution of the international system. Contrary to claims that such actions are now “business as usual” in an anarchic world, the Americans’ unilateral and officially acknowledged use of military force for regime change without international authorization marks a profound erosion of the post-World War II international order. Unlike Cold War-era covert interventions, the Venezuelan case signals the breakdown of a key normative barrier separating indirect influence from
In recent years, Turkey has emerged as a rising regional power. It has independent defense industries, produces armed and unarmed UAVs, missiles, warships, and advanced weapons systems, and maintains an extensive military presence from Syria to the Horn of Africa. The Turkish vision was articulated by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in his annual New Year’s address for 2026, in which he described Turkey’s military buildup as a “major leap forward” encompassing all domains of defense. Erdoğan frames this process as
